Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

1. Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although some factors probably have negligible effects compared to others, their relative effects are largely unknown. 2. We introduce a general "virtual ecologist" framework to study the relative importance of factors involved in the construction of species distribution models. 3. We illustrate the framework by examining the relative importance of five key factors-a missing covariate, spatial autocorrelation due to a dispersal process in presences/absences, sample size, sampling design and modeling technique-in a real study framework based on plants in a mountain landscape at regional scale, and show that, for the parameter values considered here, most of the variation in prediction accuracy is due to sample size and modeling technique. Contrary to repeatedly reported concerns, spatial autocorrelation has only comparatively small effects. 4. This study shows the importance of using a nested statistical framework to evaluate the relative effects of factors that may affect species distribution models.

Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

A Population-Based Model to Consider the Effect of Seasonal Variation on Serum 25(OH)D and Vitamin D Status.

Background. We elaborated a model that predicts the centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution taking into account seasonal variation. Methods. Data from two Swiss population-based studies were used to generate (CoLaus) and validate (Bus Santé) the model. Serum 25(OH)D was measured by ultra high pressure LC-MS/MS and immunoassay. Linear regression models on square-root transformed 25(OH)D values were used to predict centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution. Distribution functions of the observations from the replication set predicted with the model were inspected to assess replication. Results. Overall, 4,912 and 2,537 Caucasians were included in original and replication sets, respectively. Mean (SD) 25(OH)D, age, BMI, and % of men were 47.5 (22.1) nmol/L, 49.8 (8.5) years, 25.6 (4.1) kg/m(2), and 49.3% in the original study. The best model included gender, BMI, and sin-cos functions of measurement day. Sex- and BMI-specific 25(OH)D centile curves as a function of measurement date were generated. The model estimates any centile of the 25(OH)D distribution for given values of sex, BMI, and date and the quantile corresponding to a 25(OH)D measurement. Conclusions. We generated and validated centile curves of 25(OH)D in the general adult Caucasian population. These curves can help rank vitamin D centile independently of when 25(OH)D is measured.

Effect of compressibility in bubble formation in closed systems

We analyze the stability of small bubbles in a closed system with fixed volume, temperature, and number of molecules. We show that there exists a minimum stable size of a bubble. Thus there exists a range of densities where no stable bubbles are allowed and the system has a homogeneous density which is lower than the coexistence density of the liquid. This becomes possible due to the finite liquid compressibility. Capillary analysis within the developed"modified bubble" model illustrates that the existence of the minimum bubble size is associated to the compressibility and it is not possible when the liquid is strictly incompressible. This finding is expected to have very important implications in cavitation and boiling.

The effect of learning on the evolution of new courtship behavior: a simulation model

The fact that individuals learn can change the relationship between genotype and phenotype in the population, and thus affect the evolutionary response to selection. Here we ask how male ability to learn from female response affects the evolution of a novel male behavioral courtship trait under pre-existing female preference (sensory drive). We assume a courtship trait which has both a genetic and a learned component, and a two-level female response to males. With individual-based simulations we show that, under this scenario, learning generally increases the strength of selection on the genetic component of the courtship trait, at least when the population genetic mean is still low. As a consequence, learning not only accelerates the evolution of the courtship trait, but also enables it when the trait is costly, which in the absence of learning results in an adaptive valley. Furthermore, learning can enable the evolution of the novel trait in the face of gene flow mediated by immigration of males that show superior attractiveness to females based on another, non-heritable trait. However, rather than increasing monotonically with the speed of learning, the effect of learning on evolution is maximized at intermediate learning rates. This model shows that, at least under some scenarios, the ability to learn can drive the evolution of mating behaviors through a process equivalent to Waddington's genetic assimilation.

Anti-hyperalgesic effect of electroacupuncture in a model of post-incisional pain in rats

