Sedimentological and paleomagnetic investigations on two gravity cores and ODP sites 113-690 and 693 off Kapp Norvegia, Antarctic continental margin

Oligocene to Quaternary sediments were recovered from the Antarctic continental margin in the eastern Weddell Sea during ODP Leg 113 and Polarstern expedition ANT-VI. Clay mineral composition and grain size distribution patterns are useful for distinguishing sediments that have been transported by ocean currents from those that were ice-rafted. This, in turn, has assisted in providing insights about the changing late Paleogene to Neogene sedimentary environment as the cryosphere developed in Antarctica. During the middle Oligocene, increasing glacial conditions on the continent are indicated by the presence of glauconite sands, that are interpreted to have formed on the shelf and then transported down the continental slope by advancing glaciers or as a result of sea-level lowering. The dominance of illite and a relatively high content of chlorite suggest predominantly physical weathering conditions on the continent. The high content of biogenic opal from the late Miocene to the late Pliocene resulted from increased upwelling processes at the continental margin due to increased wind strength related to global cooling. Partial melting of the ice-sheet occurred during an early Pliocene climate optimum as is shown by an increasing supply of predominantly current-derived sediment with a low mean grain size and peak values of smectite. Primary productivity decreased at ~ 3 Ma due to the development of a permanent sea-ice cover close to the continent. Late Pleistocene sediments are characterized by planktonic foraminifers and biogenic opal, concentrated in distinct horizons reflecting climatic cycles. Isotopic analysis of AT. pachyderma produced a stratigraphy which resulted in a calculated sedimentation rate of 1 cm/k.y. during the Pleistocene. Primary productivity was highest during the last three interglacial maxima and decreased during glacial episodes as a result of increasing sea-ice coverage.

Sedimentological investigations of a sediment core profile from the continental slope of the South Orkney Islands

Sediment patterns such as texture, composition, and facies from three selected areas of the Antarctic continental margin of the Weddell Sea are discussed in relation to environmental variations of the Quaternary hydrosphere and kryosphere. Advance and retreat of ice shelves as well as oscillations in sea ice coverage are reflected by particular sediment facies. The distribution of ice-rafted detritus tracks the Antarctic Coastal Current, and the Weddell Sea Bottom water contour current can be recognized by its distinctive winnowing and erosion pattern. Distribution and abundance of biogenic sediment components are mainly controlled by duration of sea ice coverage reflecting the long-term climatic evolution.

Sedimentology on cores off Filchner Shelf Ice, Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Sediment sampling with box corer and gravity corer was conducted along a profile parallel to the Filchner/Rønne Ice Shelf, from 48° to 61°W. Twenty-two sampling locations were determined after evaluation of 12 and 3.5 kHz sub-bottom profiling records. The sediment retrievals show a wide diversity, varying from very well sorted pure sands in the SE of the profile to heavily glacially influenced, pebbly muds close to the foot of the Antarctic Peninsula. In the middle part of the profile mainly soft sediments of muddy to sandy muds were found which were partially influenced by glacially derived dropstones or accumulations of pebble-sized material. The striking changes of surface sediments (marine to glacial) observed along the profile led to an attempt to investigate the concurrence of marine and glacial depositional processes controlling the accumulation of these recent sediments.

Geochemistry, grain sizes and radiocarbon age of sediment core Lz1005 from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica

The clay mineralogical composition of a 552 cm long sediment core from Lake Terrasovoje in Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, was analysed and compared with that in surface sediments from other locations in the vicinity. The lower part of the sediment core is formed by sub- and proglacial sediments with a dominance of smectite and illite, and lower amounts of kaolinite and chlorite. The upper part of the core is deposited after 12 500 cal yr bp and mainly composed of illite and kaolinite, with low amounts of smectite and chlorite, such as found in samples from rock outcrops and covering sediments throughout Amery Oasis. The clay composition in the lower section of core Lz1005 suggest that the basin of Lake Terrasovoje was filled by a 150-200 m thickened Nemesis Glacier prior to 12 500 cal yr bp rather than by local ice caps.

Grain size composition of sediment cores from the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Sedimentary processes in the southeastern Weddell Sea are influenced by glacial-interglacial ice-shelf dynamics and the cyclonic circulation of the Weddell Gyre, which affects all water masses down to the sea floor. Significantly increased sedimentation rates occur during glacial stages, when ice sheets advance to the shelf edge and trigger gravitational sediment transport to the deep sea. Downslope transport on the Crary Fan and off Dronning Maud and Coats Land is channelized into three huge channel systems, which originate on the eastern-, the central and the western Crary Fan. They gradually turn from a northerly direction eastward until they follow a course parallel to the continental slope. All channels show strongly asymmetric cross sections with well-developed levees on their northwestern sides, forming wedge-shaped sediment bodies. They level off very gently. Levees on the southeastern sides are small, if present at all. This characteristic morphology likely results from the process of combined turbidite-contourite deposition. Strong thermohaline currents of the Weddell Gyre entrain particles from turbidity-current suspensions, which flow down the channels, and carry them westward out of the channel where they settle on a surface gently dipping away from the channel. These sediments are intercalated with overbank deposits of high-energy and high-volume turbidity currents, which preferentially flood the left of the channels (looking downchannel) as a result of Coriolis force. In the distal setting of the easternmost channel-levee complex, where thermohaline currents are directed northeastward as a result of a recirculation of water masses from the Enderby Basin, the setting and the internal structures of a wedge-shaped sediment body indicate a contourite drift rather than a channel levee. Dating of the sediments reveals that the levees in their present form started to develop with a late Miocene cooling event, which caused an expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and an invigoration of thermohaline current activity.

Variability in Modified Estimators of VaR and ES

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Bayesian estimation of g-and-k distributions using MCMC

In this paper we investigate a Bayesian procedure for the estimation of a flexible generalised distribution, notably the MacGillivray adaptation of the g-and-κ distribution. This distribution, described through its inverse cdf or quantile function, generalises the standard normal through extra parameters which together describe skewness and kurtosis. The standard quantile-based methods for estimating the parameters of generalised distributions are often arbitrary and do not rely on computation of the likelihood. MCMC, however, provides a simulation-based alternative for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of these distributions or for deriving posterior estimates of the parameters through a Bayesian framework. In this paper we adopt the latter approach, The proposed methodology is illustrated through an application in which the parameter of interest is slightly skewed.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Convergence analysis of a discrete-time single-unit gradient ICA algorithm

We revisit the one-unit gradient ICA algorithm derived from the kurtosis function. By carefully studying properties of the stationary points of the discrete-time one-unit gradient ICA algorithm, with suitable condition on the learning rate, convergence can be proved. The condition on the learning rate helps alleviate the guesswork that accompanies the problem of choosing suitable learning rate in practical computation. These results may be useful to extract independent source signals on-line.

Non-normally distributed data and non-parametric statistics

Different types of numerical data can be collected in a scientific investigation and the choice of statistical analysis will often depend on the distribution of the data. A basic distinction between variables is whether they are ‘parametric’ or ‘non-parametric’. When a variable is parametric, the data come from a symmetrically shaped distribution known as the ‘Gaussian’ or ‘normal distribution’ whereas non-parametric variables may have a distribution which deviates markedly in shape from normal. This article describes several aspects of the problem of non-normality including: (1) how to test for two common types of deviation from a normal distribution, viz., ‘skew’ and ‘kurtosis’, (2) how to fit the normal distribution to a sample of data, (3) the transformation of non-normally distributed data and scores, and (4) commonly used ‘non-parametric’ statistics which can be used in a variety of circumstances.