Modelling scenarios of diffusion and control of pandemic influenza, italy

En aquest article es resumeixen els resultats publicats en un informe de l' ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità) del desembre de 2006, sobre un model matemàtic desenvolupat per un grup de treball que inclou a investigadors de les Universitats de Trento, Pisa i Roma, i els Instituts Nacionals de Salut (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, ISS), per avaluar i mesurar l'impacte de la transmissió i el control de la pandèmia de grip

Pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) infection requiring hospitalization of elderly Spanish adults.

To describe the clinical presentation and prognosis of elderly adults hospitalized with pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) influenza infection and to compare these data with those of younger patients. DESIGN: Prospective, observational, multicenter study. SETTING: Thirteen hospitals in Spain. PARTICIPANTS: Adults admitted to the hospital with confirmed pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) influenza infection. MEASUREMENTS: Demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological, and outcome variables. RESULTS: Between June 12 and November 10, 2009, 585 adults with confirmed 2009 A(H1N1) influenza were hospitalized, of whom 50 (8.5%) were aged 65 and older (median age 72, range 65-87). Older adults (≥ 65) were more likely to have associated comorbidities (88.0% vs 51.2%; P < .001), primarily chronic pulmonary diseases (46.0% vs 27.3%; P < .001). Lower respiratory tract symptoms and signs such as dyspnea (60.0% vs 45.6%) and wheezing (46.0% vs 27.8%; P = .007) were also more common in these elderly adults, although pulmonary infiltrates were present in just 14 (28.0%) of the older adults, compared with 221 (41.3%) of the younger adults (P = .06). Multilobar involvement was less frequent in elderly adults with pulmonary infiltrates than younger adults with pulmonary infiltrates (21.4% vs 60.0%; P = .05). Rhinorrhea (4.0% vs 21.9%; P = .003), myalgias (42.0% vs 59.1%; P = .01), and sore throat (14.0% vs 29.2%; P = .02) were more frequent in younger adults. Early antiviral therapy (<48 hours) was similar in the two groups (34.0% vs 37.9%; P = .58). Two older adults (4.0%) died during hospitalization, compared with 11 (2.1%) younger adults (P = .30). CONCLUSION: Elderly adults with 2009 A(H1N1) influenza had fewer viral-like upper respiratory symptoms than did younger adults. Pneumonia was more frequent in younger adults. No significant differences were observed in hospital mortality.

Profils de réponse immunitaire innée et adaptative lors d'infections aiguës par le virus de l'hépatite B, de la dengue et influenza A

Les réponses immunitaires innées et adaptatives déclenchées par une infection virale chez l'humain sont classiquement décrites comme une succession d'événements communs à tous les virus- la réponse innée, caractérisés par la libération rapide de cytokines antivirales et des chémokines, recrutant monocytes, NK et lymphocytes Τ vers le site d'infection, suivis par l'activation de l'immunité adaptative. Notre compréhension de la dynamique de ces mécanismes dynamiques est limitée chez l'humain. En effet, il existe peu d'études portant sur la cinétique et l'analyse quantitative de la réponse Τ spécifique au virus, parallèlement aux aspects plus qualitatifs de cette réponse (cytokines sériques produites lors de différentes infections virales, notamment). Méthode: Nous avons étudiés trois groupes de patients tous recrutés au cours de la phase aiguë d'une infection par le virus de la dengue (28 patients), le virus influenza A (13 patients) et le virus de l'hépatite Β (HBV) (13 patients). Nous avons analysé le profil d'activation (CD38, HLA-DR) et de prolifération (Ki-67, Bcl-2) des lymphocytes Τ CD8+ (par cytométrie de flux), de façon longitudinale à différents timepoints (depuis le début des symptômes jusqu'à rémission totale) en quantifiant 15 cytokines et chémokines (par Luminex multiplex biométrie immunoassay) dans le sérum des patients infectés. Résultats: Nous avons comparé le profil des réponses innée et adaptative chez les 3 types d'infection virales; les patients infectés par l'HBV ont une fréquence élevée de CD8+ spécifiques activés et proliférant ainsi que des taux sériques élevés de TNF-α et d'IFN-γ. Les patients infectés par le virus de la dengue et par le virus Influenza présentent quant à eux une activation CD 8+ moins intense mais une forte expression de la réponse innée, marquée par une élévation des cytokines IFN-α, IFN-γ, et TNF-α. De plus, une particularité des patients infectés par le virus de la dengue est de présenter une élévation marquée des cytokines immunorégulatrices (IL-10, IL- 1RA). Conclusion: Ces résultats permettent de montrer que la réponse immunologique consécutive à une infections virale spécifique est caractérisée par sa propre signature, tant au niveau de la production de cytokines/chemokines que de la quantité des lymphocytes Τ CD+8+ spécifiques activés et proliférantes. Ce travail contribue ainsi à une meilleure compréhension de l'immunité antivirale chez les humains, grâce à la description de la cinétique et de la quantification des cellules Τ CD8+ activées et des taux de cytokines dans chaque infection étudiée. Abstract Knowledge of innate and adaptive immune parameters triggered by viral infections is limited but important for understanding disease pathogenesis. We performed a comparative longitudinal analysis of serum cytokines/chemokines and of virus-activated CD8 Τ cells population in patients with acute dengue, influenza A or HBV infections from onset to disease recovery. We observed that each viral infection is characterized by its own signature of cytokines/chemokines production and size of activated and proliferating CD8 Τ cell pool. This is, to our knowledge, the first comparative longitudinal study of the immune response in human subjects in three distinct viral infections.

