Seismic Risk Scenarios in Puerto Principe (Haiti). A Tool for Reconstruction and Emergency Planning

The 12 January 2010, an earthquake hit the city of Port-au-Prince, capital of Haiti. The earthquake reached a magnitude Mw 7.0 and the epicenter was located near the town of Léogâne, approximately 25 km west of the capital. The earthquake occurred in the boundary region separating the Caribbean plate and the North American plate. This plate boundary is dominated by left-lateral strike slip motion and compression, and accommodates about 20 mm/y slip, with the Caribbean plate moving eastward with respect to the North American plate (DeMets et al., 2000). Initially the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system (EPGFZ), however Hayes et al., (2010) combined seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process involved slip on multiple faults. Besides, the authors showed that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the EPGFZ. In December 2010, a Spanish cooperation project financed by the Politechnical University of Madrid started with a clear objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. One of the tasks of the project was devoted to vulnerability assessment of the current building stock and the estimation of seismic risk scenarios. The study was carried out by following the capacity spectrum method as implemented in the software SELENA (Molina et al., 2010). The method requires a detailed classification of the building stock in predominant building typologies (according to the materials in the structure and walls, number of stories and age of construction) and the use of the building (residential, commercial, etc.). Later, the knowledge of the soil characteristics of the city and the simulation of a scenario earthquake will provide the seismic risk scenarios (damaged buildings). The initial results of the study show that one of the highest sources of uncertainties comes from the difficulty of achieving a precise building typologies classification due to the craft construction without any regulations. Also it is observed that although the occurrence of big earthquakes usually helps to decrease the vulnerability of the cities due to the collapse of low quality buildings and the reconstruction of seismically designed buildings, in the case of Port-au-Prince the seismic risk in most of the districts remains high, showing very vulnerable areas. Therefore the local authorities have to drive their efforts towards the quality control of the new buildings, the reinforcement of the existing building stock, the establishment of seismic normatives and the development of emergency planning also through the education of the population.

Modelling Pinus pinea forest management to attain natural regeneration under present and future climatic scenarios

Natural regeneration-based silviculture has been increasingly regarded as a reliable option in sustainable forest management. However, successful natural regeneration is not always easy to achieve. Recently, new concerns have arisen because of changing future climate. To date, regeneration models have proved helpful in decision-making concerning natural regeneration. The implementation of such models into optimization routines is a promising approach in providing forest managers with accurate tools for forest planning. In the present study, we present a stochastic multistage regeneration model for Pinus pinea L. managed woodlands in Central Spain, where regeneration has been historically unsuccessful. The model is able to quantify recruitment under different silviculture alternatives and varying climatic scenarios, with further application to optimize management scheduling. The regeneration process in the species showed high between-year variation, with all subprocesses (seed production, dispersal, germination, predation, and seedling survival) having the potential to become bottlenecks. However, model simulations demonstrate that current intensive management is responsible for regeneration failure in the long term. Specifically, stand densities at rotation age are too low to guarantee adequate dispersal, the optimal density of seed-producing trees being around 150 stems·ha−1. In addition, rotation length needs to be extended up to 120 years to benefit from the higher seed production of older trees. Stochastic optimization confirms these results. Regeneration does not appear to worsen under climate change conditions; the species exhibiting resilience worthy of broader consideration in Mediterranean silviculture.

Behavior of Ad Hoc routing protocols, analyzed for emergency and rescue scenarios, on a real urban area

A mobile Ad Hoc network (MANET) is a collection of wireless mobile nodes that can dynamically configure a network without a fixed infrastructure or central administration. This makes it ideal for emergency and rescue scenarios, where sharing information is essential and should occur as soon as possible. This article discusses which of the routing strategies for mobile MANETs: proactive, reactive or hierarchical, has a better performance in such scenarios. By selecting a real urban area for the emergency and rescue scenario, we calculated the density of nodes and the mobility model needed for the validation study of AODV, DSDV and CBRP in the routing model. The NS2 simulator has been used for our study. We also show that the hierarchical routing strategies are better suited for this type of scenarios.