Electroacupuncture has been proposed to be a low cost and practical method that allows effective pain management with minimal collateral effects. In this study we have examined the effect of electroacupuncture against the hyperalgesia developed in a model of post-incisional pain in rats. A 1-cm longitudinal incision was made through the skin and fascia of the plantar region of the animal hind paw. Mechanical hyperalgesia in the incision was evaluated 135 min after the surgery with von Frey filaments. The tension threshold was reduced from 75 g (upper limit of the test) to 1.36 ± 0.36 g (mean ± SEM) in control rats. It is shown that a 15-min period of electroacupuncture applied 120 min after surgery to the Zusanli (ST36) and Sanyinjiao (SP6) points, but not to non-acupoints, produces a significant and long-lasting reduction of the mechanical hyperalgesia induced by the surgical incision of the plantar surface of the ipsilateral hind paw. The tension threshold was reduced from 75 to 27.6 ± 4.2 g in animals soon after the end of electroacupuncture. The mechanical threshold in this group was about 64% less than in control. Electroacupuncture was ineffective in rats treated 10 min earlier with naloxone (1 mg/kg, ip), thus confirming the involvement of opioid mechanisms in the antinociceptive effects of such procedure. The results indicate that post-incisional pain is a useful model for studying the anti-hyperalgesic properties of electroacupuncture in laboratory animals.

Effect of pentoxifylline on lung inflammation and gas exchange in a sepsis-induced acute lung injury model

Experimental models of sepsis-induced pulmonary alterations are important for the study of pathogenesis and for potential intervention therapies. The objective of the present study was to characterize lung dysfunction (low PaO2 and high PaCO2, and increased cellular infiltration, protein extravasation, and malondialdehyde (MDA) production assessed in bronchoalveolar lavage) in a sepsis model consisting of intraperitoneal (ip) injection of Escherichia coli and the protective effects of pentoxifylline (PTX). Male Wistar rats (weighing between 270 and 350 g) were injected ip with 10(7) or 10(9) CFU/100 g body weight or saline and samples were collected 2, 6, 12, and 24 h later (N = 5 each group). PaO2, PaCO2 and pH were measured in blood, and cellular influx, protein extravasation and MDA concentration were measured in bronchoalveolar lavage. In a second set of experiments either PTX or saline was administered 1 h prior to E. coli ip injection (N = 5 each group) and the animals were observed for 6 h. Injection of 10(7) or 10(9) CFU/100 g body weight of E. coli induced acidosis, hypoxemia, and hypercapnia. An increased (P < 0.05) cell influx was observed in bronchoalveolar lavage, with a predominance of neutrophils. Total protein and MDA concentrations were also higher (P < 0.05) in the septic groups compared to control. A higher tumor necrosis factor-alpha (P < 0.05) concentration was also found in these animals. Changes in all parameters were more pronounced with the higher bacterial inoculum. PTX administered prior to sepsis reduced (P < 0.05) most functional alterations. These data show that an E. coli ip inoculum is a good model for the induction of lung dysfunction in sepsis, and suitable for studies of therapeutic interventions.

Cardioprotective effect of ornitho-kinin in an anesthetized, open-chest chicken model of acute coronary occlusion

The generation of bradykinin (BK; Arg-Pro-Pro-Gly-Phe-Ser-Pro-Phe-Arg) in blood and kallidin (Lys-BK) in tissues by the action of the kallikrein-kinin system has received little attention in non-mammalian vertebrates. In mammals, kallidin can be generated by the coronary endothelium and myocytes in response to ischemia, mediating cardioprotective events. The plasma of birds lacks two key components of the kallikrein-kinin system: the low molecular weight kininogen and a prekallikrein activator analogous to mammalian factor XII, but treatment with bovine plasma kallikrein generates ornitho-kinin [Thr6,Leu8]-BK. The possible cardioprotective effect of ornitho-kinin infusion was investigated in an anesthetized, open-chest chicken model of acute coronary occlusion. A branch of the left main coronary artery was reversibly ligated to produce ischemia followed by reperfusion, after which the degree of myocardial necrosis (infarct size as a percent of area at risk) was assessed by tetrazolium staining. The iv injection of a low dose of ornitho-kinin (4 µg/kg) reduced mean arterial pressure from 88 ± 12 to 42 ± 7 mmHg and increased heart rate from 335 ± 38 to 402 ± 45 bpm (N = 5). The size of the infarct was reduced by pretreatment with ornitho-kinin (500 µg/kg infused over a period of 5 min) from 35 ± 3 to 10 ± 2% of the area at risk. These results suggest that the physiological role of the kallikrein-kinin system is preserved in this animal model in spite of the absence of two key components, i.e., low molecular weight kininogen and factor XII.

