The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

Influence of exercise mode and maximal lactate-steady-state concentration on the validity of OBLA to predict maximal lactate-steady-state in active individuals

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of exercise mode on the validity of onset of blood lactate accumulation (OBLA-3.5-mM fixed blood lactate concentration) to predict the work-rate at maximal lactate steady state (MLSSwork-rate). Eleven recreationally active mates (21.3 +/- 2.9 years, 72.8 +/- 6.7 kg, 1.78 +/- 0.1 m) performed randomly incremental tests to determine OBLA (stage duration of 3 min), and 2 to 4 constants work-rate exercise tests to directly determine maximal lactate steady state parameters on a cycle-ergometer and treadmill. For both exercise modes, the OBLA was significantly correlated to MLSSwork-rate, (cycling: r = 0.81 p = 0.002; running: r = 0.94, p < 0.001). OBLA (156.2 +/- 41.3 W) was lower than MLSSwork-rate (179.6 +/- 26.4 W) during cycling exercise (p = 0.007). However, for running exercise, there was no difference between OBLA (3.2 +/- 0.6 m s(-1)) and MLSSwork-rate (3.1 +/- 0.4 m s(-1)). The difference between OBLA and MLSSworkrate on the cycle-ergometer (r = 0.86; p < 0.001) and treadmill (r = 0.64; p = 0.048) was significantly related to the specific MLSS. We can conclude that the validity of OBLA on predicting MLSSwork-rate is dependent on exercise mode and that its disagreement is related to individual variations in MLSS. (C) 2007 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.