Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

Biogeographic analysis of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Examining the refuge effect following reserve establishment

Almost 120 days at sea aboard three NOAA research vessels and one fishing vessel over the past three years have supported biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve (TER). This work initiated measurement of post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. In Tortugas South, seafloor transect surveys were conducted using divers, towed operated vehicles (TOV), remotely operated vehicles (ROV), various sonar platforms, and the Deepworker manned submersible. ARGOS drifter releases, satellite imagery, ichthyoplankton surveys, sea surface temperature, and diver census were combined to elucidate potential dispersal of fish spawning in this environment. Surveys are being compiled into a GIS to allow resource managers to gauge benthic resource status and distribution. Drifter studies have determined that within the ~ 30 days of larval life stage for fishes spawning at Tortugas South, larvae could reach as far downstream as Tampa Bay on the west Florida coast and Cape Canaveral on the east coast. Together with actual fish surveys and water mass delineation, this work demonstrates that the refuge status of this area endows it with tremendous downstream spillover and larval export potential for Florida reef habitats and promotes the maintenance of their fish communities. In Tortugas North, 30 randomly selected, permanent stations were established. Five stations were assigned to each of the following six areas: within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling north of the prevailing currents (Park North); within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling south of the prevailing currents (Park South); within the Ecological Reserve falling north of the prevailing currents (Reserve North); within the Ecological Reserve falling south of the prevailing currents (Reserve South); within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling north of the prevailing currents (Out North); and within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling south of the prevailing currents (Out South). Intensive characterization of these sites was conducted using multiple sonar techniques, TOV, ROV, diver-based digital video collection, diver-based fish census, towed fish capture, sediment particle-size, benthic chlorophyll analyses, and stable isotope analyses of primary producers, fish, and, shellfish. In order to complement and extend information from studies focused on the coral reef, we have targeted the ecotone between the reef and adjacent, non-reef habitats as these areas are well-known in ecology for indicating changes in trophic relationships at the ecosystem scale. Such trophic changes are hypothesized to occur as top-down control of the system grows with protection of piscivorous fishes. Preliminary isotope data, in conjunction with our prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be the source of a significant amount of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER and downstream throughout the range of larval fish dispersal. Therefore, the status and influence of the previously neglected, non-reef habitat within the refuge (comprising ~70% of TER) appears to be intimately tied to the health of the coral reef community proper. These data, collected in a biogeographic context, employing an integrated Before-After Control Impact design at multiple spatial scales, leave us poised to document and quantify the postimplementation effects of TER. Combined with the work at Tortugas South, this project represents a multi-disciplinary effort of sometimes disparate disciplines (fishery oceanography, benthic ecology, food web analysis, remote sensing/geography/landscape ecology, and resource management) and approaches (physical, biological, ecological). We expect the continuation of this effort to yield critical information for the management of TER and the evaluation of protected areas as a refuge for exploited species. (PDF contains 32 pages.)

Survey of fishes and water properties of south San Francisco Bay, California, 1973-82

The objective of this study was to describe the physical and ichthyological changes occurring seasonally and annually in the south San Francisco Bay, based on the results of 2,561 otter trawl and water samples obtained between February 1973 and June 1982. Temperature varied predictably among seasons in a pattern that varied little between years. Salinity also underwent predictable seasonal changes but the pattern varied substantially between years. The most abundant species of fish were northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), English sole (Parophrys vetulus), and shiner surfperch (Cymatogaster aggregata). The majority of the common fish species were most abundant during wet years and least abundant in dry years. Numeric diversity was highest during the spring and early summer, with no detectable interannual trends. Species composition changed extensively between seasons and between years, particularly years with extremely high or extremely low freshwater inflows. All the common species exhibited clustered spatial distributions. Such spatial clustering could affect the interpretation of data from estuarine sampling programs. Gobies (Family Gobiidae) were more abundant during flood tides than during ebb tides. English sole were significantly more abundant in shallower areas. Shiner surfperch showed significant differences in abundance between sample areas.(PDF file contains 28 pages.)

Widow rockfish: Proceedings of a workshop, Tiburon, California, December 11-12, 1980