E-Flow: A communication system for user notification in dynamic evacuation scenarios

Most of the current evacuation plans are based on static signaling, fixed monitoring infrastructure, and limited user notification and feedback mechanisms. These facts lead to lower situation awareness, in the case event of an emergency, such as blocked emergency exits, while delaying the reaction time of individuals. In this context, we introduce the E-Flow communication system, which improves the user awareness by integrating personal, mobile and fixed devices with the existing monitoring infrastructure. Our system broadens the notification and monitoring alternatives, in real time, among, safety staff, end-users and evacuation related devices, such as sensors and actuators.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CPESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U?Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR_EVOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of scenarios and breakdown of LCOE contributors rather than provision of absolute values, as technological readiness levels are low for most of the advanced fuel cycle stages. The obtained estimations show an increase of LCOE ? averaged over the whole period ? with respect to the reference open cycle scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios. The main contribution to LCOE is the capital costs of new facilities, quantified between 60% and 69% depending on the scenario. An uncertainty analysis is provided around assumed low and high values of processes and technologies.

Sistema de simulación de escenarios de ciclos avanzados de combustible nuclear en transición = Simulation system for advanced fuel cycle transition scenarios

El estudio de los ciclos del combustible nuclear requieren de herramientas computacionales o "códigos" versátiles para dar respuestas al problema multicriterio de evaluar los actuales ciclos o las capacidades de las diferentes estrategias y escenarios con potencial de desarrollo en a nivel nacional, regional o mundial. Por otra parte, la introducción de nuevas tecnologías para reactores y procesos industriales hace que los códigos existentes requieran nuevas capacidades para evaluar la transición del estado actual del ciclo del combustible hacia otros más avanzados y sostenibles. Brevemente, esta tesis se centra en dar respuesta a las principales preguntas, en términos económicos y de recursos, al análisis de escenarios de ciclos de combustible, en particular, para el análisis de los diferentes escenarios del ciclo del combustible de relativa importancia para España y Europa. Para alcanzar este objetivo ha sido necesaria la actualización y el desarrollo de nuevas capacidades del código TR_EVOL (Transition Evolution code). Este trabajo ha sido desarrollado en el Programa de Innovación Nuclear del CIEMAT desde el año 2010. Esta tesis se divide en 6 capítulos. El primer capítulo ofrece una visión general del ciclo de combustible nuclear, sus principales etapas y los diferentes tipos utilizados en la actualidad o en desarrollo para el futuro. Además, se describen las fuentes de material nuclear que podrían ser utilizadas como combustible (uranio y otros). También se puntualizan brevemente una serie de herramientas desarrolladas para el estudio de estos ciclos de combustible nuclear. El capítulo 2 está dirigido a dar una idea básica acerca de los costes involucrados en la generación de electricidad mediante energía nuclear. Aquí se presentan una clasificación de estos costos y sus estimaciones, obtenidas en la bibliografía, y que han sido evaluadas y utilizadas en esta tesis. Se ha incluido también una breve descripción del principal indicador económico utilizado en esta tesis, el “coste nivelado de la electricidad”. El capítulo 3 se centra en la descripción del código de simulación desarrollado para el estudio del ciclo del combustible nuclear, TR_EVOL, que ha sido diseñado para evaluar diferentes opciones de ciclos de combustibles. En particular, pueden ser evaluados las diversos reactores con, posiblemente, diferentes tipos de combustibles y sus instalaciones del ciclo asociadas. El módulo de evaluaciones económica de TR_EVOL ofrece el coste nivelado de la electricidad haciendo uso de las cuatro fuentes principales de información económica y de la salida del balance de masas obtenido de la simulación del ciclo en TR_EVOL. Por otra parte, la estimación de las incertidumbres en los costes también puede ser efectuada por el código. Se ha efectuado un proceso de comprobación cruzada de las funcionalidades del código y se descrine en el Capítulo 4. El proceso se ha aplicado en cuatro etapas de acuerdo con las características más importantes de TR_EVOL, balance de masas, composición isotópica y análisis económico. Así, la primera etapa ha consistido en el balance masas del ciclo de combustible nuclear actual de España. La segunda etapa se ha centrado en la comprobación de la composición isotópica del flujo de masas mediante el la simulación del ciclo del combustible definido en el proyecto CP-ESFR UE. Las dos últimas etapas han tenido como objetivo validar el módulo económico. De este modo, en la tercera etapa han sido evaluados los tres principales costes (financieros, operación y mantenimiento y de combustible) y comparados con los obtenidos por el proyecto ARCAS, omitiendo los costes del fin del ciclo o Back-end, los que han sido evaluado solo en la