Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Determinants of inbound tourists in Cambodia : a dynamic panel data approach

Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is crucial for the tourism sector. This paper develops a dynamic panel model to examine the determinants of inbound tourists to Siem Reap airport, Phnom Penh airport, and land and waterway borders in Cambodia. Consistent with the consumer theory of tourism consumption, a 10% increase in the origin country GDP per capita is predicted to increase the number of tourist visits to Siem Reap airport by 5.8%. A 10% increase in the real exchange rate between the origin country and Cambodia is predicted to decrease the number of tourist visits by 0.89%. In contrast, the number of foreign tourists in a previous period has little effect on the number of foreign tourists in the current period. Additionally, the determinants are different by the mode of entry to Cambodia.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

Mining and Energy Boom, Dutch Disease and Informality in Colombia: a DSGE Approach

The paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, which assesses the macroeconomic and labor market effects derived from simulating a positive shock to the stochastic component of the mining-energy sector productivity. Calibrating the model for the Colombian economy, this shock generates a whole increase in formal wages and a raise in tax revenues, expanding total consumption of the household members. These facts increase non-tradable goods prices relative to tradable goods prices, then real exchange rate decreases (appreciation) and occurs a displacement of productive resources from the tradable (manufacturing) sector to the non-tradable sector, followed by an increase in formal GDP and formal job gains. This situation makes the formal sector to absorb workers from the informal sector through the non-tradable formal subsector, which causes informal GDP to go down. As a consequence, in the net consumption falls for informal workers, which leads some members of the household not to offer their labor force in the informal sector but instead they prefer to keep unemployed. Therefore, the final result on the labor market is a decrease in the number of informal workers, of which a part are in the formal sector and the rest are unemployed.

Empirical evidence of S-curves in the Colombian

The Marshall-Lerner condition, the J-curve and S-curve have emerged as theoretical and empirical foundations developed for the study of the interaction between exchange rates and international patterns of bilateral trade -- They have a significant bearing on thedevelopment of public policy, and are of equal interest to the academic and professional communities -- The most recently developed of these theories, the S-Curve, is named after the theorized short-run behavior to be found in the cross-correlation function of the real exchange rate and the trade balance -- Considering this theoretical context, the paper seeks empirical evidence of the existence of the S-Curve in the bilateral trade in commodity and non-commodity goods between Colombia and the United States and Venezuela, its main trading partners, for the yearly quarters between 1994:1 and 2009:4

FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND THE BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET

This article discusses the main aspects of the Brazilian real estate market in order to illustrate if it would be attractive for a typical American real estate investor to buy office-building portfolios in Brazil. The article emphasizes: [i] - the regulatory frontiers, comparing investment securitization, using a typical American REIT structure, with the Brazilian solution, using the Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - FII; [ii] - the investment quality attributes in the Brazilian market, using an office building prototype, and [iii] - the comparison of [risk vs. yield] generated by an investment in the Brazilian market, using a FII, benchmarked against an existing REIT (OFFICE SUB-SECTOR) in the USA market. We conclude that investing dollars exchanged for Reais [the Brazilian currency] in a FII with a triple A office-building portfolio in the Sao Paulo marketplace will yield an annual income and a premium return above an American REIT investment. The highly aggressive scenario, along with the strong persistent exchange rate detachment to the IGP-M variations, plus instabilities affecting the generation of income, and even if we adopt a 300-point margin for the Brazil-Risk level, demonstrates that an investment opportunity in the Brazilian market, in the segment we have analyzed, outperforms an equivalent investment in the American market.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

