Simulation of the Earth's radiation budget by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40)

The radiation budget simulated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) is evaluated for the period 1979–2001 using independent satellite data and additional model data. This provides information on the quality of the radiation products and indirect evaluation of other aspects of the climate produced by ERA40. The climatology of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is well captured by ERA40. Underestimations of about 10 W m−2 in clear-sky OLR over tropical convective regions by ERA40 compared to satellite data are substantially reduced when the satellite sampling is taken into account. The climatology of column-integrated water vapor is well simulated by ERA40 compared to satellite data over the ocean, indicating that the simulation of downward clear-sky longwave fluxes at the surface is likely to be good. Clear-sky absorbed solar radiation (ASR) and clear-sky OLR are overestimated by ERA40 over north Africa and high-latitude land regions. The observed interannual changes in low-latitude means are not well reproduced. Using ERA40 to analyze trends and climate feedbacks globally is therefore not recommended. The all-sky radiation budget is poorly simulated by ERA40. OLR is overestimated by around 10 W m−2 over much of the globe. ASR is underestimated by around 30 W m−2 over tropical ocean regions. Away from marine stratocumulus regions, where cloud fraction is underestimated by ERA40, the poor radiation simulation by ERA40 appears to be related to inaccurate radiative properties of cloud rather than inaccurate cloud distributions.

The chlorine isotope composition of Earth's mantle

Chlorine stable isotope compositions ( delta Cl-37) of 22 mid- ocean ridge basalts ( MORBs) correlate with Cl content. The high-delta Cl-37, Cl- rich basalts are highly contaminated by Cl- rich materials ( seawater, brines, or altered rocks). The low-delta(37) Cl, Cl- poor basalts approach the composition of uncontaminated, mantle- derived magmas. Thus, most or all oceanic lavas are contaminated to some extent during their emplacement. MORB- source mantle has delta(37) Cl <= -1.6 per mil (%), which is significantly lower than that of surface reservoirs (similar to 0 parts per thousand not equal). This isotopic difference between the surface and deep Earth results from net Cl isotopic fractionation ( associated with removal of Cl from the mantle and its return by subduction over Earth history) and/ or the addition ( to external reservoirs) of a late volatile supply that is Cl-37- enriched.

Diurnal cycle of land surface temperature in a desert encroachment zone as observed from satellites

Climate variability in the African Soudano-Sahel savanna zone has attracted much attention because of the persistence of anomalously low rainfall. Past efforts to monitor the climate of this region have focused on rainfall and vegetation conditions, while land surface temperature (LST) has received less attention. Remote sensing of LST is feasible and possible at global scale. Most remotely sensed estimates of LST are based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) that are limited in their ability to capture the full diurnal cycle. Although more frequent observations are available from past geostationary satellites, their spatial resolution is coarser than that of polar orbiting satellites. In this study, the improved capabilities of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on the METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) instrument are used to remotely sense the LST in the African Soudano-Sahel savanna zone at a resolution of 3 km and 15 minutes. In support of the Radiative Atmospheric Divergence using the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF), GERB and AMMA Stations (RADAGAST) project, African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) project and the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, the ARM Mobile Facility was deployed during 2006 in this climatically sensitive region, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate remotely sensed algorithms for deriving LST.

