1209-006 Waterloo Creek Watershed Final Report

Waterloo Creek Watershed is a 30,610 acre area that straddles the Iowa and Minnesota border. The lower 43% of the watershed is in Iowa. Bee and Duck Creeks in Minnesota flow into Waterloo Creek in Iowa. Designated as a primary contact recreational stream as well as a high-quality, cold water stream in Iowa, Waterloo Creek is a popular destination for anglers and other nature enthusiasts. The stream was on the Iowa DNR’s “Impaired Waters List” in 2008 and 2010 for Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria. Samples collected in 2010 and 2011 showed higher levels of E. coli. at sites with cattle in close proximity to the stream and were generally greater after high rainfall events. Other factors affecting water quality are high turbidity levels and frequent flooding. There is a deficiency in upland land treatment and an abundance of conventional tillage which increases the amount of erosion and potential for surface runoff to carry sediment to the stream. A comprehensive watershed assessment and management plan have been completed for the watershed which identify the causes of and solutions to water quality impairments. The goals of this project are to 1) develop a formal working relationship between technical staff in Iowa and Minnesota, 2) identify specific locations for Best Management Practice (BMP) implementation, 3) reduce sediment loading to Waterloo Creek to improve aquatic habitat and decrease bacteria delivery, and 4) reduce flooding potential in the watershed. The following BMPs will be implemented to reach these goals: terraces, grade stabilization structures, pasture management, stream buffers, stream bank stabilization, and agricultural waste structures.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

3D crosshole ERT for aquifer characterization and monitoring of infiltrating river water

The hydrogeological properties and responses of a productive aquifer in northeastern Switzerland are investigated. For this purpose, 3D crosshole electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is used to define the main lithological structures within the aquifer (through static inversion) and to monitor the water infiltration from an adjacent river. During precipitation events and subsequent river flooding, the river water resistivity increases. As a consequence, the electrical characteristics of the infiltrating water can be used as a natural tracer to delineate preferential flow paths and flow velocities. The focus is primarily on the experiment installation, data collection strategy, and the structural characterization of the site and a brief overview of the ERT monitoring results. The monitoring system comprises 18 boreholes each equipped with 10 electrodes straddling the entire thickness of the gravel aquifer. A multi-channel resistivity system programmed to cycle through various four-point electrode configurations of the 180 electrodes in a rolling sequence allows for the measurement of approximately 15,500 apparent resistivity values every 7 h on a continuous basis. The 3D static ERT inversion of data acquired under stable hydrological conditions provides a base model for future time-lapse inversion studies and the means to investigate the resolving capability of our acquisition scheme. In particular, it enables definition of the main lithological structures within the aquifer. The final ERT static model delineates a relatively high-resistivity, low-porosity, intermediate-depth layer throughout the investigated aquifer volume that is consistent with results from well logging and seismic and radar tomography models. The next step will be to define and implement an appropriate time-lapse ERT inversion scheme using the river water as a natural tracer. The main challenge will be to separate the superposed time-varying effects of water table height, temperature, and salinity variations associated with the infiltrating water.

Distribution of events of positive selection and population differentiation in a metabolic pathway: the case of asparagine N-glycosylation

Asparagine N-Glycosylation is one of the most important forms of protein post-translational modification in eukaryotes. This metabolic pathway can be subdivided into two parts: an upstream sub-pathway required for achieving proper folding for most of the proteins synthesized in the secretory pathway, and a downstream sub-pathway required to give variability to trans-membrane proteins, and involved in adaptation to the environment and innate immunity. Here we analyze the nucleotide variability of the genes of this pathway in human populations, identifying which genes show greater population differentiation and which genes show signatures of recent positive selection. We also compare how these signals are distributed between the upstream and the downstream parts of the pathway, with the aim of exploring how forces of population differentiation and positive selection vary among genes involved in the same metabolic pathway but subject to different functional constraints. Our results show that genes in the downstream part of the pathway are more likely to show a signature of population differentiation, while events of positive selection are equally distributed among the two parts of the pathway. Moreover, events of positive selection are frequent on genes that are known to be at bifurcation points, and that are identified as being in key position by a network-level analysis such as MGAT3 and GCS1. These findings indicate that the upstream part of the Asparagine N-Glycosylation pathway has lower diversity among populations, while the downstream part is freer to tolerate diversity among populations. Moreover, the distribution of signatures of population differentiation and positive selection can change between parts of a pathway, especially between parts that are exposed to different functional constraints. Our results support the hypothesis that genes involved in constitutive processes can be expected to show lower population differentiation, while genes involved in traits related to the environment should show higher variability. Taken together, this work broadens our knowledge on how events of population differentiation and of positive selection are distributed among different parts of a metabolic pathway.

