Agent-based modeling and simulation for the design of the future european Air Traffic Management system: the experience of CASSIOPEIA

The SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) program is an ambitious re-search and development initiative to design the future European air traffic man-agement (ATM) system. The study of the behavior of ATM systems using agent-based modeling and simulation tools can help the development of new methods to improve their performance. This paper presents an overview of existing agent-based approaches in air transportation (paying special attention to the challenges that exist for the design of future ATM systems) and, subsequently, describes a new agent-based approach that we proposed in the CASSIOPEIA project, which was developed according to the goals of the SESAR program. In our approach, we use agent models for different ATM stakeholders, and, in contrast to previous work, our solution models new collaborative decision processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of abstraction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practical tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three stud-ies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.

An agent-based approach for the design of the future european air traffic management system

This paper describes an agent-based approach for the simulation of air traffic management (ATM) in Europe that was designed to help analyze proposals for future ATM systems. This approach is able to represent new collaborative deci-sion processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of ab-straction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practi-cal tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three studies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.

Development of the infrastructure for a multi-agent traffic management system simulation

This document contains detailed description of the design and the implementation of a multi-agent application controlling traffic lights in a city together with a system for simulating traffic and testing. The goal of this thesis is to design and build a simplified intelligent and distributed solution to the problem with the traffic in the big cities following different good practices in order to allow future refining of the model of the real world. The problem of the traffic in the big cities is still a problem that cannot be solved. Not only is the increasing number of cars a reason for the traffic jams, but also the way the traffic is organized. Usually, the intersections with traffic lights are replaced by roundabouts or interchanges to increase the number of cars that can cross the intersection in certain time. But still there are places where the infrastructure cannot be changed and the traffic light semaphores are the only way to control the car flows. In real life, the traffic lights have a predefined plan for change or they receive information from a centralized system when and how they have to change. But what if the traffic lights can cooperate and decide on their own when and how to change? Using this problem, the purpose of the thesis is to explore different agent-based software engineering approaches to design and build a non-conventional distributed system. From the software engineering point of view, the goal of the thesis is to apply the knowledge and use the skills, acquired during the various courses of the master program in Software Engineering, while solving a practical and complex problem such as the traffic in the cities.

A Dynamically Adaptable Bus Architecture for Trading-Off Among Performance, Consumption and Dependability in Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-Physical Systems need to handle increasingly complex tasks, which additionally, may have variable operating conditions over time. Therefore, dynamic resource management to adapt the system to different needs is required. In this paper, a new bus-based architecture, called ARTICo3, which by means of Dynamic Partial Reconfiguration, allows the replication of hardware tasks to support module redundancy, multi-thread operation or dual-rail solutions for enhanced side-channel attack protection is presented. A configuration-aware data transaction unit permits data dispatching to more than one module in parallel, or provide coalesced data dispatching among different units to maximize the advantages of burst transactions. The selection of a given configuration is application independent but context-aware, which may be achieved by the combination of a multi-thread model similar to the CUDA kernel model specification, combined with a dynamic thread/task/kernel scheduler. A multi-kernel application for face recognition is used as an application example to show one scenario of the ARTICo3 architecture.

Asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in highly dependable systems

Abstract We consider a wide class of models that includes the highly reliable Markovian systems (HRMS) often used to represent the evolution of multi-component systems in reliability settings. Repair times and component lifetimes are random variables that follow a general distribution, and the repair service adopts a priority repair rule based on system failure risk. Since crude simulation has proved to be inefficient for highly-dependable systems, the RESTART method is used for the estimation of steady-state unavailability and other reliability measures. In this method, a number of simulation retrials are performed when the process enters regions of the state space where the chance of occurrence of a rare event (e.g., a system failure) is higher. The main difficulty involved in applying this method is finding a suitable function, called the importance function, to define the regions. In this paper we introduce an importance function which, for unbalanced systems, represents a great improvement over the importance function used in previous papers. We also demonstrate the asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in these models. Several examples are presented to show the effectiveness of the new approach, and probabilities up to the order of 10-42 are accurately estimated with little computational effort.

A Reliable Open-Source System Architecture for the Fast Designing and Prototyping of Autonomous Multi-UAV Systems: Simulation and Experimentation

During the process of design and development of an autonomous Multi-UAV System, two main problems appear. The first one is the difficulty of designing all the modules and behaviors of the aerial multi-robot system. The second one is the difficulty of having an autonomous prototype of the system for the developers that allows to test the performance of each module even in an early stage of the project. These two problems motivate this paper. A multipurpose system architecture for autonomous multi-UAV platforms is presented. This versatile system architecture can be used by the system designers as a template when developing their own systems. The proposed system architecture is general enough to be used in a wide range of applications, as demonstrated in the paper. This system architecture aims to be a reference for all designers. Additionally, to allow for the fast prototyping of autonomous multi-aerial systems, an Open Source framework based on the previously defined system architecture is introduced. It allows developers to have a flight proven multi-aerial system ready to use, so that they can test their algorithms even in an early stage of the project. The implementation of this framework, introduced in the paper with the name of “CVG Quadrotor Swarm”, which has also the advantages of being modular and compatible with different aerial platforms, can be found at https://​github.​com/​Vision4UAV/​cvg_​quadrotor_​swarm with a consistent catalog of available modules. The good performance of this framework is demonstrated in the paper by choosing a basic instance of it and carrying out simulation and experimental tests whose results are summarized and discussed in this paper.

