The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt–equity yield ratio

Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.

Key conclusions of the first international urban land surface model comparison project

he first international urban land surface model comparison was designed to identify three aspects of the urban surface-atmosphere interactions: (1) the dominant physical processes, (2) the level of complexity required to model these, and 3) the parameter requirements for such a model. Offline simulations from 32 land surface schemes, with varying complexity, contributed to the comparison. Model results were analysed within a framework of physical classifications and over four stages. The results show that the following are important urban processes; (i) multiple reflections of shortwave radiation within street canyons, (ii) reduction in the amount of visible sky from within the canyon, which impacts on the net long-wave radiation, iii) the contrast in surface temperatures between building roofs and street canyons, and (iv) evaporation from vegetation. Models that use an appropriate bulk albedo based on multiple solar reflections, represent building roof surfaces separately from street canyons and include a representation of vegetation demonstrate more skill, but require parameter information on the albedo, height of the buildings relative to the width of the streets (height to width ratio), the fraction of building roofs compared to street canyons from a plan view (plan area fraction) and the fraction of the surface that is vegetated. These results, whilst based on a single site and less than 18 months of data, have implications for the future design of urban land surface models, the data that need to be measured in urban observational campaigns, and what needs to be included in initiatives for regional and global parameter databases.

Liquidity effects and FFA returns in the international shipping derivatives market

The study examines the impact of liquidity risk on freight derivatives returns. The Amihud liquidity ratio and bid–ask spreads are utilized to assess the existence of liquidity risk in the freight derivatives market. Other macroeconomic variables are used to control for market risk. Results indicate that liquidity risk is priced and both liquidity measures have a significant role in determining freight derivatives returns. Consistent with expectations, both liquidity measures are found to have positive and significant effects on the returns of freight derivatives. The results have important implications for modeling freight derivatives, and consequently, for trading and risk management purposes.

Spatial regulation and international differences in housebuilding industries

Housebuilding firms vary across the world in size and in the scope of their activities. This variety may seem surprising in an industry with open technologies and ease of entry. While market and technological factors may go some way to explain such differences, much of the causes of variation lie in dissimilarities in regulatory and institutional frameworks. These themes are explored through a comparative analysis of the structure of the residential development industry in Australia, the UK and the USA and in analysis of firm size hierarchies. The firm concentration ratio is much higher in the UK than the other two countries and the reasons may lie in the geography of the country but also in the peculiarities of its planning system.

First molecular estimate of sex-ratio of southern right whale calves, Eubalaena australis, for Brazilian waters

The southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) was one of the most intensively hunted whales between the 17th and 20th centuries in the southern hemisphere. Recent estimates indicate that today there are around 7000 whales, representing 5 to 10% Of its original population. On the other hand, recent studies estimated that the population that migrates to the Brazilian coast grew by 14% from 1987 to 2003. However, there is no information about sex-ratio for adults or for calves in this region, which is an important parameter for understanding the biology of the species. We present here the first estimate Of calves` sex-ratio of southern right whales found along the southern Brazilian coast, one of the most important wintering grounds for the species. Sex was molecularly indentified for 21 biopsies collected from calves between 1998 and 2002, along the coast of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina States, in southern Brazil. The sex-ratio was two females for one male, however, it was not statistically different (chi(2) test, alpha = 0.05; df = 1) from the expected ratio of 1:1. This result is in accordance with the sex-ratio estimated for the species of all ages using external morphology (and behaviour in formation), (is well as for most species of baleen whales.

Compliance com os requisitos de divulgação do IFRS - International Financial Reporting Standards e sua relação com o erro de previsão dos analistas de mercado

O objetivo deste estudo é fazer uma análise da relação entre o erro de previsão dos analistas de mercado quanto à rentabilidade das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA S.A. (Bovespa) e os requerimentos de divulgação do International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Isto foi feito através da regressão do erro de previsão dos analistas, utilizando a metodologia de dados em painel no ano de implantação do IFRS no Brasil, 2010, e, complementarmente em 2012, para referenciamento desses dados. Partindo desse pressuposto, foi determinado o erro de previsão das empresas listadas na Bovespa através de dados de rentabilidade (índice de lucro por ação/earnings per share) previstos e realizados, disponíveis nas bases de dados I/B/E/S Earnings Consensus Information, providos pela plataforma Thomson ONE Investment Banking e Economática Pro®, respectivamente. Os resultados obtidos indicam uma relação negativa entre o erro de previsão e o cumprimento dos requisitos de divulgação do IFRS, ou seja, quanto maior a qualidade nas informações divulgadas, menor o erro de previsão dos analistas. Portanto, esses resultados sustentam a perspectiva de que o grau de cumprimento das normas contábeis é tão ou mais importante do que as próprias normas. Adicionalmente, foi verificado que quando a empresa listada na BM&FBOVESPA é vinculada a Agência Reguladora, seu erro de previsão não é alterado. Por fim, esses resultados sugerem que é importante que haja o aprimoramento dos mecanismos de auditoria das firmas quanto ao cumprimento dos requerimentos normativos de divulgação, tais como: penalidades pela não observância da norma (enforcement), estruturas de governança corporativa e auditorias interna e externa.