Cloud properties and their seasonal and diurnal variability from TOVS path-B

Eight years of cloud properties retrieved from Television Infrared Observation Satellite-N (TIROS-N) Observational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented. The relatively high spectral resolution of these instruments in the infrared allows especially reliable cirrus identification day and night. This dataset therefore provides complementary information to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). According to this dataset, cirrus clouds cover about 27% of the earth and 45% of the Tropics, whereas ISCCP reports 19% and 25%, respectively. Both global datasets agree within 5% on the amount of single-layer low clouds, at 30%. From 1987 to 1995, global cloud amounts remained stable to within 2%. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount is in general stronger than its diurnal cycle and it is stronger than the one of effective cloud amount, the latter the relevant variable for radiative transfer. Maximum effective low cloud amount over ocean occurs in winter in SH subtropics in the early morning hours and in NH midlatitudes without diurnal cycle. Over land in winter the maximum is in the early afternoon, accompanied in the midlatitudes by thin cirrus. Over tropical land and in the other regions in summer, the maximum of mesoscale high opaque clouds occurs in the evening. Cirrus also increases during the afternoon and persists during night and early morning. The maximum of thin cirrus is in the early afternoon, then decreases slowly while cirrus and high opaque clouds increase. TOVS extends information of ISCCP during night, indicating that high cloudiness, increasing during the afternoon, persists longer during night in the Tropics and subtropics than in midlatitudes. A comparison of seasonal and diurnal cycle of high cloud amount between South America, Africa, and Indonesia during boreal winter has shown strong similarities between the two land regions, whereas the Indonesian islands show a seasonal and diurnal behavior strongly influenced by the surrounding ocean. Deeper precipitation systems over Africa than over South America do not seem to be directly reflected in the horizontal coverage and mesoscale effective emissivity of high clouds.

Can shells of freshwater mussels (Unionidae) be used to estimate low summer discharge of rivers and associated droughts?

This paper examines if shell oxygen isotope ratios (d18Oar) of Unio sp. can be used as a proxy of past discharge of the river Meuse. The proxy was developed from a modern dataset for the reference time interval 1997–2007, which showed a logarithmic relationship between discharge and measured water oxygen isotope ratios(d18Ow). To test this relationship for past time intervals,d18Oar values were measured in the aragonite of the growth increments of four Unio sp. shells; two from a relatively wet period and two from a very dry time interval (1910–1918 and 1969–1977, respectively). Shell d18Oar records were converted into d18Ow values using existing water temperature records. Summer d18Ow values, reconstructed from d18Oar of 1910–1918, showed a similar range as the summer d18Ow values for the reference time interval 1997–2007, whilst summer reconstructed d18Ow values for the time interval 1969–1977 were anomalously high. These high d18Ow values suggest that the river Meuse experienced severe summer droughts during the latter time interval. d18Ow values were then applied to calculate discharge values. It was attempted to estimate discharge from the reconstructed d18Ow values using the logarithmic relationship between d18Ow and discharge. A comparison of the calculated summer discharge results with observed discharge data showed that Meuse low-discharge events below a threshold value of 6 m3/s can be detected in the reconstructed d18Ow records, but true quantification remains problematic.

Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

An Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS)

Current methods for estimating vegetation parameters are generally sub-optimal in the way they exploit information and do not generally consider uncertainties. We look forward to a future where operational dataassimilation schemes improve estimates by tracking land surface processes and exploiting multiple types of observations. Dataassimilation schemes seek to combine observations and models in a statistically optimal way taking into account uncertainty in both, but have not yet been much exploited in this area. The EO-LDAS scheme and prototype, developed under ESA funding, is designed to exploit the anticipated wealth of data that will be available under GMES missions, such as the Sentinel family of satellites, to provide improved mapping of land surface biophysical parameters. This paper describes the EO-LDAS implementation, and explores some of its core functionality. EO-LDAS is a weak constraint variational dataassimilationsystem. The prototype provides a mechanism for constraint based on a prior estimate of the state vector, a linear dynamic model, and EarthObservationdata (top-of-canopy reflectance here). The observation operator is a non-linear optical radiative transfer model for a vegetation canopy with a soil lower boundary, operating over the range 400 to 2500 nm. Adjoint codes for all model and operator components are provided in the prototype by automatic differentiation of the computer codes. In this paper, EO-LDAS is applied to the problem of daily estimation of six of the parameters controlling the radiative transfer operator over the course of a year (> 2000 state vector elements). Zero and first order process model constraints are implemented and explored as the dynamic model. The assimilation estimates all state vector elements simultaneously. This is performed in the context of a typical Sentinel-2 MSI operating scenario, using synthetic MSI observations simulated with the observation operator, with uncertainties typical of those achieved by optical sensors supposed for the data. The experiments consider a baseline state vector estimation case where dynamic constraints are applied, and assess the impact of dynamic constraints on the a posteriori uncertainties. The results demonstrate that reductions in uncertainty by a factor of up to two might be obtained by applying the sorts of dynamic constraints used here. The hyperparameter (dynamic model uncertainty) required to control the assimilation are estimated by a cross-validation exercise. The result of the assimilation is seen to be robust to missing observations with quite large data gaps.

