Context-based identification of energy consumption in industrial plants

Nowadays, reducing energy consumption is one of the highest priorities and biggest challenges faced worldwide and in particular in the industrial sector. Given the increasing trend of consumption and the current economical crisis, identifying cost reductions on the most energy-intensive sectors has become one of the main concerns among companies and researchers. Particularly in industrial environments, energy consumption is affected by several factors, namely production factors(e.g. equipments), human (e.g. operators experience), environmental (e.g. temperature), among others, which influence the way of how energy is used across the plant. Therefore, several approaches for identifying consumption causes have been suggested and discussed. However, the existing methods only provide guidelines for energy consumption and have shown difficulties in explaining certain energy consumption patterns due to the lack of structure to incorporate context influence, hence are not able to track down the causes of consumption to a process level, where optimization measures can actually take place. This dissertation proposes a new approach to tackle this issue, by on-line estimation of context-based energy consumption models, which are able to map operating context to consumption patterns. Context identification is performed by regression tree algorithms. Energy consumption estimation is achieved by means of a multi-model architecture using multiple RLS algorithms, locally estimated for each operating context. Lastly, the proposed approach is applied to a real cement plant grinding circuit. Experimental results prove the viability of the overall system, regarding both automatic context identification and energy consumption estimation.

Diffusional kurtosis imaging using a fast heuristic constrained linear least squares algorithm: a plugin for OsiriX

Diffusion Kurtosis Imaging (DKI) is a fairly new magnetic resonance imag-ing (MRI) technique that tackles the non-gaussian motion of water in biological tissues by taking into account the restrictions imposed by tissue microstructure, which are not considered in Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI), where the water diffusion is considered purely gaussian. As a result DKI provides more accurate information on biological structures and is able to detect important abnormalities which are not visible in standard DTI analysis. This work regards the development of a tool for DKI computation to be implemented as an OsiriX plugin. Thus, as OsiriX runs under Mac OS X, the pro-gram is written in Objective-C and also makes use of Apple’s Cocoa framework. The whole program is developed in the Xcode integrated development environ-ment (IDE). The plugin implements a fast heuristic constrained linear least squares al-gorithm (CLLS-H) for estimating the diffusion and kurtosis tensors, and offers the user the possibility to choose which maps are to be generated for not only standard DTI quantities such as Mean Diffusion (MD), Radial Diffusion (RD), Axial Diffusion (AD) and Fractional Anisotropy (FA), but also DKI metrics, Mean Kurtosis (MK), Radial Kurtosis (RK) and Axial Kurtosis (AK).The plugin was subjected to both a qualitative and a semi-quantitative analysis which yielded convincing results. A more accurate validation pro-cess is still being developed, after which, and with some few minor adjust-ments the plugin shall become a valid option for DKI computation

Validation of a case definition for leptospirosis diagnosis in patients with acute severe febrile disease admitted in reference hospitals at the State of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is often mistaken for other acute febrile illnesses because of its nonspecific presentation. Bacteriologic, serologic, and molecular methods have several limitations for early diagnosis: technical complexity, low availability, low sensitivity in early disease, or high cost. This study aimed to validate a case definition, based on simple clinical and laboratory tests, that is intended for bedside diagnosis of leptospirosis among hospitalized patients. METHODS: Adult patients, admitted to two reference hospitals in Recife, Brazil, with a febrile illness of less than 21 days and with a clinical suspicion of leptospirosis, were included to test a case definition comprising ten clinical and laboratory criteria. Leptospirosis was confirmed or excluded by a composite reference standard (microscopic agglutination test, ELISA, and blood culture). Test properties were determined for each cutoff number of the criteria from the case definition. RESULTS: Ninety seven patients were included; 75 had confirmed leptospirosis and 22 did not. Mean number of criteria from the case definition that were fulfilled was 7.8±1.2 for confirmed leptospirosis and 5.9±1.5 for non-leptospirosis patients (p<0.0001). Best sensitivity (85.3%) and specificity (68.2%) combination was found with a cutoff of 7 or more criteria, reaching positive and negative predictive values of 90.1% and 57.7%, respectively; accuracy was 81.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The case definition, for a cutoff of at least 7 criteria, reached average sensitivity and specificity, but with a high positive predictive value. Its simplicity and low cost make it useful for rapid bedside leptospirosis diagnosis in Brazilian hospitalized patients with acute severe febrile disease.

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods. Every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of 10 percent instead of 0 inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to 1 percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different references, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Cost-to-serve customers’ optimization: Macro project Unilever – Jerónimo Martins

The objective of this work project is to analyse and discuss the importance of the “Cost to Serve” as a differentiation key factor, by accessing cost to serve customers of a Portuguese subsidiary of a multinational company, which is operating in the sector of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) – Unilever – Jerónimo Martins (UJM). I will also suggest and quantify key proposals to decrease costs and increase customers’ value. Hence, the scope of this work project is focused on logistics and distribution processes of the company supply chain.