Publication Bias in Five Dental Implant Journals: An Observation from 2005 to 2009

Purpose: This study evaluated possible publication bias and its related factors in implant-related research over time. Materials and Methods: Articles published in Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Clinical Oral Implants Research, Implant Dentistry, Journal of Oral Implantology, and The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants between 2005 and 2009 were reviewed. Nonoriginal articles were excluded. For each article included, study outcome, extramural funding source, type of study, and geographic origin were recorded. Descriptive and analytic statistics (alpha = .05), including the chi-square test and logistic regression analysis, were performed where appropriate. Results: From a total of 2,085 articles, 1,503 met the inclusion criteria. of the articles analyzed, 1,226 (81.6%), 160 (10.6%), and 117 (7.8%) articles reported positive, negative, and neutral outcomes, respectively. In vitro studies, studies from Asia, and funded animal studies were more likely to report positive outcomes compared to others (P = .02, P < .0001, and P = .009, respectively). Industry-funded studies represented the lowest frequency of positive outcomes versus studies funded by other sources. Conclusions: There were a high number of implant-related studies reporting positive outcomes in the five selected journals. Some selected factors were associated with positive outcome bias. In general, funding was not associated with a positive outcome, except for animal studies. Industry-supported research did not show any association with the publication of positive outcomes. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2011;26:1024-1032

International trade in Latina America and the Caribbean 2009: crisis and recovery

Includes bibliography

International migration and development in the Americas

Includes bibliography

Architecture for publication and universal access to smart transducers

This paper proposes a simple and powerful architecture for publication and universal access to smart transducers, through existing and established open standards. Smart transducers are put to work on standards and styles already included in the Web, exploring resources in Cloud Computing and simplifying access to data. © 2012 IEEE.

SFlt-1/PlGF ratio as a prognostic marker of adverse outcomes in women with early-onset preeclampsia

Soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) is an anti-angiogenic factor released in higher amounts by preeclamptic placentas and it has been implicated in the endothelial dysfunction observed in the disease. In this study we evaluated if circulating sFlt-1/PlGF ratio is useful to predict adverse outcomes in women with early-onset preeclampsia. This is a cohort study of 88 preeclamptic women with singleton pregnancies at ≤35 weeks of gestation. According to definitions used, adverse outcomes occurred in 46.5% (N = 43) of the patients. The median sFlt1/PlGF ratio (25th-75th centile) for all patients evaluated was of 42.26 (13.1-226.1). The median sFlt-1/PlGF ratio among women who had any adverse outcome (N = 43) versus no adverse outcomes (N = 45) was of 227.6 (80.3-346.1) versus 14.4 (3.35-30.0), (P < 0.0001). According to our analyses a sFlt-1/PlGF ratio cut-point of ≥85 gave a sensitivity of 74.0% and specificity of 97.0%. The positive predictive value and the negative predictive value were 96.0% and 80.0%, respectively. The median sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (25th-75th centile) for patients who delivered within <7 days was 260.0 (127.7-404.7) as compared to 14.4 (3.35-34.97) for those patients who delivered within two weeks or more (P < 0.0001). Our results suggest that sFlt-1/PlGF ratio is a promising marker for adverse outcomes in women with early-onset preeclampsia. © 2013 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International trade and inclusive development: Building synergies

Foreword by Alicia Bárcena.

Workshop on public participation in international negotiations on environmental matters: Panel on environmental justice and access rights for sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean

This publication was prepared with financial support from the United Nations Development Account and the project “Addressing critical socio-environmental challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean ”

Bacterial and chemical leaching of chalcopyrite concentrates as affected by the redox potential and ferric/ferrous iron ratio at 22 degrees C

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Benefits of soil carbon: report on the outcomes of an international scientific committee on problems of the environment rapid assessment workshop

A Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment Rapid Assessment (SCOPE-RAP) workshop was held on 18-22 March 2013. This workshop was hosted by the European Commission, JRC Centre at Ispra, Italy, and brought together 40 leading experts from Africa, Asia, Europe and North and South America to create four synthesis chapters aimed at identifying knowledge gaps, research requirements, and policy innovations. Given the forthcoming publication by CABI of a book volume of the outcomes of the SCOPE-RAP in 2014, this workshop report provides an update on the global societal challenge of soil carbon management and some of the main issues and solutions that were identified in the four working sessions.