Impact of Anti-T-Cell Therapy in the Immunogenicity of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: The influence of anti-T-cell therapy in the immunogenicity of the influenza vaccine in kidney transplant recipients remains unclear. METHODS: During the 2010 to 2011 influenza season, we evaluated the immune response to the inactivated trivalent influenza vaccine in kidney transplant recipients having received Thymoglobulin or basiliximab as induction therapy. A hemagglutination inhibition assay was used to assess the immunogenicity of the vaccine. The primary outcome was geometric mean titers of hemagglutination inhibition after influenza vaccination. RESULTS: Sixty patients (Thymoglobulin n=22 and basiliximab n=38) were included. Patients in the Thymoglobulin group were older (P=0.16), showed higher creatinine levels (P=0.16) and had more frequently received a previous transplant (P=0.02). There were no significant differences in geometric mean titers for any of the three viral strains between groups (P=0.69 for H1N1, P=0.56 for H3N2, and P=0.7 for B strain). Seroconversion to at least one viral strain was seen in 15 (68%) of 22 patients in the Thymoglobulin group and 28 (73%) of 38 in the basiliximab group (P=0.77). In patients vaccinated during the first year after receiving anti-T-cell therapy (n=25), there was a trend toward lower vaccine responses in the Thymoglobulin group. Patients who received Thymoglobulin showed lower CD4 cell counts and lower levels of IgM, at an average of 16.2 months after transplantation. A multivariate analysis showed that only the absence of mycophenolate was associated with a better vaccine response (odds ratio=9.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-86.9; P=0.047). CONCLUSION: No significant differences were seen in immunogenicity of the influenza vaccine in kidney transplant recipients having received either Thymoglobulin or basiliximab.

Support for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Requirements among US Healthcare Personnel.

Objective. To measure support for seasonal influenza vaccination requirements among US healthcare personnel (HCP) and its associations with attitudes regarding influenza and influenza vaccination and self-reported coverage by existing vaccination requirements. Design. Between June 1 and June 30, 2010, we surveyed a sample of US HCP ([Formula: see text]) recruited using an existing probability-based online research panel of participants representing the US general population as a sampling frame. Setting. General community. Participants. Eligible HCP who (1) reported having worked as medical doctors, health technologists, healthcare support staff, or other health practitioners or who (2) reported having worked in hospitals, ambulatory care facilities, long-term care facilities, or other health-related settings. Methods. We analyzed support for seasonal influenza vaccination requirements for HCP using proportion estimation and multivariable probit models. Results. A total of 57.4% (95% confidence interval, 53.3%-61.5%) of US HCP agreed that HCP should be required to be vaccinated for seasonal influenza. Support for mandatory vaccination was statistically significantly higher among HCP who were subject to employer-based influenza vaccination requirements, who considered influenza to be a serious disease, and who agreed that influenza vaccine was safe and effective. Conclusions. A majority of HCP support influenza vaccination requirements. Moreover, providing HCP with information about the safety of influenza vaccination and communicating that immunization of HCP is a patient safety issue may be important for generating staff support for influenza vaccination requirements.

