Choice under Risk : Theory and Applications

Es útil para estudiantes de postgrado (Master y Doctorado) en cursos de Economía o de Microeconomía en los que se analicen problemas de Decisión en condiciones de Riesgo o Incertidumbre. El documento comienza explicando la Teoría de la Utilidad Esperada. A continuación se estudian la aversión al riesgo, los coeficientes de aversión absoluta y relativa al riesgo, la relación “más averso que” entre agentes económicos y los efectos riqueza sobre las decisiones en algunas relaciones de preferencia utilizadas frecuentemente en el análisis económico. La sección 4 se centra en la comparación entre alternativas arriesgadas en términos de rendimiento y riesgo, considerando la dominancia estocástica de primer y segundo orden y algunas extensiones posteriores de esas relaciones de orden. El documento concluye con doce ejercicios resueltos en los que se aplican los conceptos y resultados expuestos en las secciones anteriores a problemas de decisión en varios contextos

Não mate o mensageiro : a internet e os protestos no Egito e no Brasil

Analisa o papel desempenhado pela internet nos protestos ocorridos recentemente no Egito e no Brasil.

Valuing a Natura 2000 network site to inform land use options using a discrete choice experiment: An illustration from the Basque Country

One of the main problems that public institutions face in the management of protected areas, such as the European Natura 2000 network, is determining how to design and implement sustainable management plans that account for the wide range of marketed and non-marketed benefits they provide to society. This paper presents an application of a stated preference valuation approach aimed at evaluating the social preferences of the population of the Basque Country, Spain, for the key attributes of a regional Natura 2000 network site. According to our results, individuals’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) is higher for attributes associated with non-use values (native tree species and biodiversity conservation) than for attributes associated with use values (agricultural development and commercial forestry). The paper concludes that management policies related to Natura 2000 network sites should account for both for the importance of non-use values and the heterogeneity of the population's preferences in order to minimize potential land use conflicts.

Experimental Economics Meets Language Choice

Roughly one half of World's languages are in danger of extinction. The endangered languages, spoken by minorities, typically compete with powerful languages such as En- glish or Spanish. Consequently, the speakers of minority languages have to consider that not everybody can speak their language, converting the language choice into strategic,coordination-like situation. We show experimentally that the displacement of minority languages may be partially explained by the imperfect information about the linguistic type of the partner, leading to frequent failure to coordinate on the minority language even between two speakers who can and prefer to use it. The extent of miscoordination correlates with how minoritarian a language is and with the real-life linguistic condition of subjects: the more endangered a language the harder it is to coordinate on its use, and people on whom the language survival relies the most acquire behavioral strategies that lower its use. Our game-theoretical treatment of the issue provides a new perspective for linguistic policies.

Value Estimation and Comparison in Multi-Attribute Choice

The following work explores the processes individuals utilize when making multi-attribute choices. With the exception of extremely simple or familiar choices, most decisions we face can be classified as multi-attribute choices. In order to evaluate and make choices in such an environment, we must be able to estimate and weight the particular attributes of an option. Hence, better understanding the mechanisms involved in this process is an important step for economists and psychologists. For example, when choosing between two meals that differ in taste and nutrition, what are the mechanisms that allow us to estimate and then weight attributes when constructing value? Furthermore, how can these mechanisms be influenced by variables such as attention or common physiological states, like hunger?

In order to investigate these and similar questions, we use a combination of choice and attentional data, where the attentional data was collected by recording eye movements as individuals made decisions. Chapter 1 designs and tests a neuroeconomic model of multi-attribute choice that makes predictions about choices, response time, and how these variables are correlated with attention. Chapter 2 applies the ideas in this model to intertemporal decision-making, and finds that attention causally affects discount rates. Chapter 3 explores how hunger, a common physiological state, alters the mechanisms we utilize as we make simple decisions about foods.

Vectorial solution of Kukhtarev equations for doubly doped crystals and optimal choice of recording directions in nonvolatile holographic storage

Vectorial Kukhtarev equations modified for the nonvolatile holographic recording in doubly doped crystals are analyzed, in which the bulk photovoltaic effect and the external electrical field are both considered. On the basis of small modulation approximation, both the analytic solution to the space-charge field with time in the recording phase and in the readout phase are deduced. The analytic solutions can be easily simplified to adapt the one-center model, and they have the same analytic expressions given those when the grating vector is along the optical axis. Based on the vectorial analyses of the band transport model an optimal recording direction is given to maximize the refractive index change in doubly doped LiNbO3:Fe: Mn crystals. (c) 2007 Optical Society of America.

