Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Finite element modelling of dissipative structures for nonequilibrium chemical reactions in fluid-saturated porous media

We use the finite element method to model and predict the dissipative structures of chemical species for a nonequilibrium chemical reaction system in a fluid-saturated porous medium. In particular, we explore the conditions under which dissipative structures of the species may exist in the Brusselator type of nonequilibrium chemical reaction. Since this is the first time the finite element method and related strategies have been used to study the chemical instability problems in a fluid-saturated porous medium, it is essential to validate the method and strategies before they are put into application. For this purpose, we have rigorously derived the analytical solutions for dissipative structures of chemical species in a benchmark problem, which geometrically is a square. Comparison of the numerical solutions with the analytical ones demonstrates that the proposed numerical method and strategy are robust enough to solve chemical instability problems in a fluid-saturated porous medium. Finally, the related numerical results from two application examples indicate that both the regime and the magnitude of pore-fluid flow have significant effects on the nature of the dissipative structures that developed for a nonequilibrium chemical reaction system in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The motivation for this study is that self-organization under conditions of pore-fluid flow in a porous medium is a potential mechanism of the orebody formation and mineralization in the upper crust of the Earth. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Bonding effects and the crystal structures of (NH4)(2)[Cu(H2O)(6)](SO4)(2) and its (H2O)-O-18 substituted form at 9.5 K

The crystal structures of the Tutton salts (NH4)(2)[Cu(H2O)(6)](SO4)(2), diammonium hexaaquacopper disulfate, formed with normal water and isotopically substituted (H2O)-O-18, have been determined by X-ray diffraction at 9.5 K and are very similar, with Cu-O(7) the longest of the Cu-O bonds of the Jahn-Teller distorted octahedral [Cu(H2O)(6)](2+) complex. It is known that structural differences accompany deuteration of (NH4)(2)[Cu(H2O)(6)](SO4)(2), the most dramatic of which is a switch to Cu-O(8) as the longest such bond. The present result suggests that the structural differences are associated with hydrogen-bonding effects rather than with increased mass of the water ligands affecting the Jahn-Teller coupling. The Jahn-Teller distortions and hydrogen-bonding contacts in the compounds are compared with those reported for other Tutton salts at ambient and high pressure.

Cohort trends in youth suicide in Australia 1964-1997

Objective: This paper examines trends in the rate of suicide among young Australians aged 15-24 years from 1964 to 1997 and presents an age-period-cohort analysis of these trends. Method: Study design consisted of an age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality in Australian youth aged between 15 and 24 for the years 1964-1997 inclusive. Data sources were Australian Bureau of Statistics data on: numbers of deaths due to suicide by gender and age at death; and population at risk in each of eight birth cohorts (1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). Main outcome measures were population rates of deaths among males and females in each birth cohort attributed to suicide in each year 1964-1997. Results: The rate of suicide deaths among Australian males aged 15-24 years increased from 8.7 per 100 000 in 1964 to 30.9 per 100 000 in 1997, with the rate among females changing little over the period, from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1964 to 7.1 per 100 000 in 1997. While the rate of deaths attributed to suicide increased over the birth cohorts, analyses revealed that these increases were largely due to period effects, with suicide twice as likely among those aged 15-24 years in 1985-1997 than between 1964 and 1969. Conclusions: The rate of youth suicide in Australia has increased since 1964, particularly among males. This increase can largely be attributed to period effects rather than to a cohort effect and has been paralleled by an increased rate of youth suicides internationally and by an increase in other psychosocial problems including psychiatric illness, criminal offending and substance use disorders.