Propagation du virus de la grippe dans les transports aériens et survie du virus dans l'air ambiant

Chaque hiver en France, la grippe saisonnière touche entre 2 et 7 millions de personnes, dont environ 1 000 cas mortels, surtout parmi les personnes de plus de 65 ans. Elle constitue ainsi la première cause de mortalité par maladie infectieuse. L'agent causal est un virus à ARN très contagieux, pouvant appartenir à différent type (A, B ou C). Le type A est composé d'une large gamme de sous-types classés selon les différentes sortes et associations de protéines de surface du virus. Parmi ceux-ci, les sous-types H1N1 et H3N2 circulent actuellement chez l'Homme. La transmission inter-humaine de la maladie se fait principalement par voie aéroportée par le biais des gouttelettes riches en virus provenant des accès de toux et des éternuements des sujets infectés. Le coût sanitaire et social annuel de la grippe est estimé à 460 millions d'euros pour une épidémie moyenne. La prévention de la grippe repose sur une vaccination annuelle, proposée dans la plupart des pays industrialisés aux personnes à risque. Cependant, la couverture vaccinale en France n'était que de 23 % de la population générale en 2011-2012 (62 % chez les plus de 50 ans). Dès lors, environ 80 % des individus sont susceptibles de contracter la maladie. Les transports en commun constituent des environnements idéaux pour la dissémination des virus. En effet, la grande promiscuité entre les passagers potentiellement malades et les passagers sains favorise la propagation de la maladie. Dans ces conditions, l'évaluation du risque d'infection est utile pour appliquer une prévention ciblée. Le but du premier article analysé (Gupta et al., 2012) était, précisément, d'évaluer le risque, pour un passager sain, de contracter le virus de la grippe dans un avion transportant un passager malade. Les auteurs du second article analysé (Pyankov et al., 2012) ont estimé le temps de survie de différents sous-types de virus de la grippe dans l'air ambiant d'une chambre expérimentale.

Incidence and outcomes of respiratory viral infections in lung transplant recipients: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence and outcomes of respiratory viral infections in lung transplant recipients (LTR) are not well defined. The objective of this prospective study conducted from June 2008 to March 2011 was to characterise the incidence and outcomes of viral respiratory infections in LTR. METHODS: Patients were seen in three contexts: study-specific screenings covering all seasons; routine post-transplantation follow-up; and emergency visits. Nasopharyngeal specimens were collected systematically and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was performed when clinically indicated. All specimens underwent testing with a wide panel of molecular assays targeting respiratory viruses. RESULTS: One hundred and twelve LTR had 903 encounters: 570 (63%) were screening visits, 124 (14%) were routine post-transplantation follow-up and 209 (23%) were emergency visits. Respiratory viruses were identified in 174 encounters, 34 of these via BAL. The incidence of infection was 0.83 per patient-year (95% CI 0.45 to 1.52). The viral infection rates upon screening, routine and emergency visits were 14%, 15% and 34%, respectively (p<0.001). Picornavirus was identified most frequently in nasopharyngeal (85/140; 60.7%) and BAL specimens (20/34; 59%). Asymptomatic viral carriage, mainly of picornaviruses, was found at 10% of screening visits. Infections were associated with transient lung function loss and high calcineurin inhibitor blood levels. The hospitalisation rate was 50% (95% CI 30% to 70.9%) for influenza and parainfluenza and 16.9% (95% CI 11.2% to 23.9%) for other viruses. Acute rejection was not associated with viral infection (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.1 to 1.3). CONCLUSIONS: There is a high incidence of viral infection in LTR; asymptomatic carriage is rare. Viral infections contribute significantly to this population's respiratory symptomatology. No temporal association was observed between infection and acute rejection.

Long-term outcomes of pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1)-associated severe ARDS.

BACKGROUND: No data on long-term outcomes of survivors of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) (A[H1N1])-associated ARDS are available. The objective of this study was to compare the 1-year outcomes of survivors of A(H1N1)-associated ARDS, according to use or no use of extracorporeal lung assist (ECLA), using its need as an ARDS severity surrogate. METHODS: Survivors of ARDS (12 with ECLA use vs 25 without, corresponding to 75% and 54% of the eligible patients for each group, respectively) selected from the Réseau Européen de Ventilation Artificielle (REVA) registry had previously been healthy, with only pregnancy and/or moderate obesity (BMI ≤ 35 kg/m²) as known risk factors for A(H1N1) infection. Lung function and morphology, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and psychologic impairment were evaluated. RESULTS: At 1 year post-ICU discharge for the ECLA and no-ECLA groups, respectively, 50% and 40% reported significant exertion dyspnea, 83% and 64% had returned to work, and 75% and 64% had decreased diffusion capacity across the blood-gas barrier, despite their near-normal and similar lung function test results. For both groups, exercise test results showed diminished but comparable exercise capacities, with similar alveolar-arterial oxygen gradients at peak exercise, and CT scans showed minor abnormal findings. HRQoL assessed by the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey was poorer for both groups than for a sex- and age-matched general population group, but without between-group differences. ECLA and no-ECLA group patients, respectively, had symptoms of anxiety (50% and 56%) and depression (28% and 28%) and were at risk for posttraumatic stress disorder (41% and 44%). CONCLUSIONS: One year post-ICU discharge, a majority of survivors of A(H1N1)-associated ARDS had minor lung disabilities with diminished diffusion capacities across the blood-gas barrier, and most had psychologic impairment and poorer HRQoL than a sex- and age-matched general population group. ECLA and no-ECLA group patients had comparable outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01271842; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov

