Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Análisis estratégico del sector hotelero para el Hotel Tequendama en Bogotá

Este documento presenta un estudio del sector hotelero en Colombia, específicamente en Bogotá, donde se identificó la situación actual del mismo y cómo influye en el desarrollo de la economía y en los hoteles. Seguido a esto, mediante la realización de cuatro pruebas no económicas (análisis de hacinamiento, panorama competitivo, análisis estructural de fuerzas del mercado y estudio de competidores), que corresponden al Análisis Estructural de Sectores Estratégicos (AESE), permitió que el Hotel Tequendama (hotel de estudio) reconociera sus fortalezas y debilidades en comparación con sus competidores en pro de identificar las oportunidades que no se están atendiendo dentro del sector.

Análisis del entorno y del mercado para la puesta en marcha del plan de rebranding de un hotel de playa en Panamá: caso Sheraton Bijao Beach Resort

La cadena hotelera colombiana GHL Hoteles Ltda., obtuvo el manejo operacional de un hotel existente en Santa Clara – Panamá, para que de ésta manera soportara un cambio de marca, convirtiéndose así en un Sheraton. Con la ayuda de un gran equipo de trabajo fue posible ésta transición y actualmente se perfeccionan los detalles para cumplir con los estándares dictados y exigidos por la marca. Contando con el soporte de una oficina de mercadeo y ventas ubicada en la ciudad de Panamá, es menester respaldar todos los logros en estrategias de mercadeo y ventas para el éxito y la rentabilidad del negocio.

A importância da marca no Turismo : o Rebranding do Sana Sesimbra Hotel 4****

A dinâmica do mercado actual em constante mutação torna-o cada vez mais exigente, obrigando as empresas a acompanhar de forma constante todas estas mudanças rápidas e muitas vezes inesperadas. É neste contexto que a questão do valor da marca se torna essencial para as organizações. De forma a criar uma imagem positiva na mente dos consumidores é necessária uma gestão rigorosa da marca, cabendo aos gestores a responsabilidade de criar uma estratégia de posicionamento tendo como base a oferta de um benefício junto de todos os seus públicos-alvo, cumprindo sempre uma promessa. A marca é assim um sinal que pode representar um benefício ou uma missão de determinada empresa, distinguindo os seus produtos e serviços das empresas concorrentes. A presente dissertação expõe a concepção de um projecto real de desenvolvimento e implementação de uma estratégia de reposicionamento levada a cabo por uma organização ligada à hotelaria, tendo como objectivo a sua avaliação crítica. Esta será analisada através de apoio bibliográfico sobre a temática assim como através de entrevistas realizadas aos responsáveis do grupo e documentos por eles fornecidos. De forma a contornar a limitação do estudo sobre a impossibilidade de reunir dados primários por conta da autora, colaboradora na empresa em estudo, será analisado um site através do qual se poderá observar o grau de satisfação dos clientes antes e depois da implementação da nova estratégia. Este estudo permitirá concluir se a implementação está a ser realizada de forma correcta e de que forma poderão ser corrigidas posteriormente as anomalias ou melhorados alguns aspectos.

Predicting origins of passerines migrating through Canadian migration monitoring stations using stable-hydrogen isotope analyses of feathers: a new tool for bird conservation

The Canadian Migration Monitoring Network (CMMN) consists of standardized observation and migration count stations located largely along Canada’s southern border. A major purpose of CMMN is to detect population trends of migratory passerines that breed primarily in the boreal forest and are otherwise poorly monitored by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). A primary limitation of this approach to monitoring is that it is currently not clear which geographic regions of the boreal forest are represented by the trends generated for each bird species at each station or group of stations. Such information on “catchment areas” for CMMN will greatly enhance their value in contributing to understanding causes of population trends, as well as facilitating joint trend analysis for stations with similar catchments. It is now well established that naturally occurring concentrations of deuterium in feathers grown in North America can provide information on their approximate geographic origins, especially latitude. We used stable hydrogen isotope analyses of feathers (δ²Hf) from 15 species intercepted at 22 CMMN stations to assign approximate origins to populations moving through stations or groups of stations. We further constrained the potential catchment areas using prior information on potential longitudinal origins based upon bird migration trajectories predicted from band recovery data and known breeding distributions. We detected several cases of differences in catchment area of species passing through sites, and between seasons within species. We discuss the importance of our findings, and future directions for using this approach to assist conservation of migratory birds at continental scales.

