Supporting risk-informed decisions during business process execution

This paper proposes a technique that supports process participants in making risk-informed decisions, with the aim to reduce the process risks. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we prompt the participant with the expected risk that a given fault will occur given the particular input. These risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions and considering process data, involved resources, task durations and contextual information like task frequencies. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL system and its effectiveness evaluated. The results show that the process instances executed in the tests complete with substantially fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when taking into account the recommendations provided by our technique.

Predictive modelling : parents’ decision making to use online child health information to increase their understanding and/or diagnose or treat their child’s health

Abstract Background The quantum increases in home Internet access and available online health information with limited control over information quality highlight the necessity of exploring decision making processes in accessing and using online information, specifically in relation to children who do not make their health decisions. Objectives To understand the processes explaining parents’ decisions to use online health information for child health care. Methods Parents (N = 391) completed an initial questionnaire assessing the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control, as well as perceived risk, group norm, and additional demographic factors. Two months later, 187 parents completed a follow-up questionnaire assessing their decisions to use online information for their child’s health care, specifically to 1) diagnose and/or treat their child’s suspected medical condition/illness and 2) increase understanding about a diagnosis or treatment recommended by a health professional. Results Hierarchical multiple regression showed that, for both behaviours, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, (less) perceived risk, group norm, and (non) medical background were the significant predictors of intention. For parents’ use of online child health information, for both behaviours, intention was the sole significant predictor of behaviour. The findings explain 77% of the variance in parents’ intention to treat/diagnose a child health problem and 74% of the variance in their intentions to increase their understanding about child health concerns. Conclusions Understanding parents’ socio-cognitive processes that guide their use of online information for child health care is important given the increase in Internet usage and the sometimes-questionable quality of health information provided online. Findings highlight parents’ thirst for information; there is an urgent need for health professionals to provide parents with evidence-based child health websites in addition to general population education on how to evaluate the quality of online health information.

A flexible asset maintenance decision-making process model

Optimal Asset Maintenance decisions are imperative for efficient asset management. Decision Support Systems are often used to help asset managers make maintenance decisions, but high quality decision support must be based on sound decision-making principles. For long-lived assets, a successful Asset Maintenance decision-making process must effectively handle multiple time scales. For example, high-level strategic plans are normally made for periods of years, while daily operational decisions may need to be made within a space of mere minutes. When making strategic decisions, one usually has the luxury of time to explore alternatives, whereas routine operational decisions must often be made with no time for contemplation. In this paper, we present an innovative, flexible decision-making process model which distinguishes meta-level decision making, i.e., deciding how to make decisions, from the information gathering and analysis steps required to make the decisions themselves. The new model can accommodate various decision types. Three industrial case studies are given to demonstrate its applicability.

Intratherapist reliability in the rating of scapula posture in multiple planes of reference

Background: Evaluation of scapular posture is a fundamental component in the clinical evaluation of the upper quadrant. This study examined the intrarater reliability of scapular posture ratings. Methods: A test-retest reliability investigation was undertaken with one week between assessment sessions. At each session physical therapists conducted visual assessments of scapula posture (relative to the thorax) in five different scapula postural planes (plane of scapula, sagittal plane, transverse plane, horizontal plane, and vertical plane). These five plane ratings were performed for four different scapular posture perturbating conditions (rest, isometric shoulder; flexion, abduction, and external rotation). Results. A total of 100 complete scapular posture ratings (50 left, 50 right) were undertaken at each assessment. The observed agreement between the test and retest postural plane ratings ranged from 59% to 87%; 16 of the 20 plane-condition combinations exceeded 75% observed agreement. Kappa (and prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa) values were inconsistent across the postural planes and perturbating conditions. Conclusions: This investigation generally revealed fair to moderate intrarater reliability in the rating of scapular posture by visual inspection. However, enough disagreement between assessments was present to warrant caution when interpreting perceived changes in scapula position between longitudinal assessments using visual inspection alone.

