Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Solar PV Powered Air Conditioner Analysis for an Office/Classroom in a Tropical Climate

This thesis focuses on using photovoltaic produced electricity to power air conditioners in a tropical climate. The study takes place in Surabaya, Indonesia at two different locations the classroom, located at the UBAYA campus and the home office, 10 km away. Indonesia has an average solar irradiation of about 4.8 kWh/m²/day (PWC Indonesia, 2013) which is for ideal conditions for these tests. At the home office, tests were conducted on different photovoltaic systems. A series of measuring devices recorded the performance of the 800 W PV system and the consumption of the 1.35 kW air conditioner (cooling capacity). To have an off grid system many of the components need to be oversized. The inverter has to be oversized to meet the startup load of the air conditioner, which can be 3 to 8 times the operating power (Rozenblat, 2013). High energy consumption of the air conditioner would require a large battery storage to provide one day of autonomy. The PV systems output must at least match the consumption of the air conditioner. A grid connect system provides a much better solution with the 800 W PV system providing 80 % of the 3.5 kWh load of the air conditioner, the other 20 % coming from the grid during periods of low irradiation. In this system the startup load is provided by the grid so the inverter does not need to be oversized. With the grid-connected system, the PV panel’s production does not need to match the consumption of the air conditioner, although a smaller PV array will mean a smaller percentage of the load will be covered by PV. Using the results from the home office tests and results from measurements made in the classroom. Two different PV systems (8 kW and 12 kW) were simulated to power both the current air conditioners (COP 2.78) and new air conditioners (COP 4.0). The payback period of the systems can vary greatly depending on if a feed in tariff is awarded or not. If the feed in tariff is awarded the best system is the 12 kW system, with a payback period of 4.3 years and a levelized cost of energy at -3,334 IDR/kWh. If the feed in tariff is not granted then the 8 kW system is the best choice with a lower payback period and lower levelized cost of energy than the 12 kW system under the same conditions.

Isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains from dental office environments and units in Barretos, state of São Paulo, Brazil, and analysis of their susceptibility to antimicrobial drugs

Uma ampla variedade de patógenos oportunistas tem sido detectadas nos tubos de alimentação de água dos equipos odontológicos, particularmente no biofilme formado na superfície do tubo. Entre os patógenos oportunistas encontrados nos tubos de água, Pseudomonas aeruginosa é reconhecida como uma das principais causadoras de infecções nosocomiais. Foram coletadas 160 amostras de água e 200 amostras de fomites em quarenta clinicas odontológicas na cidade de Barretos, São Paulo, Brasil, durante o período de Janeiro a Julho de 2005. Setenta e seis cepas de P. aeruginosa, isoladas a partir dos fomites (5 cepas) e das amostras de água (71 cepas), foram analisadas quanto à susceptibilidade à seis drogas antimicrobianas freqüentemente utilizadas para o tratamento de infecções provocadas por P. aeruginosa. As principais suscetibilidades observadas foram para a ciprofloxacina, seguida pelo meropenem. A necessidade de um mecanismo efetivo para reduzir a contaminação bacteriana dentro dos tubos de alimentação de água dos equipos odontológicos foi enfatizada, e o risco da exposição ocupacional e infecção cruzada na prática odontológica, em especial quando causada por patógenos oportunistas como a P. aeruginosa foi realçado.

Penetration of 38% hydrogen peroxide into the pulp chamber in bovine and human teeth submitted to office bleach technique

This study evaluated the pulp chamber penetration of peroxide bleaching agent in human and bovine teeth after office bleach technique. All the teeth were sectioned 3 mm apical of the cement-enamel junction and were divided into 2 groups, A (70 third human molars) and B (70 bovine lateral incisors), that were subdivided into A1 and B1 restored by using composite resin, A2 and B2 by using glass ionomer cement, and A3 and B3 by using resin-modified glass ionomer cement; A4, A5, B4, and B5 were not restored. Acetate buffer was placed in the pulp chamber, and the bleaching agent was applied for 40 minutes as follows: A1-A4 and B1-B4, 38% hydrogen peroxide exposure and A5 and B5, immersion into distilled water. The buffer solution was transferred to a glass tube in which leuco crystal violet and horseradish peroxidase were added, producing a blue solution. The optical density of the blue solution was determined by spectrophotometer and converted into microgram equivalents of hydrogen peroxide. Data were submitted to analysis of variance and Dunnett, Kruskal-Wallis, and Tukey tests (5%). A higher level of hydrogen peroxide penetrated into the pulp chamber in resin-modified glass ionomer cements in bovine (0.79 +/- 0.61 mu g) and human (2.27 +/- 0.41 mu g) groups. The bleaching agent penetration into the pulp chamber was higher in human teeth for any experimental situation. The penetration of the hydrogen peroxide depends on restorative materials, and under the conditions of this study human teeth are more susceptible to penetration of bleaching agent into the pulp chamber than bovine teeth.

Biosecurity in public and private office

Biosecurity is currently a concern for all health-related services, including dentistry, since infection control has a relevant importance. In dental practice, health-related occupations have contact with a great number of individuals who are potentially capable to transmit pathogens. This study comprised a descriptive evaluation of the universal precaution measures for infection control adopted by dental practitioners working at public and private offices in the city of Araçatuba, SP. Data collection was performed by a quiz with questions about individual and collective protection equipments. The results showed that the use of caps was reported by 55% of the professionals working at the public sector and 90% for the private sector. The use of masks and gloves was reported by all professionals surveyed; nevertheless, glove change between patients was not reported by 40% of professionals working at the public sector. There were more flaws in public offices as to the use of protective barriers, since except for the use of gloves, gowns and masks, the frequency of use of those barriers was smaller than at private offices.

