Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland. RESULTS: In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Three-dimensional printing of models for preoperative planning and simulation of transcatheter valve replacement

In this study, we show the use of three-dimensional printing models for preoperative planning of transcatheter valve replacement in a patient with an extreme porcelain aorta. A 70-year-old man with severe aortic stenosis and a porcelain aorta was referred to our center for transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Unfortunately, the patient died after the procedure because of a potential ischemic event. Therefore, we decided to fabricate three-dimensional models to evaluate the potential effects of these constructs for previous surgical planning and simulation of the transcatheter valve replacement.

Modeling And Predicting The Performance Of Infiltrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Anodes

Fuel cells are a topic of high interest in the scientific community right now because of their ability to efficiently convert chemical energy into electrical energy. This thesis is focused on solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) because of their fuel flexibility, and is specifically concerned with the anode properties of SOFCs. The anodes are composed of a ceramic material (yttrium stabilized zirconia, or YSZ), and conducting material. Recent research has shown that an infiltrated anode may offer better performance at a lower cost. This thesis focuses on the creation of a model of an infiltrated anode that mimics the underlying physics of the production process. Using the model, several key parameters for anode performance are considered. These are the initial volume fraction of YSZ in the slurry before sintering, the final porosity of the composite anode after sintering, and the size of the YSZ and conducting particles in the composite. The performance measures of the anode, namely percolation threshold and effective conductivity, are analyzed as a function of these important input parameters. Simple two and three-dimensional percolation models are used to determine the conditions at which the full infiltrated anode would be investigated. These more simple models showed that the aspect ratio of the anode has no effect on the threshold or effective conductivity, and that cell sizes of 303 are needed to obtain accurate conductivity values. The full model of the infiltrated anode is able to predict the performance of the SOFC anodes and it can be seen that increasing the size of the YSZ decreases the percolation threshold and increases the effective conductivity at low conductor loadings. Similar trends are seen for a decrease in final porosity and a decrease in the initial volume fraction of YSZ.

The discovery of new 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 inhibitors by common feature pharmacophore modeling and virtual screening

11beta-Hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (11beta-HSD) enzymes catalyze the conversion of biologically inactive 11-ketosteroids into their active 11beta-hydroxy derivatives and vice versa. Inhibition of 11beta-HSD1 has considerable therapeutic potential for glucocorticoid-associated diseases including obesity, diabetes, wound healing, and muscle atrophy. Because inhibition of related enzymes such as 11beta-HSD2 and 17beta-HSDs causes sodium retention and hypertension or interferes with sex steroid hormone metabolism, respectively, highly selective 11beta-HSD1 inhibitors are required for successful therapy. Here, we employed the software package Catalyst to develop ligand-based multifeature pharmacophore models for 11beta-HSD1 inhibitors. Virtual screening experiments and subsequent in vitro evaluation of promising hits revealed several selective inhibitors. Efficient inhibition of recombinant human 11beta-HSD1 in intact transfected cells as well as endogenous enzyme in mouse 3T3-L1 adipocytes and C2C12 myotubes was demonstrated for compound 27, which was able to block subsequent cortisol-dependent activation of glucocorticoid receptors with only minor direct effects on the receptor itself. Our results suggest that inhibitor-based pharmacophore models for 11beta-HSD1 in combination with suitable cell-based activity assays, including such for related enzymes, can be used for the identification of selective and potent inhibitors.

Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China

A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.

Modeling and classifying variable width riparian zones utilizing digital elevation models, flood height data, digital soil data and national wetlands inventory : a new approach for riparian zone delineation

