Bidding at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: a laboratory analysis

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

Competitive interactions between species of fresh-water snails: I. Laboratory. IC. Comparative survival of Biomphalaria glabrata and B. Straminea kept out of water

Biomphalaria glabrata and B. straminea were submitted to an out-door laboratory experiment for testing their comparative ability to resist desiccation. Results have shown that B. straminea is significantly higher resistant than B. glabrata. After five months under such distressing condition the survival ratios were: B. glabrata 8.1 per cent and B. straminea 18.4 per cent.

Impact of genetic SLC28 transporter and ITPA variants on ribavirin 21 serum level, hemoglobin drop and therapeutic response in patients with HCV infection

Background: T reatment o f chronic hepatitis C i s evolving, a nd direct acting antivirals ( DAAs) are now a dded to p egylated interferon-α ( Peg- INF-α) and ribavirin (RBV) for the treatment o f hepatitis C v irus ( HCV) genotype 1 infection. DAAs c ause d ifferent side effects and can even worsen RBV induced hemolytic anemia. T herefore, identifying host genetic d eterminants of R BV bioavailability and therapeutic e fficacy will remain crucial for individualized treatment. Recent d ata showed associations between R BV induced h emolytic anemia and genetic polymorphisms o f concentrative nucleoside transporters s uch as C NT3 (SLC28A3) and i nosine t riphosphatase (ITPA). T o analyze t he association of genetic variants of SLC28 transporters and ITPA with RBV induced hemolytic anemia and treatment o utcome. Methods: I n our study, 173 patients f rom t he S wiss Hepatitis C C ohort Study and 2 2 patients from Swiss Association for the Study of the Liver study 24 (61% HCV g enotype 1, 3 9% genotypes 2 o r 3) were analyzed for SLC28A2 single nucleotide p olymorphism (SNP) rs11854484, SLC28A3 rs56350726 and SLC28A3 rs10868138 as well as ITPA SNPs rs1127354 and rs7270101. RBV serum levels during treatment were measured in 49 patients. Results: SLC28A2 r s11854484 genotype TT was associated with significantly higher dosage- and body weight-adjusted RBV levels as compared to genotypes TC and CC (p=0.04 and p=0.02 at weeks 4 and 8, respectively). ITPA SNPs rs1127354 and rs7270101 were associated with h emolytic a nemia both in genotype as w ell as i n allelic a nalyses. SLC28A3 rs56350726 genotype TT (vs. AT/AA, RR=2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.1) as well as the T allele (vs. A; RR=1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.2) were associated with increased SVR rates. The combined analysis of overall ITPA activity and SLC28 v ariants together revealed n o significant a dditive effects on either treatment-related anemia or SVR. Conclusions: T he newly identified association between RBV serum levels a nd SLC28A2 rs11854484 genotype as well as the replicated association of ITPA and SLC28A3 g enetic p olymorphisms w ith RBV induced hemolytic anemia and treatment r esponse underpin the need for further studies on host genetic d eterminants of R BV bioavailability and therapeutic e fficacy f or individualized treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

Quantitative and qualitative research on brief systemic therapies carried out within the framework of an ambulatory consultation for couples and families

Abstract: This article presents both a brief systemic intervention method (IBS) consisting in 6 sessions developed in an ambulatory service for couples and families, and two research projects done in collaboration with the Institute for Psychotherapy of the University of Lausanne. The first project is quantitative and it aims at evaluating the effectiveness of ISB. One of its main feature is that outcomes are assessed at different levels of individual and family functioning: 1) symptoms and individual functioning; 2) quality of marital relationship; 3) parental and co-parental relationships; 4) familial relationships. The second project is a qualitative case study about a marital therapy which identifies and analyses significant moments of the therapeutic process from the patients' perspective. Methodology was largely inspired by Daniel Stem's work about "moments of meeting" in psychotherapy. Results show that patients' theories about relationship and change are important elements that deepen our understanding of the change process in couple and family therapy. The interest of associating clinicians and researchers for the development and validation of a new clinical model is discussed.

In situ evaluation of single-cell lysis by cytosol extraction observation through fluorescence decay and dielectrophoretic trapping time

We present a new method for lysis of single cells in continuous flow, where cells are sequentially trapped, lysed and released in an automatic process. Using optimized frequencies, dielectrophoretic trapping allows exposing cells in a reproducible way to high electrical fields for long durations, thereby giving good control on the lysis parameters. In situ evaluation of cytosol extraction on single cells has been studied for Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells through out-diffusion of fluorescent molecules for different voltage amplitudes. A diffusion model is proposed to correlate this out-diffusion to the total area of the created pores, which is dependent on the potential drop across the cell membrane and enables evaluation of the total pore area in the membrane. The dielectrophoretic trapping is no longer effective after lysis because of the reduced conductivity inside the cells, leading to cell release. The trapping time is linked to the time required for cytosol extraction and can thus provide additional validation of the effective cytosol extraction for non-fluorescent cells. Furthermore, the application of one single voltage for both trapping and lysis provides a fully automatic process including cell trapping, lysis, and release, allowing operating the device in continuous flow without human intervention.