Factors associated with vaccination against Influenza A (H1N1) in the elderly

This study aimed to investigate the sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral factors and receiving information about the vaccine against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) associated with vaccination of elderly people. Study of quantitative and transversal nature, in which 286 elderly residents in Fortaleza, CE, Brazil participated. The association between variables was analyzed by the Pearson chi-square test, considering a 95% confidence interval and significance level (p≤0.05). The results revealed that, unlike the sociodemographic characteristics, many clinical, behavioral and informational aspects correlated significantly with adherence to Influenza A (H1N1) vaccination. It is believed that the findings can be used in strategies to control and prevent infection by viral subtypes within the elderly population, extensible even to other vaccine-preventable diseases, especially in light of possible future pandemics.

Preventing contagion with avian influenza: Disease salience, attitudes toward foreigners, and avoidance beliefs

Building on an evolutionary approach to outgroup avoidance, this study shows relations between perceived disease salience and beliefs in the efficacy of avoiding foreigners as protective measures, in the context of a real-life pandemic risk; i.e., avian influenza. People for whom avian influenza was salient and who held unfavourable attitudes toward foreigners were more likely to believe that avoiding contact with foreigners protects against infection. This finding suggests that individual differences in social attitudes moderate evolved mechanisms relating threat of disease to outgroup avoidance.

Development and validation of a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of influenza.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.

Humoral Response to the Influenza A H1N1/09 Monovalent AS03-Adjuvanted Vaccine in Immunocompromised Patients.

Background. Few data are available regarding the immunogenicity and safety of the pandemic influenza vaccine in immunocompromised patients. We evaluated the humoral response to the influenza A H1N1/09 vaccine in solid-organ transplant (SOT) recipients, in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and in healthy individuals. Methods. Patients scheduled to receive the pandemic influenza vaccine were invited to participate. All participants received the influenza A H1N1/09 AS03-adjuvanted vaccine containing 3.75 μg of hemagglutinin. SOT recipients and HIV-infected patients received 2 doses at 3-week intervals, whereas control subjects received 1 dose. Blood samples were taken at day 0, day 21, and day 49 after vaccination. Antibody responses were measured with the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA) and a microneutralization assay. Results. Twenty-nine SOT recipients, 30 HIV-infected patients, and 30 healthy individuals were included in the study. Seroconversion measured by HIA was observed in 15 (52%) of 29 SOT recipients both at day 21 and day 49; in 23 (77%) of 30 at day 21 and 26 (87%) of 30 at day 49 in HIV-infected patients, and in 20 (67%) of 30 at day 21 and in 23 (77%) of 30 at day 49 in control subjects (P = .12 at day 21 and P = .009 at day 49, between groups). Geometric means of antibody titers were not significantly different between groups at day 21 or at day 49. Conclusions. Influenza A H1N1/09 vaccine elicited a similar antibody response in HIV-infected individuals and in control subjects, whereas SOT recipients had an overall lower response. A second dose of the vaccine only moderately improved vaccine immunogenicity in HIV-infected patients.

Issuance of patient reminders for influenza vaccination by US-based primary care physicians during the first year of universal influenza vaccination recommendations.

To estimate the number of physician-reported influenza vaccination reminders during the 2010-2011 influenza season, the first influenza season after universal vaccination recommendations for influenza were introduced, we interviewed 493 members of the Physicians Consulting Network. Patient vaccination reminders are a highly effective means of increasing influenza vaccination; nonetheless, only one quarter of the primary care physicians interviewed issued influenza vaccination reminders during the first year of universal vaccination recommendations, highlighting the need to improve office-based promotion of influenza vaccination.