Low cost carriers: The case of Oporto Airport and its touristic impact in the region

Both Oporto and the North Region of Portugal definitions of tourism have evolved significantly during the past decade. In this journey it is relevant to highlight the contribution of the arrival of Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) at Francisco Sá Carneiro Airport, thus contributing to a rapid expansion of this region as a tourism destination. Hence, this work project aims to understand the touristic and economic impact motivated by the entry of LCCs in Oporto and in the North Region of Portugal and tries to understand if this event was in fact an asset in the development of the aforementioned tourism destinations.

The economic valuation of noise reduction projects: A cost-benefit analysis approach

The main purpose of this Work Project consists in performing a practical Cost-Benefit Analysis from a social perspective of two noise reduction projects in industrial sites that aim at complying with the existing regulation. By doing so, one may expect a more comprehensive view of the benefits and costs of both projects, as well as relevant insight to the way noise exposure regulation must be optimally defined in Portugal and within the EU area.

Evaluation of long term persistence of Diabetes Mellitus Type II treatment newly diagnosed patients in Lisbon and Tagus health administration region : a three year follow up study

RESUMO: Raional: A persistência à terapêutica é o tempo em qualquer antidiabético oral, desde o seu início até à descontinuação de todas as medicações ou até ao fim do período do estudo. Os objetivos deste estudo foi a análise da persistência à terapêutica no segundo e terceiro anos após início do tratamento em doentes adultos diagnosticados na região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo e determinar o efeito de determinadas variáveis na persistência a longo prazo. Métodos: Um estudo retrospetivo não interventivo foi desenhado com base nos dados a obter do SIARS (prescrições e aquisições na farmácia) e Pordata. A persistência foi quantificada como a percentagem de doentes que continuam a adquirir pelo menos um antidiabético oral ao segundo e terceiro anos após a compra da primeira receita. A associação entre a persistência e o segundo e terceiro anos com cada uma das co-variáveis foi aferido pelo teste qui-quadrado e os odd ratios foram calculados com recurso a um modelo de regressão logística. Resultados: A persistência à terapêutica obtida foi de 80% e 62% para o segundo e terceiro anos após início da terapêutica. Odd ratios para primeiro e segundo ano: número de grupos farmacoterapêuticos diferentes (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); idade (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); sexo (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); número de diferentes prescritores (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); instituição de prescrição (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relação com o médico (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) e custo médio mensal por grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusões: O valor da persistência à terapêutica no segundo ano é ligeiramente acima do que é mencionado na literatura e não existem dados para comparar os resultados do terceiro ano. Relativamente ao efeito das co-variáveis no segundo e terceiro anos após o início do tratamento, os resultados são sobreponíveis, sendo que o sexo não está associado à persistência ao terceiro ano.----------------------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Therapy persistence is the time on any antidiabetic medication, from initiation of therapy to discontinuation of all medications or the end of the study period. The aim of the study was to analyse the therapy persistence in the second and third years after treatment initiation in newly diagnosed adult patients in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and to determine the effect of several co-variables in the long term persistence. Methods: A retrospective non-interventional study based on SIARS data (drug prescriptions and acquisitions) and Pordata was designed. Persistence was quantified as the percentage of patients that continued to purchase at least one type of antidiabetic at year 2 and 3 after the date of first prescription acquisition. Association between persistence at second and third years with each of the other co-variables were verified by using the Chi-Square test and odds ratio were calculated using a regression logistic model. Results: Therapy persistence obtained was 80% and 62% for the second and third years after treatment initiation. Odd ratios for second and third years: number of different pharmacotherapeutic groups (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); age (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); gender (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); number of different prescribers (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); institution of prescription (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relationship with the physician (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) and average cost per month and per pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusions: Second year therapy persistence value is slightly above of what is referenced in literature and no data was found to compare the third year value. Regarding the effect of the co-variables analysed at second and third years after treatment initiation, the results were overlapping with gender being not associated with persistence at the third year.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Production of polyhydroxyalkanoates from oil-containing substrates