Proyecto ecoturístico integrado en la Reserva Natural El Tisey - La Estanzuela

El presente proyecto realizado en la Reserva Natural El Tisey-La Estanzuela en la República de Nicaragua pretende mejorar la situación de dicha Reserva como destino ecoturístico. Mediante una descripción exhaustiva del área y una valoración de los recursos y servicios turísticos, se ha planteado la problemática para el desarrollo del ecoturismo. Según la OMT, el ecoturismo es un tipo de turismo sostenible que se realiza en espacios naturales protegidos para conocer la flora y fauna características. Debe satisfacer las necesidades de los turistas y de los autóctonos, al mismo tiempo que protege y mejora las oportunidades de futuro y se respeta la integridad cultural, los procesos ecológicos, la diversidad biológica y los sistemas de apoyo a la vida. En base a ésto y a los resultados obtenidos tanto de la valoración de los servicios y recursos como del análisis DAFO, se han propuesto un conjunto de mejoras y se ha realizado un plan de actuación, que se trata de la elaboración de cuatro itinerarios así como de trípticos informativos, que de llevarse a cabo, mejorarían las condiciones turísticas y de seguro que aumentaría la afluencia de turistas.

Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies

The quintessence of recent natural science studies is that the 2 degrees C target can only be achieved with massive emission reductions in the next few years. The central twist of this paper is the addition of this limited time to act into a non-perpetual real options framework analysing optimal climate policy under uncertainty. The window-of-opportunity modelling setup shows that the limited time to act may spark a trend reversal in the direction of low-carbon alternatives. However, the implementation of a climate policy is evaded by high uncertainty about possible climate pathways.

Evolution of insulin sensitivity and its variability in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients treated with hypothermia.

INTRODUCTION: Therapeutic hypothermia (TH) is often used to treat out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients who also often simultaneously receive insulin for stress-induced hyperglycaemia. However, the impact of TH on systemic metabolism and insulin resistance in critical illness is unknown. This study analyses the impact of TH on metabolism, including the evolution of insulin sensitivity (SI) and its variability, in patients with coma after OHCA. METHODS: This study uses a clinically validated, model-based measure of SI. Insulin sensitivity was identified hourly using retrospective data from 200 post-cardiac arrest patients (8,522 hours) treated with TH, shortly after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Blood glucose and body temperature readings were taken every one to two hours. Data were divided into three periods: 1) cool (T <35°C); 2) an idle period of two hours as normothermia was re-established; and 3) warm (T >37°C). A maximum of 24 hours each for the cool and warm periods was considered. The impact of each condition on SI is analysed per cohort and per patient for both level and hour-to-hour variability, between periods and in six-hour blocks. RESULTS: Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increase consistently by 35% to 70% and 26% to 59% (P <0.001) respectively from cool to warm. Conversely, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 11.1% to 33.6% (P <0.001) for the first 12 hours of treatment. However, SI variability increases between the 18th and 30th hours over the cool to warm transition, before continuing to decrease afterward. CONCLUSIONS: OCHA patients treated with TH have significantly lower and more variable SI during the cool period, compared to the later warm period. As treatment continues, SI level rises, and variability decreases consistently except for a large, significant increase during the cool to warm transition. These results demonstrate increased resistance to insulin during mild induced hypothermia. Our study might have important implications for glycaemic control during targeted temperature management.

Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.

Intergenerational Mobility and the Informative Content of Surnames

We propose a new methodology for measuring intergenerational mobility in economic wellbeing. Our method is based on the joint distribution of surnames and economic outcomes. It circumvents the need for intergenerational panel data, a long-standing stumbling block for understanding mobility. A single cross-sectional dataset is su cient. Our main idea is simple. If `inheritance' is important for economic outcomes, then rare surnames should predict economic outcomes in the cross-section. This is because rare surnames are indicative of familial linkages. Of course, if the number of rare surnames is small, this won't work. But rare surnames are abundant in the highly-skewed nature of surname distributions from most Western societies. We develop a model that articulates this idea and shows that the more important is inheritance, the more informative will be surnames. This result is robust to a variety of di erent assumptions about fertility and mating. We apply our method using the 2001 census from Catalonia, a large region of Spain. We use educational attainment as a proxy for overall economic well-being. Our main nding is that mobility has decreased among the di erent generations of the 20th century. A complementary analysis based on sibling correlations con rms our results and provides a robustness check on our method. Our model and our data allow us to examine one possible explanation for the observed decrease in mobility. We nd that the degree of assortative mating has increased over time. Overall, we argue that our method has promise because it can tap the vast mines of census data that are available in a heretofore unexploited manner.

Keeping Up with the Joneses: Who Loses Out?

This paper investigates how well-being varies with individual wage rates when individuals care about relative consumption and so there are Veblen effects – Keeping up with the Joneses – leading individuals to over-work. In the case where individuals compare themselves with their peers – those with the same wage-rate - it is shown that Keeping up with the Joneses leads some individuals to work who otherwise would have chosen not to. Moreover for these individuals well-being is a decreasing function of the wage rate - contrary to standard theory. So those who are worst-off in society are no longer those on the lowest wage.

Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts

We investigate the causes of a conflict by adding ambient climate factors to the existing bundle of most significant variables. It turns out that – controlling for possible associations – temperature could actually induce a conflict. We emphasise that temperature could not be a dominant reason in starting a conflict; however, it could escalate the chances when other factors are present. This paper references some of the related psychological studies to support this claim. We also show that grievance factors could actually be rightfully effective in starting an internal conflict alongside greed based reasons. In the end, we believe that it could be informative to study ambient factors more often in economics.

Out of sight, out of mind? Educational outcomes of children with parents working abroad.

Impact of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children is theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experience and its timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse the question empirically. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of children are affected by parental migration. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that parental employment abroad has a positive immediate impact on a pupil’s grade. Parental education appears pivotal; children of high school graduates benefit most. Longer term effects appear more negative, however, suggesting that a prolonged migration significantly lowers a child’s grade. Interestingly, siblings’ foreign experiences exert a large, positive impact on pupils’ grades.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.