The choice of a suitable sampler for benthic macroinvertebrates in deep rivers

Both chemical and biological methods are used to assess the water quality of rivers. Many standard physical and chemical methods are now established, but biological procedures of comparable accuracy and versatility are still lacking. This is unfortunate because the biological assessment of water quality has several advantages over physical and chemical analyses. Several groups of organisms have been used to assess water quality in rivers and these include Bacteria, Protozoa, Algae, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish. Hellawell (1978) provides an excellent review of the advantages and disadvantages of these groups, and concludes that macroinvertebrates are the most useful for monitoring water quality. Although macroinvertebrates are relatively easy to sample in shallow water (depth < 1m), quantitative sampling poses more problems than qualitative sampling because a large number of replicate sampling units are usually required for accurate estimates of numbers or biomass per unit area. Both qualitative and quantitative sampling are difficult in deep water (depth > 1m). The present paper first considers different types of samplers with emphasis on immediate samplers, and then discusses some problems in choosing a suitable sampler for benthic macroinvertebrates in deep rivers.

The role of mate guarding, Male Size and Male Investment on Individual Reproductive Success in the Blue Crab, Callinectes Sapidus.

Male blue crabs, Callinectes Sapidus, guard their mates before and after mating, suggesting that the conditions regulating both types of mate guarding dictate individual reproductive success. I tested the hypothesis that large male blue crabs have advantages in sexual competition using experimental manipulations, a simulation model, and field data on crabs from mid-Chesapeake Bay between 1991-1994.

Efeito antimutagênico, antigenotóxico, antiobesidade e antioxidante da Ilex paraguariensis (erva-mate)

O extrato aquoso de erva-mate, obtido a partir de folhas secas de Ilex paraguariensis, é uma bebida amplamente consumida na América do Sul. Inicialmente, nosso objetivo foi caracterizar os compostos presentes nas amostras de erva-mate disponíveis no mercado brasileiro (CH: chimarrão; T: chá mate torrado; G: chá mate torrado, comercialmente acondicionado em garrafas ou C: em copos; TS: chá mate torrado solúvel A mutagenicidade, citotoxicidade e antimutagenicidade de todas as amostras também foram avaliadas atavés do Teste de Ames na presença e na ausência de ativação metabólica. Em seguida, analisamos a amostra TS (2,5, 5,0 e 10 mg/mL) quanto a sua atividade antioxidante e antigenotóxica. Além disso, avaliamos também os efeitos da amostra TS sobre a sinalização da leptina e da insulina no hipotálamo e o estresse oxidativo hepático de ratos adultos obesos programados pela superalimentação neonatal (S). Para induzir S, o tamanho da ninhada foi reduzido a três filhotes por lactante e as ninhadas com número padrão de filhotes (dez/lactante) foram utilizadas como controle. Aos 150 dias de vida, as proles S foram subdivididas em: TS - tratados com extrato aquoso de erva-mate (1g/kg de peso corporal/dia, por gavagem) e S - recebendo água por gavagem durante 30 dias. A prole controle (C) também recebeu água nas mesmas condições do grupo S. Em nossos resultados, verificamos a presença de ácido clorogênico, cafeína e teobromina em todas as amostras analisadas. O conteúdo de compostos fenólicos nas infusões estudadas foram CH: 5,140,23; T: 4,330,01; G: 0,930,25; C: 0,800,3 e TS: 8,350,5 mg/ml. Não observamos efeito mutagênico ou citotóxico nas amostras analisadas. Um efeito antimutagênico significativo foi observado para a cepa TA97 (pré-, co- e pós-tratamento), na presença de ativação metabólica, em todas as amostras testadas. A amostra TS também apresentou um efeito antimutagênico significativo para a TA102 (pré-, co-e e pós-tratamento), na presença de ativação metabólica. Na análise exclusiva da amostra TS, observamos uma atividade antioxidante quando utilizado o ensaio de DPPH, apresentando IC50 69,3+3,1 μg/ml. Além disso, a amostra TS apresentou um efeito protetor sobre a quebra do DNA plasmidial induzida por radicais superóxido e hidroxila, de maneira dose dependente. No teste do cometa, detectamos um efeito antigenotóxico induzido pelo TS em cultura primária de células epiteliais de esôfago. Em nossos testes in vivo observamos que os animais TS não desenvolveram sobrepeso, obesidade visceral e hiperfagia. A resistência hipotalâmica à leptina não foi significativamente revertida, porém a resistência à insulina foi minimizada pelo tratamento com TS no grupo programado pela S. No fígado, TS normalizou as atividades das enzimas antioxidantes (SOD, GPx e CAT) e diminuiu os marcadores de estresse oxidativo, MDA e 4-HNE. O tratamento com TS também reduziu o conteúdo de glicogênio e triglicerídios hepáticos. Nossos resultados sugerem que a erva-mate foi capaz de proteger o DNA contra danos oxidativos, aumentou as defesas antioxidantes, melhorou a função hepática em ratos superalimentados na lactação, talvez através da modulação da sinalização hipotalâmica da insulina podendo ser, portanto, uma importante ferramenta para prevenção e tratamento de doenças relacionadas ao estresse oxidativo.

Age- or length-based methods of growth estimation. What drives the choice?

Based upon a global comparison of over 400 fisheries, the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology was used to identify factors affecting the choice of growth estimation methods. Of the six factors examined, the growth rate (K) and asymptotic length (L8) explained most of the variations. Financial resources, i.e., Gross National Product (GNP), and latitude were also important factors.