Theory and empirics of Markusen type multinationals

Research on multinational firms’ activity has been conducted widely since late 1980s. The literature is differentiated into three types: horizontal FDI, vertical FDI, and three-country FDI, represented by export platform FDI. There are other methods of differentiation of the literature by approach, for example, the pure theory approach represented by Krugman and Melitz and the numerical simulation approach represented by Markusen. This paper surveys Markusen type literature by firm type. There is little literature focused on intermediate goods trade, although intermediate goods trade is considered to be strongly related to the production patterns of MNEs. In this paper, we introduce a model to explicitly treat intermediate goods trade and present simulation analysis for empirical estimation.

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? : simulation analysis based on an extended knowledge-capital model

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract FDI, this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilizing an extended version of the knowledge-capital model. With a special focus on the effects of FTAs/EPAs between market countries and developing countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (1) Although FTA/EPA generally ends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labor becomes higher as the size of the country declines; (2) Because the additional implementation of cost-saving policies to reduce firm-type/trade-link specific fixed costs ends to depreciate the price of skilled labor by saving its input, a developing country, which is extremely scarce in skilled labor, is better off avoiding the additional option; (3) If a country hopes to enjoy larger welfare gains with EPA, efforts to increase skilled labor in the country, such as investing in education, may be beneficial.

What best transfers knowledge? : capital, goods, and innovative labor in East Asia

This paper compares three knowledge carriers—trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and inventors—as knowledge mediums, and investigates their effects on knowledge flow in East Asia from 1996 to 2010. Using patent citations as a proxy for knowledge flow, this paper shows that FDI and inventor mobility have positive effects on increasing patent citations in East Asia when the technological portfolios of two countries are less similar. While trade shows statistical significance, the effect is inconsistent according to the regression models.

La elección entre tipos de inversión directa en el exterior: evidencia empírica de las empresas españolas en China

Una de las cuestiones que más interés despierta entre los investigadores del campo de la internacionalización empresarial es la selección de la estrategia de entrada en un país extranjero. Actualmente, China es uno de los destinos que está cobrando una mayor relevancia en la expansión internacional de muchas empresas. En ese contexto, este trabajo examina la influencia de diversos factores empresariales sobre el nivel de compromiso asumido por las compañías españolas que han entrado en China a través de inversiones directas.

Russia in Crisis: Year One. OSW Report, January 2010

Economic conditions which had favoured Russia’s development suddenly changed in mid-2008. The Russian economy was hit, on the one hand, by a drastic slump in oil prices (which fell from nearly US$150 to US$50 between July 2008 and January 2009), and on the other by the outflow of investors (a net of US$130 billion of capital left Russia in the fourth quarter of 2008). Within several months, the financial crisis became an economic crisis affecting the entire economy. The financial reserves accumulated in times of prosperity (more than US$162 billion in the stabilisation funds and nearly US$598 billion in the currency and gold reserve) alleviated the negative impact of the crisis, although this failed to prevent the deep declines in macroeconomic indicators. Russia is one of the states most severely affected by the crisis. In the first half of 2009, its GDP fell by 10.4% compared to the same period in the previous year, while industrial production dropped by nearly 15%, and a decrease in investments of over 18% was reported. The poor economic performance has strongly affected the Russian budget, which reported a deficit for the first time in ten years in 2009. During the first year of the crisis (August 2008 – September 2009), Russia’s financial reserves were seriously reduced as a result of the government’s anti-crisis policy and interventions from the central bank: the reserve fund decreased by nearly 45% to US$76 billion, and the central bank’s reserves shrunk by nearly US$200 billion to US$409 billion. Meanwhile, however, the money in the National Welfare Fund, which had been intended almost entirely to subsidise the Pensions Fund between 2010 and 2015, rose almost three-fold (to US$90 billion). According to government forecasts, the money from the reserve fund is also supposed to be spent fully in 2010. The financial crisis has triggered a dynamic outflow of capital from the Russian market. So-called speculative capital was the first to demonstrate the lack of confidence in the Russian market. In the first half of 2009, the growth rate of long-term investments also decreased noticeably, although no spectacular withdrawal of direct investments from Russia has been observed. The economic crisis has also halted the foreign expansion of Russian private capital, while state-owned capital strengthened its position as an investor. Russia’s raw materials companies continue to be the main category of foreign investors; however, new technologies are gaining prominence as the second main direction of Russian investments.

Is Vietnam the Right Choice for Foreign Investment?: The Case of the European Union’s Slipping Opportunity. ACES Working Papers, 2012

This analysis is broken into three interdependent sections: First, an analysis of the restrictions placed on foreign direct investment in Vietnam captures the current freedoms and inhibitors of investment in Vietnam. Foreign direct investment is defined by the UN as an investment made to acquire a lasting interest in or effective control over an enterprise operating outside of the economy of the investor. Second, a cursory look at the macroeconomic risks, to which investment dollars are susceptible, will paint a realistic portrait of return of foreign investment. Finally, this paper will examine the current, and historical, trade relationship between Vietnam and the European Union, in order to convey that the opportunity for investment in Vietnam remains to be an opportunity for Europe’s developed economies.