cuarta etapa, haciendo uso de costes unitarios y parámetros obtenidos a partir de la bibliografía. En el capítulo 5 se analizan dos grupos de opciones del ciclo del combustible nuclear de relevante importancia, en términos económicos y de recursos, para España y Europa. Para el caso español, se han simulado dos grupos de escenarios del ciclo del combustible, incluyendo estrategias de reproceso y extensión de vida de los reactores. Este análisis se ha centrado en explorar las ventajas y desventajas de reprocesado de combustible irradiado en un país con una “relativa” pequeña cantidad de reactores nucleares. Para el grupo de Europa se han tratado cuatro escenarios, incluyendo opciones de transmutación. Los escenarios incluyen los reactores actuales utilizando la tecnología reactor de agua ligera y ciclo abierto, un reemplazo total de los reactores actuales con reactores rápidos que queman combustible U-Pu MOX y dos escenarios del ciclo del combustible con transmutación de actínidos minoritarios en una parte de los reactores rápidos o en sistemas impulsados por aceleradores dedicados a transmutación. Finalmente, el capítulo 6 da las principales conclusiones obtenidas de esta tesis y los trabajos futuros previstos en el campo del análisis de ciclos de combustible nuclear. ABSTRACT The study of the nuclear fuel cycle requires versatile computational tools or “codes” to provide answers to the multicriteria problem of assessing current nuclear fuel cycles or the capabilities of different strategies and scenarios with potential development in a country, region or at world level. Moreover, the introduction of new technologies for reactors and industrial processes makes the existing codes to require new capabilities to assess the transition from current status of the fuel cycle to the more advanced and sustainable ones. Briefly, this thesis is focused in providing answers to the main questions about resources and economics in fuel cycle scenario analyses, in particular for the analysis of different fuel cycle scenarios with relative importance for Spain and Europe. The upgrade and development of new capabilities of the TR_EVOL code (Transition Evolution code) has been necessary to achieve this goal. This work has been developed in the Nuclear Innovation Program at CIEMAT since year 2010. This thesis is divided in 6 chapters. The first one gives an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle, its main stages and types currently used or in development for the future. Besides the sources of nuclear material that could be used as fuel (uranium and others) are also viewed here. A number of tools developed for the study of these nuclear fuel cycles are also briefly described in this chapter. Chapter 2 is aimed to give a basic idea about the cost involved in the electricity generation by means of the nuclear energy. The main classification of these costs and their estimations given by bibliography, which have been evaluated in this thesis, are presented. A brief description of the Levelized Cost of Electricity, the principal economic indicator used in this thesis, has been also included. Chapter 3 is focused on the description of the simulation tool TR_EVOL developed for the study of the nuclear fuel cycle. TR_EVOL has been designed to evaluate different options for the fuel cycle scenario. In particular, diverse nuclear power plants, having possibly different types of fuels and the associated fuel cycle facilities can be assessed. The TR_EVOL module for economic assessments provides the Levelized Cost of Electricity making use of the TR_EVOL mass balance output and four main sources of economic information. Furthermore, uncertainties assessment can be also carried out by the code. A cross checking process of the performance of the code has been accomplished and it is shown in Chapter 4. The process has been applied in four stages according to the most important features of TR_EVOL. Thus, the first stage has involved the mass balance of the current Spanish nuclear fuel cycle. The second stage has been focused in the isotopic composition of the mass flow using the fuel cycle defined in the EU project CP-ESFR. The last two stages have been aimed to validate the economic module. In the third stage, the main three generation costs (financial cost, O&M and fuel cost) have been assessed and compared to those obtained by ARCAS project, omitting the back-end costs. This last cost has been evaluated alone in the fourth stage, making use of some unit cost and parameters obtained from the bibliography. In Chapter 5 two groups of nuclear fuel cycle options with relevant importance for Spain and Europe are analyzed in economic and resources terms. For the Spanish case, two groups of fuel cycle scenarios have been simulated including reprocessing strategies and life extension of the current reactor fleet. This analysis has been focused on exploring the advantages and disadvantages of spent fuel reprocessing in a country with relatively small amount of nuclear power plants. For the European group, four fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor technology and open fuel cycle, a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycle scenarios with Minor Actinide transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems. Finally, Chapter 6 gives the main conclusions obtained from this thesis and the future work foreseen in the field of nuclear fuel cycle analysis.

