Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Low-lying states of transverse substituted trans-polyacetylene and trans-polyacetylene: A comparative DMRG study

The density-matrix renormalization group (DMRG) method is used for a comparative study of low-lying excitations in trans-polyacetylene (t-PA) and transversely substituted t-PA (TS-t-PA). We have employed the Pariser-Parr-Pople model Hamiltonian which incorporates long-range electronic correlations to model these systems. We find some fundamental differences in the excited states of the t-PA and TS-t-PA. We find that the lowest two-photon allowed excited state in TS-t-PA is not made up of two triplet excitons and the gap to this state is nonzero even for undimerized chains in the thermodynamic limit. Contrary to earlier results for the Hubbard model, we find that the lowest two-photon state is always below the first optically allowed state in all the systems studied here making TS-t-PA systems only weakly fluorescent materials. Nonresonant tumbling averaged linear and third harmonic generation optic coefficients of TS-t-PA systems are also much smaller than that of t-PA.

Paradigmatic considerations for creative practice in Creative Industries research: The case of Australia's Indie 100

This paper begins with the assertion that research grounded in creative practice constitutes a new paradigm. We argue both for and against the idea. We argue against the idea in terms of applying it to the idealised ‘lone artist’ engaged in the production of their art, whose focus of research is a self-reflection upon the art they produce, and whose art is also the findings of the research. Our position is that such an approach cannot be considered as anything other than a form of auto-phenomenography, that such efforts are part of qualitative research, and they are thus trivial in paradigmatic terms. However, we argue in the positive for understanding the artistic event – by which we mean any mass ecology of artistic practice – as being paradigmatically new in terms of research potentials and demands. Our exemplar for that argument is a practice-led, large-scale annual event called Indie 100 which has run for five years and has demonstrated a distinct paradigmatic ‘settling in’ over its duration while clearly pushing paradigmatic boundaries for research into creative practice.

Bond-order wave phase, spin solitons, and thermodynamics of a frustrated linear spin-1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet

The linear spin-1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet with exchanges J(1) and J(2) between first and second neighbors has a bond-order wave (BOW) phase that starts at the fluid-dimer transition at J(2)/J(1)=0.2411 and is particularly simple at J(2)/J(1)=1/2. The BOW phase has a doubly degenerate singlet ground state, broken inversion symmetry, and a finite-energy gap E-m to the lowest-triplet state. The interval 0.4 < J(2)/J(1) < 1.0 has large E-m and small finite-size corrections. Exact solutions are presented up to N = 28 spins with either periodic or open boundary conditions and for thermodynamics up to N = 18. The elementary excitations of the BOW phase with large E-m are topological spin-1/2 solitons that separate BOWs with opposite phase in a regular array of spins. The molar spin susceptibility chi(M)(T) is exponentially small for T << E-m and increases nearly linearly with T to a broad maximum. J(1) and J(2) spin chains approximate the magnetic properties of the BOW phase of Hubbard-type models and provide a starting point for modeling alkali-tetracyanoquinodimethane salts.

Possible high-temperature superconducting state with a d plus id pairing symmetry in doped graphene

Motivated by a suggestion in our earlier work [G. Baskaran, Phys. Rev. B 65, 212505 (2002)], we study electron correlation driven superconductivity in doped graphene where on-site correlations are believed to be of intermediate strength. Using an extensive variational Monte Carlo study of the repulsive Hubbard model and a correlated ground state wave function, we show that doped graphene supports a superconducting ground state with a d+id pairing symmetry. We estimate superconductivity reaching room temperatures at an optimal doping of about 15%-20%. Our work suggests that correlations can stabilize superconductivity even in systems with intermediate coupling.

Lattice density-functional theory on graphene

A density-functional approach on the hexagonal graphene lattice is developed using an exact numerical solution to the Hubbard model as the reference system. Both nearest-neighbour and up to third nearest-neighbour hoppings are considered and exchange-correlation potentials within the local density approximation are parameterized for both variants. The method is used to calculate the ground-state energy and density of graphene flakes and infinite graphene sheet. The results are found to agree with exact diagonalization for small systems, also if local impurities are present. In addition, correct ground-state spin is found in the case of large triangular and bowtie flakes out of the scope of exact diagonalization methods.

Double time window targeting technique: Real-time DMRG dynamics in the Pariser-Parr-Pople model

We present a generalized adaptive time-dependent density matrix renormalization-group (DMRG) scheme, called the double time window targeting (DTWT) technique, which gives accurate results with nominal computational resources, within reasonable computational time. This procedure originates from the amalgamation of the features of pace keeping DMRG algorithm, first proposed by Luo et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 049701 (2003)] and the time-step targeting algorithm by Feiguin and White [Phys. Rev. B 72, 020404 (2005)]. Using the DTWT technique, we study the phenomena of spin-charge separation in conjugated polymers (materials for molecular electronics an spintronics), which have long-range electron-electron interactions and belong to the class of strongly correlated low-dimensional many-body systems. The issue of real-time dynamics within the Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) model which includes long-range electron correlations has not been addressed in the literature so far. The present study on PPP chains has revealed that, (i) long-range electron correlations enable both the charge and spin degree of freedom of the electron, to propagate faster in the PPP model compared to Hubbard model, (ii) for standard parameters of the PPP model as applied to conjugated polymers, the charge velocity is almost twice that of the spin velocity, and (iii) the simplistic interpretation of long-range correlations by merely renormalizing the U value of the Hubbard model fails to explain the dynamics of doped holes/electrons in the PPP model.

