Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to test the intertemporal risk-return relation for 13 European stock markets. We identify country specific, euro area, and global macro-finance factors to determine the conditional risk and return. Empirically, the risk- return trade-off is generally negative. However, a Markov switching model documents that there is time-variation in this trade-off that is linked to the state of the economy. Keywords: Risk-return trade-off; Dynamic factor model; Macro-finance predictors; European stock markets; Markov switching model JEL Classifications: C22; G11; G12; G17

Analyzing Carbon Trade Permits in Optimization Framework

The threats caused by global warming motivate different stake holders to deal with and control them. This Master's thesis focuses on analyzing carbon trade permits in optimization framework. The studied model determines optimal emission and uncertainty levels which minimize the total cost. Research questions are formulated and answered by using different optimization tools. The model is developed and calibrated by using available consistent data in the area of carbon emission technology and control. Data and some basic modeling assumptions were extracted from reports and existing literatures. The data collected from the countries in the Kyoto treaty are used to estimate the cost functions. Theory and methods of constrained optimization are briefly presented. A two-level optimization problem (individual and between the parties) is analyzed by using several optimization methods. The combined cost optimization between the parties leads into multivariate model and calls for advanced techniques. Lagrangian, Sequential Quadratic Programming and Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm are referred to. The role of inherent measurement uncertainty in the monitoring of emissions is discussed. We briefly investigate an approach where emission uncertainty would be described in stochastic framework. MATLAB software has been used to provide visualizations including the relationship between decision variables and objective function values. Interpretations in the context of carbon trading were briefly presented. Suggestions for future work are given in stochastic modeling, emission trading and coupled analysis of energy prices and carbon permits.

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15

Tríade de Carney

The authors present a case of an incomplete form of Carney's Triad .They emphasize the use of immunohistochemistry to classify gastrointestinal stromal tumors and policy of long term follow-up .

Abuses in the Poultry Trade

18 x 25 cm

A new climatic periodisation of the Gold and Guinea Coasts in West Africa, 1750-1798 : a reconstruction of the climate during the slave trade era, including an analysis of the climatically facilitated Trans-Atlantic slave trade

Avsikten med studien är att producera den första rekonstruktionen av det västafrikanska klimatet mellan 1750 och 1798. Kunskapen om det västafrikanska klimatet före 1800-talet är till dags dato bristfällig, vilket gör det svårare att förstå framtida klimatvariationer. Det är bristen på instrumentell meteorologisk data (temperatur, regnmängd, och lufttryck), vilket i princip bara täcker det senaste århundradet, som är orsaken till att tidigare klimat är bristfälligt kartlagda. Klimatet och miljön är även sådana att proxydata från ’naturens arkiv’ (såsom t.ex. trädringar) har begränsad användning. Således är historiska dokument, främst från gästande kulturer/nationer/intressenter, innehållande deskriptiv information om vädret och klimatet, klimatforskarens viktigaste källa. Genom att använda tidigare, för det här syftet, oanvända källor påvisade den här undersökningen att klimatet i västra Afrika och Guldkusten (Ghana) har ändrats sedan 1700-talet. Monsunregnen var svagare och kortvarigare, speciellt den sekundära regnperioden under hösten var betydligt svagare än idag. Det förekom kraftiga årliga variationer i monsunregnen, men sett ur längre tidsperspektiv utmärktes torrare och blötare perioder. Studien kunde också visa en viss korrelation mellan det globala väderfenomenet El Niño och regnperiodens intensitet längs med kusten. Flera torrperioder sammanföll med tidigare registrerade El Niño sekvenser. Speciellt slutet av 1760-talet påverkades kraftigt av El Niño och även det globala klimatet verkar ha genomgått graftiga förändringar just dessa år. På basis av den nya klimatrekonstruktionen genomfördes också en jämförelse av klimatets inverkan på den transatlantiska slavhandeln från 1750 till 1798, en fråga som historikerna gjort anspelningar på i över 30 år. Utförseln av slavar från västra Afrika var som kraftigast under 1700-talets andra hälft. Analysen visade att slavhandeln delvis tilltog i samband med klimatanomalierna.

Parasites of the freshwater fish trade in Brazil: science metric study

This paper presents a science metric study of parasites of fish farming in Brazil, including a significant review of the literature. The methodology used was based on researching articles in three different databases, carried out ​on May 2012: ISI (Institute for Scientific Information), SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library Online), and Google Academic. The number of articles on fish parasites is mounting (currently over 110), having much increased since 1995. However, the quantity is still low compared with the amount of papers on parasites of fish from natural environments. In Brazil, the farmed fish that have been studied the most are pacu, tilapia and tambaqui. Monogeneans represent the most prevalent group, followed by protozoa and crustaceans. The regions most researched were the southeast and south, making up 84% of the total literature. The main issue addressed in articles was pathology, followed by treatment and record. In conclusion, the treatment of parasitic diseases of farmed fish in Brazil is still incipient, highlighting the importance and usefulness of management practices to prevent the occurrence of health problems.