Solution structures in aqueous SDS micelles of two amyloid beta peptides of A beta(1-28) mutated at the alpha-secretase cleavage site (K16E, K16F)

NMR solution structures are reported for two mutants (K16E, K16F) of the soluble amyloid beta peptide A beta(1-28). The structural effects of these mutations of a positively charged residue to anionic and hydrophobic residues at the alpha-secretase cleavage site (Lys16-Leu17) were examined in the membrane-simulating solvent aqueous SDS micelles. Overall the three-dimensional structures were similar to that for the native A beta(1-28) sequence in that they contained an unstructured N-terminus and a helical C-terminus. These structural elements are similar to those seen in the corresponding regions of full-length A beta peptides A beta(1-40) and A beta(1-42), showing that the shorter peptides are valid model systems. The K16E mutation, which might be expected to stabilize the macrodipole of the helix, slightly increased the helix length (residues 13-24) relative to the K16F mutation, which shortened the helix to between residues 16 and 24. The observed sequence-dependent control over conformation in this region provides an insight into possible conformational switching roles of mutations in the amyloid precursor protein from which A beta peptides are derived. In addition, if conformational transitions from helix to random coil to sheet precede aggregation of A beta peptides in vivo, as they do in vitro, the conformation-inducing effects of mutations at Lys16 may also influence aggregation and fibril formation. (C) 2000 Academic Press.

Seeing is believing: Recent trends in the measurement of Ca2+ in subcellular domains and intracellular organelles

The role of Ca2+ in the regulation of the cell cycle has been investigated mostly in studies assessing global cytosolic free Ca2+. Recent studies, however, have used unique techniques to assess Ca2+ in subcellular organelles, such as mitochondria, and in discrete regions of the cytoplasm. These studies have used advanced fluorescence digital imaging techniques and Ca2+-sensitive fluorescence probes, and/or targeting of Ca2+-sensitive proteins to intracellular organelles. The present review describes the results of some of these studies and the techniques used. The novel techniques used to measure Ca2+ in microdomains and intracellular organelles are likely to be of great use in future investigations assessing Ca2+ homeostasis during the cell cycle.

Mesoionic pyridopyrimidinylium and pyridooxazinylium olates and non-mesoionic pyridopyrimidinones. Structures in the solid state, solution, and matrices

X-Ray crystal structures, C-13 NMR spectra and theoretical calculations (B3LYP/6-31G*) are reported for the mesoionic (zwitterionic) pyridopyrimidinylium- and pyridooxazinyliumolates 2a, 3a and 5a,b as well as the enol ether 11b and the enamine 11c. The 1-NH compounds like 1a, 2a and 3a exist in the mesoionic form in the crystal and in solution, but the OH tautomers such as 1b and 2b dominate in the gas phase as revealed by the Ar matrix IR spectra in conjunction with DFT calculations. All data indicate that the mesoionic compounds can be regarded as intramolecular pyridine-ketene zwitterions (cf. 16 --> 17) with a high degree of positive charge on the pyridinium nitrogen, a long pyridinium N-CO bond (ca. 1.44-1.49 Angstrom), and normal C=O double bonds (ca. 1.22 Angstrom). All mesoionic compounds exhibit a pronounced tilting of the olate C=O groups (the C=O groups formally derived from a ketene) towards the pyridinium nitrogen, giving NCO angles of 110-118 degrees. Calculations reveal a hydrogen bond with 6-CH, analogous to what is found in ketene-pyridine zwitterions and the C3O2-pyridine complex. The 2-OH tautomers of type 1b, 2b, and 11 also show a high degree of zwitterionic character as indicated by the canonical structures 11 12.

Kinematic and non-linear analysis of foldable barrel vaults

Kinematic analysis is conducted to derive the geometric constraints for the geometric design of foldable barrel vaults (FBV) composed of polar or angulated scissor units. Non-linear structural analysis is followed to determine the structural response of FBVs in the fully deployed configuration under static loading. Two load cases are considered: cross wind and longitudinal wind. The effect of varying member sizes, depth-to-span ratio and geometric imperfections is examined. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Youth suicide trends in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, 1988-1997