Ultralow-frequency modulation of whistler-mode wave growth

Measurements from ground-based magnetometers and riometers at auroral latitudes have demonstrated that energetic (~30-300keV) electron precipitation can be modulated in the presence of magnetic field oscillations at ultra-low frequencies. It has previously been proposed that an ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave would modulate field and plasma properties near the equatorial plane, thus modifying the growth rates of whistler-mode waves. In turn, the resulting whistler-mode waves would mediate the pitch-angle scattering of electrons resulting in ionospheric precipitation. In this paper, we investigate this hypothesis by quantifying the changes to the linear growth rate expected due to a slow change in the local magnetic field strength for parameters typical of the equatorial region around 6.6RE radial distance. To constrain our study, we determine the largest possible ULF wave amplitudes from measurements of the magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit. Using nearly ten years of observations from two satellites, we demonstrate that the variation in magnetic field strength due to oscillations at 2mHz does not exceed ±10% of the background field. Modifications to the plasma density and temperature anisotropy are estimated using idealised models. For low temperature anisotropy, there is little change in the whistler-mode growth rates even for the largest ULF wave amplitude. Only for large temperature anisotropies can whistler-mode growth rates be modulated sufficiently to account for the changes in electron precipitation measured by riometers at auroral latitudes.

Near-Earth initiation of a terrestrial substorm

Despite the characterization of the auroral substorm more than 40 years ago, controversy still surrounds the processes triggering substorm onset initiation. That stretching of the Earth's magnetotail following the addition of new nightside magnetic flux from dayside reconnection powers the substorm is well understood; the trigger for explosive energy release at substorm expansion phase onset is not. Using ground-based data sets with unprecedented combined spatial and temporal coverage, we report the discovery of new localized and contemporaneous magnetic wave and small azimuthal scale auroral signature of substorm onset. These local auroral arc undulations and magnetic field signatures rapidly evolve on second time scales for several minutes in advance of the release of the auroral surge. We also present evidence from a conjugate geosynchronous satellite of the concurrent magnetic onset in space as the onset of magnetic pulsations in the ionosphere, to within technique error. Throughout this time period, the more poleward arcs that correspond to the auroral oval which maps to the central plasma sheet remain undisturbed. There is good evidence that flows from the midtail crossing the plasma sheet can generate north-south auroral structures, yet no such auroral forms are seen in this event. Our observations present a severe challenge to the standard hypothesis that magnetic reconnection in stretched magnetotail fields triggers onset, indicating substorm expansion phase initiation occurs on field lines that are close to the Earth, as bounded by observations at geosynchronous orbit and in the conjugate ionosphere.

Toward vicarious calibration of microwave remote-sensing satellites in arid environments

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite marks the commencement of dedicated global surface soil moisture missions, and the first mission to make passive microwave observations at L-band. On-orbit calibration is an essential part of the instrument calibration strategy, but on-board beam-filling targets are not practical for such large apertures. Therefore, areas to serve as vicarious calibration targets need to be identified. Such sites can only be identified through field experiments including both in situ and airborne measurements. For this purpose, two field experiments were performed in central Australia. Three areas are studied as follows: 1) Lake Eyre, a typically dry salt lake; 2) Wirrangula Hill, with sparse vegetation and a dense cover of surface rock; and 3) Simpson Desert, characterized by dry sand dunes. Of those sites, only Wirrangula Hill and the Simpson Desert are found to be potentially suitable targets, as they have a spatial variation in brightness temperatures of <4 K under normal conditions. However, some limitations are observed for the Simpson Desert, where a bias of 15 K in vertical and 20 K in horizontal polarization exists between model predictions and observations, suggesting a lack of understanding of the underlying physics in this environment. Subsequent comparison with model predictions indicates a SMOS bias of 5 K in vertical and 11 K in horizontal polarization, and an unbiased root mean square difference of 10 K in both polarizations for Wirrangula Hill. Most importantly, the SMOS observations show that the brightness temperature evolution is dominated by regular seasonal patterns and that precipitation events have only little impact.

