Seemingly unrelated linear regression for contaminated data based on Gaussian mixtures

In this thesis, new classes of models for multivariate linear regression defined by finite mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regression models and seemingly unrelated contaminated normal cluster-weighted models are illustrated. The main difference between such families is that the covariates are treated as fixed in the former class of models and as random in the latter. Thus, in cluster-weighted models the assignment of the data points to the unknown groups of observations depends also by the covariates. These classes provide an extension to mixture-based regression analysis for modelling multivariate and correlated responses in the presence of mild outliers that allows to specify a different vector of regressors for the prediction of each response. Expectation-conditional maximisation algorithms for the calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters have been derived. As the number of free parameters incresases quadratically with the number of responses and the covariates, analyses based on the proposed models can become unfeasible in practical applications. These problems have been overcome by introducing constraints on the elements of the covariance matrices according to an approach based on the eigen-decomposition of the covariance matrices. The performances of the new models have been studied by simulations and using real datasets in comparison with other models. In order to gain additional flexibility, mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regressions models have also been specified so as to allow mixing proportions to be expressed as functions of concomitant covariates. An illustration of the new models with concomitant variables and a study on housing tension in the municipalities of the Emilia-Romagna region based on different types of multivariate linear regression models have been performed.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Elevated Cetp Activity During Acute Phase Of Myocardial Infarction Is Independently Associated With Endothelial Dysfunction And Adverse Clinical Outcome.

Recent data suggests that cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) activity may interact with acute stress conditions via inflammatory-oxidative response and thrombogenesis. We investigated this assumption in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Consecutive patients with STEMI (n = 116) were enrolled <24-h of symptoms onset and were followed for 180 days. Plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-2 (IL-2), tumor necrosis factor (TNFα), 8-isoprostane, nitric oxide (NOx) and CETP activity were measured at enrollment (D1) and at fifth day (D5). Flow-mediated dilation (FMD) was assessed by ultrasound and coronary thrombus burden (CTB) was evaluated by angiography. Neither baseline nor the change of CETP activity from D1 to D5 was associated with CRP, IL-2, TNFα, 8-isoprostane levels or CTB. The rise in NOx from D1 to D5 was inferior [3.5(-1; 10) vs. 5.5(-1; 12); p < 0.001] and FMD was lower [5.9(5.5) vs. 9.6(6.6); p = 0.047] in patients with baseline CETP activity above the median value than in their counterparts. Oxidized HDL was measured by thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in isolated HDL particles and increased from D1 to D5, and remaining elevated at D30. The change in TBARS content in HDL was associated with CETP activity (r = 0.72; p = 0.014) and FMD (r = -0.61; p = 0.046). High CETP activity at admission was associated with the incidence of sudden death and recurrent MI at 30 days (OR 12.8; 95% CI 1.25-132; p = 0.032) and 180 days (OR 3.3; 95% CI 1.03-10.7; p = 0.044). An enhanced CETP activity during acute phase of STEMI is independently associated with endothelial dysfunction and adverse clinical outcome.

Estilos motivacionais de professores: propriedades psicométricas de um instrumento de avaliação

The purpose of this study was to conduct an exploratory factorial analysis of Problems in School, a teachers' motivational styles evaluation instrument, constructed by Deci et al. The original instrument is in a Likert-scale format with the underlying assumption of the existence of a continuum of four different styles contributing to promote students' autonomy. Translated into portuguese, the instrument was applied to 582 elementary and junior high school teachers from several regions of Brazil. Factorial analyses revealed a solution with four orthogonal distinct factors, the authors' initial supposition (existence of a continuum) was not confirmed. In fact, only two opposite styles (both high promotion of autonomy and of control) corresponded to the Deci et al. original ideas. Problems regarding the validity of the other remaining styles emerged. Data was discussed and a revised version of the scale was developed. Directions for further research were also suggested.

