Optimal Capital Requirements in Financial Networks with Fire Sales

I explore and analyze a problem of finding the socially optimal capital requirements for financial institutions considering two distinct channels of contagion: direct exposures among the institutions, as represented by a network and fire sales externalities, which reflect the negative price impact of massive liquidation of assets.These two channels amplify shocks from individual financial institutions to the financial system as a whole and thus increase the risk of joint defaults amongst the interconnected financial institutions; this is often referred to as systemic risk. In the model, there is a trade-off between reducing systemic risk and raising the capital requirements of the financial institutions. The policymaker considers this trade-off and determines the optimal capital requirements for individual financial institutions. I provide a method for finding and analyzing the optimal capital requirements that can be applied to arbitrary network structures and arbitrary distributions of investment returns.

In particular, I first consider a network model consisting only of direct exposures and show that the optimal capital requirements can be found by solving a stochastic linear programming problem. I then extend the analysis to financial networks with default costs and show the optimal capital requirements can be found by solving a stochastic mixed integer programming problem. The computational complexity of this problem poses a challenge, and I develop an iterative algorithm that can be efficiently executed. I show that the iterative algorithm leads to solutions that are nearly optimal by comparing it with lower bounds based on a dual approach. I also show that the iterative algorithm converges to the optimal solution.

Finally, I incorporate fire sales externalities into the model. In particular, I am able to extend the analysis of systemic risk and the optimal capital requirements with a single illiquid asset to a model with multiple illiquid assets. The model with multiple illiquid assets incorporates liquidation rules used by the banks. I provide an optimization formulation whose solution provides the equilibrium payments for a given liquidation rule.

I further show that the socially optimal capital problem using the ``socially optimal liquidation" and prioritized liquidation rules can be formulated as a convex and convex mixed integer problem, respectively. Finally, I illustrate the results of the methodology on numerical examples and

discuss some implications for capital regulation policy and stress testing.

Parallel nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition for natural gas production network planning under uncertainty

A scenario-based two-stage stochastic programming model for gas production network planning under uncertainty is usually a large-scale nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear programme (MINLP), which can be efficiently solved to global optimality with nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition (NGBD). This paper is concerned with the parallelization of NGBD to exploit multiple available computing resources. Three parallelization strategies are proposed, namely, naive scenario parallelization, adaptive scenario parallelization, and adaptive scenario and bounding parallelization. Case study of two industrial natural gas production network planning problems shows that, while the NGBD without parallelization is already faster than a state-of-the-art global optimization solver by an order of magnitude, the parallelization can improve the efficiency by several times on computers with multicore processors. The adaptive scenario and bounding parallelization achieves the best overall performance among the three proposed parallelization strategies.

Effektiviseringsmöjligheter avseende fyllnadsgrad : En jämförande analys mellan nuläge och optimerat resultat

The study aims to provide information on efficiency opportunities on SCA's northbound cassettes. It has been made by examining the capacity utilization rate on the northbound cassettes on SCA's vessels for a period of two weeks. The cargo loaded in the ports of Rotterdam and Sheerness consists of external cargo of varying shape. The cargo is shipped northbound to Holmsund and Sundsvall. Measurements have been made on the cargo to the final destinations Sundsvall, Holmsund and Finland. The measurements have been used in a mathematical optimization model created to optimize the loading of the cassettes. The model is based on placing boxes in a grid where the boxes that are placed representing the cargo and the grids representing the cassettes. The aim of the model is to reduce the number of cassettes and thereby increase the capacity utilization rate. The study resulted in an increase in capacity utilization rate for both area and volume to all destinations. The overall improvement for all cassettes examined resulted in an increase in the area capacity utilization rate by 9.02 percentage points and 5.72 percentage points for the volume capacity utilization rate. It also resulted in a decrease of 22 cassettes in total on the four voyages that were examined which indicate that there are opportunities to improve the capacity utilization rate. The study also shows that the model can be used as a basis for similar problems.

Exact solutions to the short sea shipping distribution problem

Short sea shipping has several advantages over other means of transportation, recognized by EU members. The maritime transportation could be dealt like a combination of two well-known problems: the container stowage problem and routing planning problem. The integration of these two well-known problems results in a new problem CSSRP (Container stowage and ship routing problem) that is also an hard combinatorial optimization problem. The aim of this work is to solve the CSSRP using a mixed integer programming model. It is proved that regardless the complexity of this problem, optimal solutions could be achieved in a reduced computational time. For testing the mathematical model some problems based on real data were generated and a sensibility analysis was performed.