This workshop was organized because of the increase between 1978 and 1980 in coastwide landings of widow rockfish, from less than 1,000 mt to more than 20,000 mt, and because of scientists' concern with the lack of knowledge both of the fishery and biology of the species. Most scientists active in research on Pacific groundfish, as well as some members of the fishing industry and fishery managers, attended the workshop. These proceedings contain the report of the workshop discussion panel, status reports on California, Oregon, and Washington fisheries through 1980, and a collection of seven papers presented at the workshop. The status reports provide an historical perspective of the development of an important fishery. The papers present a fairly complete survey of biological knowledge of widow rockfish, economic status of the fishery, and fishery-independent methods for estimation of abundance. The papers also contain some information developed after the workshop. Since the workshop, the fishery has matured. Largest landings were made in 1981, when more than 28,000 mt were landed. Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is estimated to be slightly less than 10,000 mt, and the stock appeared to be at about the MSY level in 1985. The Pacific Fishery Management Council and National Marine Fisheries Service have implemented regulations that have maintained landings since 1983 at approximately the maximum sustainable yield level. Fishery-dependent stock assessments are being made on an annual basis for the Pacific Fishery Management Council. While these assessments are considered to be the best possible with available data, scientists responsible for the assessment have chosen to delay their publication in the formal scientific literature until more data are obtained. However, the stock assessment reports are available from the Pacific Fishery Management Council. In addition to the papers in this collection, three papers have been published on widow rockfish since 1980. BoehIert, Barss, and Lamberson (1982) estimate fecundity of the species off Oregon; Gunderson (1984) describes the fishery and management actions; and Laroche and Richardson (1981) describe the morphology and distribution of juvenile widow rockfish off Oregon. During the past decade, the fishery for widow rockfish has developed from a minor fishery to one of the more important on the Pacific Coast. Our knowledge of the biology and dynamics of the species has progressed from minimal to relatively extensive for a groundfish species. It is our intention in preparing this collection of papers to make this knowledge readily available to the scientific community. (PDF file contains 63 pages.)

The potential impact of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) on fisheries

The commercial development of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) operations will involve some environmental perturbations for which there is no precedent experience. The pumping of very large volumes of warm surface water and cold deep water and its subsequent discharge will result in the impingement, entrainment, and redistribution of biota. Additional stresses to biota will be caused by biocide usage and temperature depressions. However, the artificial upwelling of nutrients associated with the pumping of cold deep water, and the artificial reef created by an OTEC plant may have positive effects on the local environment. Although more detailed information is needed to assess the net effect of an OTEC operation on fisheries, certain assumptions and calculations are made supporting the conclusion that the potential risk to fisheries is not significant enough to deter the early development of IDEe. It will be necessary to monitor a commercial-scale plant in order to remove many of the remaining uncertainties. (PDF file contains 39 pages.)

Synopsis of biological data on shortnose sturgeon, Acipenser brevirostrum LeSueur 1818

Information on the biology and populations of the shortnose sturgeon, Acipenser brevirostrum, is compiled, reviewed, and analyzed in the FAO species synopsis style. New information indicates this species exhibits biological and life-cycle differences over its north-south latitudinal range and that it is more abundant than previously thought. (PDF file contains 51 pages.)

Taxonomy of North American fish Eimeriidae

Taxonomic descriptions, line drawings, and references are given for the 30 named and 5 unnamed species of North American fish Eimeriidae. In addition, a key was developed based on available morphologic data to distinguish between similar species. Taxa are divided into two genera: Eimeria (27 species) which are tetr&sporocystic with dizoic, nonbivalved sporocysts, and Goussia (3 species) which are tetrasporocystic with dizoic, bivalved sporocysts that lack Stleda bodies and have sporocyst walls composed of two longitudinal valves. (PDF file contains 24 pages.)

Culturable fish seeds in Nigerian waters: A research survey (1978-1985)

The desired species identified in this survey include mullets, catfishes, fast growing fish predators, species for control of weeds and grass it, ponds, cichlids and shrimps. Five coastal states: Lagos, Ondo, Bendel, Rivers, and Cross River were covered in the studies. Investigations were also carried into the major rivers and their tributaries. A combination of the estimation methods of Le Cren, (1962) and Pitcher and Mac Donald (1973) was employed in the analysis of data. From the detailed data collected from (1978-1985), the survey indicated that about 100 million fish seeds can be collected annually from Nigerian waters using appropriate gear-seine nets, cast nets, and fish traps. Of this number, 60% is available along the coastal belt of the country while 40% is in the major rivers, their tributaries and swamps. At the present level of fish culture development in Nigeria, this is more than enough, even after allowing for 50% mortality due to handling and transportation stress

Topics in linear and nonlinear dispersive waves

The various singularities and instabilities which arise in the modulation theory of dispersive wavetrains are studied. Primary interest is in the theory of nonlinear waves, but a study of associated questions in linear theory provides background information and is of independent interest.

The full modulation theory is developed in general terms. In the first approximation for slow modulations, the modulation equations are solved. In both the linear and nonlinear theories, singularities and regions of multivalued modulations are predicted. Higher order effects are considered to evaluate this first order theory. An improved approximation is presented which gives the true behavior in the singular regions. For the linear case, the end result can be interpreted as the overlap of elementary wavetrains. In the nonlinear case, it is found that a sufficiently strong nonlinearity prevents this overlap. Transition zones with a predictable structure replace the singular regions.

For linear problems, exact solutions are found by Fourier integrals and other superposition techniques. These show the true behavior when breaking modulations are predicted.

A numerical study is made for the anharmonic lattice to assess the nonlinear theory. This confirms the theoretical predictions of nonlinear group velocities, group splitting, and wavetrain instability, as well as higher order effects in the singular regions.