Stop bugging me! : diversity in appearance of warning coloration

In nature, many animals use body coloration to communicate with each other. For example, colorations can be used as signals between individuals of the same species, but also to recognise individuals of other species, and if they may comprise a threat or not. Many animals use protective coloration to avoid predation. The two most common strategies of protective coloration are camouflage and aposematism. Camouflaged animals have coloration that minimises detection, usually by matching colours or structures in the background. Aposematic animals, on the other hand, signal to predators that they are defended. The defence can be physical structures, such as spikes and hairs, or chemical compounds that make the animal distasteful or even deadly toxic. In order for the warning signal to be effective, the predator has to recognise it as such. Studies have shown that birds for example, that are important visual predators on insects, learn to recognise and avoid unpalatable prey faster if they contrast the background or have large internal contrasts. Typical examples of aposematic species have conspicuous colours like yellow, orange or red, often in combination with black. My thesis focuses on the appearance and function of aposematic colour patterns. Even though researchers have studied aposematism for over a century, there is still a lot we do not know about the phenomenon. For example, as it is crucial that the predators recognise a warning signal, aposematic colorations should assumingly evolve homogeneously and be selected for maximal conspicuousness. Instead, there is an extensive variation of colours and patterns among warning colorations, and it is not uncommon to find typical cryptic colours, such as green and brown in aposematic colour patterns. One hypothesis to this variation is that an aposematic coloration does not have to be maximally signalling in order to be effective, instead it is sufficient to have distinct features that can be easily distinguished from edible prey. To be maximally conspicuous is one way to achieve this, but not the only way. Another hypothesis is that aposematic prey that do not exhibit maximal conspicuousness can exploit both camouflage and aposematism in a distance-dependent fashion, by being signalling when seen close up but camouflaged at a distance. Many prey animals also make use of both strategies by shifting colour at different ecological conditions such as seasonal variations, fluctuations in food resources or between life stages. Yet another explanation for the variation may be that prey animals are usually exposed to several predator species that vary in visual perception and tolerance towards various toxins. The aim with this thesis is, by studying their functions, to understand why aposematic warning signals vary in appearance, specifically in the level of conspicuousness, and if warning coloration can be combined with camouflage. In paper I, I investigated if the colour pattern of the aposematic larva of the Apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo) can switch function with viewing distance, and be signalling at close range but camouflaged at a distance, by comparing detection time between different colour variants and distances. The results show that the natural coloration has a dual distance-dependent function. Moreover, the study shows that an aposematic coloration does not have to be selected for maximal conspicuousness. A prey animal can optimise its coloration primarily by avoiding detection, but also by investing in a secondary defence, which presence can be signalled if detected. In paper II, I studied how easily detected the coloration of the firebug (Pyrrhocoris apterus), a typical aposematic species, is at different distances against different natural backgrounds, by comparing detection time between different colour variants. Here, I found no distance-dependent switch in function. Instead, the results show that the coloration of the firebug is selected for maximal conspicuousness. One explanation for this is that the firebug is more mobile than the butterfly larva in study I, and movement is often incompatible with efficient camouflage. In paper III, I investigated if a seasonal related colour change in the chemically defended striated shieldbug (Graphosoma lineatum) is an adaptation to optimise a protective coloration by shifting from camouflage to aposematism between two seasons. The results confirm the hypothesis that the coloration expressed in the late summer has a camouflage function, blending in with the background. Further, I investigated if the internal pattern as such increased the effectiveness of the camouflage. Again, the results are in accordance with the hypothesis, as the patterned coloration was more difficult to detect than colorations lacking an internal pattern. This study shows how an aposematic species can optimise its defence by shifting from camouflage to aposematism, but in a different fashion than studied in paper I. The aim with study IV was to study the selection on aposematic signals by identifying characteristics that are common for colorations of aposematic species, and that distinguish them from colorations of other species. I compared contrast, pattern element size and colour proportion between a group of defended species and a group of undefended species. In contrast to my prediction, the results show no significant differences between the two groups in any of the analyses. One explanation for the non-significant results could be that there are no universal characteristics common for aposematic species. Instead, the selection pressures acting on defended species vary, and therefore affect their appearance differently. Another explanation is that all defended species may not have been selected for a conspicuous aposematic warning coloration. Taken together, my thesis shows that having a conspicuous warning coloration is not the only way to be aposematic. Also, aposematism and camouflage is not two mutually exclusive opposites, as there are prey species that exploit both strategies. It is also important to understand that prey animals are exposed to various selection pressures and trade-offs that affect their appearance, and determines what an optimal coloration is for each species or environment. In conclusion, I hold that the variation among warning colorations is larger and coloration properties that have been considered as archetypically aposematic may not be as widespread and representative as previously assumed.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

Reference values for lung function tests: II. Maximal respiratory pressures and voluntary ventilation

The strength of the respiratory muscles can be evaluated from static measurements (maximal inspiratory and expiratory pressures, MIP and MEP) or inferred from dynamic maneuvers (maximal voluntary ventilation, MVV). Although these data could be suitable for a number of clinical and research applications, no previous studies have provided reference values for such tests using a healthy, randomly selected sample of the adult Brazilian population. With this main purpose, we prospectively evaluated 100 non-smoking subjects (50 males and 50 females), 20 to 80 years old, selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations for MIP, MEP and MVV were developed by multiple regression analysis: age and, secondarily, anthropometric measurements explained up to 56% of the variability of the dependent variables. The most cited previous studies using either Caucasian or non-Caucasian samples systematically underestimated the observed values of MIP (P<0.05). Interestingly, the self-reported level of regular physical activity and maximum aerobic power correlates strongly with both respiratory and peripheral muscular strength (knee extensor peak torque) (P<0.01). Our results, therefore, provide a new frame of reference to evaluate the normalcy of some useful indexes of respiratory muscle strength in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80.

Map of the north coast of Russia indicating the proposed trade route of the Obi-railway

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan