Phylodynamic modelling of foot-and-mouth disease virus sequence data

The under-reporting of cases of infectious diseases is a substantial impediment to the control and management of infectious diseases in both epidemic and endemic contexts. Information about infectious disease dynamics can be recovered from sequence data using time-varying coalescent approaches, and phylodynamic models have been developed in order to reconstruct demographic changes of the numbers of infected hosts through time. In this study I have demonstrated the general concordance between empirically observed epidemiological incidence data and viral demography inferred through analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus VP1 coding sequences belonging to the CATHAY topotype over large temporal and spatial scales. However a more precise and robust relationship between the effective population size (

Map of Tiber Creek, from its mouth to the extent of tide water : [Washington D.C.].

Covers area now occupied by the Mall.

The platt of Safford [i.e. Stafford] from the mouth of upper Machotich to the mouth of Chappawamsick /

Pen-and-ink on tracing paper, mounted on cloth.

Simulating customer experience and word-of-mouth in retail: a case study

Agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we describe the development of agent-based simulation models, designed to help to understand the relationship between people management practices and retail performance. We report on the current development of our simulation models which includes new features concerning the evolution of customers over time. To test the features we have conducted a series of experiments dealing with customer pool sizes, standard and noise reduction modes, and the spread of customers’ word of mouth. To validate and evaluate our model, we introduce new performance measure specific to retail operations. We show that by varying different parameters in our model we can simulate a range of customer experiences leading to significant differences in performance measures. Ultimately, we are interested in better understanding the impact of changes in staff behavior due to changes in store management practices. Our multi-disciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents offer potential for fostering sustainable organizational capabilities in the future.

La influencia del word of mouth electrónico sobre las ventas de un refresco

La comunicación boca-oreja/boca-boca o Word of Mouth, término adquirido del idioma anglosajón, es considerada una de las formas de comunicación con mayor influencia en el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores, jugando un importante rol en la modificación de las actitudes y patrones de consumo (Brown & Reingen, 1987). En la actualidad, los avances en la tecnología de la comunicación, han permitido que la información compartida entre consumidores supere las barreras geográficas propagándose de forma inmediata. Internet ofrece numerosas plataformas y puntos de reunión donde los consumidores pueden compartir sus visiones, preferencias o experiencia con los productos (Trusov, Bucklin, & Pauwels, 2009) El WOM que se genera en las redes sociales en Internet (eWOM) puede ser observado, medido y analizado. Debido a que estas conversaciones que se dan en plataformas de opinión quedan semi permanentemente archivadas, las marcas pueden explotar la información, extrayendo conocimiento acerca del consumidor que pueda facilitar la gestión de sus estrategias de marketing (Kozinets, Valck, Wojnicki, & Wilner, 2010). Esto ofrece grandes oportunidades para la investigación de la comunicación y el marketing permitiendo medir la repercusión de la comunicación interpersonal en el negocio de las compañías. La investigación que se plantea en esta Tesis Doctoral pretende conocer y analizar el fenómeno del WOM como factor influenciador en el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores. El objetivo principal es entender el comportamiento del WOM electrónico como variable influyente en las ventas de un producto y cuantificar su eficacia. Es decir, identificar en qué medida la información acerca de un producto compartida por los usuarios en entornos online, puede tener un efecto significativo en su resultado de ventas...

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Critical swimming speed of the southern straight-mouth nase Pseudochondrostoma willkommii (Steindachner, 1866), a potamodromous cyprinid from southern Europe.

Critical swimming speed (Ucrit) of the potamodromous southern straight-mouth nase was assessed in a modified Blazka-type swim tunnel. Forty-one P. willkommii were tested and exhibited a mean± SD Ucrit of 0.54 ± 0.07 m/s. The sex of experimental fish had no effect on Ucrit but a significant positive relationship was found between swimming performance and the body condition of tested fish. Results from this study can be used to improve the current design of fish passes targeting this, or similar, potamodromous fish species.

Mapping the likelihood of foot-and-mouth disease introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay.