Sensitivity and specificity of machine learning classifiers for glaucoma diagnosis using Spectral Domain OCT and standard automated perimetry

PURPOSE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of machine learning classifiers (MLCs) for glaucoma diagnosis using Spectral Domain OCT (SD-OCT) and standard automated perimetry (SAP). METHODS: Observational cross-sectional study. Sixty two glaucoma patients and 48 healthy individuals were included. All patients underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination, achromatic standard automated perimetry (SAP) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) imaging with SD-OCT (Cirrus HD-OCT; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc., Dublin, California). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were obtained for all SD-OCT parameters and global indices of SAP. Subsequently, the following MLCs were tested using parameters from the SD-OCT and SAP: Bagging (BAG), Naive-Bayes (NB), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Random Forest (RAN), Ensemble Selection (ENS), Classification Tree (CTREE), Ada Boost M1(ADA),Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) and Support Vector Machine Gaussian (SVMG). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (aROC) obtained for isolated SAP and OCT parameters were compared with MLCs using OCT+SAP data. RESULTS: Combining OCT and SAP data, MLCs' aROCs varied from 0.777(CTREE) to 0.946 (RAN).The best OCT+SAP aROC obtained with RAN (0.946) was significantly larger the best single OCT parameter (p<0.05), but was not significantly different from the aROC obtained with the best single SAP parameter (p=0.19). CONCLUSION: Machine learning classifiers trained on OCT and SAP data can successfully discriminate between healthy and glaucomatous eyes. The combination of OCT and SAP measurements improved the diagnostic accuracy compared with OCT data alone.

A dança na formação docente em educação física

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

O jogo de futebol no contexto escolar e extraescolar : encontro, confronto e atualização

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

A eficacia e a heterocronia das respostas de adaptação de basquetebolistas submetidos a diferentes modelos de estruturação da carga de treinamento e competição

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Magnetização remanescente: um parâmetro crucial para a interpretação e modelamento de anomalias magnéticas em território brasileiro

A questão da magnetização remanescente na interpretação de anomalias magnéticas é frequentemente negligenciada, principalmente em função da dificuldade em se lidar com a mesma. Na maioria dos casos, tanto nos trabalhos acadêmicos quanto nos modelos que circulam nos meios profissionais da exploração mineral e de petróleo, assume-se que a magnetização remanescente é desprezível e utiliza-se apenas a induzida. O presente artigo mostra que o uso desse parâmetro é particularmente importante no tocante às anomalias magnéticas brasileiras, e procura fornecer subsídios para o uso desta informação. Discute-se o uso de duas técnicas consagradas, a Redução ao Pólo e o Sinal Analítico, em anomalias brasileiras com e sem magnetização remanescente. Mostramos a aplicação da técnica de determinação da magnetização total, permitindo que os modelos sejam construídos a partir da resultante da soma das magnetizações induzida e remanescente, e posteriormente apresentamos uma metodologia de uso da informação remanescente na datação das rochas fonte.

Analyzing the n→π* Electronic Transition of Formaldehyde in Water. A Sequential Monte Carlo/Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory

The n→π* absorption transition of formaldehyde in water is analyzed using combined and sequential classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and quantum mechanics (QM) calculations. MC simulations generate the liquid solute-solvent structures for subsequent QM calculations. Using time-dependent density functional theory in a localized set of gaussian basis functions (TD-DFT/6-311++G(d,p)) calculations are made on statistically relevant configurations to obtain the average solvatochromic shift. All results presented here use the electrostatic embedding of the solvent. The statistically converged average result obtained of 2300 cm-1 is compared to previous theoretical results available. Analysis is made of the effective dipole moment of the hydrogen-bonded shell and how it could be held responsible for the polarization of the solvent molecules in the outer solvation shells.

Corporeidade e ação nos processos de formação do eu

Parte-se da hipótese de que tanto os modos de constituição da subjetividade, quanto as teses epistemológicas sobre a formação do eu têm sofrido importantes mudanças nas últimas décadas. No plano das identidades pessoais, tal fato se expressa no atenuamento do ideário intimista, tradicionalmente centrado na idéia da vida mental como espaço privado e interior. No plano epistemológico, diferentes saberes vêm questionando a equivalência entre vida mental e interioridade psicológica e propondo descrições da origem do eu que incluam a dimensão da corporeidade e da ação. Considerando as noções de representação e de ação como eixos fundamentais para diferentes concepções da subjetividade, este artigo examina um modelo internalista do psiquismo, contrastando-o com outro que toma o eu como agente corporificado.