Optimising preventive maintenance strategy for production Lines

Preventive Maintenance (PM) is often applied to improve the reliability of production lines. A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal PM decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple (imperfect) PM actions over multiple intervals. The conditional and overall reliability of the entire production line over these multiple PM intervals are hierarchically calculated using SSA, and provide a foundation for cost analysis. Both risk-related cost and maintenance-related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimised considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally, it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimise Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

Exo1 plays a major role in DNA end resection in humans and influences double-strand break repair and damage signaling decisions

The resection of DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) to generate ssDNA tails is a pivotal event in the cellular response to these breaks. In the two-step model of resection, primarily elucidated in yeast, initial resection by Mre11-CtIP is followed by extensive resection by two distinct pathways involving Exo1 or BLM/WRN-Dna2. However, resection pathways and their exact contributions in humans in vivo are not as clearly worked out as in yeast. Here, we examined the contribution of Exo1 to DNA end resection in humans in vivo in response to ionizing radiation (IR) and its relationship with other resection pathways (Mre11-CtIP or BLM/WRN). We find that Exo1 plays a predominant role in resection in human cells along with an alternate pathway dependent on WRN. While Mre11 and CtIP stimulate resection in human cells, they are not absolutely required for this process and Exo1 can function in resection even in the absence of Mre11-CtIP. Interestingly, the recruitment of Exo1 to DNA breaks appears to be inhibited by the NHEJ protein Ku80, and the higher level of resection that occurs upon siRNA-mediated depletion of Ku80 is dependent on Exo1. In addition, Exo1 may be regulated by 53BP1 and Brca1, and the restoration of resection in BRCA1-deficient cells upon depletion of 53BP1 is dependent on Exo1. Finally, we find that Exo1-mediated resection facilitates a transition from ATM- to ATR-mediated cell cycle checkpoint signaling. Our results identify Exo1 as a key mediator of DNA end resection and DSB repair and damage signaling decisions in human cells.

Fine-mapping identifies multiple prostate cancer risk loci on 5p15 some associating with TERT expression

Associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 5p15 and multiple cancer types have been reported. We have previously shown evidence for a strong association between prostate cancer (PrCa) risk and rs2242652 at 5p15, intronic in the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that encodes TERT. To comprehensively evaluate the association between genetic variation across this region and PrCa, we performed a fine-mapping analysis by genotyping 134 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array or Sequenom MassArray iPlex, followed by imputation of 1094 SNPs in 22 301 PrCa cases and 22 320 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. Multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis identified four signals in the promoter or intronic regions of TERT that independently associated with PrCa risk. Gene expression analysis of normal prostate tissue showed evidence that SNPs within one of these regions also associated with TERT expression, providing a potential mechanism for predisposition to disease.

Speaker attribution of multiple telephone conversations using a complete-linkage clustering approach

In this paper we propose and evaluate a speaker attribution system using a complete-linkage clustering method. Speaker attribution refers to the annotation of a collection of spoken audio based on speaker identities. This can be achieved using diarization and speaker linking. The main challenge associated with attribution is achieving computational efficiency when dealing with large audio archives. Traditional agglomerative clustering methods with model merging and retraining are not feasible for this purpose. This has motivated the use of linkage clustering methods without retraining. We first propose a diarization system using complete-linkage clustering and show that it outperforms traditional agglomerative and single-linkage clustering based diarization systems with a relative improvement of 40% and 68%, respectively. We then propose a complete-linkage speaker linking system to achieve attribution and demonstrate a 26% relative improvement in attribution error rate (AER) over the single-linkage speaker linking approach.

The effects of linguistic factors on student performance on economics multiple choice questions

This paper proposes a framework to analyse performance on multiple choice questions with the focus on linguistic factors. Item Response Theory (IRT) is deployed to estimate ability and question difficulty levels. A logistic regression model is used to detect Differential Item Functioning questions. Probit models testify relationships between performance and linguistic factors controlling the effects of question construction and students’ background. Empirical results have important implications. The lexical density of stems affects performance. The use of non-Economics specialised vocabulary has differing impacts on the performance of students with different language backgrounds. The IRT-based ability and difficulty help explain performance variations.

