Detection of EPO doping and blood doping: the haematological module of the Athlete Biological Passport.

The increase of the body's capacity to transport oxygen is a prime target for doping athletes in all endurance sports. For this pupose, blood transfusions or erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA), such as erythropoietin, NESP, and CERA are used. As direct detection of such manipulations is difficult, biomarkers that are connected to the haematopoietic system (haemoglobin concentration, reticulocytes) are monitored over time (Athlete Biological Passport (ABP)) and analyzed using mathematical models to identify patterns suspicious of doping. With this information, athletes can either be sanctioned directly based on their profile or targeted with conventional doping tests. Key issues for the appropriate use of the ABP are correct targeting and use of all available information (e.g. whereabouts, cross sectional population data) in a forensic manner. Future developments of the passport include the correction of all concentration-based variables for shifts in plasma volume, which might considerably increase sensitivity. New passport markers from the genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic level might add further information, but need to be validated before integration into the passport procedure. A first assessment of blood data of federations that have implemented the passport show encouraging signs of a decreased blood-doping prevalence in their athletes, which adds scientific credibility to this innovative concept in the fight against ESA- and blood doping. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Virus infection speeds: theory versus experiment

In order to explain the speed of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus VSV infections, we develop a simple model that improves previous approaches to the propagation of virus infections. For VSV infections, we find that the delay time elapsed between the adsorption of a viral particle into a cell and the release of its progeny has a veryimportant effect. Moreover, this delay time makes the adsorption rate essentially irrelevant in order to predict VSV infection speeds. Numerical simulations are in agreement with the analytical results. Our model satisfactorily explains the experimentally measured speeds of VSV infections

The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

Estudi de la mobilitat en diferents xarxes de transport públic

Aquest projecte es centra en la realització d’un estudi de la mobilitat en diferents xarxes de transport públic. En particular, aquest estudi pretén ser una anàlisi comparativa de conceptes relacionats amb la topologia i navegabilitat de xarxes de metro de diferents països des d’un punt de vista innovador, tot realitzant una aproximació interdisciplinària a l’anàlisi de les xarxes.Es tracta d’un estudi centrat sobretot en conceptes i mètodes desenvolupats últimament en el camps de les Xarxes Complexes i de la Teoria de la Informació. Això ens ha permès focalitzar les nostres conclusions en les mesures de navegabilitat de les diferents xarxes així com en els paràmetres topològics que ens les defineixen, sense basar-nos en dades geogràfiques ni operatives. Els sistemes de metro estudiats en el present treball són els de Barcelona, Moscou, París i Nova York. Són sistemes que s’han desenvolupat en ambients històrics i culturals molt diversos fet que pot donar lloc a veure si aquesta circumstància és causant de diferències estructurals i de funcionament entre ells o bési pel contrari segueixen uns patrons de comportament semblants

New tools for epidemiology: a space odyssey

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) facilitate access to epidemiological data through visualization and may be consulted for the development of mathematical models and analysis by spatial statistics. Variables such as land-cover, land-use, elevations, surface temperatures, rainfall etc. emanating from earth-observing satellites, complement GIS as this information allows the analysis of disease distribution based on environmental characteristics. The strength of this approach issues from the specific environmental requirements of those causative infectious agents, which depend on intermediate hosts for their transmission. The distribution of these diseases is restricted, both by the environmental requirements of their intermediate hosts/vectors and by the ambient temperature inside these hosts, which effectively govern the speed of maturation of the parasite. This paper discusses the current capabilities with regard to satellite data collection in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal and spectral) of the sensor instruments on board drawing attention to the utility of computer-based models of the Earth for epidemiological research. Virtual globes, available from Google and other commercial firms, are superior to conventional maps as they do not only show geographical and man-made features, but also allow instant import of data-sets of specific interest, e.g. environmental parameters, demographic information etc., from the Internet.

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of a model for the spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous metapopulations

We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes

Analytical expressions for the flame front speed in the downward combustion of thin solid fuels and comparison to experiments

We derive analytical expressions for the propagation speed of downward combustion fronts of thin solid fuels with a background flow initially at rest. The classical combustion model for thin solid fuels that consists of five coupled reaction-convection-diffusion equations is here reduced into a single equation with the gas temperature as the single variable. For doing so we apply a two-zone combustion model that divides the system into a preheating region and a pyrolyzing region. The speed of the combustion front is obtained after matching the temperature and its derivative at the location that separates both regions.We also derive a simplified version of this analytical expression expected to be valid for a wide range of cases. Flame front velocities predicted by our analyticalexpressions agree well with experimental data found in the literature for a large variety of cases and substantially improve the results obtained from a previous well-known analytical expression

Continuous-time formulation of reaction-diffusion processes on heterogeneous metapopulations

We present the derivation of the continuous-time equations governing the limit dynamics of discrete-time reaction-diffusion processes defined on heterogeneous metapopulations. We show that, when a rigorous time limit is performed, the lack of an epidemic threshold in the spread of infections is not limited to metapopulations with a scale-free architecture, as it has been predicted from dynamical equations in which reaction and diffusion occur sequentially in time

Anisotropic dispersion, space competition, and the slowdown of the Neolithic transition

The front speed of the Neolithic (farmer) spread in Europe decreased as it reached Northern latitudes, where the Mesolithic (huntergatherer) population density was higher. Here, we describe a reaction diffusion model with (i) an anisotropic dispersion kernel depending on the Mesolithicpopulation density gradient and (ii) a modified population growth equation. Both effects are related to the space available for the Neolithic population. The model is able to explain the slowdown of the Neolithic front as observed from archaeological data

Fronts from two-dimensional dispersal kernels: Beyond the nonoverlapping-generations model

Most integrodifference models of biological invasions are based on the nonoverlapping-generations approximation. However, the effect of multiple reproduction events overlapping generations on the front speed can be very important especially for species with a long life spam . Only in one-dimensional space has this approximation been relaxed previously, although almost all biological invasions take place in two dimensions. Here we present a model that takes into account the overlapping generations effect or, more generally, the stage structure of the population , and we analyze the main differences with the corresponding nonoverlappinggenerations results

Hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations for a forest fire model

Forest fire models have been widely studied from the context of self-organized criticality and from the ecological properties of the forest and combustion. On the other hand, reaction-diffusion equations have interesting applications in biology and physics. We propose here a model for fire propagation in a forest by using hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations. The dynamical and thermodynamical aspects of the model are analyzed in detail

Reaction-diffusion wave fronts: Multigeneration biological species under climate change

A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion

Speed of reaction-transport processes

We present an approach to determining the speed of wave-front solutions to reaction-transport processes. This method is more accurate than previous ones. This is explicitly shown for several cases of practical interest: (i) the anomalous diffusion reaction, (ii) reaction diffusion in an advective field, and (iii) time-delayed reaction diffusion. There is good agreement with the results of numerical simulations

Speed of wave-front solutions to hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations

The asymptotic speed problem of front solutions to hyperbolic reaction-diffusion (HRD) equations is studied in detail. We perform linear and variational analyses to obtain bounds for the speed. In contrast to what has been done in previous work, here we derive upper bounds in addition to lower ones in such a way that we can obtain improved bounds. For some functions it is possible to determine the speed without any uncertainty. This is also achieved for some systems of HRD (i.e., time-delayed Lotka-Volterra) equations that take into account the interaction among different species. An analytical analysis is performed for several systems of biological interest, and we find good agreement with the results of numerical simulations as well as with available observations for a system discussed recently