Solvent regeneration of activated carbon mixed-matrix membranes for the removal of micropollutants from wastewater

The constantly increasing demand of clean water has become challenging to deal with over the past years, water being an ever more precious resource. In recent times, the existing wastewater treatments had to be integrated with new steps, due to the detection of so-called organic micropollutants (OMPs). These compounds have been shown to adversely affect the environment and possibly human health, even when found in very low concentrations. In order to remove OMPs from wastewater, one possible technique is a hybrid process combining filtration and adsorption. In this work, polyethersulfone multi-channel mixed-matrix membranes with embedded powdered activated carbon (PAC) were tested to investigate the membrane’s adsorption and desorption performance. Micropollutants retention was analyzed using the pharmaceutical compounds diclofenac (DCF), paracetamol (PARA) and carbamazepine (CBZ) in filtration mode, combining the PAC adsorption process with the membrane’s ultrafiltration. Desorption performance was studied through solvent regeneration, using seven different solvents: pure water, pure ethanol, mixture of ethanol and water in different concentration, sodium hydroxide and a mixture of ethanol and sodium hydroxide. Regeneration experiments were carried out in forward-flushing. At first regeneration efficiency was investigated using a single-solute solution (diclofenac in water). The mixture Ethanol/Water (50:50) was found to be the most efficient with long-term retention of 59% after one desorption cycle. It was, therefore, later tested on a membrane previously loaded with a multi-solute solution. Three desorption cycles were performed after which, retention (after 30 min) reached values of 87% for PARA and 72% for CBZ and 55% for DCF, which indicates decent regenerability. A morphological analysis on the membranes confirmed that, in any case, the regeneration cycles did not affect either the membranes’ structure, or the content and distribution of PAC in the matrix.

Asymmetries in Adversarial Settings

Even without formal guarantees of their effectiveness, adversarial attacks against Machine Learning models frequently fool new defenses. We identify six key asymmetries that contribute to this phenomenon and formulate four guidelines to build future-proof defenses by preventing such asymmetries. We also prove that attacking a classifier is NP-complete, while defending from such attacks is Sigma_2^P-complete. We then introduce Counter-Attack (CA), an asymmetry-free metadefense that determines whether a model is robust on a given input by estimating its distance from the decision boundary. Under specific assumptions CA can provide theoretical detection guarantees. Additionally, we prove that while CA is NP-complete, fooling CA is Sigma_2^P-complete. Even when using heuristic relaxations, we show that our method can reliably identify non-robust points. As part of our experimental evaluation, we introduce UG100, a new dataset obtained by applying a provably optimal attack to six limited-scale networks (three for MNIST and three for CIFAR10), each trained in three different manners.

Design and management of a supply chain: a joint location-inventory problem under uncertainty (Part A)

In this paper, a joint location-inventory model is proposed that simultaneously optimises strategic supply chain design decisions such as facility location and customer allocation to facilities, and tactical-operational inventory management and production scheduling decisions. All this is analysed in a context of demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. While demand uncertainty stems from potential fluctuations in customer demands over time, supply-side uncertainty is associated with the risk of “disruption” to which facilities may be subject. The latter is caused by external factors such as natural disasters, strikes, changes of ownership and information technology security incidents. The proposed model is formulated as a non-linear mixed integer programming problem to minimise the expected total cost, which includes four basic cost items: the fixed cost of locating facilities at candidate sites, the cost of transport from facilities to customers, the cost of working inventory, and the cost of safety stock. Next, since the optimisation problem is very complex and the number of evaluable instances is very low, a "matheuristic" solution is presented. This approach has a twofold objective: on the one hand, it considers a larger number of facilities and customers within the network in order to reproduce a supply chain configuration that more closely reflects a real-world context; on the other hand, it serves to generate a starting solution and perform a series of iterations to try to improve it. Thanks to this algorithm, it was possible to obtain a solution characterised by a lower total system cost than that observed for the initial solution. The study concludes with some reflections and the description of possible future insights.

Fleet Management System for Search and Rescue Operations

Over one million people lost their lives in the last twenty years from natural disasters like wildfires, earthquakes and man-made disasters. In such scenarios the usage of a fleet of robots aims at the parallelization of the workload and thus increasing speed and capabilities to complete time sensitive missions. This work focuses on the development of a dynamic fleet management system, which consists in the management of multiple agents cooperating in order to accomplish tasks. We presented a Mixed Integer Programming problem for the management and planning of mission’s tasks. The problem was solved using both an exact and a heuristic approach. The latter is based on the idea of solving iteratively smaller instances of the complete problem. Alongside, a fast and efficient algorithm for estimation of travel times between tasks is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed heuristic approach is able to generate quality solutions, within specific time limits, compared to the exact one.

Investment optimization in distribution network based on fuzzy outage parameters

This paper presents a methodology that aims to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point of the electrical distribution system by identifying new investments in distribution components. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and it uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A mixed integer non-linear optimization technique is developed to identify adequate investments in distribution networks components that allow increasing the availability level for any customer in the distribution system at minimum cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.

Superefficiency and Multiplier Adjustment in Data Envelopment Analysis

Copyright © 2013 Springer Netherlands.

Multiplier adjustment in data envelopment analysis

V Congreso de Eficiencia y Productividad EFIUCO, Córdoba, 19-20 Mayo 2011.

Leilões combinados

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos Negócios

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

Solving colored nonograms

Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática