The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Environmental variation at the onset of independent foraging affects full-grown body mass in the red fox

The period following the withdrawal of parental care has been highlighted as a key developmental period for juveniles. One reason for this is that juveniles cannot forage as competently as adults, potentially placing them at greater risk from environmentally-induced changes in food availability. However, no study has examined this topic. Using a long-term dataset on red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), we examined (i) dietary changes that occurred in the one-month period following the attainment of nutritional independence, (ii) diet composition in relation to climatic variation, and (iii) the effect of climatic variation on subsequent full-grown mass. Diet at nutritional independence contained increased quantities of easy-to-catch food items (earthworms and insects) when compared with pre-independence. Interannual variation in the volume of rainfall at nutritional independence was positively correlated to the proportion of earthworms in cub diet. Pre-independence cub mass and rainfall immediately following nutritional independence explained a significant proportion of variance in full-grown mass, with environmental variation affecting full-grown mass of the entire cohorts. Thus, weather-mediated availability of easy-to-catch food items at a key developmental stage has lifelong implications for the development of juvenile foxes by affecting full-grown mass, which in turn appears to be an important component of individual reproductive potential.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Commentary on 'Prebiotics, immune function, infection and inflammation: a review of the evidence'

There is a growing awareness that the gut microbiota and an appropriately functioning immune system play an important role in maintaining human health. Recent population statistics have highlighted some worrying trends, specifically that there is a growing burden of immunological disease in Western populations, that Western populations are ageing, and that obesity, with its strong inflammatory component, is reaching epidemic proportions.

A systematic review of the routine monitoring of growth in children of primary school age to identify growth-related conditions

Objectives: To clarify the role of growth monitoring in primary school children, including obesity, and to examine issues that might impact on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of such programmes. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to July 2005. Experts in the field were also consulted. Review methods: Data extraction and quality assessment were performed on studies meeting the review's inclusion criteria. The performance of growth monitoring to detect disorders of stature and obesity was evaluated against National Screening Committee (NSC) criteria. Results: In the 31 studies that were included in the review, there were no controlled trials of the impact of growth monitoring and no studies of the diagnostic accuracy of different methods for growth monitoring. Analysis of the studies that presented a 'diagnostic yield' of growth monitoring suggested that one-off screening might identify between 1: 545 and 1: 1793 new cases of potentially treatable conditions. Economic modelling suggested that growth monitoring is associated with health improvements [ incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of pound 9500] and indicated that monitoring was cost-effective 100% of the time over the given probability distributions for a willingness to pay threshold of pound 30,000 per QALY. Studies of obesity focused on the performance of body mass index against measures of body fat. A number of issues relating to human resources required for growth monitoring were identified, but data on attitudes to growth monitoring were extremely sparse. Preliminary findings from economic modelling suggested that primary prevention may be the most cost-effective approach to obesity management, but the model incorporated a great deal of uncertainty. Conclusions: This review has indicated the potential utility and cost-effectiveness of growth monitoring in terms of increased detection of stature-related disorders. It has also pointed strongly to the need for further research. Growth monitoring does not currently meet all NSC criteria. However, it is questionable whether some of these criteria can be meaningfully applied to growth monitoring given that short stature is not a disease in itself, but is used as a marker for a range of pathologies and as an indicator of general health status. Identification of effective interventions for the treatment of obesity is likely to be considered a prerequisite to any move from monitoring to a screening programme designed to identify individual overweight and obese children. Similarly, further long-term studies of the predictors of obesity-related co-morbidities in adulthood are warranted. A cluster randomised trial comparing growth monitoring strategies with no growth monitoring in the general population would most reliably determine the clinical effectiveness of growth monitoring. Studies of diagnostic accuracy, alongside evidence of effective treatment strategies, could provide an alternative approach. In this context, careful consideration would need to be given to target conditions and intervention thresholds. Diagnostic accuracy studies would require long-term follow-up of both short and normal children to determine sensitivity and specificity of growth monitoring.

The eMinerals project: developing the concept of the virtual organisation to support collaborative work on molecular-scale environmental simulations

The eMinerals project has established an integrated compute and data minigrid infrastructure together with a set of collaborative tools,. The infrastructure is designed to support molecular simulation scientists working together as a virtual organisation aiming to understand a number of strategic processes in environmental science. The eMinerals virtual organisation is now working towards applying this infrastructure to tackle a new generation of scientific problems. This paper describes the achievements of the eMinerals virtual organisation to date, and describes ongoing applications of the virtual organisation infrastructure.