Essays in theoretical and applied macroeconomics

Cette thèse s’articule autour de trois chapitres indépendants qui s’inscrivent dans les champs de la macroéconomie, de l’économie monétaire et de la finance internationale. Dans le premier chapitre, je construis un modèle néo-keynesien d’équilibre général sous incertitude pour examiner les implications de la production domestique des ménages pour la politique monétaire. Le modèle proposé permet de reconcilier deux faits empiriques majeurs: la forte sensibilité du produit intérieur brut aux chocs monétaires (obtenue à partir des modèles VAR), et le faible degré de rigidité nominale observé dans les micro-données. Le deuxième chapitre étudie le role de la transformation structurelle (réallocation de la main d’oeuvre entre secteurs) sur la volatilité de la production aggregée dans un panel de pays. Le troisième chapitre quant à lui met en exergue l’importance de la cartographie des échanges commerciaux pour le choix entre un régime de change fixe et l’arrimage à un panier de devises. "Household Production, Services and Monetary Policy" (Chapitre 1) part de l’observation selon laquelle les ménages peuvent produire à domicile des substituts aux services marchands, contrairement aux biens non durables qu’ils acquièrent presque exclusivement sur le marché. Dans ce contexte, ils procèdent à d’importants arbitrages entre produire les services à domicile ou les acquerir sur le marché, dépendamment des changements dans leur revenu. Pour examiner les implications de tels arbitrages (qui s’avèrent être importants dans les micro-données) le secteur domestique est introduit dans un modèle néo-keyenesien d’équilibre général sous incertitude à deux secteurs (le secteur des biens non durables et le secteur des services) autrement standard. Je montre que les firmes du secteur des services sont moins enclin à changer leurs prix du fait que les ménages ont l’option de produire soit même des services substituts. Ceci se traduit par la présence d’un terme endogène supplémentaire qui déplace la courbe de Phillips dans ce secteur. Ce terme croit avec le degré de substituabilité qui existe entre les services produits à domicile et ceux acquis sur le marché. Cet accroissement de la rigidité nominale amplifie la sensibilité de la production réelle aux chocs monétaires, notamment dans le secteur des services, ce qui est compatible avec l’évidence VAR selon laquelle les services de consommation sont plus sensibles aux variations de taux d’intérêt que les biens non durables. "Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output: A Cross-country Analysis" (Chapitre 2) est basée sur l’évidence empirique d’une relation négative entre la part de la main d’oeuvre allouée au secteur des services et la volatilité de la production aggrégée, même lorsque je contrôle pour les facteurs tels que le développement du secteur financier. Ce resultat aggregé est la conséquence des développements sectoriels: la productivité de la main d’oeuvre est beaucoup plus volatile dans l’agriculture et les industries manufacturières que dans les services. La production aggregée deviendrait donc mécaniquement moins volatile au fur et à mesure que la main d’oeuvre se déplace de l’agriculture et de la manufacture vers les services. Pour évaluer cette hypothèse, je calibre un modèle de transformation structurelle à l’économie américaine, que j’utilise ensuite pour générer l’allocation sectorielle de la main d’oeuvre dans l’agriculture, l’industrie et les services pour les autres pays de l’OCDE. Dans une analyse contre-factuelle, le modèle est utlisé pour restreindre la mobilité de la main d’oeuvre entre secteurs de façon endogène. Les calculs montrent alors que le déplacement de la main d’oeuvre vers le secteur des services réduit en effet la volatilité de la production aggregée. "Exchange Rate Volatility under Alternative Peg Regimes: Do Trade Patterns Matter?" (Chapitre 3) est une contribution à la litterature économique qui s’interesse au choix entre divers regimes de change. J’utilise les données mensuelles de taux de change bilatéraux et de commerce extérieur entre 1980 et 2010 pour les pays membre de l’Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). La monnaie de ces pays (le franc CFA) est arrimée au franc Francais depuis le milieu des années 40 et à l’euro depuis son introduction en 1999. Au moment de l’arrimage initial, la France était le principal partenaire commercial des pays de l’UEMOA. Depuis lors, et plus encore au cours des dix dernières années, la cartographie des échanges de l’union a significativement changé en faveur des pays du groupe des BICs, notamment la Chine. Je montre dans ce chapitre que l’arrimage à un panier de devises aurait induit une volatilité moins pronnoncée du taux de change effectif nominal du franc CFA au cours de la décennie écoulée, comparé à la parité fixe actuelle. Ce chapitre, cependant, n’aborde pas la question de taux de change optimal pour les pays de l’UEMOA, un aspect qui serait intéressant pour une recherche future.

Institutions and Growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 421, April 2016

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth of European countries. When also taking into account the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt, cross-country institutional differences can explain to a great extent the relative long-term GDP performance of European countries. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor long-term real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The quality of national institutions seems to enhance the long-term GDP performance across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The paper offers some evidence that, in the presence of good institutions, conditions for catching-up seem generally good also for euro-area and fixed exchange rate countries. Looking at sub-groupings, it seems that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in the countries where the exchange rate tool is no longer available (and where also sovereign debt is high), and less so in the countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. However, this result is preliminary and requires further research. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular.