Learning processes and the neural analysis of conditioning

Classical and operant conditioning principles, such as the behavioral discrepancy-derived assumption that reinforcement always selects antecedent stimulus and response relations, have been studied at the neural level, mainly by observing the strengthening of neuronal responses or synaptic connections. A review of the literature on the neural basis of behavior provided extensive scientific data that indicate a synthesis between the two conditioning processes based mainly on stimulus control in learning tasks. The resulting analysis revealed the following aspects. Dopamine acts as a behavioral discrepancy signal in the midbrain pathway of positive reinforcement, leading toward the nucleus accumbens. Dopamine modulates both types of conditioning in the Aplysia mollusk and in mammals. In vivo and in vitro mollusk preparations show convergence of both types of conditioning in the same motor neuron. Frontal cortical neurons are involved in behavioral discrimination in reversal and extinction procedures, and these neurons preferentially deliver glutamate through conditioned stimulus or discriminative stimulus pathways. Discriminative neural responses can reliably precede operant movements and can also be common to stimuli that share complex symbolic relations. The present article discusses convergent and divergent points between conditioning paradigms at the neural level of analysis to advance our knowledge on reinforcement.

Fontes vegetais naturais de antioxidantes

Growing knowledge on the health-promoting impact of antioxidants in everyday foods, combined with the assumption that a number of common synthetic preservatives may have hazardous side effects has led to increased investigations in the field of natural antioxidants, principally those found in plants. Food industries normally discard plant residues that could benefit the human health and diminish undesirable environmental impact. Once estimated the content of antioxidants in these residues, advantageous economical and social alternatives to the discard are possible, for example, their use for preparation of nutraceuticals to be offered to low-income populations. We present here a broad, although not complete, account of the continuously growing knowledge on the antioxidant capacity of whole fruits, seeds and peels, cereals, vegetal oils and aromatic plants, at several physical forms, as well as a description of the usual methods for evaluating their antioxidant capacity and examples of agroindustrial processes that could be harnessed for the production of antioxidant supplement food, along with research perspectives in the area.

Questões contemporâneas sobre natureza e cultura: notas sobre a Saúde Coletiva e a sociologia no Brasil

O presente artigo discute alguns aspectos da relação entre biológico e social, tomando por objeto o campo da Saúde Coletiva no Brasil e o campo das Ciências Sociais, mais especificamente a sociologia. Parte-se do pressuposto de que o conceito que norteia o campo da Saúde Coletiva, o da determinação social (formulado em meados dos anos 1970 e 1980), foi profundamente marcado por certa leitura do social, impregnada dos marcos teóricos clássicos das ciências sociais e marcada pelo cenário político-institucional em que os campos - da Saúde Coletiva e das Ciências Sociais - encontravam-se historicamente. O objetivo é discutir o esgotamento dessa formulação teórica tendo em vista o cenário das profundas mudanças ocorridas nas sociedades contemporâneas em sua etapa industrial tardia, pós-industrial ou tardo-moderna. Acredita-se que a discussão sobre os marcos teóricos constitutivos do campo da Saúde Coletiva contribuirá para um enfrentamento das questões de saúde mais consoante com as mudanças sociais ocorridas.

Aspectos conceituais da regulação dos serviços de água e esgoto no Brasil

Objetiva-se, aqui, apresentar os aspectos conceituais da regulação da prestação dos serviços de água e esgoto no Brasil e analisar de forma comparativa essa regulação com a de outros setores da infraestrutura. O estudo parte do pressuposto da regulação como intervenção do Estado voltada para a eficiência e a equidade, e apresenta os fundamentos teóricos que justificam essa regulação de forma contextualizada às características do setor de água e esgoto. Mediante análise comparativa com outros setores de infraestrutura de redes, concluí-se que, em função das características físicas, econômicas e institucionais do setor de água e esgoto, será bastante complexo o estabelecimento efetivo dessa atividade conforme os princípios da lei nº 11.445/2007.