Effects of dietary fat modification on insulin sensitivity and on other risk factors of the metabolic syndrome—LIPGENE: a European randomized dietary intervention study

Background:Excessive energy intake and obesity lead to the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) may be particularly detrimental on insulin sensitivity (SI) and on other components of the MetS. Objective:This study determined the relative efficacy of reducing dietary SFA, by isoenergetic alteration of the quality and quantity of dietary fat, on risk factors associated with MetS. Design:A free-living, single-blinded dietary intervention study. Subjects and Methods:MetS subjects (n=417) from eight European countries completed the randomized dietary intervention study with four isoenergetic diets distinct in fat quantity and quality: high-SFA; high-monounsaturated fatty acids and two low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diets, supplemented with long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs) (1.2 g per day) or placebo for 12 weeks. SI estimated from an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) was the primary outcome measure. Lipid and inflammatory markers associated with MetS were also determined. Results:In weight-stable subjects, reducing dietary SFA intake had no effect on SI, total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, inflammation or blood pressure in the entire cohort. The LFHCC n-3 PUFA diet reduced plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) and non-esterified fatty acid concentrations (P<0.01), particularly in men. Conclusion:There was no effect of reducing SFA on SI in weight-stable obese MetS subjects. LC n-3 PUFA supplementation, in association with a low-fat diet, improved TAG-related MetS risk profiles.

A generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact for the Building Lifecycle

A generic model of Exergy Assessment is proposed for the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle, with a special focus on the natural environment. Three environmental impacts: energy consumption, resource consumption and pollutant discharge have been analyzed with reference to energy-embodied exergy, resource chemical exergy and abatement exergy, respectively. The generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle thus formulated contains two sub-models, one from the aspect of building energy utilization and the other from building materials use. Combined with theories by ecologists such as Odum, the paper evaluates a building's environmental sustainability through its exergy footprint and environmental impacts. A case study from Chongqing, China illustrates the application of this method. From the case study, it was found that energy consumption constitutes 70–80% of the total environmental impact during a 50-year building lifecycle, in which the operation phase accounts for 80% of the total environmental impact, the building material production phase 15% and 5% for the other phases.

Associations between dairy consumption and body weight: a review of the evidence and underlying mechanisms

As the incidence of obesity is reaching 'epidemic' proportions, there is currently widespread interest in the impact of dietary components on body-weight and food intake regulation. The majority of data available from both epidemiological and intervention studies provide evidence of a negative but modest association between milk and dairy product consumption and BMI and other measures of adiposity, with indications that higher intakes result in increased weight loss and lean tissue maintenance during energy restriction. The purported physiological and molecular mechanisms underlying the impact of dairy constituents on adiposity are incompletely understood but may include effects on lipolysis, lipogeneis and fatty acid absorption. Furthermore, accumulating evidence indicates an impact of dairy constituents, in particular whey protein derivatives, on appetite regulation and food intake. The present review summarises available data and provides an insight into the likely contribution of dairy foods to strategies aimed at appetite regulation, weight loss or the prevention of weight gain.

In vitro examination of the effect of Orlistat on the ability of the faecal microbiota to utilize dietary lipids

Orlistat is an anti-obesity treatment with which several gastrointestinal (GI) side-effects are commonly associated in the initial stages of therapy. There is no physiological explanation as to why two-thirds of those who take the drug experience one or more side-effects. It has been hypothesized that the GI microbiota may protect from or contribute to these GI disturbances. Using in vitro batch culture and human gut model systems, studies were conducted to determine whether increased availability of dietary lipids and/or orlistat affect the composition and/or activity of the faecal microbiota. Results from 24-h batch culture fermentation experiments demonstrated no effect of orlistat in the presence or absence of a dietary lipid (olive oil) on the composition of bacterial communities [as determined by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analyses], but did show there was great variability in the lipolytic activities of the microbiotas of individuals, as determined by gas chromatography analysis of long-chain fatty acids in samples. Subsequent studies focused on the effect of orlistat in the presence and absence of lipid in in vitro human gut model systems. Systems were run for 14 days with gut model medium (GMM) only (to steady state, SS), then fed at 12-h intervals with 50 mg orlistat, 2 g olive oil or a mixture of both for 14 days. FISH and DGGE were used to monitor changes in bacterial populations. Bacteria were cultivated from the GMM only (control) systems at SS. All strains isolated were screened for lipolytic activity using tributyrin agar. FISH and DGGE demonstrated that none of the compounds (singly or in combination) added to the systems had any notable effect on microbial population dynamics for any of the donors, although Subdoligranulum populations appeared to be inhibited by orlistat in the presence or absence of lipid. Orlistat had little or no effect on the metabolism of indigenous and added lipids in the fermentation systems, but there was great variability in the way the faecal microbiotas of the donors were able to degrade added lipids. Variability in lipid degradation could be correlated with the number and activity of isolated lipolytic bacteria. The mechanism by which orlistat and the GI microbiota cause side-effects in individuals is unknown, but several hypotheses have been proposed to account for their manifestation. The demonstration of great variability in the lipolytic activity of microbiotas to degrade lipids led to a large-scale cultivation-based study of lipolytic/lipase-positive bacteria present in the human faecal microbiota. Of 4,000 colonies isolated from 15 donors using five different agars, 378 strains were identified that had lipase activity. Molecular identification of strains isolated from five donors demonstrated that lipase activity is more prevalent in the human GI microbiota than previously thought, with members of the phyla Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes and Actinobacteria identified. Molecular identification and characterization of the substrate specificities of the strains will be carried out as part of ongoing work.