Tradução e validação para Portugal do Patient Activation Measure 13 : em pessoas com Diabetes Mellitus tipo 2

RESUMO - Introdução: A Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 (DM2) tem uma elevada prevalência em todo o mundo, com impacto significativo a nível de Saúde Pública, na vida dos doentes e nos custos que lhe são associados. O Patiente Activation Measure 13 (PAM13) é um questionário que possibilita a avaliação das crenças, conhecimentos, motivação e capacidades de uma pessoa em relação à sua saúde; pelo que a sua utilização na DM2 é pertinente. Objetivos: Traduzir o PAM 13, versão curta, para Português de Portugal; Estabelecer as propriedades psicométricas da versão Portuguesa do PAM 13 (PAM13-P); Validar a PAM 13-P num grupo de pessoas com DM2. Material e métodos: O processo de tradução e adaptação cultural do questionário foi composto pelas fases: 1-Tradução, 2-Reconciliação e síntese, 3-Back translation, 4-Rever e sintetizar a Back translation, 5-Harmonização, 6-Revisão do comité de peritos, 7-Cognitive debriefing e 8-Avaliação final. Para validar o PAM13-P realizou-se um estudo observacional transversal analítico com uma amostra de conveniência, de pessoas com DM2, seguidas na Associação Protectora dos Diabéticos de Portugal. O questionário foi de autopreenchimento e foi consultado o processo clínico para obtenção da HbA1c. O tratamento estatístico foi realizado através do SPSS 21® e Winsteps v3.8.1®. Resultados e discussão: O processo de tradução e adaptação cultural foi realizado de acordo com as guidelines. Foram realizados 3 painéis de e-Delphi, com 21 participantes de áreas distintas, tendo-se obtido bons níveis de concordância. As principais modificações realizadas ao questionário foram a simplificação da linguagem e dos itens, obtendo-se as equivalências necessárias. O PAM13-P foi aplicado a 201 pessoas, sendo que a taxa de resposta foi de 83%. Na amostra analisada 57.3% eram homens. Obtiveram-se as médias de idade 67.1 anos e de duração de diabetes 17.3 anos. A média do score do PAM foi 58.5±10.1(41.8-90.5) pontos e 49,7% da amostra estava no nível 3 de ativação. Relativamente aos itens verificou-se que os itens mais difíceis foram o 13(56.1) e o 8(55.4) e o com menor dificuldade foi 4(38.5). As categorias de resposta tiveram um bom ajuste ao Modelo de Rasch. O ajustamento dos itens foi infit entre 0.779-1.177 e outfit entre 0.794-1.315. A fiabilidade dos indivíduos variou entre 0.77(real) e 0.83(modelo) e dos itens foi de 0.97 (real e modelo). O Alfa de Cronbach foi bom (α=0.82). Estas estatísticas foram semelhantes aos da validação do PAM13. Existiu uma relação entre o score do PAM e os itens de validação em 51%. Das variáveis analisadas, existia um relação do nível de ativação com a idade e com a HbA1c. Conclusões: O PAM13-P foi traduzido e adaptado culturalmente para Português e foi validado em pessoas com DM2, sendo as propriedades psicométricas boas.

Level of compliance in contact lens wearing medical doctors in Nepal

PURPOSES: To determine the level of compliance and major non-compliant behaviors in contact lens (CL) wearing medical doctors (MDs) and to compare it with age matched CL wearing normal subjects with no medical background (NS). METHODS: Thirty-nine current CL wearing MDs, who were prescribed CLs in Nepal Eye Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal, between 2007 and 2011, were interviewed on ten modifiable compliant behaviors regarding lens care and maintenance. The level of compliance and the rate of non-compliance for each behavior were determined and compared with NS. RESULTS: Level of compliance was good, average and poor in 35.9%, 48.7% and 15.4% of MDs, respectively. There was no significant difference in compliance between MDs and NS (p=0.209). Level of compliance was not associated with age, gender and duration of lens wear (p>0.05). Compliance rate varied according to different behaviors, achieving a good compliance level of 95% for hand hygiene, avoidance of water contact and not sleeping with lenses. There was poor compliance for topping up solution (53.8%) and lens case replacement (15.4%). CONCLUSION: About one third of MDs had a good level of compliance. Level of compliance and compliance rate of different behaviors were similar in MDs and NS. Periodic lens case replacement was the most neglected behavior in CL wearers for this region.

Price level convergence, purchasing power parity and multiple structural breaks: an application to US cities

This article provides a fresh methodological and empirical approach for assessing price level convergence and its relation to purchasing power parity (PPP) using annual price data for seventeen US cities. We suggest a new procedure that can handle a wide range of PPP concepts in the presence of multiple structural breaks using all possible pairs of real exchange rates. To deal with cross-sectional dependence, we use both cross-sectional demeaned data and a parametric bootstrap approach. In general, we find more evidence for stationarity when the parity restriction is not imposed, while imposing parity restriction provides leads toward the rejection of the panel stationar- ity. Our results can be embedded on the view of the Balassa-Samuelson approach, but where the slope of the time trend is allowed to change in the long-run. The median half-life point estimate are found to be lower than the consensus view regardless of the parity restriction.