Foreign and domestic investment:regional development or crowding out?

This paper tests, at the regional and industry level, the extent to which domestic investment is stimulated or crowded out by inward foreign direct investment. The paper develops a model of domestic investment, based on standard models drawn from macroeconomics and industrial economics. The paper then goes on to show that, at a general level, the 'development' or agglomeration hypothesis is confirmed that domestic investment is indeed stimulated by inward investment. However, there is also evidence that, in certain regions, inward investment has crowded out domestic investment. The implications of this from the perspective of regional policy are briefly discussed.

Foreign manufacturing, regional agglomeration and technical efficiency in UK industries: a stochastic production frontier approach

The paper examines howfar foreign manufacturing investment in UK industries, together with the spatial agglomeration of those industries, affect technical efficiency. The paper links research on the estimation of technical efficiency,with those literatures demonstrating the economies associated with foreign direct investment and spatial agglomeration. The methodology involves estimation of a stochastic production frontier with random components associated with industry technical inefficiency, and a standard error. The paper also explores whether the degree of foreign involvement has a greater impact on technical efficiency where the domestic industry sector is characterized by comparatively high productivity and spatial agglomeration. The policy implications of the analysis are discussed.

Industrial performance, agglomeration, and foreign manufacturing investment in the UK

This paper examines the relationship between the comparative advantage of UK industries, and new inward investment into these industries. The paper demonstrates that the extent of foreign manufacturing investment in an industry, and the spatial agglomeration of that industry, are significant determinants of industry comparative advantage, thus providing evidence of agglomeration benefits to both domestic and foreign firms. The paper then shows that industry comparative advantage itself, toegther with a series of industry specific characteristics, are important determinants of new foreigh manufacturing investment, thus providing evidence of the dynamic benefits of foreign direct investment in the UK economy.

Who gains from whom? Spillovers, competition and technology sourcing in the foreign-owned sector of UK manufacturing

There is a growing literature explaining foreign direct investment flows in terms of 'technology sourcing', whereby multinational firms invest in certain locations not to exploit their firm-specific assets in the host environment, but to access technology that is generated by host country firms. However, it is far from clear whether the literature has found significant evidence of such activity beyond a few isolated examples. This paper extends this work by allowing for the possibility of multinational enterprises (MNEs) sourcing technology not only from host country firms but also from each other within a host economy. The paper demonstrates that MNEs in the UK do indeed appropriate spillovers both from indigenous firms and from other foreign investors, but that there are also significant competition effects that act to reduce productivity in certain industries. The paper also explores which countries' affiliates gain most from technology sourcing in the UK, and which generate the greatest spillovers within the foreign-owned sector. © Scottish Economic Society 2005.

Technology transfer to China:a study of strategy in 20 EU industrial companies

Foreign direct investment has been important in China's economic development since the early 1980s. In recent years, the volume of inward FDI into China, according to some estimates, has been second only to that into the USA. The Chinese government has emphasised the need for FDI to be coupled with the transfer of more advanced technologies to China. For foreign companies, technology transfer raises the risk of losing their technology based competitive advantage to potential competitor firms. This risk may be exacerbated by insufficient legal protection of intellectual property rights in China. After briefly reviewing the development of Chinese official policy on technology transfer, this paper considers the strategy adopted by EU companies regarding the transfer of technology; in particular in advanced technology sectors. The research on which the paper is based included an analysis of information gathered from 20 leading EU companies with investments in China and operating in high-technology sectors. Information was gathered from senior company managers based in both China and Europe during the second half of 1998. The main findings include a measure of reluctance on the part of EU companies to transfer their core technologies to China and to base R&D capability there. At the same time, the companies appear aware that this policy may be unsustainable in the longer-term in the face of Chinese official policy and a desire to expand their operations in China. While they attempt to protect their existing technological knowledge, most of them accept that there will be technology "leakage" and therefore the most effective strategy is to maintain their technological lead through R&D.

Multinational firms, productivity and employment

Over the last three decades foreign direct investment (FDI) has become the most visible driver of globalisation. It has grown faster than world output and international trade and now reports world annual flows exceeding 1,000 billion US dollars. In this period, Germany has undergone significant changes in order to play an important role in the globalisation process. Apart from being a member state of the European Union (EU) whose key feature is the free flow of trade, investment and labour, the re-unification of East and West Germany in 1990 has been a significant development. This in effect has meant that East Germany as well as other Eastern European nations opened up to foreign investment for the first time. In this period, Germany has attracted in excess of 10 per cent of inward FDI into the EU and invested around 15 per cent of all FDI in the EU. This thesis explores empirically the potential impact of FDI on firms operating in and investing from Germany over a ten year period. Using panel data at the firm-level it concentrates on three areas relating to FDI. Firstly, it considers whether foreign-owned firms are more productive than German multinational firms and German non-multinational firms. Secondly, the thesis considers the impact of German investments abroad on domestic productivity. Finally, employment effects emanating from outward high-tech FDI are estimated for the leading OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, namely Germany, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Japan. The findings of the first analysis indicate that while foreign-owned firms are generally more productive than German non-multinationals, there is no clear cut difference between foreign-owned firms and German multinationals. These differences would not have been uncovered, had the analysis compared foreign firms with all domestic firms. Equally, location within Germany is also important, as this productivity gap is more pronounced for firms which are located in the Eastern states. The findings of the second analysis suggest that engaging in outward FDI has an overall positive effect on the parent firm's productivity at home. Finally, results of the third analysis show that an expansion of high-tech offshoring activities by OECD multinationals (MNEs) is not associated with any reduction in employment at home.