The GlobMODEL demonstrator: assimilation of new satellite products in an operational meteorological center

As part of its Data User Element programme, the European Space Agency funded the GlobMODEL project which aimed at investigating the scientific, technical, and organizational issues associated with the use and exploitation of remotely-sensed observations, particularly from new sounders. A pilot study was performed as a "demonstrator" of the GlobMODEL idea, based on the use of new data, with a strong European heritage, not yet assimilated operationally. Two parallel assimilation experiments were performed, using either total column ozone or ozone profiles retrieved at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). In both cases, the impact of assimilating OMI data in addition to the total ozone columns from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ozone analyses was assessed by means of independent measurements. We found that the impact of OMI total columns is mainly limited to the region between 20 and 80 hPa, and is particularly important at high latitudes in the Southern hemisphere where the stratospheric ozone transport and chemical depletion are generally difficult to model with accuracy. Furthermore, the assimilation experiments carried out in this work suggest that OMI DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) total ozone columns are on average larger than SCIAMACHY total columns by up to 3 DU, while OMI total columns derived from OMI ozone profiles are on average about 8 DU larger than SCIAMACHY total columns. At the same time, the demonstrator brought to light a number of issues related to the assimilation of atmospheric composition profiles, such as the shortcomings arising when the vertical resolution of the instrument is not properly accounted for in the assimilation. The GlobMODEL demonstrator accelerated scientific and operational utilization of new observations and its results - prompted ECMWF to start the operational assimilation of OMI total column ozone data.

A new set of orthogonal patterns in weather and climate: Optimally interpolated patterns.

A new spectral-based approach is presented to find orthogonal patterns from gridded weather/climate data. The method is based on optimizing the interpolation error variance. The optimally interpolated patterns (OIP) are then given by the eigenvectors of the interpolation error covariance matrix, obtained using the cross-spectral matrix. The formulation of the approach is presented, and the application to low-dimension stochastic toy models and to various reanalyses datasets is performed. In particular, it is found that the lowest-frequency patterns correspond to largest eigenvalues, that is, variances, of the interpolation error matrix. The approach has been applied to the Northern Hemispheric (NH) and tropical sea level pressure (SLP) and to the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). Two main OIP patterns are found for the NH SLP representing respectively the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific pattern. The leading tropical SLP OIP represents the Southern Oscillation. For the Indian Ocean SST, the leading OIP pattern shows a tripole-like structure having one sign over the eastern and north- and southwestern parts and an opposite sign in the remaining parts of the basin. The pattern is also found to have a high lagged correlation with the Niño-3 index with 6-months lag.

U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model—Model Description and Basic Evaluation

This article describes the development and evaluation of the U.K.’s new High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM), which is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, known as the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1). In HiGEM, the horizontal resolution has been increased to 0.83° latitude × 1.25° longitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3° × 1/3° globally for the ocean. Multidecadal integrations of HiGEM, and the lower-resolution HadGEM, are used to explore the impact of resolution on the fidelity of climate simulations. Generally, SST errors are reduced in HiGEM. Cold SST errors associated with the path of the North Atlantic drift improve, and warm SST errors are reduced in upwelling stratocumulus regions where the simulation of low-level cloud is better at higher resolution. The ocean model in HiGEM allows ocean eddies to be partially resolved, which dramatically improves the representation of sea surface height variability. In the Southern Ocean, most of the heat transports in HiGEM is achieved by resolved eddy motions, which replaces the parameterized eddy heat transport in the lower-resolution model. HiGEM is also able to more realistically simulate small-scale features in the wind stress curl around islands and oceanic SST fronts, which may have implications for oceanic upwelling and ocean biology. Higher resolution in both the atmosphere and the ocean allows coupling to occur on small spatial scales. In particular, the small-scale interaction recently seen in satellite imagery between the atmosphere and tropical instability waves in the tropical Pacific Ocean is realistically captured in HiGEM. Tropical instability waves play a role in improving the simulation of the mean state of the tropical Pacific, which has important implications for climate variability. In particular, all aspects of the simulation of ENSO (spatial patterns, the time scales at which ENSO occurs, and global teleconnections) are much improved in HiGEM.

Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Grasshoppers and crickets (Insecta : Orthoptera) from the lower cretaceous of southern England