The effect of down-regulation of Smad3 by RNAi on hepatic stellate cells and a carbon tetrachloride-induced rat model of hepatic fibrosis

Searching for effective Smad3 gene-based gene therapies for hepatic fibrosis, we constructed siRNA expression plasmids targeting the rat Smad3 gene and then delivered these plasmids into hepatic stellate cells (HSCs). The effect of siRNAs on the mRNA levels of Smad2, Smad3, Smad4, and collagens I-α1, III-α1 and IV-α1 (Colα1, Col3α1, Col4α1, respectively) was determined by RT-PCR. Eighty adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into three groups. Twice a week for 8 weeks, the untreated hepatic fibrosis model (N = 30) and the treated group (N = 20) were injected subcutaneously with 40% (v/v) carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-olive oil (3 mL/kg), and the normal control group (N = 30) was injected with olive oil (3 mL/kg). In the 4th week, the treated rats were injected subcutaneously with liposome-encapsulated plasmids (150 µg/kg) into the right liver lobe under general anesthesia once every 2 weeks, and the untreated rats were injected with the same volume of buffer. At the end of the 6th and 8th weeks, liver tissue and sera were collected. Pathological changes were assessed by a semi-quantitative scoring system (SSS), and a radioimmunoassay was used to establish a serum liver fibrosis index (type III procollagen, type IV collagen, laminin, and hyaluronic acid). The mRNA expression levels of the above cited genes were reduced in the HSCs transfected with the siRNA expression plasmids. Moreover, in the treated group, fibrosis evaluated by the SSS was significantly reduced (P < 0.05) and the serum indices were greatly improved (P < 0.01). These results suggest that Smad3 siRNA expression plasmids have an anti-fibrotic effect.

Effect of physical training on liver expression of activin A and follistatin in a nonalcoholic fatty liver disease model in rats

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterized by fat accumulation in the liver and is associated with obesity and insulin resistance. Activin A is a member of the transforming growth factor beta (TGF)-β superfamily and inhibits hepatocyte growth. Follistatin antagonizes the biological actions of activin. Exercise is an important therapeutic strategy to reduce the metabolic effects of obesity. We evaluated the pattern of activin A and follistatin liver expression in obese rats subjected to swimming exercise. Control rats (C) and high-fat (HF) diet-fed rats were randomly assigned to a swimming training group (C-Swim and HF-Swim) or a sedentary group (C-Sed and HF-Sed). Activin βA subunit mRNA expression was significantly higher in HF-Swim than in HF-Sed rats. Follistatin mRNA expression was significantly lower in C-Swim and HF-Swim than in either C-Sed or HF-Sed animals. There was no evidence of steatosis or inflammation in C rats. In contrast, in HF animals the severity of steatosis ranged from grade 1 to grade 3. The extent of liver parenchyma damage was less in HF-Swim animals, with the severity of steatosis ranging from grade 0 to grade 1. These data showed that exercise may reduce the deleterious effects of a high-fat diet on the liver, suggesting that the local expression of activin-follistatin may be involved.

Effect of (+)-dehydrofukinone on GABAA receptors and stress response in fish model

(+)-Dehydrofukinone (DHF) is a major component of the essential oil of Nectandra grandiflora (Lauraceae), and exerts a depressant effect on the central nervous system of fish. However, the neuronal mechanism underlying DHF action remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate the action of DHF on GABAA receptors using a silver catfish (Rhamdia quelen) model. Additionally, we investigated the effect of DHF exposure on stress-induced cortisol modulation. Chemical identification was performed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and purity was evaluated using gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector. To an aquarium, we applied between 2.5 and 50 mg/L DHF diluted in ethanol, in combination with 42.7 mg/L diazepam. DHF within the range of 10-20 mg/L acted collaboratively in combination with diazepam, but the sedative action of DHF was reversed by 3 mg/L flumazenil. Additionally, fish exposed for 24 h to 2.5-20 mg/L DHF showed no side effects and there was sustained sedation during the first 12 h of drug exposure with 10-20 mg/L DHF. DHF pretreatment did not increase plasma cortisol levels in fish subjected to a stress protocol. Moreover, the stress-induced cortisol peak was absent following pretreatment with 20 mg/L DHF. DHF proved to be a relatively safe sedative or anesthetic, which interacts with GABAergic and cortisol pathways in fish.