The objective of this work was to apply fuzzy majority multicriteria group decision?making to determine risk areas for foot?and?mouth disease (FMD) introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay. The study was conducted in three municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, located along the border with Paraguay. Four scenarios were built, applying the following linguistic quantifiers to describe risk factors: few, half, many, and most. The three criteria considered to be most likely to affect the vulnerability to introduction of FMD, according to experts? opinions, were: the introduction of animals in the farm, the distance from the border, and the type of property settlements. The resulting maps show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the risk of FMD introduction. The used methodology brings out a new approach that can be helpful to policy makers in the combat and eradication of FMD.

Temporomandibular Dysfunction Post-craniotomy: Evaluation Between Pre- And Post-operative Status.

To identify risk factors associated with post-operative temporomandibular joint dysfunction after craniotomy. The study sample included 24 patients, mean age of 37.3 ± 10 years; eligible for surgery for refractory epilepsy, evaluated according to RDC/TMD before and after surgery. The primary predictor was the time after the surgery. The primary outcome variable was maximal mouth opening. Other outcome variables were: disc displacement, bruxism, TMJ sound, TMJ pain, and pain associated to mandibular movements. Data analyses were performed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. The maximal mouth opening was significantly reduced after surgery in all patients (p = 0.03). In the multiple regression model, time of evaluation and pre-operative bruxism were significantly (p < .05) associated with an increased risk for TMD post-surgery. A significant correlation between surgery follow-up time and maximal opening mouth was found. Pre-operative bruxism was associated with increased risk for temporomandibular joint dysfunction after craniotomy.

Direct Adhesive Pin-retained Restorations For Severely Worn Dentition Treatment: A 1.5-year Follow-up Report.

Excessive occlusal surface wear can result in occlusal disharmony, functional and esthetic impairment. As a therapeutic approach, conventional single crowns have been proposed, but this kind of treatment is complex, highly invasive and expensive. This case report describes the clinical outcomes of an alternative minimally invasive treatment based on direct adhesive-pin retained restorations. A 64-year-old woman with severely worn dentition, eating problems related to missing teeth and generalized tooth hypersensitivity was referred for treatment. Proper treatment planning based on the diagnostic wax-up simulation was used to guide the reconstruction of maxillary anterior teeth with direct composite resin over self-threading dentin pins. As the mandibular remaining teeth were extremely worn, a tooth-supported overdenture was installed. A stabilization splint was also used to protect the restorations. This treatment was a less expensive alternative to full-mouth rehabilitation with positive esthetic and functional outcomes after 1.5 years of follow-up.

Mastication Movements And Sleep Quality Of Patients With Myofascial Pain: Occlusal Device Therapy Improvements.

Patients with myofascial pain experience impaired mastication, which might also interfere with their sleep quality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the jaw motion and sleep quality of patients with myofascial pain and the impact of a stabilization device therapy on both parameters. Fifty women diagnosed with myofascial pain by the Research Diagnostic Criteria were enrolled. Pain levels (visual analog scale), jaw movements (kinesiography), and sleep quality (Epworth Sleepiness Scale; Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index) were evaluated before (control) and after stabilization device use. Range of motion (maximum opening, right and left excursions, and protrusion) and masticatory movements during Optosil mastication (opening, closing, and total cycle time; opening and closing angles; and maximum velocity) also were evaluated. Repeated-measures analysis of variance in a generalized linear mixed models procedure was used for statistical analysis (α=.05). At baseline, participants with myofascial pain showed a reduced range of jaw motion and poorer sleep quality. Treatment with a stabilization device reduced pain (P<.001) and increased both mouth opening (P<.001) and anteroposterior movement (P=.01). Also, after treatment, the maximum opening (P<.001) and closing (P=.04) velocities during mastication increased, and improvements in sleep scores for the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (P<.001) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (P=.04) were found. Myofascial pain impairs jaw motion and quality of sleep; the reduction of pain after the use of a stabilization device improves the range of motion and sleep parameters.

National Institutes Of Health Consensus Development Project On Criteria For Clinical Trials In Chronic Graft-versus-host Disease: I. The 2014 Diagnosis And Staging Working Group Report.