This is a synoptic monograph of fossil Orthoptera from the English Lower Cretaceous (Purbeck and Wealden groups). The previously described taxa of these insects are revised on the basis of type specimens and examination of extensive new material. Eight new genera and 30 new species are proposed: Probaisselcana cretacea sp. nov., Minelcana membranacea gen. et sp. nov., Panorpidium proximum sp. nov., P. bimacillatum sp. nov., ?P. parvum sp. nov. (Elcanidae); ?Cyrtophyllites cretaceus sp. nov. (Haglidae); Aenigmodus minutus gen. et sp. nov., Pseudaboilus wealdensis gen. et sp. nov., P. purbeckensis sp. nov., Tettigoilus sonorus gen. et sp. nov., ?Agrionidium obscurum sp. nov. (Prophalangopsidae); Notocearagryllus britannicus sp. nov., N. grandispeculum sp. nov., N. cordispeculum sp. nov., Anglogryllus lyristes gen. et sp. nov., A. rotundispeculum sp. nov.. Speculogryllus acutispeculum gen. et sp. nov., Sharategia davisi sp. nov., S. batchelorae sp. nov., S. baldocki sp. nov. (Baissogryllidae); ?Araripegryllus orientalis sp. nov. (Gryllidae); Deinovitimia occidentalis sp. nov. (Ensifera: infraorder incertae sedis); Cretoxya rasnitsyni gen. et sp. nov. (Tridactylidae); Locustopsis posterior sp. nov., Zeunerella prior sp. nov., Zessinia borealis sp. nov., Mesolocustopsis anglica sp. nov., M. angusta sp. nov., M. problematica sp. nov., and Britannacrida distincta gen. et sp. nov (Locustopsidae). The subfamily Baisselcaninae is synonymized with Elcaninae, and a new subfamily (Archelcaninae subfam. nov.) is proposed for a segregate of Elcaninae. A preliminary comparison of the Purbeck/Wealden with other Early Cretaceous orthopteran faunas is given. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

New beetles (Insecta : Coleoptera) from the Berriasian Purbeck Limestone Group, Dorset, UK

Four new beetle species are described from the Lower Cretaceous Purbeck Limestone Group of southern England: Mesogyrus anglicus sp. nov. (Gyrinidae), Coptoclavella purbeckensis sp. nov. (Coptoclavidae), Palaeodytes incompleta sp. nov. (Dytiscidae) and Cretorabus suleatus sp. nov. (Carabidae). The first three taxa were aquatic; the last is terrestrial but may have frequented the margins of water bodies. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

[ 1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature ( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961 - 2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold ( fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by - 3.7 and - 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm ( cold) has increased ( decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

Facklamia miroungae sp. nov., from a juvenile southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina)

An unusual gram-positive, catalase-negative, facultatively anaerobic, coccus-shaped organism that originated from a juvenile elephant seal was characterized by phenotypic and molecular taxonomic methods. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the unknown coccus represents a new subline within the genus Facklamia. The unknown strain was readily distinguishable from all currently recognized species of the genus Facklamia (Facklamia hominis, Facklamia languida, Facklamia ignava, Facklamia sourekii and Facklamia tabacinasalis) by biochemical tests and electrophoretic analysis of whole-cell proteins. Based on phylogenetic and phenotypic evidence, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium be classified as Facklamia miroungae sp. nov. The type strain of F. miroungae is CCUG 42728T (= CIP 106764T). F. miroungae is the first member of the genus Facklamia to be isolated from an animal other than man.

A new method for the determination of Holocene palaeohydrology

This paper describes a new method for the assessment of palaeohydrology through the Holocene. A palaeoclimate model was linked with a hydrological model, using a weather generator to correct bias in the rainfall estimates, to simulate the changes in the flood frequency and the groundwater response through the late Pleistocene and Holocene for the Wadi Faynan in southern Jordan, a site considered internationally important due to its rich archaeological heritage spanning the Pleistocene and Holocene. This is the first study to describe the hydrological functioning of the Wadi Faynan, a meso-scale (241 km2) semi-arid catchment, setting this description within the framework of contemporary archaeological investigations. Historic meteorological records were collated and supplemented with new hydrological and water quality data. The modelled outcomes indicate that environmental changes, such as deforestation, had a major impact on the local water cycle and this amplified the effect of the prevailing climate on the flow regime. The results also show that increased rainfall alone does not necessarily imply better conditions for farming and highlight the importance of groundwater. The discussion focuses on the utility of the method and the importance of the local hydrology to the sustained settlement of the Wadi Faynan through pre-history and history.

Antarctic air over New Zealand following vortex breakdown in 1998

An ozonesonde profile over the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) site at Lauder (45.0° S, 169.7° E), New Zealand, for 24 December 1998 showed atypically low ozone centered around 24 km altitude (600 K potential temperature). The origin of the anomaly is explained using reverse domain filling (RDF) calculations combined with a PV/O3 fitting technique applied to ozone measurements from the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. The RDF calculations for two isentropic surfaces, 550 and 600 K, show that ozone-poor air from the Antarctic polar vortex reached New Zealand on 24–26 December 1998. The vortex air on the 550 K isentrope originated in the ozone hole region, unlike the air on 600 K where low ozone values were caused by dynamical effects. High-resolution ozone maps were generated, and their examination shows that a vortex remnant situated above New Zealand was the cause of the altered ozone profile on 24 December. The maps also illustrate mixing of the vortex filaments into southern midlatitudes, whereby the overall mid-latitude ozone levels were decreased.