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine trends in suicide among 15-34-year-olds living in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas between 1988 and 1997. Method: Suicide and population data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We calculated overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-24 and 25-34-year-old males and females separately, according to area of residence defined as non-metropolitan (less than or equal to 20 000 people) or metropolitan. Results: Between 1988 and 1997 suicide rates in 15-24-year-old non-metropolitan males were consistently 50% higher than metropolitan 15-24-year-olds. In 1995-1997, for example, the rates were: 38.2 versus 25.1 per 100 000 respectively (p < 0.0001). The reverse pattern was seen in 25-34-year-old females with higher rates in metropolitan areas (7.5 per 100 000) compared with non-metropolitan areas (6.1 per 100 000, p = 0.21) in 1995-1997. There were no significant differences according to area of residence in 25-34-year-old males or 15-24-year-old females. Over the years studied we found no clear evidence that suicide rates increased to a greater extent in rural than urban areas. Rates of hanging suicide have approximately doubled in both sexes and age groups in both settings over this time. Despite an approximate halving in firearm suicide, rates remain 3-fold higher among non-metropolitan residents. Conclusion: Non-metropolitan males aged 15-24 years have disproportionately higher rates of suicide than their metropolitan counterparts. Reasons for this require further investigation. Hanging is now the most favoured method of non-metropolitan suicide replacing firearms from 10 years ago. Although legislation may reduce method-specific suicide the potential for method-substitution means that overall rates may not fall. More comprehensive interventions are therefore required.

Social structures, genetic structures and dispersal strategies in Australian rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations

In this study, the pattern of movement of young male and female rabbits and the genetic structures present in adult male and female populations in four habitats was examined. The level of philopatry in young animals was found to vary between 18-90% for males and 32-95% for females in different populations. It was skewed, with more males dispersing than females in some but not all populations. Analysis of allozyme data using spatial autocorrelation showed that adult females from the same social group, unlike males, were significantly related in four of the five populations studied. Changes in genetic structure and rate of dispersal were measured before and during the recovery of a population that was artificially reduced in size. There were changes in the rate and distance of dispersal with density and sex. Subadults of both sexes moved further in the first year post crash (low density) than in the following years. While the level of dispersal for females was lower than that of the males for the first 3 years, thereafter (high density) both sexes showed similar, low levels of dispersal (20%). The density at which young animals switch behaviour between dispersal and philopatry differed for males and females. The level of genetic structuring in adult females was high in the precrash population, reduced in the first year post crash and undetectable in the second year. Dispersal behaviour of rabbits both affects the genetic structure of the population and changes with conditions. Over a wide range of levels of philopatry, genetic structuring is present in the adult female, but not the male population. Consequently, though genetic structuring is present, it does not lead to inbreeding. More long-distance movements are found in low-density populations, even though vacant warrens are available near birth warrens. The distances moved decreased as density increased. Calculation of the effective population size (N-e) shows that changes in dispersal distance offset changes in density, so that N-e remains constant.

Large amplitude folding in finely layered viscoelastic rock structures

We analyze folding phenomena in finely layered viscoelastic rock. Fine is meant in the sense that the thickness of each layer is considerably smaller than characteristic structural dimensions. For this purpose we derive constitutive relations and apply a computational simulation scheme (a finite-element based particle advection scheme; see MORESI et al., 2001) suitable for problems involving very large deformations of layered viscous and viscoelastic rocks. An algorithm for the time integration of the governing equations as well as details of the finite-element implementation is also given. We then consider buckling instabilities in a finite, rectangular domain. Embedded within this domain, parallel to the longer dimension we consider a stiff, layered plate. The domain is compressed along the layer axis by prescribing velocities along the sides. First, for the viscous limit we consider the response to a series of harmonic perturbations of the director orientation. The Fourier spectra of the initial folding velocity are compared for different viscosity ratios. Turning to the nonlinear regime we analyze viscoelastic folding histories up to 40% shortening. The effect of layering manifests itself in that appreciable buckling instabilities are obtained at much lower viscosity ratios (1:10) as is required for the buckling of isotropic plates (1:500). The wavelength induced by the initial harmonic perturbation of the director orientation seems to be persistent. In the section of the parameter space considered here elasticity seems to delay or inhibit the occurrence of a second, larger wavelength. Finally, in a linear instability analysis we undertake a brief excursion into the potential role of couple stresses on the folding process. The linear instability analysis also provides insight into the expected modes of deformation at the onset of instability, and the different regimes of behavior one might expect to observe.