Effect of dietary fiber on the bioaccessibility of phenolic compounds of mango, papaya and pineapple fruits by an in vitro digestion model

The presence of dietary fiber (DF) in the food matrix of some tropical fruits plays an important role in the release and absorption of its bioactive compounds, such as phenolic compounds (PCs). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the DF fractions in mango cv. ‘Ataulfo’, papaya cv. ‘Maradol’ and pineapple cv. ‘Esmeralda’, on the bioaccessibility of their PCs and antioxidant capacity (AOXC) under an in vitro digestion model. The highest PCs content and AOXC was found in mango (274.30 mg GAE/100 g FW), followed by papaya (212 mg GAE//100 g FW), and pineapple (107.63 mg GAE/100 g FW), respectively. About 50% of the total PCs in all fruits was released at gastric phase, increasing closer to 60% at intestinal phase in mango and pineapple. However, the highest content of PCs associated to DF was found in mango (2.48 mg GAE/100 g FW) compared with papaya DF fractions (0.96 GAE/100 g FW) and pineapple (0.52 GAE/100 g FW). The presence of DF in mango, papaya and pineapple did not represent a major limitation on the bioaccessibility of its PCs according to the in vitro digestion model used in this study.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Effect of the position of the double-bond in monounsaturated phospholipids on the dynamics of model membranes

Therllloelynalllics of lllodel 11lel1ll)rane systeills containing 1110nollnsaturatecl I)lloSI)holil) ids is strongly infllienced l)y the I)osition of the C==C dOlll)le })ond in tIle acyl chain. The telllI)eratllres of both chain-nlelting (TM) and La -+ HI! (TH) I)hase traIlsitions are lowered by IIp to 20°C when C==C is Inoved froln positions 6 or 11 to I)osition 9 in an 18-carl)on chain. This work is an attellll)t to ellicidate the uIlderlying Illoleclilar Illechanisllls reSI)Onsi])le for tllese draillatic tllerillodynaillic changes. Mixtllres of di-18: 1 l)hoSI)hatidylethanolanline with C==C at l)ositioIlS 6, 9, 11 were llsed, witll a sI1lall aI1lOlint of I)erdellterated tetradecanol, known to })e a gooel rel)Orter of the cllain Illoleclilar order. SI)ectral second 11I0I1lents were llsed to Illonitor tIle La -+ HII I)hase transition, which was fOllnd to ])e ])road (2-6°C), with a slight llysteresis on heatiIlg/cooling. The orientational order I)rofiles were nleasllred 1lSiIlg 2H Illiclear Illagnetic resonance and changes in these order I)rofiles between La aIld HII I)hases silow l)oth a local increase in order in the vicinity of the C==C bonds and an o\Terall decrease ill the average orientational order of the chain as a whole. These Sll])tle changes recluire })oth high-fidelity SI)ectrosCol)y and a careflll data analysis that takes into aCCOllnt the effects due to l)artiall1lagnetically-indllced orientational ordering of the l)ilayers. In tIle COIltext of SOllle recently rel)Orted cross-relaxation 11leaSlirenlents in Silllilar l)llOSI)llolil)iels, 0111' reslilts sllggest that large-anll)litllde conforlllational changes in the interior of tIle I110del 111eI11])ranes I)lay a 1110re significant role than I)reviollsly thOllght.

The effect of 17-B estradiol therapy on bone mineral density and structure of alveolar bone in the ovariectomized rat model of postmenopausal osteoporosis

The ovariectomized (OVX) rat, a preclinical model for studying postmenopausal bone loss, may also be used to study differences in alveolar bone (AB). The objectives of this study were to quantify the differences in AB following estrogen replacement therapy (ERT), and to investigate the relationship between AB structure and density, and trabecular bone at the femoral neck (FN) and third lumbar vertebral body (LB3). Estrogen treated rats had a higher bone volume fraction (BV/TV) at the AB region (9.8% P < 0.0001), FN (12% P < 0.0001), and LB3 (11.5% P < 0.0001) compared to the OVX group. BV/TV of the AB was positively correlated with the BV/TV at the FN (r = 0.69 P < 0.0001) and the LB3 (r = 0.75 P < 0.0001). The trabecular number (Tb.N), trabecular separation (Tb.Sp), and structure model index (SMI) were also positively correlated (P < 0.05) between the AB and FN (r = 0.42, 0.49, and 0.73, respectfully) and between the AB and LB3 (r = 0.44, 0.63, and 0.69, respectfully). Given the capacity of AB to respond to ERT, future preclinical drug/nutritional intervention studies aimed at improving skeletal health should include the AB as a region of interest (ROI).