Predicción espacio-temporal de la irradiancia solar global a corto plazo en España mediante geoestadística y redes neuronales artificiales

El enriquecimiento del conocimiento sobre la Irradiancia Solar (IS) a nivel de superficie terrestre, así como su predicción, cobran gran interés para las Energías Renovables (ER) - Energía Solar (ES)-, y para distintas aplicaciones industriales o ecológicas. En el ámbito de las ER, el uso óptimo de la ES implica contar con datos de la IS en superficie que ayuden tanto, en la selección de emplazamientos para instalaciones de ES, como en su etapa de diseño (dimensionar la producción) y, finalmente, en su explotación. En este último caso, la observación y la predicción es útil para el mercado energético, la planificación y gestión de la energía (generadoras y operadoras del sistema eléctrico), especialmente en los nuevos contextos de las redes inteligentes de transporte. A pesar de la importancia estratégica de contar con datos de la IS, especialmente los observados por sensores de IS en superficie (los que mejor captan esta variable), estos no siempre están disponibles para los lugares de interés ni con la resolución espacial y temporal deseada. Esta limitación se une a la necesidad de disponer de predicciones a corto plazo de la IS que ayuden a la planificación y gestión de la energía. Se ha indagado y caracterizado las Redes de Estaciones Meteorológicas (REM) existentes en España que publican en internet sus observaciones, focalizando en la IS. Se han identificado 24 REM (16 gubernamentales y 8 redes voluntarios) que aglutinan 3492 estaciones, convirtiéndose éstas en las fuentes de datos meteorológicos utilizados en la tesis. Se han investigado cinco técnicas de estimación espacial de la IS en intervalos de 15 minutos para el territorio peninsular (3 técnicas geoestadísticas, una determinística y el método HelioSat2 basado en imágenes satelitales) con distintas configuraciones espaciales. Cuando el área de estudio tiene una adecuada densidad de observaciones, el mejor método identificado para estimar la IS es el Kriging con Regresión usando variables auxiliares -una de ellas la IS estimada a partir de imágenes satelitales-. De este modo es posible estimar espacialmente la IS más allá de los 25 km identificados en la bibliografía. En caso contrario, se corrobora la idoneidad de utilizar estimaciones a partir de sensores remotos cuando la densidad de observaciones no es adecuada. Se ha experimentado con el modelado de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) para la predicción a corto plazo de la IS utilizando observaciones próximas (componentes espaciales) en sus entradas y, los resultados son prometedores. Así los niveles de errores disminuyen bajo las siguientes condiciones: (1) cuando el horizonte temporal de predicción es inferior o igual a 3 horas, las estaciones vecinas que se incluyen en el modelo deben encentrarse a una distancia máxima aproximada de 55 km. Esto permite concluir que las RNA son capaces de aprender cómo afectan las condiciones meteorológicas vecinas a la predicción de la IS. ABSTRACT ABSTRACT The enrichment of knowledge about the Solar Irradiance (SI) at Earth's surface and its prediction, have a high interest for Renewable Energy (RE) - Solar Energy (SE) - and for various industrial and environmental applications. In the field of the RE, the optimal use of the SE involves having SI surface to help in the selection of sites for facilities ES, in the design stage (sizing energy production), and finally on their production. In the latter case, the observation and prediction is useful for the market, planning and management of the energy (generators and electrical system operators), especially in new contexts of smart transport networks (smartgrid). Despite the strategic importance of SI data, especially those observed by sensors of SI at surface (the ones that best measure this environmental variable), these are not always available to the sights and the spatial and temporal resolution desired. This limitation is bound to the need for short-term predictions of the SI to help planning and energy management. It has been investigated and characterized existing Networks of Weather Stations (NWS) in Spain that share its observations online, focusing on SI. 24 NWS have been identified (16 government and 8 volunteer networks) that implies 3492 stations, turning it into the sources of meteorological data used in the thesis. We have investigated five technical of spatial estimation of SI in 15 minutes to the mainland (3 geostatistical techniques and HelioSat2 a deterministic method based on satellite images) with different spatial configurations. When the study area has an adequate density of observations we identified the best method to estimate the SI is the regression kriging with auxiliary variables (one of them is the SI estimated from satellite images. Thus it is possible to spatially estimate the SI beyond the 25 km identified in the literature. Otherwise, when the density of observations is inadequate the appropriateness is using the estimates values from remote sensing. It has been experimented with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modeling for predicting the short-term future of the SI using observations from neighbor’s weather stations (spatial components) in their inputs, and the results are promising. The error levels decrease under the following conditions: (1) when the prediction horizon is less or equal than 3 hours the best models are the ones that include data from the neighboring stations (at a maximum distance of 55 km). It is concluded that the ANN is able to learn how weather conditions affect neighboring prediction of IS at such Spatio-temporal horizons.