The 2005 National Institutes of Health (NIH) Consensus Conference proposed new criteria for diagnosing and scoring the severity of chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). The 2014 NIH consensus maintains the framework of the prior consensus with further refinement based on new evidence. Revisions have been made to address areas of controversy or confusion, such as the overlap chronic GVHD subcategory and the distinction between active disease and past tissue damage. Diagnostic criteria for involvement of mouth, eyes, genitalia, and lungs have been revised. Categories of chronic GVHD should be defined in ways that indicate prognosis, guide treatment, and define eligibility for clinical trials. Revisions have been made to focus attention on the causes of organ-specific abnormalities. Attribution of organ-specific abnormalities to chronic GVHD has been addressed. This paradigm shift provides greater specificity and more accurately measures the global burden of disease attributed to GVHD, and it will facilitate biomarker association studies.

Prognostic Impact Of Perineural Invasion And Lymphovascular Invasion In Advanced Stage Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Perineural invasion (PNI) and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) have been associated with the risk of local recurrences and lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of PNI and LVI in patients with advanced stage squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth. One hundred and forty-two patients without previous treatment were selected. These patients underwent radical surgery with neck dissection and adjuvant treatment. Clinicopathological data were retrieved from the medical charts, including histopathology and surgery reports. Univariate analysis was performed to assess the impact of studied variables on survival. Overall survival was negatively influenced by six tumour-related factors: increasing T stage (P = 0.003), more than two clinically positive nodes (P = 0.002), extracapsular spread of lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001), tumour thickness (P = 0.04), PNI (P < 0.001), and LVI (P = 0.012). Disease-free survival was influenced by PNI (P = 0.04), extracapsular spread of lymph node metastasis (P = 0.008), and N stage (P = 0.006). Multivariate analysis showed PNI to be an independent predictor for overall survival (P = 0.01) and disease-free survival (P = 0.03). Thus the presence of PNI in oral carcinoma surgical specimens has a significant impact on survival outcomes in patients with advanced stage tumours submitted to radical surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy/radiochemotherapy.

Salivary Bpifa1 (splunc1) And Bpifa2 (splunc2 A) Are Modified By Head And Neck Cancer Radiotherapy.

To determine the effects of radiotherapy on salivary BPIFA expression and to investigate the role of BPIFA in the development of known radiotherapy side effects. Unstimulated whole-mouth saliva was collected from 45 cancer patients (1 week before treatment, during the treatment, and 1 week after completion of radiotherapy) and from 20 controls. BPIFA1 and BPIFA2 expression was detected by western blotting and analyzed along with clinicopathologic data and side effects from the radiotherapy. A facial radiation field was associated with lower salivary flow during and after radiotherapy and correlated with side effects, mainly mucositis. Salivary BPIFA1 expression levels were similar between the control group and the patient group before treatment. On the other hand, BPIFA2 levels were higher in the patient group before treatment compared with the control group. BPIFA concentration was modified by radiotherapy as BPIFA1 levels increased (P = .0081) and BPIFA2 decreased (P < .0001). Higher levels of BPIFA1 were associated with the presence of mucositis (P = .0363) and its severity (P = .0500). The present study found that levels of BPIFA1 and glycosylated forms of BPIFA2 are affected by radiotherapy, suggesting that these proteins may play a role in the oral microenvironment in irradiated patients with head and neck cancer.

Quality evaluation of DNA obtained from stored human saliva and its applicability to identification in Forensic Dentistry

PURPOSE: This study evaluated the quality of DNA obtained from stored human saliva and its applicability to human identification. METHODS: The saliva samples of 20 subjects, collected in the form of saliva in natura and from mouth swabs and stored at -20ºC, were analyzed. After 7 days, the DNA was extracted from the 40 saliva samples and subjected to PCR and electrophoresis. After 180 days, the technique was repeated with the 20 swab samples. RESULTS: The first-stage results indicated that DNA was successfully extracted in 97.5% of reactions, 95% of saliva in natura and 100% of swab saliva samples, with no statistically significant difference between the forms of saliva. In the second phase, the result was positive for all 20 analyzed samples (100%). Subsequently, in order to analyze the quality of the DNA obtained from human saliva, the SIX3-2 gene was tested on the 20 mouth swab samples, and the PCR products were digested using the MbO1 restriction enzyme to evaluate polymorphisms in the ADRA-2 gene, with positive results for most samples. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that the quantity and quality of DNA from saliva and the techniques employed are adequate for forensic analysis of DNA.