The relationship between internationalisation and innovation:internationalisation strategies, foreign firms', patenting behaviour and FDI spillovers

This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of the relationships between internationalisation and innovation. Based on large comprehensive firm level data from China, this thesis comprises of three empirical chapters examining internationalisation from different aspects. Specifically, the first empirical work studies how firms internationalise. It links the choice of firms’ internationalisation strategies with firm characteristics. Additionally, it re-examines the stepwise internationalisation theory by distinguishing different foreign direct investment (FDI) motives. It proposes two pecking orders of firm performance in internationalisation strategies. The second empirical study investigates what kind of innovation activities internationalised firms do. It analyses the factors that drive foreign firms to patent in an emerging host country context. It stresses the importance of the intellectual property rights protection aspect of business environment at regional level in promoting patents, the role of industry dependence on external finance in shaping foreign firms’ patenting behaviour, as well as links foreign firms’ patent production with FDI motivation. The third empirical research examines the effect of internationalisation by examining the links between inward FDI and domestic innovation in a host country. It specifically examines technology spillovers from inward FDI through the direct lens of innovation (captured by grant patents), instead of adopting the indirect productivity approach widely employed by the literature. Distinguishing different types of innovation, it provides direct evidence of heterogeneous innovation spillovers from FDI.

Essays on risk aversion, diversification and non -participation

My dissertation consists of three essays. The central theme of these essays is the psychological factors and biases that affect the portfolio allocation decision. The first essay entitled, “Are women more risk-averse than men?” examines the gender difference in risk aversion as revealed by actual investment choices. Using a sample that controls for biases in the level of education and finance knowledge, there is evidence that when individuals have the same level of education, irrespective of their knowledge of finance, women are no more risk-averse than their male counterparts. However, the gender-risk aversion relation is also a function of age, income, wealth, marital status, race/ethnicity and the number of children in the household. The second essay entitled, “Can diversification be learned ?” investigates if investors who have superior investment knowledge are more likely to actively seek diversification benefits and are less prone to allocation biases. Results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that knowledge of finance increases the likelihood that an investor will efficiently allocate his direct investments across the major asset classes; invest in foreign assets; and hold a diversified equity portfolio. However, there is no evidence that investors who are more financially sophisticated make superior allocation decisions in their retirement savings. The final essay entitled, “The demographics of non-participation ”, examines the factors that affect the decision not to hold stocks. The results of probit regression models indicate that when individuals are highly educated, the decision to not participate in the stock market is less related to demographic factors. In particular, when individuals have attained at least a college degree and have advanced knowledge of finance, they are significantly more likely to invest in equities either directly or indirectly through mutual funds or their retirement savings. There is also evidence that the decision not to hold stocks is motivated by short-term market expectations and the most recent investment experience. The findings of these essays should increase the body of research that seeks to reconcile what investors actually do (positive theory) with what traditional theories of finance predict that investors should do (normative theory).

Essays on Risk Aversion, Diversification and Non-Participation

My dissertation consists of three essays. The central theme of these essays is the psychological factors and biases that affect the portfolio allocation decision. The first essay entitled, “Are women more risk-averse than men?” examines the gender difference in risk aversion as revealed by actual investment choices. Using a sample that controls for biases in the level of education and finance knowledge, there is evidence that when individuals have the same level of education, irrespective of their knowledge of finance, women are no more risk-averse than their male counterparts. However, the gender-risk aversion relation is also a function of age, income, wealth, marital status, race/ethnicity and the number of children in the household. The second essay entitled, “Can diversification be learned?” investigates if investors who have superior investment knowledge are more likely to actively seek diversification benefits and are less prone to allocation biases. Results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that knowledge of finance increases the likelihood that an investor will efficiently allocate his direct investments across the major asset classes; invest in foreign assets; and hold a diversified equity portfolio. However, there is no evidence that investors who are more financially sophisticated make superior allocation decisions in their retirement savings. The final essay entitled, “The demographics of non-participation”, examines the factors that affect the decision not to hold stocks. The results of probit regression models indicate that when individuals are highly educated, the decision to not participate in the stock market is less related to demographic factors. In particular, when individuals have attained at least a college degree and have advanced knowledge of finance, they are significantly more likely to invest in equities either directly or indirectly through mutual funds or their retirement savings. There is also evidence that the decision not to hold stocks is motivated by short-term market expectations and the most recent investment experience. The findings of these essays should increase the body of research that seeks to reconcile what investors actually do (positive theory) with what traditional theories of finance predict that investors should do (normative theory).