Methodology of CO2 emission evaluation in the life cycle of office building facades

The construction industry is one of the greatest sources of pollution because of the high level of energy consumption during its life cycle. In addition to using energy while constructing a building, several systems also use power while the building is operating, especially the air-conditioning system. Energy consumption for this system is related, among other issues, to external air temperature and the required internal temperature of the building. The facades are elements which present the highest level of ambient heat transfer from the outside to the inside of tall buildings. Thus, the type of facade has an influence on energy consumption during the building life cycle and, consequently, contributes to buildings' CO2 emissions, because these emissions are directly connected to energy consumption. Therefore, the aim is to help develop a methodology for evaluating CO2 emissions generated during the life cycle of office building facades. The results, based on the parameters used in this study, show that facades using structural glazing and uncolored glass emit the most CO2 throughout their life cycle, followed by brick facades covered with compound aluminum panels or ACM (Aluminum Composite Material), facades using structural glazing and reflective glass and brick facades with plaster coating. On the other hand, the typology of facade that emits less CO2 is brickwork and mortar because its thermal barrier is better than structural glazing facade and materials used to produce this facade are better than brickwork and ACM. Finally, an uncertainty analysis was conducted to verify the accuracy of the results attained. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System and its impact on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions treated in a University Hospital: a research study

Abstract Background The public health system of Brazil is structured by a network of increasing complexity, but the low resolution of emergency care at pre-hospital units and the lack of organization of patient flow overloaded the hospitals, mainly the ones of higher complexity. The knowledge of this phenomenon induced Ribeirão Preto to implement the Medical Regulation Office and the Mobile Emergency Attendance System. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of these services on the gravity profile of non-traumatic afflictions in a University Hospital. Methods The study conducted a retrospective analysis of the medical records of 906 patients older than 13 years of age who entered the Emergency Care Unit of the Hospital of the University of São Paulo School of Medicine at Ribeirão Preto. All presented acute non-traumatic afflictions and were admitted to the Internal Medicine, Surgery or Neurology Departments during two study periods: May 1996 (prior to) and May 2001 (after the implementation of the Medical Regulation Office and Mobile Emergency Attendance System). Demographics and mortality risk levels calculated by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were determined. Results From 1996 to 2001, the mean age increased from 49 ± 0.9 to 52 ± 0.9 (P = 0.021), as did the percentage of co-morbidities, from 66.6 to 77.0 (P = 0.0001), the number of in-hospital complications from 260 to 284 (P = 0.0001), the mean calculated APACHE II mortality risk increased from 12.0 ± 0.5 to 14.8 ± 0.6 (P = 0.0008) and mortality rate from 6.1 to 12.2 (P = 0.002). The differences were more significant for patients admitted to the Internal Medicine Department. Conclusion The implementation of the Medical Regulation and Mobile Emergency Attendance System contributed to directing patients with higher gravity scores to the Emergency Care Unit, demonstrating the potential of these services for hierarchical structuring of pre-hospital networks and referrals.

Compendio sugli strumenti di navigazione aerea. Ricerca di equivalenti interlinguistici dal francese in italiano, russo e bulgaro, in collaborazione con l'Office Quebecois de la langue francaise e l'Université de Laval.

Questa tesi di laurea magistrale ha come obiettivo quello di individuare gli equivalenti interlinguistici in bulgaro, italiano e russo dei concetti trattati nel compendio sugli strumenti di navigazione aerea redatto dall'Office Québécois de la Langue Française. Nel primo capitolo verranno brevemente presentati gli strumenti di navigazione e le tecniche di navigazione. Ci si soffermerà poi sull'istituzione dell'OACI (Organizzazione dell'Aviazione Civile Internazionale), sugli obiettivi e sui metodi della ricerca terminologica di questa tesi. Nel secondo capitolo verrà descritto il compendio sugli strumenti di navigazione aerea e illustrata la sua origine; si parlerà del soggiorno presso l'OQLF e l'Università di Laval e saranno presentati i collaboratori che hanno partecipato alla realizzazione di questa tesi. Il terzo capitolo si propone di illustrare le fonti utilizzate per la ricerca terminologica e di comparare i risultati ottenuti. Le fonti di cui si è usufruito hanno una natura, un pubblico, autori e obbiettivi molto diversi fra loro e ci si vuole interrogare quindi sulla possibilità di conciliazione di queste differenze per la redazione di un glossario multilingue. Nel capitolo quarto, dopo una breve riflessione sulla politica editoriale adottata, sarà esposto il database realizzato nelle tre lingue di lavoro (bulgaro, italiano e russo). Alcune note forniscono le indicazioni necessarie per comprendere come si è agito nei confronti del documento preesistente, redatto in francese ed in inglese e come questo abbia influenzato le decisioni prese sugli equivalenti delle lingue di lavoro. Il capitolo quinto vuol invece esporre le difficoltà incontrate in fieri e le strategie usate per ovviare a queste problematiche. Ci si soffermerà ancora una volta sulle fonti e sulla loro affidabilità, alla luce dei risultati ottenuti e della riflessione condotta a posteriori. Infine, saranno proposte delle riflessioni conclusive sul lavoro svolto, sugli obbiettivi iniziali e il lavoro finale.

Why do walk-in patients prefer a busy urban emergency department during office hours? A pilot survey of 200 consecutive patients from Switzerland

In Switzerland, more and more patients go directly to the emergency department, bypassing general practitioners. However, a mixture of non-urgent walk-in patients and acute emergencies in the same emergency department can inevitably make it more difficult to provide genuine emergencies with rapid treatment, leading to deterioration in the quality of emergency services, and tending to increase on-floor mortality and morbidity, together with higher overall costs.