Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

South American seasonally-dry tropical forests (SDTF) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12,000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8,000 and 7,000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined, but severe regional droughts persisted through the mid-Holocene, SDTF, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTF are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Presence of a Diurnally Varying Heat Source

Resonant interactions among equatorial waves in the presence of a diurnally varying heat source are studied in the context of the diabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations for a motionless, hydrostatic, horizontally homogeneous and stably stratified background atmosphere. The heat source is assumed to be periodic in time and of small amplitude [i.e., O(epsilon)] and is prescribed to roughly represent the typical heating associated with deep convection in the tropical atmosphere. In this context, using the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the free linear Rossby, Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves, as well as their vertical structures, are obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves are shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(e) approximation, and the dynamics of these interactions have been studied in the presence of the forcing. It is shown that for the planetary-scale wave resonant triads composed of two first baroclinic equatorially trapped waves and one barotropic Rossby mode, the spectrum of the thermal forcing is such that only one of the triad components is resonant with the heat source. As a result, to illustrate the role of the diurnal forcing in these interactions in a simplified fashion, two kinds of triads have been analyzed. The first one refers to triads composed of a k = 0 first baroclinic geostrophic mode, which is resonant with the stationary component of the diurnal heat source, and two dispersive modes, namely, a mixed Rossby-gravity wave and a barotropic Rossby mode. The other class corresponds to triads composed of two first baroclinic inertio-gravity waves in which the highest-frequency wave resonates with a transient harmonic of the forcing. The integration of the asymptotic reduced equations for these selected resonant triads shows that the stationary component of the diurnal heat source acts as an ""accelerator"" for the energy exchanges between the two dispersive waves through the excitation of the catalyst geostrophic mode. On the other hand, since in the second class of triads the mode that resonates with the forcing is the most energetically active member because of the energy constraints imposed by the triad dynamics, the results show that the convective forcing in this case is responsible for a longer time scale modulation in the resonant interactions, generating a period doubling in the energy exchanges. The results suggest that the diurnal variation of tropical convection might play an important role in generating low-frequency fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation through resonant nonlinear interactions.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Equatorial Waveguide

Weakly nonlinear interactions among equatorial waves have been explored in this paper using the adiabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations in isobaric coordinates. Assuming rigid lid vertical boundary conditions, the conditions imposed at the surface and at the top of the troposphere were expanded in a Taylor series around two isobaric surfaces in an approach similar to that used in the theory of surface-gravity waves in deep water and capillary-gravity waves. By adopting the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity, inertio-gravity, and Kelvin waves, as well as their vertical structures, were obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves were shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(epsilon) approximation. The resonant triads whose wave components satisfy a resonance condition for their vertical structures were found to have the most significant interactions, although this condition is not excluding, unlike the resonant conditions for the zonal wavenumbers and meridional modes. Thus, the analysis has focused on such resonant triads. In general, it was found that for these resonant triads satisfying the resonance condition in the vertical direction, the wave with the highest absolute frequency always acts as an energy source (or sink) for the remaining triad components, as usually occurs in several other physical problems in fluid dynamics. In addition, the zonally symmetric geostrophic modes act as catalyst modes for the energy exchanges between two dispersive waves in a resonant triad. The integration of the reduced asymptotic equations for a single resonant triad shows that, for the initial mode amplitudes characterizing realistic magnitudes of atmospheric flow perturbations, the modes in general exchange energy on low-frequency (intraseasonal and/or even longer) time scales, with the interaction period being dependent upon the initial mode amplitudes. Potential future applications of the present theory to the real atmosphere with the inclusion of diabatic forcing, dissipation, and a more realistic background state are also discussed.

Particle acceleration and magnetic field structure in PKS 2155-304: optical polarimetric observations

In this paper, we present multiband optical polarimetric observations of the very-high energy blazar PKS 2155-304 made simultaneously with a HESS/Fermi high-energy campaign in 2008, when the source was found to be in a low state. The intense daily coverage of the data set allowed us to study in detail the temporal evolution of the emission, and we found that the particle acceleration time-scales are decoupled from the changes in the polarimetric properties of the source. We present a model in which the optical polarimetric emission originates at the polarized mm-wave core and propose an explanation for the lack of correlation between the photometric and polarimetric fluxes. The optical emission is consistent with an inhomogeneous synchrotron source in which the large-scale field is locally organized by a shock in which particle acceleration takes place. Finally, we use these optical polarimetric observations of PKS 2155-304 at a low state to propose an origin for the quiescent gamma-ray flux of the object, in an attempt to provide clues for the source of its recently established persistent TeV emission.

Spectral analysis and modeling of microcyclostratigraphy in late Paleozoic glaciogenic rhythmites, Parana Basin, Brazil

We investigate the depositional time scale of lithological couplets (fine sandstone/siltstone-siltstone/mudstone) from two distinctive outcrops of Permo-Carboniferous glacial rhythmites in the Itarare Group (Parana Basin, Brazil). Resolving the fundamental issue of time scale for these rhythmites is important in light of recent evidence for paleosecular variation measured in these sequences. Spectral analysis and tuning of high-resolution gray scale scans of sediment core microstratigraphy, which comprises pervasive laminations, reveal a comparable spectral content at both localities, with a frequency suite interpreted as that of short-term climate variability of Recent and modern times. This evidence for decadal- to centennial-scale deposition of these lithological couplets is discussed in light of the `varvic` character, i.e., annual time scale that was previously assumed for the rhythmites.

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.

