Dust aerosols over India and adjacent continents retrieved using METEOSAT infrared radiance Part II: quantification of wind dependence and estimation of radiative forcing

Long-range transport of continental dust makes these particles a significant constituent even at locations far from their sources. It is important to study the temporal variations in dust loading over desert regions and the role of meteorology, in order to assess its radiative impact. In this paper, infrared radiance (10.5-12.5 mu m), acquired by the METEOSAT-5 satellite (similar to 5-km resolution) during 1999 and 2003 was used to quantify wind dependence of dust aerosols and to estimate the radiative forcing. Our analysis shows that the frequency of occurrence of dust events was higher during 2003 compared to 1999. Since the dust production function depends mainly on the surface wind speed over regions which are dry and without vegetation, the role of surface wind on IDDI was examined in detail. It was found that an increase of IDDI with wind speed was nearly linear and the rate of increase in IDDI with surface wind was higher during 2003 compared to 1999. It was also observed that over the Indian desert, when wind speed was the highest during monsoon months (June to August), the dust production rate was lower because of higher soil moisture (due to monsoon rainfall). Over the Arabian deserts, when the wind speed is the highest during June to August, the dust production rate is also highest, as soil moisture is lowest during this season. Even though nothing can be said precisely on the reason why 2003 had a greater number of dust events, examination of monthly mean soil moisture at source regions indicates that the occurrence of high winds simultaneous with high soil moisture could be the reason for the decreased dust production efficiency in 1999. It appears that the deserts of Northwest India are more efficient dust sources compared to the deserts of Saudi Arabia and Northeast Africa (excluding Sahara). The radiative impact of dust over various source regions is estimated, and the regionally and annually averaged top of the atmosphere dust radiative forcing (short wave, clear-sky and over land) over the entire study region (0-35 degrees N; 30 degrees-100 degrees E) was in the range of -0.9 to +4.5 W m(-2). The corresponding values at the surface were in the range of -10 to -25 W m(-2). Our studies demonstrate that neglecting the diurnal variation of dust can cause errors in the estimation of long wave dust forcing by as much as 50 to 100%, and nighttime retrieval of dust can significantly reduce the uncertainties. A method to retrieve dust aerosols during nighttime is proposed. The regionally and annually averaged long wave dust radiative forcing was +3.4 +/- 1.6 W m(-2).

On the charging state of atmospheric aerosols and ion-induced nucleation

Floating in the air that surrounds us is a number of small particles, invisible to the human eye. The mixture of air and particles, liquid or solid, is called an aerosol. Aerosols have significant effects on air quality, visibility and health, and on the Earth's climate. Their effect on the Earth's climate is the least understood of climatically relevant effects. They can scatter the incoming radiation from the Sun, or they can act as seeds onto which cloud droplets are formed. Aerosol particles are created directly, by human activity or natural reasons such as breaking ocean waves or sandstorms. They can also be created indirectly as vapors or very small particles are emitted into the atmosphere and they combine to form small particles that later grow to reach climatically or health relevant sizes. The mechanisms through which those particles are formed is still under scientific discussion, even though this knowledge is crucial to make air quality or climate predictions, or to understand how aerosols will influence and will be influenced by the climate's feedback loops. One of the proposed mechanisms responsible for new particle formation is ion-induced nucleation. This mechanism is based on the idea that newly formed particles were ultimately formed around an electric charge. The amount of available charges in the atmosphere varies depending on radon concentrations in the soil and in the air, as well as incoming ionizing radiation from outer space. In this thesis, ion-induced nucleation is investigated through long-term measurements in two different environments: in the background site of Hyytiälä and in the urban site that is Helsinki. The main conclusion of this thesis is that ion-induced nucleation generally plays a minor role in new particle formation. The fraction of particles formed varies from day to day and from place to place. The relative importance of ion-induced nucleation, i.e. the fraction of particles formed through ion-induced nucleation, is bigger in cleaner areas where the absolute number of particles formed is smaller. Moreover, ion-induced nucleation contributes to a bigger fraction of particles on warmer days, when the sulfuric acid and water vapor saturation ratios are lower. This analysis will help to understand the feedbacks associated with climate change.