A novel energy-driven computing paradigm for e-health scenarios

A first-rate e-Health system saves lives, provides better patient care, allows complex but useful epidemiologic analysis and saves money. However, there may also be concerns about the costs and complexities associated with e-health implementation, and the need to solve issues about the energy footprint of the high-demanding computing facilities. This paper proposes a novel and evolved computing paradigm that: (i) provides the required computing and sensing resources; (ii) allows the population-wide diffusion; (iii) exploits the storage, communication and computing services provided by the Cloud; (iv) tackles the energy-optimization issue as a first-class requirement, taking it into account during the whole development cycle. The novel computing concept and the multi-layer top-down energy-optimization methodology obtain promising results in a realistic scenario for cardiovascular tracking and analysis, making the Home Assisted Living a reality.

Modelling agro-forestry scenarios for ammonia abatement in the landscape

Ammonia emissions from livestock production can have negative impacts on nearby protected sites and ecosystems that are sensitive to eutrophication and acidification. Trees are effective scavengers of both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere making tree belts potentially effective landscape features to support strategies aiming to reduce ammonia impacts. This research used the MODDAS-THETIS a coupled turbulence and deposition turbulence model, to examine the relationships between tree canopy structure and ammonia capture for three source types?animal housing, slurry lagoon, and livestock under a tree canopy. By altering the canopy length, leaf area index, leaf area density, and height of the canopy in the model the capture efficiencies varied substantially. A maximum of 27% of the emitted ammonia was captured by tree canopy for the animal housing source, for the slurry lagoon the maximum was 19%, while the livestock under trees attained a maximum of 60% recapture. Using agro-forestry systems of differing tree structures near ?hot spots? of ammonia in the landscape could provide an effective abatement option for the livestock industry that complements existing source reduction measures.

Behavior of several two-dimensional fluid equations in singular scenarios

We give conditions that rule out formation of sharp fronts for certain two-dimensional incompressible flows. We show that a necessary condition of having a sharp front is that the flow has to have uncontrolled velocity growth. In the case of the quasi-geostrophic equation and two-dimensional Euler equation, we obtain estimates on the formation of semi-uniform fronts.

The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

Improving kNN multi-label classification in Prototype Selection scenarios using class proposals

Prototype Selection (PS) algorithms allow a faster Nearest Neighbor classification by keeping only the most profitable prototypes of the training set. In turn, these schemes typically lower the performance accuracy. In this work a new strategy for multi-label classifications tasks is proposed to solve this accuracy drop without the need of using all the training set. For that, given a new instance, the PS algorithm is used as a fast recommender system which retrieves the most likely classes. Then, the actual classification is performed only considering the prototypes from the initial training set belonging to the suggested classes. Results show that this strategy provides a large set of trade-off solutions which fills the gap between PS-based classification efficiency and conventional kNN accuracy. Furthermore, this scheme is not only able to, at best, reach the performance of conventional kNN with barely a third of distances computed, but it does also outperform the latter in noisy scenarios, proving to be a much more robust approach.

Keys: Kenya youth scenarios, 2011

Kenya youth scenarios are projections of alternative pathways into the future that explore the dynamic interaction between the social, political, technological, environmental and economic forces operating within a given context (such as a nation or local communtiy). It is important to note that scenarios are not predictions of what will happen, but rather, identify what may happen.

An Exploration of the challenges associated with software logging in large systems

Thesis (Master, Computing) -- Queen's University, 2016-05-29 18:11:34.114