Riparian zones are dynamic, transitional ecosystems between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems with well defined vegetation and soil characteristics. Development of an all-encompassing definition for riparian ecotones, because of their high variability, is challenging. However, there are two primary factors that all riparian ecotones are dependent on: the watercourse and its associated floodplain. Previous approaches to riparian boundary delineation have utilized fixed width buffers, but this methodology has proven to be inadequate as it only takes the watercourse into consideration and ignores critical geomorphology, associated vegetation and soil characteristics. Our approach offers advantages over other previously used methods by utilizing: the geospatial modeling capabilities of ArcMap GIS; a better sampling technique along the water course that can distinguish the 50-year flood plain, which is the optimal hydrologic descriptor of riparian ecotones; the Soil Survey Database (SSURGO) and National Wetland Inventory (NWI) databases to distinguish contiguous areas beyond the 50-year plain; and land use/cover characteristics associated with the delineated riparian zones. The model utilizes spatial data readily available from Federal and State agencies and geospatial clearinghouses. An accuracy assessment was performed to assess the impact of varying the 50-year flood height, changing the DEM spatial resolution (1, 3, 5 and 10m), and positional inaccuracies with the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) streams layer on the boundary placement of the delineated variable width riparian ecotones area. The result of this study is a robust and automated GIS based model attached to ESRI ArcMap software to delineate and classify variable-width riparian ecotones.

Development and simulation of DSP filters for transformer differential protection / by Oskar Reynisson.

Transformer protection is one of the most challenging applications within the power system protective relay field. Transformers with a capacity rating exceeding 10 MVA are usually protected using differential current relays. Transformers are an aging and vulnerable bottleneck in the present power grid; therefore, quick fault detection and corresponding transformer de-energization is the key element in minimizing transformer damage. Present differential current relays are based on digital signal processing (DSP). They combine DSP phasor estimation and protective-logic-based decision making. The limitations of existing DSP-based differential current relays must be identified to determine the best protection options for sensitive and quick fault detection. The development, implementation, and evaluation of a DSP differential current relay is detailed. The overall goal is to make fault detection faster without compromising secure and safe transformer operation. A detailed background on the DSP differential current relay is provided. Then different DSP phasor estimation filters are implemented and evaluated based on their ability to extract desired frequency components from the measured current signal quickly and accurately. The main focus of the phasor estimation evaluation is to identify the difference between using non-recursive and recursive filtering methods. Then the protective logic of the DSP differential current relay is implemented and required settings made in accordance with transformer application. Finally, the DSP differential current relay will be evaluated using available transformer models within the ATP simulation environment. Recursive filtering methods were found to have significant advantage over non-recursive filtering methods when evaluated individually and when applied in the DSP differential relay. Recursive filtering methods can be up to 50% faster than non-recursive methods, but can cause false trip due to overshoot if the only objective is speed. The relay sensitivity is however independent of filtering method and depends on the settings of the relay’s differential characteristics (pickup threshold and percent slope).

ELECTRICITY GENERATION MODELING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECASTS IN CHINA

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECOCAR 3 PROPOSAL AND GUIDELINES FOR MODELING AND DESIGN IN YEAR ONE OF ECOCAR 3

This report summarizes the work done for the Vehicle Powertrain Modeling and Design Problem Proposal portion of the EcoCAR3 proposal as specified in the Request for Proposal from Argonne National Laboratory. The results of the modeling exercises presented in the proposal showed that: An average conventional vehicle powered by a combustion engine could not meet the energy consumption target when the engine was sized to meet the acceleration target, due the relatively low thermal efficiency of the spark ignition engine. A battery electric vehicle could not meet the required range target of 320 km while keeping the vehicle weight below the gross vehicle weight rating of 2000 kg. This was due to the low energy density of the batteries which necessitated a large, and heavy, battery pack to provide enough energy to meet the range target. A series hybrid electric vehicle has the potential to meet the acceleration and energy consumption parameters when the components are optimally sized. A parallel hybrid electric vehicle has less energy conversion losses than a series hybrid electric vehicle which results in greater overall efficiency, lower energy consumption, and less emissions. For EcoCAR3, Michigan Tech proposes to develop a plug-in parallel hybrid vehicle (PPHEV) powered by a small Diesel engine operating on B20 Bio-Diesel fuel. This architecture was chosen over other options due to its compact design, lower cost, and its ability to provide performance levels and energy efficiency that meet or exceed the design targets. While this powertrain configuration requires a more complex control system and strategy than others, the student engineering team at Michigan Tech has significant recent experience with this architecture and has confidence that it will perform well in the events planned for the EcoCAR3 competition.