Design of an HA2-based Escherichia coli expressed influenza immunogen that protects mice from pathogenic challenge

Influenza HA is the primary target of neutralizing antibodies during infection, and its sequence undergoes genetic drift and shift in response to immune pressure. The receptor binding HA1 subunit of HA shows much higher sequence variability relative to the metastable, fusion-active HA2 subunit, presumably because neutralizing antibodies are primarily targeted against the former in natural infection. We have designed an HA2-based immunogen using a protein minimization approach that incorporates designed mutations to destabilize the low pH conformation of HA2. The resulting construct (HA6) was expressed in Escherichia coli and refolded from inclusion bodies. Biophysical studies and mutational analysis of the protein indicate that it is folded into the desired neutral pH conformation competent to bind the broadly neutralizing HA2 directed monoclonal 12D1, not the low pH conformation observed in previous studies. HA6 was highly immunogenic in mice and the mice were protected against lethal challenge by the homologous A/HK/68 mouse-adapted virus. An HA6-like construct from another H3 strain (A/Phil/2/82) also protected mice against A/HK/68 challenge. Regions included in HA6 are highly conserved within a subtype and are fairly well conserved within a clade. Targeting the highly conserved HA2 subunit with a bacterially produced immunogen is a vaccine strategy that may aid in pandemic preparedness.

First-principles analysis of electron correlation, spin ordering and phonons in the normal state of FeSe1-x

We present first-principles density-functional-theory-based calculations to determine the effects of the strength of on-site electron correlation, magnetic ordering, pressure and Se vacancies on phonon frequencies and electronic structure of FeSe1-x. The theoretical equilibrium structure (lattice parameters) of FeSe depends sensitively on the value of the Hubbard parameter U of on-site correlation and magnetic ordering. Our results suggest that there is a competition between different antiferromagnetic states due to comparable magnetic exchange couplings between first- and second-neighbor Fe sites. As a result, a short range order of stripe antiferromagnetic type is shown to be relevant to the normal state of FeSe at low temperature. We show that there is a strong spin-phonon coupling in FeSe (comparable to its superconducting transition temperature) as reflected in large changes in the frequencies of certain phonons with different magnetic ordering, which is used to explain the observed hardening of a Raman-active phonon at temperatures (similar to 100 K) where magnetic ordering sets in. The symmetry of the stripe antiferromagnetic phase permits an induced stress with orthorhombic symmetry, leading to orthorhombic strain as a secondary order parameter at the temperature of magnetic ordering. The presence of Se vacancies in FeSe gives rise to a large peak in the density of states near the Fermi energy, which could enhance the superconducting transition temperature within the BCS-like picture.

Direct versus kinetic exchange in multiband models for organic ferromagnetism

Multiband Hubbard and Pariser-Parr-Pople calculations have been carried out on mixed donor-acceptor (DA) stacks with doubly degenerate acceptor orbitals and nondegenerate donor orbitals at two-thirds filling. Model exact results for 2, 3, and 4 DA units show that McConnell's prediction of high-spin ground states in these systems is, in general, incorrect. The larger phase space available for the low-spin states leads to their kinetic stabilization in preference to high-spin states. However, for large electron-correlation strengths, the direct exchange dominates over the kinetic exchange resulting in a high-spin ground state

Origin of the insulating state in NaCuO2

We study the electronic structure of NaCuO2 by analysing experimental core level photoemission and X-ray absorption spectra using a cluster as well as an Anderson impurity Hamiltonian including the band structure of the oxygen sublattice. We show that the X-ray absorption results unambiguously establish a negative value of the charge transfer energy, A. Further, mean-field calculations for the edge-shared one-dimensional CuO2 lattice of NaCuO2 within the multiband Hubbard Hamiltonian show that the origin of the insulating nature lies in the band structure rather than in the correlation effects. LMTO-ASA band structure calculations suggest that NaCuO2 is an insulator with a gap of around 1 eV.

Rank dependence of orientational relaxation in dipolar systems

An important yet unsolved problem in the field of orientational relaxation in dipolar liquids is the dependence of the correlation functions C(l)(t), C(l)(t) = [4pi/(2l + 1)SIGMA(m = -l)l [Y(lm)(OMEGA(0)Y(lm)(OMEGA(t))] on the rank l (where Y(lm)(OMEGA) are the usual spherical harmonics). The existing theories on this effect differ in their predictions. To investigate this, we have carried out extensive computer simulations of a Brownian dipolar lattice. The dielectric friction was found to decrease rapidly with increasing l, in qualitative agreement with the predictions of Hubbard-Wolynes. However, the observed effect is much stronger than the predictions of the existing theories.

Electronic structure of early 3d-transition-metal oxides by analysis of the 2p core-level photoemission spectra

The electronic structures of a wide range of early transition-metal (TM) compounds, including Ti and V oxides with metal valences ranging from 2+ to 5+ and formal d-electron numbers ranging from 0 to 2, have been investigated by a configuration-interaction cluster model analysis of the core-level metal 2p x-ray photoemission spectra (XPS). Inelastic energy-loss backgrounds calculated from experimentally measured electron-energy-loss spectra (EELS) were subtracted from the XPS spectra to remove extrinsic loss features. Parameter values deduced for the charge-transfer energy Delta and the d-d Coulomb repulsion energy U are shown to continue the systematic trends established previously for the late TM compounds, giving support to a charge-transfer mechanism for the satellite structures. The early TM compounds are characterized by a large metal d-ligand p hybridization energy, resulting in strong covalency in these compounds. Values for Delta and U suggest that many early TM compounds should be reclassified as intermediate between the charge-transfer regime and the Mott-Hubbard regime.