Optimización de aperturas mediante técnicas de algoritmos evolutivos

Los sistemas de imagen por ultrasonidos son hoy una herramienta indispensable en aplicaciones de diagnóstico en medicina y son cada vez más utilizados en aplicaciones industriales en el área de ensayos no destructivos. El array es el elemento primario de estos sistemas y su diseño determina las características de los haces que se pueden construir (forma y tamaño del lóbulo principal, de los lóbulos secundarios y de rejilla, etc.), condicionando la calidad de las imágenes que pueden conseguirse. En arrays regulares la distancia máxima entre elementos se establece en media longitud de onda para evitar la formación de artefactos. Al mismo tiempo, la resolución en la imagen de los objetos presentes en la escena aumenta con el tamaño total de la apertura, por lo que una pequeña mejora en la calidad de la imagen se traduce en un aumento significativo del número de elementos del transductor. Esto tiene, entre otras, las siguientes consecuencias: Problemas de fabricación de los arrays por la gran densidad de conexiones (téngase en cuenta que en aplicaciones típicas de imagen médica, el valor de la longitud de onda es de décimas de milímetro) Baja relación señal/ruido y, en consecuencia, bajo rango dinámico de las señales por el reducido tamaño de los elementos. Complejidad de los equipos que deben manejar un elevado número de canales independientes. Por ejemplo, se necesitarían 10.000 elementos separados λ 2 para una apertura cuadrada de 50 λ. Una forma sencilla para resolver estos problemas existen alternativas que reducen el número de elementos activos de un array pleno, sacrificando hasta cierto punto la calidad de imagen, la energía emitida, el rango dinámico, el contraste, etc. Nosotros planteamos una estrategia diferente, y es desarrollar una metodología de optimización capaz de hallar de forma sistemática configuraciones de arrays de ultrasonido adaptados a aplicaciones específicas. Para realizar dicha labor proponemos el uso de los algoritmos evolutivos para buscar y seleccionar en el espacio de configuraciones de arrays aquellas que mejor se adaptan a los requisitos fijados por cada aplicación. En la memoria se trata el problema de la codificación de las configuraciones de arrays para que puedan ser utilizados como individuos de la población sobre la que van a actuar los algoritmos evolutivos. También se aborda la definición de funciones de idoneidad que permitan realizar comparaciones entre dichas configuraciones de acuerdo con los requisitos y restricciones de cada problema de diseño. Finalmente, se propone emplear el algoritmo multiobjetivo NSGA II como herramienta primaria de optimización y, a continuación, utilizar algoritmos mono-objetivo tipo Simulated Annealing para seleccionar y retinar las soluciones proporcionadas por el NSGA II. Muchas de las funciones de idoneidad que definen las características deseadas del array a diseñar se calculan partir de uno o más patrones de radiación generados por cada solución candidata. La obtención de estos patrones con los métodos habituales de simulación de campo acústico en banda ancha requiere tiempos de cálculo muy grandes que pueden hacer inviable el proceso de optimización con algoritmos evolutivos en la práctica. Como solución, se propone un método de cálculo en banda estrecha que reduce en, al menos, un orden de magnitud el tiempo de cálculo necesario Finalmente se presentan una serie de ejemplos, con arrays lineales y bidimensionales, para validar la metodología de diseño propuesta comparando experimentalmente las características reales de los diseños construidos con las predicciones del método de optimización. ABSTRACT Currently, the ultrasound imaging system is one of the powerful tools in medical diagnostic and non-destructive testing for industrial applications. Ultrasonic arrays design determines the beam characteristics (main and secondary lobes, beam pattern, etc...) which assist to enhance the image resolution. The maximum distance between the elements of the array should be the half of the wavelength to avoid the formation of grating lobes. At the same time, the image resolution of the target in the region of interest increases with the aperture size. Consequently, the larger number of elements in arrays assures the better image quality but this improvement contains the following drawbacks: Difficulties in the arrays manufacturing due to the large connection density. Low noise to signal ratio. Complexity of the ultrasonic system to handle large number of channels. The easiest way to resolve these issues is to reduce the number of active elements in full arrays, but on the other hand the image quality, dynamic range, contrast, etc, are compromised by this solutions In this thesis, an optimization methodology able to find ultrasound array configurations adapted for specific applications is presented. The evolutionary algorithms are used to obtain the ideal arrays among the existing configurations. This work addressed problems such as: the codification of ultrasound arrays to be interpreted as individuals in the evolutionary algorithm population and the fitness function and constraints, which will assess the behaviour of individuals. Therefore, it is proposed to use the multi-objective algorithm NSGA-II as a primary optimization tool, and then use the mono-objective Simulated Annealing algorithm to select and refine the solutions provided by the NSGA I I . The acoustic field is calculated many times for each individual and in every generation for every fitness functions. An acoustic narrow band field simulator, where the number of operations is reduced, this ensures a quick calculation of the acoustic field to reduce the expensive computing time required by these functions we have employed. Finally a set of examples are presented in order to validate our proposed design methodology, using linear and bidimensional arrays where the actual characteristics of the design are compared with the predictions of the optimization methodology.

