Finite element analysis of laminated anisotropic beams of bimodulus materials

This paper presents finite element analysis of laminated anisotropic beams of bimodulus materials. The finite element has 16 d.o.f. and uses the displacement field in terms of first order Hermite interpolation polynomials. As the neutral axis position may change from point to point along the length of the beam, an iterative procedure is employed to determine the location of zero strain points along the length. Using this element some problems of laminated beams of bimodulus materials are solved for concentrated loads/moments perpendicular and parallel to the layering planes as well as combined loads.

Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia

In this paper, we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in Australia over a period of five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach used in an Australian study of this type to include energy, capital and labour as separate inputs of production. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space, as are conventional inputs capital and labour. We also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between GDP and energy use. Although the evidence of causality from energy use to GDP was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use, once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality, we found strong evidence of Granger causality from energy use to GDP in Australia over the investigated period. The results are robust, irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models, and are applicable for different econometric approaches.

Co2 emissions and income trajectory in Australia: The role of technological change

This study investigates the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and per capita GDP in Australia, while controlling for technological state as measured by multifactor productivity and export of black coal. Although technological progress seems to play a critical role in achieving long term goals of CO2 reduction and economic growth, empirical studies have often considered time trend to proxy technological change. However, as discoveries and diffusion of new technologies may not progress smoothly with time, the assumption of a deterministic technological progress may be incorrect in the long run. The use of multifactor productivity as a measure of technological state, therefore, overcomes the limitations and provides practical policy directions. This study uses recently developed bound-testing approach, which is complemented by Johansen- Juselius maximum likelihood approach and a reasonably large sample size to investigate the cointegration relationship. Both of the techniques suggest that cointegration relationship exists among the variables. The long-run and short-run coefficients of CO2 emissions function is estimated using ARDL approach. The empirical findings in the study show evidence of the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve type relationship for per capita CO2 emissions in the Australian context. The technology as measured by the multifactor productivity, however, is not found as an influencing variable in emissionsincome trajectory.

Energy-output linkages in Australia: Implications for emissions reduction policies

The study investigates the long-run and dynamic relationships between energy consumption and output in Australia using a multivariate cointegration and causality framework. Using both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration approaches, the study finds that energy consumption and real Gross Domestic Product are cointegrated. The Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and real GDP, and Granger endogeineity in the system. Since the energy sector largely contributes to carbon emissions in Australia, we suggest that direct measures to reduce carbon by putting constraints on the energy consumption would pose significant economic costs for the Australian economy.

Essays on Finnish Economic Growth and Productivity, 1860-2005

This study examines Finnish economic growth. The key driver of economic growth was productivity. And the major engine of productivity growth was technology, especially the general purpose technologies (GPTs) electricity and ICT. A new GPT builds on previous knowledge, yet often in an uncertain, punctuated, fashion. Economic history, as well as the Finnish data analyzed in this study, teaches that growth is not a smooth process but is subject to episodes of sharp acceleration and deceleration which are associated with the arrival, diffusion and exhaustion of new general purpose technologies. These are technologies that affect the whole economy by transforming both household life and the ways in which firms conduct business. The findings of previous research, that Finnish economic growth exhibited late industrialisation and significant structural changes were corroborated by this study. Yet, it was not solely a story of manufacturing and structural change was more the effect of than the cause for economic growth. We offered an empirical resolution to the Artto-Pohjola paradox as we showed that a high rate of return on capital was combined with low capital productivity growth. This result is important in understanding Finnish economic growth 1975-90. The main contribution of this thesis was the growth accounting results on the impact of ICT on growth and productivity, as well as the comparison of electricity and ICT. It was shown that ICT s contribution to GDP growth was almost twice as large as electricity s contribution over comparable periods of time. Finland has thus been far more successful as an ICT producer than a producer of electricity. Unfortunately in the use of ICT the results were still more modest than for electricity. During the end of the period considered in this thesis, Finland switched from resource-based to ICT-based growth. However, given the large dependency on the ICT-producing sector, the ongoing outsourcing of ICT production to low wage countries provides a threat to productivity performance in the future. For a developed country only change is constant and history teaches us that it is likely that Finland is obliged to reorganize its economy once again in the digital era.