The role of management incentives in successful information systems development and implementation

Because organizations are making large investments in Information systems (IS), efficient IS project management has been found critical to success. This study examines how the use of incentives can improve the project success. Agency theory is used to: identify motivational factors of project success, help the IS owners to understand to what extent management incentives can improve IS development and implementation (ISD/I). The outcomes will help practitioners and researchers to build on theoretical model of project management elements which lead to project success. Given the principal-agent nature of most significant scale of IS development, insights that will allow for greater alignment of the agent’s goals with those of the principal through incentive contracts, will serve to make ISD/I both more efficient and more effective, leading to more successful IS projects.

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

Efficient Bayesian inference for learning in the Ising linear perceptron and signal detection in CDMA

Efficient new Bayesian inference technique is employed for studying critical properties of the Ising linear perceptron and for signal detection in code division multiple access (CDMA). The approach is based on a recently introduced message passing technique for densely connected systems. Here we study both critical and non-critical regimes. Results obtained in the non-critical regime give rise to a highly efficient signal detection algorithm in the context of CDMA; while in the critical regime one observes a first-order transition line that ends in a continuous phase transition point. Finite size effects are also studied. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models

We propose and analyze two different Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models and compare their performance with the already known Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalization we draw learning curves in simplified situations for these algorithms and compare their performances.

Adaptive electrical signal post-processing in optical communications systems

Improving bit error rates in optical communication systems is a difficult and important problem. The error correction must take place at high speed and be extremely accurate. We show the feasibility of using hardware implementable machine learning techniques. This may enable some error correction at the speed required.

Simulating the value of collaboration in multi-actor conservation planning

The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent for conservation purposes on actions such as the acquisition and management of land, the rehabilitation of degraded habitats, and the purchase of easements from private landowners. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We use a modelling framework to explore this issue with a study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for conservation. We apply our model to simulated data using distributions taken from real data to simulate the cost of patches and the rarity and co-occurence of species. In our model each agent attempted to implement a conservation network that met its target for the minimum cost using the conservation planning software Marxan. We examine three scenarios where the conservation targets of the agents differ. The first scenario (called NGO-NGO) models the situation where two NGOs are both are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios (called NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO, respectively) represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing all species, while an NGO is focused on achieving additional protection for the most endangered species. For each of these scenarios we examined three types of interactions between agents: i) acting in isolation where the agents are attempting to achieve their targets solely though their own actions ii) sharing information where each agent is aware of the species representation achieved within the other agent’s conservation network and, iii) pooling resources where agents combine their resources and undertake conservation actions as a single entity. The latter two interactions represent different types of collaborations and in each scenario we determine the cost savings from sharing information or pooling resources. In each case we examined the utility of these interactions from the viewpoint of the combined conservation network resulting from both agents' actions, as well as from each agent’s individual perspective. The costs for each agent to achieve their objectives varied depending on the order in which the agents acted, the type of interaction between agents, and the specific goals of each agent. There were significant cost savings from increased collaboration via sharing information in the NGO-NGO scenario were the agent’s representation goals were mutually exclusive (in terms of specie targeted). In the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios, collaboration generated much smaller savings. If the two agents collaborate by pooling resources there are multiple ways the total cost could be shared between both agents. For each scenario we investigate the costs and benefits for all possible cost sharing proportions. We find that there are a range of cost sharing proportions where both agents can benefit in the NGO-NGO scenarios while the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios again showed little benefit. Although the model presented here has a range of simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates that the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. The model demonstrates a method for determining the range of collaboration costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.

An investigation into inductive parameter learning in complex hierarchical knowledge structures representing clinical expertise

This dissertation investigates the very important and current problem of modelling human expertise. This is an apparent issue in any computer system emulating human decision making. It is prominent in Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) due to the complexity of the induction process and the vast number of parameters in most cases. Other issues such as human error and missing or incomplete data present further challenges. In this thesis, the Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is used as an example of modelling clinical expertise and parameter elicitation. The tool is a mental health clinical record management system with a top layer of decision support capabilities. It is currently being deployed by several NHS mental health trusts across the UK. The aim of the research is to investigate the problem of parameter elicitation by inducing them from real clinical data rather than from the human experts who provided the decision model. The induced parameters provide an insight into both the data relationships and how experts make decisions themselves. The outcomes help further understand human decision making and, in particular, help GRiST provide more accurate emulations of risk judgements. Although the algorithms and methods presented in this dissertation are applied to GRiST, they can be adopted for other human knowledge engineering domains.