(Table 8.4, Page 220-223) Chemical composition of different growth structures of manganese nodules, SONNE cruise SO78

In the nodule field of the Peru Basin, situated south of the zone of high bioproductivity, a relatively high flux of biogenic matter explains a distinct redox boundary at about 10 cm depth separating very soft oxic surface sediments from stiffer suboxic sediments. Maximum abundance (50 kg/m**2) of diagenetic nodules is found near the calcite compensation depth (CCD), currently at 4250 m. There, the accretion rate of nodules is much higher (100 mm/Ma) than on ridges (5 mm/Ma). Highest accretion rates are found at the bottom of large nodules that repeatedly sink to a level immediately above the redox boundary. There, distinct diagenetic growth conditions prevail and layers of dense laminated Mn oxide of very pure todorokite are formed. The layering of nodules is mainly the result of organisms moving nodules within the oxic surface sediment from diagenetic to hydrogenetic environments. The frequency of such movements is much higher than that of climatic changes. Two types of nodule burial occur in the Peru Basin. Large nodules are less easily moved by organisms and become buried. Consequently, buried nodules generally are larger than surface nodules. This type of burial predominates in basins. At ridges where smaller nodules prevail, burial is mainly controlled by statistical selection where some nodules are not moved up by organisms.

Description of, and 238U, 234U, 232Th and 230Th measurements on a nodule from R/V Sonne station SO79_62KD, Central East Pacific Ocean

Two diagenetic manganese nodules from the Peru Basin were investigated by thermal ionization mass spectrometry and high resolution alpha spectrometry for uranium and thorium. The TIMS concentrations for nodule 62KD (63KG) vary as follows: 0.12-1.01 ppb (0.06-0.59) 230Th, 0.51-1.98 ppm (0.43-1.40) 232Th, 0.13-0.80 ppb (0.09-0.49) 234U, and 1.95-13.47 ppm (1.66-8.24) 238U. Both nodules have average growth rates of ~110 mm per million years. However, from the variations of excess 230Th with depth we estimate partial accumulation rates which range from 50 to 400 mm per million years. The 234U dating method cannot be applied due to remobilization of U from the sediment and subsequent incorporation into the nodules' crystal lattice, reflected by decay corrected 234U values far above the ocean water value. Sections of fast nodule growth are related to those layers having high Mn/Fe ratios (up to 200) and higher densities. As a possible explanation we develop a scenario that describes similar glacial/interglacial trends in both nodules as a record of regional changes of sediment and/or deep water chemistry.

Geochemical data for drilled powder samples from two fossil Porites corals from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310

Fossil corals are unique archives of past seasonal climate variability, providing vital information about seasonal climate phenomena such as ENSO and monsoons. However, submarine diagenetic processes can potentially obscure the original climate signals and lead to false interpretations. Here we demonstrate the potential of laser ablation ICP-MS to rapidly detect secondary aragonite precipitates in fossil Porites colonies recovered by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 310 from submerged deglacial reefs off Tahiti. High resolution (100 µm) measurements of coralline B/Ca, Mg/Ca, S/Ca, and U/Ca ratios are used to distinguish areas of pristine skeleton from those afflicted with secondary aragonite. Measurements of coralline Sr/Ca, U/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios, from areas identified as pristine, reveal that the seasonal range of sea surface temperature in the tropical south Pacific during the last deglaciation (14.7 and 11 ka) was similar to that of today.

Structure and chemistry of TECHNO encrustations

Using as a starting point the results giving 'traditional' growth rates as determined by the decrease of radioelements (part I) and the hypothesis of rapid formation, the different mineralogical, structure and chemical characteristics of the sample have been studied to try to understand the possible mode of formation of this encrustation. A rapid formation would account for (1) the very peculiar structure of the sample composed of oriented botryoids and the bundle-like structure of the outermost oxide layer; (2) the fact that this sample represents a substitution of a preexisting hyaloclastite; (3) the different chemical gradients, mainly iron, thorium and uranium; (4) the fact that this sample which cannot have been maintained at the sediment-water interface by bioturbation is not covered by a great thickness of sediments. On the other hand, an unsolved problem remains: Why different radionuclides used for dating give growth rates of the same order of magnitude and different 'exposition ages'.

(Table 1) Compositional variation with depth in a nodule of sediment sample RVG-10D

A detailed study of a nodule from the Somali Basin dated by 230Thexcess was correlated with the paleoceanographic events recorded in Site 236 (Leg 24) Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) cores. Tentative indications are that the phase of nodule accretion starting with the development of pillar structure at a depth of 20 mm in the nodule around 13 Ma coincides with increased Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) flow and an elevated calciumcarbonate compensation depth (CCD). The Late Miocene lowering of the CCD is represented by the mottled zones between 8 and 18 mm in the nodule is characterised by an abundant silicate component (>20%) of aeolian origin. The Miocene/Pliocene boundary (5 Ma) occurs at a depth of about 8 mm and is represented by the development of pillar structure and a minimum of aeolian dust (10.3%). The increased biological productivity of the Somali surface water since the Middle Miocene is demonstrated by the increasing Corg content of the nodule (from 0.11 to 0.19%) towards its surface.