A Spatial Planning Support System for Managing Bangalore's Urban Sprawl

Urban sprawl is the outgrowth along the periphery of cities and along highways. Although an accurate definition of urban sprawl may be debated, a consensus is that urban sprawl is characterized by an unplanned and uneven pattern of growth, driven by multitude of processes and leading to inefficient resource utilization. Urbanization in India has never been as rapid as it is in recent times. As one of the fastest growing economies in the world, India faces stiff challenges in managing the urban sprawl, while ensuring effective delivery of basic services in urban areas. The urban areas contribute significantly to the national economy (more than 50% of GDP), while facing critical challenges in accessing basic services and necessary infrastructure, both social and economic. The overall rise in the population of the urban poor or the increase in travel times due to congestion along road networks are indicators of the effectiveness of planning and governance in assessing and catering for this demand. Agencies of governance at all levels: local bodies, state government and federal government, are facing the brunt of this rapid urban growth. It is imperative for planning and governance to facilitate, augment and service the requisite infrastructure over time systematically. Provision of infrastructure and assurance of the delivery of basic services cannot happen overnight and hence planning has to facilitate forecasting and service provision with appropriate financial mechanisms.

A playful side to twelfth-century mathematics

As editors of the book Lilavati's Daughters: The Women Scientists of India, reviewed by Asha Gopinathan (Nature 460, 1082; 2009), we would like to elaborate on the background to its title. Lilavati was a mathematical treatise of the twelfth century, composed by the mathematician and astronomer Bhaskaracharya (1114–85) — also known as Bhaskara II — who was a teacher of repute and author of several other texts. The name Lilavati, which literally means 'playful', is a surprising title for an early scientific book. Some of the mathematical problems posed in the book are in verse form, and are addressed to a girl, the eponymous Lilavati. However, there is little real evidence concerning Lilavati's historicity. Tradition holds that she was Bhaskaracharya's daughter and that he wrote the treatise to console her after an accident that left her unable to marry. But this could be a later interpolation, as the idea was first mentioned in a Persian commentary. An alternative view has it that Lilavati was married at an inauspicious time and was widowed shortly afterwards. Other sources have implied that Lilavati was Bhaskaracharya's wife, or even one of his students — raising the possibility that women in parts of the Indian subcontinent could have participated in higher education as early as eight centuries ago. However, given that Bhaskara was a poet and pedagogue, it is also possible that he chose to address his mathematical problems to a doe-eyed girl simply as a whimsical and charming literary device.

Efficient probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure considering wind perturbation

The integration of stochastic wind power has accentuated a challenge for power system stability assessment. Since the power system is a time-variant system under wind generation fluctuations, pure time-domain simulations are difficult to provide real-time stability assessment. As a result, the worst-case scenario is simulated to give a very conservative assessment of system transient stability. In this study, a probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure method is proposed to provide a less conservative contingency analysis which covers 5-min wind fluctuations and a successive fault. This probabilistic approach would estimate the transfer limit of a critical line for a given fault with stochastic wind generation and active control devices in a multi-machine system. This approach achieves a lower computation cost and improved accuracy using a new stability measure and polynomial interpolation, and is feasible for online contingency analysis.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Shortcomings of discontinuous-pressure finite element methods on a class of transient problems

Past studies that have compared LBB stable discontinuous- and continuous-pressure finite element formulations on a variety of problems have concluded that both methods yield Solutions of comparable accuracy, and that the choice of interpolation is dictated by which of the two is more efficient. In this work, we show that using discontinuous-pressure interpolations can yield inaccurate solutions at large times on a class of transient problems, while the continuous-pressure formulation yields solutions that are in good agreement with the analytical Solution.