BREAKING WAVES IN AN IDEAL QUARK GLUON PLASMA

We study the propagation of perturbations in the energy density in a quark gluon plasma. Expanding the Euler and continuity equations of relativistic hydrodynamics around equilibrium configurations we obtain a nonlinear differential equation called the breaking wave equation. We solve it numerically and follow the time-evolution of initially localized pulses. We find that, quite unexpectedly, these pulses live for a very long time (compared to the reaction time-scales) before breaking. In practice, they mimick the Korteweg-de Vries solitons. Their existence may have some observable consequences.

Community structure and dynamics in climate networks

We consider climate networks constructed from observed and model simulated fields of three climate variables and investigate their community structure. We find that for all fields the number of effective communities is rather small (four to five). We are able to trace the origin of these communities to certain dynamical properties of climate. Our results suggest that the complete complexity of the climate system condenses beyond the `weather` time scales into a small number of low-dimensional interacting components and provide clues as to the nature of the climate subsystems underlying these components.

Single Synapse Information Coding in Intraburst Spike Patterns of Central Pattern Generator Motor Neurons

Burst firing is ubiquitous in nervous systems and has been intensively studied in central pattern generators (CPGs). Previous works have described subtle intraburst spike patterns (IBSPs) that, despite being traditionally neglected for their lack of relation to CPG motor function, were shown to be cell-type specific and sensitive to CPG connectivity. Here we address this matter by investigating how a bursting motor neuron expresses information about other neurons in the network. We performed experiments on the crustacean stomatogastric pyloric CPG, both in control conditions and interacting in real-time with computer model neurons. The sensitivity of postsynaptic to presynaptic IBSPs was inferred by computing their average mutual information along each neuron burst. We found that details of input patterns are nonlinearly and inhomogeneously coded through a single synapse into the fine IBSPs structure of the postsynaptic neuron following burst. In this way, motor neurons are able to use different time scales to convey two types of information simultaneously: muscle contraction (related to bursting rhythm) and the behavior of other CPG neurons (at a much shorter timescale by using IBSPs as information carriers). Moreover, the analysis revealed that the coding mechanism described takes part in a previously unsuspected information pathway from a CPG motor neuron to a nerve that projects to sensory brain areas, thus providing evidence of the general physiological role of information coding through IBSPs in the regulation of neuronal firing patterns in remote circuits by the CNS.

Room Temperature Ionic Liquid-Lithium Salt Mixtures: Optical Kerr Effect Dynamical Measurements

The addition of lithium salts to ionic liquids causes an increase in viscosity and a decrease in ionic mobility that hinders their possible application as an alternative solvent in lithium ion batteries. Optically heterodyne-detected optical Kerr effect spectroscopy was used to study the change in dynamics, principally orientational relaxation, caused by the addition of lithium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide to the ionic liquid 1-buty1-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide. Over the time scales studied (1 ps-16 ns) for the pure ionic liquid, two temperature-independent power laws were observed: the intermediate power law (1 ps to similar to 1 ns), followed by the von Schweidler power law. The von Schweidler power law is followed by the final complete exponential relaxation, which is highly sensitive to temperature. The lithium salt concentration, however, was found to affect both power laws, and a discontinuity could be found in the trend observed for the intermediate power law when the concentration (mole fraction) of lithium salt is close to chi(LiTf(2)N) = 0.2. A mode coupling theory (MCT) schematic model was also used to fit the data for both the pure ionic liquid and the different salt concentration mixtures. It was found that dynamics in both types of liquids are described very well by MCT.

Interfacial Electron Transfer Dynamics Following Laser Flash Photolysis of [Ru(bpy)(2)((4,4 `-PO(3)H(2))(2)bpy)](2+) in TiO(2) Nanoparticle Films in Aqueous Environments

Nanosecond laser flash photolysis has been used to investigate injection and back electron transfer from the complex [(Ru-(bpy)(2)(4,4`-(PO(3)H(2))(2)bpy)](2+) surface-bound to TiO(2) (TiO(2)-Ru(II)). The measurements were conducted under conditions appropriate for water oxidation catalysis by known single-site water oxidation catalysts. Systematic variations in average lifetimes for back electron transfer, - were observed with changes in pH, surface coverage, incident excitation intensity, and applied bias. The results were qualitatively consistent with a model involving rate-limiting thermal activation of injected electrons from trap sites to the conduction band or shallow trap sites followed by site-to-site hopping and interfacial electron transfer, TiO(2)(e(-))-Ru(3+) -> TiO(2)-Ru(2+). The appearance of pH-dependent decreases in the efficiency of formation of TiO(2)-Ru(3+) and in incident-photon-to-current efficiencies with the added reductive scavenger hydroquinone point to pH-dependent back electron transfer processes on both the sub-nanosecond and millisecond-microsecond time scales, which could be significant in limiting long-term storage of multiple redox equivalents.

Evidence for diffusional coupling in electrochemical thin layers: implications for surface coverage calibration via electrochemical infrared spectroscopy

The time dependence of the concentration of CO2 in an electrochemical thin layer cavity is studied with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in order to evaluate the extent to which the thin layer cavity is diffusionally decoupled from the surrounding bulk electrolyte. For the model system of CO on Pt(111) in 0.1 M HClO4, it is found that the concentration of CO2, formed by electro-oxidation of CO, equilibrates rapidly with the surrounding bulk electrolyte. This rapid equilibration indicates that there is diffusion out of the thin layer, even on the short time scales of typical infrared experiments (1-3 min). However, since the measured CO2 absorbance intensity as a function of time is reproducible to within 10%, a new time-dependent method for surface coverage calibration using solution-phase species is proposed.