Different oil-containing substrates, namely, used cooking oil (UCO), fatty acids-byproduct from biodiesel production (FAB) and olive oil deodorizer distillate (OODD) were tested as inexpensive carbon sources for the production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) using twelve bacterial strains, in batch experiments. The OODD and FAB were exploited for the first time as alternative substrates for PHA production. Among the tested bacterial strains, Cupriavidus necator and Pseudomonas resinovorans exhibited the most promising results, producing poly-3-hydroxybutyrate, P(3HB), form UCO and OODD and mcl-PHA mainly composed of 3-hydroxyoctanoate (3HO) and 3-hydroxydecanoate (3HD) monomers from OODD, respectively. Afterwards, these bacterial strains were cultivated in bioreactor. C. necator were cultivated in bioreactor using UCO as carbon source. Different feeding strategies were tested for the bioreactor cultivation of C. necator, namely, batch, exponential feeding and DO-stat mode. The highest overall PHA productivity (12.6±0.78 g L-1 day-1) was obtained using DO-stat mode. Apparently, the different feeding regimes had no impact on polymer thermal properties. However, differences in polymer‟s molecular mass distribution were observed. C. necator was also tested in batch and fed-batch modes using a different type of oil-containing substrate, extracted from spent coffee grounds (SCG) by super critical carbon dioxide (sc-CO2). Under fed-batch mode (DO-stat), the overall PHA productivity were 4.7 g L-1 day-1 with a storage yield of 0.77 g g-1. Results showed that SCG can be a bioresource for production of PHA with interesting properties. Furthermore, P. resinovorans was cultivated using OODD as substrate in bioreactor under fed-batch mode (pulse feeding regime). The polymer was highly amorphous, as shown by its low crystallinity of 6±0.2%, with low melting and glass transition temperatures of 36±1.2 and -16±0.8 ºC, respectively. Due to its sticky behavior at room temperature, adhesiveness and mechanical properties were also studied. Its shear bond strength for wood (67±9.4 kPa) and glass (65±7.3 kPa) suggests it may be used for the development of biobased glues. Bioreactor operation and monitoring with oil-containing substrates is very challenging, since this substrate is water immiscible. Thus, near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) was implemented for online monitoring of the C. necator cultivation with UCO, using a transflectance probe. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was applied to relate NIR spectra with biomass, UCO and PHA concentrations in the broth. The NIR predictions were compared with values obtained by offline reference methods. Prediction errors to these parameters were 1.18 g L-1, 2.37 g L-1 and 1.58 g L-1 for biomass, UCO and PHA, respectively, which indicates the suitability of the NIR spectroscopy method for online monitoring and as a method to assist bioreactor control. UCO and OODD are low cost substrates with potential to be used in PHA batch and fed-batch production. The use of NIR in this bioprocess also opened an opportunity for optimization and control of PHA production process.

Comparison of the fluorescent polarization (TDx) and the enzymatic competitive (EMIT 2000) immune assays for the measurement of cyclosporin A blood concentration

Evaluation of Cyclosporin A (CyA) blood concentration is imperative in solid organ transplantation in order to achieve maximal immunosuppression with the least side effects. We compared the results of whole blood concentrations of CyA in 50 blood samples simultaneously evaluated by the fluorescent polarization immune assay (TDx) and the enzymatic competitive immune assay (EMIT 2000). There was a strong correlation between both kits for any range of CyA blood concentration (R=0.99, p<0.001). The within-run and between-days coefficient of variation were less than 4% for both assays. The cost for each CyA measurement was 50% lower for the EMIT assay when compared to the TDx assay. We concluded that the EMIT is as accurate as the TDx in measuring CyA blood concentration and has the advantage of a lower cost, as well as the possibility of widespread access to the EMIT methodology in contrast to the TDx equipment, allowing the laboratory to perform several routines within a working day.

Building 3D City Models: Testing and Comparing Laser Scanning and Low-Cost UAV Data Using FOSS Technologies

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Wideband CMOS low noise amplifiers

Modern fully integrated receiver architectures, require inductorless circuits to achieve their potential low area, low cost, and low power. The low noise amplifier (LNA), which is a key block in such receivers, is investigated in this thesis. LNAs can be either narrowband or wideband. Narrowband LNAs use inductors and have very low noise figure, but they occupy a large area and require a technology with RF options to obtain inductors with high Q. Recently, wideband LNAs with noise and distortion cancelling, with passive loads have been proposed, which can have low NF, but have high power consumption. In this thesis the main goal is to obtain a very low area, low power, and low-cost wideband LNA. First, it is investigated a balun LNA with noise and distortion cancelling with active loads to boost the gain and reduce the noise figure (NF). The circuit is based on a conventional balun LNA with noise and distortion cancellation, using the combination of a common-gate (CG) stage and common-source (CS) stage. Simulation and measurements results, with a 130 nm CMOS technology, show that the gain is enhanced by about 3 dB and the NF is reduced by at least 0.5 dB, with a negligible impact on the circuit linearity (IIP3 is about 0 dBm). The total power dissipation is only 4.8 mW, and the active area is less than 50 x 50 m2 . It is also investigated a balun LNA in which the gain is boosted by using a double feedback structure.We propose to replace the load resistors by active loads, which can be used to implement local feedback loops (in the CG and CS stages). This will boost the gain and reduce the noise figure (NF). Simulation results, with the same 130 nm CMOS technology as above, show that the gain is 24 dB and NF is less than 2.7 dB. The total power dissipation is only 5.4 mW (since no extra blocks are required), leading to a figure-of-merit (FoM) of 3.8 mW

The implications of mandatory low-cost fuel provision

This work studies fuel retail firms’ strategic behavior in a two-dimensional product differentiation framework. Following the mandatory provision of “low-cost” fuel we consider that capacity constraints force firms to eliminate of one the previously offered qualities. Firms play a two-stage game choosing fuel qualities from three possibilities (low-cost, medium quality and high quality fuel) and then prices having exogenous opposite locations. In the highest level of consumers’ heterogeneity, a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exists in which firms both choose minimum quality differentiation. Consumers’ are worse off if no differentiation occurs in medium and high qualities. The effect over prices from the mandatory “low-cost” fuel law is ambiguous.