A Legendre spectral element model for sloshing and acoustic analysis in nearly incompressible fluids

A new spectral finite element formulation is presented for modeling the sloshing and the acoustic waves in nearly incompressible fluids. The formulation makes use of the Legendre polynomials in deriving the finite element interpolation shape functions in the Lagrangian frame of reference. The formulated element uses Gauss-Lobatto-Legendre quadrature scheme for integrating the volumetric stiffness and the mass matrices while the conventional Gauss-Legendre quadrature scheme is used on the rotational stiffness matrix to completely eliminate the zero energy modes, which are normally associated with the Lagrangian FE formulation. The numerical performance of the spectral element formulated here is examined by doing the inf-sup test oil a standard rectangular rigid tank partially filled with liquid The eigenvalues obtained from the formulated spectral element are compared with the conventional equally spaced node locations of the h-type Lagrangian finite element and the predicted results show that these spectral elements are more accurate and give superior convergence The efficiency and robustness of the formulated elements are demonstrated by solving few standard problems involving free vibration and dynamic response analysis with undistorted and distorted spectral elements. and the obtained results are compared with available results in the published literature (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

Kernels for large margin time-series classification

In this paper we propose a novel family of kernels for multivariate time-series classification problems. Each time-series is approximated by a linear combination of piecewise polynomial functions in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space by a novel kernel interpolation technique. Using the associated kernel function a large margin classification formulation is proposed which can discriminate between two classes. The formulation leads to kernels, between two multivariate time-series, which can be efficiently computed. The kernels have been successfully applied to writer independent handwritten character recognition.

Intonation of Finnish Verbs

A production experiment investigated the tonal shape of Finnish finite verbs in transitive sentences without narrow focus. Traditional descriptions of Finnish stating that non- focused finite verbs do not receive accents were only partly supported. Verbs were found to have a consistently smaller pitch range than words in other word classes, but their pitch contours were neither flat nor explainable by pure interpolation.

Consumption in Rural Bangladesh : Households, Lifestyles, and Identities

Bangladesh, often better known to the outside world as a country of natural calamities, is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Despite rapid urbanization, more than 75% of the people still live in rural areas. The density of the rural population is also one of the highest in the world. Being a poor and low-income country, its main challenge is to eradicate poverty through increasing equitable income. Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has experienced many ups and downs, but over the past three decades, its gross domestic product (GDP) has grown at an impressive rate. Consequently, the country s economy is developing and the country has outperformed many low-income countries in terms of several social indicators. Bangladesh has achieved the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary school enrollment. A sharp decline in child and infant mortality rates, increased per capita income, and improved food security have placed Bangladesh on the track to achieving in the near future the status of a middle-income country. All these developments have influenced the consumption pattern of the country. This study explores the consumption scenario of rural Bangladesh, its changing consumption patterns, the relationship between technology and consumption in rural Bangladesh, cultural consumption in rural Bangladesh, and the myriad reasons why consumers nevertheless feel compelled to consume chemically treated foods. Data were collected in two phases in the summers of 2006 and 2008. In 2006, the empirical data were collected from the following three sources: interviews with consumers, producers/sellers, and doctors and pharmacists; observations of sellers/producers; and reviews of articles published in the national English and Bengali (the national language of Bangladesh) daily newspapers. A total of 110 consumers, 25 sellers/producers, 7 doctors, and 7 pharmacists were interviewed and observed. In 2008, data were collected through semi-structured in-depth qualitative interviews, ethnography, and unstructured conversations substantiated by secondary sources and photographs; the total number of persons interviewed was 22. -- Data were also collected on the consumption of food, clothing, housing, education, medical facilities, marriage and dowry, the division of labor, household decision making, different festivals such as Eid (for Muslims), the Bengali New Year, and Durga puja (for Hindus), and leisure. Qualitative methods were applied to the data analysis and were supported by secondary quantitative data. The findings of this study suggest that the consumption patterns of rural Bangladeshis are changing over time along with economic and social development, and that technology has rendered aspects of daily life more convenient. This study identified the perceptions and experiences of rural people regarding technologies in use and explored how culture is associated with consumption. This study identified the reasons behind the use of hazardous chemicals (e.g. calcium carbide, sodium cyclamate, cyanide and formalin, etc.) in foods as well as the extent to which food producers/sellers used such chemicals. In addition, this study assessed consumer perceptions of and attitudes toward these contaminated food items and explored how adulterated foods and food stuffs affect consumer health. This study also showed that consumers were aware that various foods and food stuffs contained hazardous chemicals, and that these adulterated foods and food stuffs were harmful to their health.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.