Efficient solution of multiple cracks in great number using eigen COD boundary integral equations with iteration procedure

A newly developed computational approach is proposed in the paper for the analysis of multiple crack problems based on the eigen crack opening displacement (COD) boundary integral equations. The eigen COD particularly refers to a crack in an infinite domain under fictitious traction acting on the crack surface. With the concept of eigen COD, the multiple cracks in great number can be solved by using the conventional displacement discontinuity boundary integral equations in an iterative fashion with a small size of system matrix to determine all the unknown CODs step by step. To deal with the interactions among cracks for multiple crack problems, all cracks in the problem are divided into two groups, namely the adjacent group and the far-field group, according to the distance to the current crack in consideration. The adjacent group contains cracks with relatively small distances but strong effects to the current crack, while the others, the cracks of far-field group are composed of those with relatively large distances. Correspondingly, the eigen COD of the current crack is computed in two parts. The first part is computed by using the fictitious tractions of adjacent cracks via the local Eshelby matrix derived from the traction boundary integral equations in discretized form, while the second part is computed by using those of far-field cracks so that the high computational efficiency can be achieved in the proposed approach. The numerical results of the proposed approach are compared not only with those using the dual boundary integral equations (D-BIE) and the BIE with numerical Green's functions (NGF) but also with those of the analytical solutions in literature. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed approach is verified. Numerical examples are provided for the stress intensity factors of cracks, up to several thousands in number, in both the finite and infinite plates.

Scheduling decisions and their dynamic consequences on construction performance

Construction practitioners often experience unexpected results of their scheduling-related decisions. This is mainly due to lack of understanding of the dynamic nature of construction system. However, very little attention has been given to its significant importance and few empirical studies have been undertaken on this issue. This paper, therefore, analyzes the effect of aggressive scheduling, overtime, resource adding, and schedule slippage on construction performance, focusing on workers’ reactions to those scheduling decisions. Survey data from 102 construction practitioners in 38 construction sites are used for the analysis. The results indicate that efforts to increase work rate by working overtime, resource adding, and aggressive scheduling can be offset due to losses in productivity and quality. Based on the research findings, practical guidelines are then discussed to help site managers to effectively deal with the dynamics of scheduling and improve construction performance.

Mapping of multiple quantitative trait loci affecting bovine spongiform encephalopathy

A whole-genome scan was conducted to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for BSE resistance or susceptibility. Cows from four half-sib families were included and 173 microsatellite markers were used to construct a 2835-cM (Kosambi) linkage map covering 29 autosomes and the pseudoautosomal region of the sex chromosome. Interval mapping by linear regression was applied and extended to a multiple-QTL analysis approach that used identified QTL on other chromosomes as cofactors to increase mapping power. In the multiple-QTL analysis, two genome-wide significant QTL (BTA17 and X/Y ps) and four genome-wide suggestive QTL (BTA1, 6, 13, and 19) were revealed. The QTL identified here using linkage analysis do not overlap with regions previously identified using TDT analysis. One factor that may explain the disparity between the results is that a more extensive data set was used in the present study. Furthermore, methodological differences between TDT and linkage analyses may affect the power of these approaches.

On the prediction of simultaneous inbreeding coefficients at multiple loci

A new deterministic method for predicting simultaneous inbreeding coefficients at three and four loci is presented. The method involves calculating the conditional probability of IBD (identical by descent) at one locus given IBD at other loci, and multiplying this probability by the prior probability of the latter loci being simultaneously IBD. The conditional probability is obtained applying a novel regression model, and the prior probability from the theory of digenic measures of Weir and Cockerham. The model was validated for a finite monoecious population mating at random, with a constant effective population size, and with or without selfing, and also for an infinite population with a constant intermediate proportion of selfing. We assumed discrete generations. Deterministic predictions were very accurate when compared with simulation results, and robust to alternative forms of implementation. These simultaneous inbreeding coefficients were more sensitive to changes in effective population size than in marker spacing. Extensions to predict simultaneous inbreeding coefficients at more than four loci are now possible.

Management of heterogeneous UAVs through a capability framework of UAV’s functional autonomy

An increased interest in utilising groups of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) with heterogeneous capabilities and autonomy is presenting the challenge to effectively manage such during missions and operations. This has been the focus of research in recent years, moving from a traditional UAV management paradigm of n-to-1 (n operators for one UAV, with n being at least two operators) toward 1-to-n (one operator, multiple UAVs). This paper has expanded on the authors’ previous work on UAV functional capability framework, by incorporating the concept of Functional Level of Autonomy (F-LOA) with two configurations: The lower F-LOA configuration contains sufficient information for the operator to generate solutions and make decisions to address perturbation events. Alternatively, the higher F-LOA configuration presents information reflecting on the F-LOA of the UAV, allowing the operator to interpret solutions and decisions generated autonomously, and decide whether to veto from this decision.