Implications of the recent low solar minimum for the solar wind during the Maunder minimum

The behavior of the Sun and near-Earth space during grand solar minima is not understood; however, the recent long and low minimum of the decadal-scale solar cycle gives some important clues, with implications for understanding the solar dynamo and predicting space weather conditions. The speed of the near-Earth solar wind and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) embedded within it can be reliably reconstructed for before the advent of spacecraft monitoring using observations of geomagnetic activity that extend back to the mid-19th century. We show that during the solar cycle minima around 1879 and 1901 the average solar wind speed was exceptionally low, implying the Earth remained within the streamer belt of slow solar wind flow for extended periods. This is consistent with a broader streamer belt, which was also a feature of the recent low minimum (2009), and yields a prediction that the low near-Earth IMF during the Maunder minimum (1640-1700), as derived from models and deduced from cosmogenic isotopes, was accompanied by a persistent and relatively constant solar wind of speed roughly half the average for the modern era.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 3: improved representation of solar cycle 11

Svalgaard (2014) has recently pointed out that the calibration of the Helsinki magnetic observatory’s H component variometer was probably in error in published data for the years 1866–1874.5 and that this makes the interdiurnal variation index based on daily means, IDV(1d), (Lockwood et al., 2013a), and the interplanetary magnetic field strength derived from it (Lockwood et al., 2013b), too low around the peak of solar cycle 11. We use data from the modern Nurmijarvi station, relatively close to the site of the original Helsinki Observatory, to confirm a 30% underestimation in this interval and hence our results are fully consistent with the correction derived by Svalgaard. We show that the best method for recalibration uses the Helsinki Ak(H) and aa indices and is accurate to ±10 %. This makes it preferable to recalibration using either the sunspot number or the diurnal range of geomagnetic activity which we find to be accurate to ±20 %. In the case of Helsinki data during cycle 11, the two recalibration methods produce very similar corrections which are here confirmed using newly digitised data from the nearby St Petersburg observatory and also using declination data from Helsinki. However, we show that the IDV index is, compared to later years, too similar to sunspot number before 1872, revealing independence of the two data series has been lost; either because the geomagnetic data used to compile IDV has been corrected using sunspot numbers, or vice versa, or both. We present corrected data sequences for both the IDV(1d) index and the reconstructed IMF (interplanetary magnetic field).We also analyse the relationship between the derived near-Earth IMF and the sunspot number and point out the relevance of the prior history of solar activity, in addition to the contemporaneous value, to estimating any “floor” value of the near-Earth interplanetary field.

Extended cusp-like regions and their dependence on the Polar orbit, seasonal variations, and interplanetary conditions

Extended cusp-like regions (ECRs) are surveyed, as observed by the Magnetospheric Ion Composition Sensor (MICS) of the Charge and Mass Magnetospheric Ion Composition Experiment (CAMMICE) instrument aboard Polar between 1996 and 1999. The first of these ECR events was observed on 29 May 1996, an event widely discussed in the literature and initially thought to be caused by tail lobe reconnection due to the coinciding prolonged interval of strong northward IMF. ECRs are characterized here by intense fluxes of magnetosheath-like ions in the energy-per-charge range of _1 to 10 keV e_1. We investigate the concurrence of ECRs with intervals of prolonged (lasting longer than 1 and 3 hours) orientations of the IMF vector and high solar wind dynamic pressure (PSW). Also investigated is the opposite concurrence, i.e., of the IMF and high PSW with ECRs. (Note that these surveys are asking distinctly different questions.) The former survey indicates that ECRs have no overall preference for any orientation of the IMF. However, the latter survey reveals that during northward IMF, particularly when accompanied by high PSW, ECRs are more likely. We also test for orbital and seasonal effects revealing that Polar has to be in a particular region to observe ECRs and that they occur more frequently around late spring. These results indicate that ECRs have three distinct causes and so can relate to extended intervals in (1) the cusp on open field lines, (2) the magnetosheath, and (3) the magnetopause indentation at the cusp, with the latter allowing magnetosheath plasma to approach close to the Earth without entering the magnetosphere.