Boundary-layer heights over the monsoon trough region during active and break phases

The thermodynamic structure and the heights of the boundary layer over the monsoon trough region of the Indian southwest monsoon are presented for the active and break phases of the monsoon. Results indicate significant and consistent variation in boundary-layer heights between the active and break phases.

Categorical Meteorological Products: Evaluation and Analysis

In meteorology, observations and forecasts of a wide range of phenomena for example, snow, clouds, hail, fog, and tornados can be categorical, that is, they can only have discrete values (e.g., "snow" and "no snow"). Concentrating on satellite-based snow and cloud analyses, this thesis explores methods that have been developed for evaluation of categorical products and analyses. Different algorithms for satellite products generate different results; sometimes the differences are subtle, sometimes all too visible. In addition to differences between algorithms, the satellite products are influenced by physical processes and conditions, such as diurnal and seasonal variation in solar radiation, topography, and land use. The analysis of satellite-based snow cover analyses from NOAA, NASA, and EUMETSAT, and snow analyses for numerical weather prediction models from FMI and ECMWF was complicated by the fact that we did not have the true knowledge of snow extent, and we were forced simply to measure the agreement between different products. The Sammon mapping, a multidimensional scaling method, was then used to visualize the differences between different products. The trustworthiness of the results for cloud analyses [EUMETSAT Meteorological Products Extraction Facility cloud mask (MPEF), together with the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (SAFNWC) cloud masks provided by Météo-France (SAFNWC/MSG) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SAFNWC/PPS)] compared with ceilometers of the Helsinki Testbed was estimated by constructing confidence intervals (CIs). Bootstrapping, a statistical resampling method, was used to construct CIs, especially in the presence of spatial and temporal correlation. The reference data for validation are constantly in short supply. In general, the needs of a particular project drive the requirements for evaluation, for example, for the accuracy and the timeliness of the particular data and methods. In this vein, we discuss tentatively how data provided by general public, e.g., photos shared on the Internet photo-sharing service Flickr, can be used as a new source for validation. Results show that they are of reasonable quality and their use for case studies can be warmly recommended. Last, the use of cluster analysis on meteorological in-situ measurements was explored. The Autoclass algorithm was used to construct compact representations of synoptic conditions of fog at Finnish airports.

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

Polarimetric Signatures in the Stratiform Region of a Mesoscale Convective System

Four polarimetric measurands were collected in the stratiform region of a mesoscale convective system. The four are the reflectivity factor, the differential reflectivity, the correlation coefficient between orthogonal copolar echoes, and the differential propagation constant. Most striking is a signature of large aggregates (about 10 mm in size) seen in the differential phase through the melting layer. Another significant feature is an abrupt notch in the correlation coefficient that occurs towards the bottom of the bright band. Aircraft observations and a one-dimensional cloud model are used to explain some polarimetric measurements and to infer the presence of aggregates, graupel, and supercooled cloud water in the stratiform region. These unique observations and model data provide inferences concerning the presence of graupel and the growth of large aggregates in the melting layer.

The energy balance in the Ramdas layer

On calm clear nights, air at a height of a few decimetres above bare soil can be cooler than the surface by several degrees in what we shall call the Ramdas layer (Ramdas and Atmanathan, 1932). The authors have recently offered a logical explanation for such a lifted temperature minimum, together with a detailed numerical model. In this paper, we provide physical insight into the phenomenon by a detailed discussion of the energy budget in four typical cases, including one with a lifted minimum. It is shown that the net cooling rate near ground is the small difference between two dominant terms, representing respectively radiative upflux from the ground and from the air layers just above ground. The delicate energy balance that leads to the lifted minimum is upset by turbulent transport, by surface emissivity approaching unity, or by high ground cooling rates. The rapid variation of the flux emissivity of humid air is shown to dominate radiative transport near the ground.

Rossby waves in May and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Large amplitude stationary Rossby wave trains with wavelength in the range 50 degrees to 60 degrees longitude have been identified in the upper troposphere during May, through the analysis of 200 hPa wind anomalies. The spatial phase of these waves has been shown to differ by about 20 degrees of longitude between the dry and wet Indian monsoon years. It has been shown empirically that the Rossby waves are induced by the heat sources in the ITCZ. These heat sources appear in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions in May just prior to the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. The inter-annual spatial phase shift of the Rossby waves has been shown to be related to the shift in the deep convection in the zonal direction.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.