Nonlinear dispersive waves in nonlinear optics

A study is made of solutions of the macroscopic Maxwell equations in nonlinear media. Both nonlinear and dispersive terms are responsible for effects that are not taken into account in the geometrical optics approximation. The nonlinear terms can, depending on the nature of the nonlinearity, cause plane waves to focus when the amplitude varies across the wavefront. The dispersive terms prevent the singularities that nonlinearity alone would produce. Solutions are found which de scribe periodic plane waves in fully nonlinear media. Equations describing the evolution of the amplitude, frequency and wave number are generated by means of averaged Lagrangian techniques. The equations are solved for near linear media to produce the form of focusing waves which develop a singularity at the focal point. When higher dispersion is included nonlinear and dispersive effects can balance and one finds amplitude profiles that propagate with straight rays.

Improving the chances for developing coastal country success in adapting to climate change

There is an unequivocal scientific consensus that increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere drive warming temperatures of air and sea, and acidification of the world’s oceans from carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans. These changes in turn can induce shifts in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and severe extreme weather events (e.g. storms and sea surge). All of these impacts are already being witnessed in the world’s coastal regions and are projected to intensify in years to come. Taken together, these impacts are likely to result in significant alteration of natural habitats and coastal ecosystems, and increased coastal hazards in low-lying areas. They can affect fishers, coastal communities and resource users, recreation and tourism, and coastal infrastructure. Approaches to planned adaptation to these impacts can be drawn from the lessons and good practices from global experience in Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). The recently published USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change (USAID 2009) is directed at practitioners, development planners, and coastal management professionals in developing countries. It offers approaches for assessing vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in communities and outlines how to develop and implement adaptation measures at the local and national levels. Six best practices for coastal adaptation are featured in the USAID Guidebook on Adapting to Coastal Climate Change and summarized in the following sections. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Concerted action for successful coastal communities in Tanzania: Lessons from the Tanzania Coastal Management Partnership (TCMP) 2006-2009

The Tanzania Coastal Management Partnership (TCMP) works to implement the National Integrated Coastal Environmental Management Strategy (ICEMS) in Tanzania’s coastal landscapes and seascapes, funded in large measure by the U.S. Agency for International Development. The overarching goal of the Sustainable Coastal Communities and Ecosystems in Tanzania (SUCCESS Tanzania) initiative is to conserve coastal and marine biodiversity while improving the well being of coastal residents through implementation of the Tanzania ICEMS and related ICM policies and strategies. It does this by focusing on three key results: -Policies and Laws that Integrate Conservation and Development Applied -Participatory Landscape Scale Conservation Practiced -Conservation Enterprises Generate Increased and Equitable Benefits from Sustainable Use An additional result sought in the program is gender equity and HIV/AIDS preventive behaviors promoted through communicating HIV/AIDS, environment, and equity messages. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal Affects Environmental: presented at American Society of Civil Engineers National Water Resources Engineering Meeting, Phoenix, Arizona, 14 January 1971

The Chesapeake and Delaware Canal is a man-made waterway connecting the upper Chesapeake Bay with the Delaware Bay. It started in 1829 as a private barge canal with locks, two at the Delaware end, and one at the Chesapeake end. For the most part, natural tidal and non-tidal waterways were connected by short dredged sections to form the original canal. In 1927, the C and D Canal was converted to a sea-level canal, with a controlling depth of 14 feet, and a width of 150 feet. In 1938 the canal was deepened to 27 feet, with a channel width of 250 feet. Channel side slopes were dredged at 2.5:1, thus making the total width of the waterway at least 385 feet in those segments representing new cuts or having shore spoil area dykes rising above sea level. In 1954 Congress authorized a further enlargement of the Canal to a depth of 35 feet and a channel width of 450 feet. (pdf contains 27 pages)

Part I. Influence of membrane morphology on ion-exchange and charge propagation in composite polyelectrolyte electrode coatings. Part II. Dynamic surface tension measurements of polarization relaxation at mercury pool electrodes by the method of Wilhelmy.

Part I. Novel composite polyelectrolyte materials were developed that exhibit desirable charge propagation and ion-retention properties. The morphology of electrode coatings cast from these materials was shown to be more important for its electrochemical behavior than its chemical composition.

Part II. The Wilhelmy plate technique for measuring dynamic surface tension was extended to electrified liquid-liquid interphases. The dynamical response of the aqueous NaF-mercury electrified interphase was examined by concomitant measurement of surface tension, current, and applied electrostatic potential. Observations of the surface tension response to linear sweep voltammetry and to step function perturbations in the applied electrostatic potential (e.g., chronotensiometry) provided strong evidence that relaxation processes proceed for time-periods that are at least an order of magnitude longer than the time periods necessary to establish diffusion equilibrium. The dynamical response of the surface tension is analyzed within the context of non-equilibrium thermodynamics and a kinetic model that requires three simultaneous first order processes.