Cultural events and tourist development in Catalonia (Spain)

From the point of view of local development cultural tourism events represent an opportunity since they are distributed homogeneously by the Catalan territory and are experiencing a vertiginous growth as a way to differentiate the existing supply. In our study a sample of 264 telephone surveys made to organizers of events in Catalonia has been compiled, with the purpose of characterizing the existing supply, thematic typologies, management models, commercialization inputs and economic impact. The results allow us to characterize events from the point of view of their tourist potential. Finally some recommendations are set out to develop future tourism policies based on events according to product differentiation, seasonality, competitiveness and creativity.

Cultural events as tourism supply in coastal Catalan resorts

During the last three decades, the number of tourism events has been growing in Catalan coastal resorts because of the recover of Catalan cultural traditions, festivals and folklore, and also because of tourism growth. Catalan tourism resorts use events as catalysers for new supply and as a mean to differentiate and singularize themselves from their competitors. The tourism potential of cultural events is undeniable but there are some problems that prevent a more effective impact as economic and regional development agents. This paper reflects some discussions and conclusions obtained from the analysis of 264 valid responses of a survey made to different Catalan event organizers in 2008 and 2009. We describe and characterize cultural event supply in coastal resorts in order to study the events tourism importance, their capacity to generate and spread economic development, and their managerial model. The analysis is made in a geographical basis, comparing the results of the territorial organization of events of the city of Barcelona, coastal and inland municipalities. Finally some considerations about event regional tourism policy and tourism development are discussed.

Improved flooding of broadcast messages using extended multipoint relaying

A common operation in wireless ad hoc networks is the flooding of broadcast messages to establish network topologies and routing tables. The flooding of broadcast messages is, however, a resource consuming process. It might require the retransmission of messages by most network nodes. It is, therefore, very important to optimize this operation. In this paper, we first analyze the multipoint relaying (MPR) flooding mechanism used by the Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR) protocol to distribute topology control (TC) messages among all the system nodes. We then propose a new flooding method, based on the fusion of two key concepts: distance-enabled multipoint relaying and connected dominating set (CDS) flooding. We present experimental simulationsthat show that our approach improves the performance of previous existing proposals.

Prevention and management of potential adverse events during transapical aortic valve replacement.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY: Transapical transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is a new minimally invasive technique with a known risk of unexpected intra-procedural complications. Nevertheless, the clinical results are good and the limited amount of procedural adverse events confirms the usefulness of a synergistic surgical/anesthesiological management in case of unexpected emergencies. METHODS: A review was made of the authors' four-year database and other available literature to identify major and minor intra-procedural complications occurring during transapical TAVR procedures. All implants were performed under general anesthesia with a balloon-expandable Edwards Sapien stent-valve, and followed international guidelines on indications and techniques. RESULTS: Procedural success rates ranged between 94% and 100%. Life-threatening apical bleeding occurred very rarely (0-5%), and its incidence decreased after the first series of implants. Stent-valve embolization was also rare, with a global incidence ranging from 0-2%, with evidence of improvement after the learning curve. Rates of valve malpositioning ranged from 0% to < 3%, whereas the risk of coronary obstruction ranged from 0% to 3.5%. Aortic root rupture and dissection were dramatic events reported in 0-2% of transapical cases. Stent-valve malfunction was rarely reported (1-2%), whereas the valve-in-valve bailout procedure for malpositioning, malfunctioning or severe paravalvular leak was reported in about 1.0-3.5% of cases. Sudden hemodynamic management and bailout procedures such as valve-in-valve rescue or cannulation for cardiopulmonary bypass were more effective when planned during the preoperative phase. CONCLUSION: Despite attempts to avoid pitfalls, complications during transapical aortic valve procedures still occur. Preoperative strategic planning, including hemodynamic status management, alternative cannulation sites and bailout procedures, are highly recommended, particularly during the learning curve of this technique.

Systematic surgical closure of patent foramen ovale in selected patients with cerebrovascular events due to paradoxical embolism. Early results of a preliminary study.

OBJECTIVE: To define therapeutic strategy for management of patients with ischemic stroke due to a high probability of paradoxical embolism through a Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO). METHODS: Since 1988 all consecutive patients with cerebrovascular events and PFO from the Stroke Registry of our population-based primary-care center are prospectively studied and followed. Since 1992, among 118 patients with cryptogenic embolic brain infarct or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and PFO, 32 consecutive patients younger than 60 years who presented at least two of the following criteria were admitted for surgery: history of Valsalva strain before stroke (11); multiple clinical events (13); multiple infarcts on brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) (15); atrial septal aneurysm (ASA) (16); large right-to-left shunt (> 50 microbubbles) (12). RESULTS: Operative time 135' +/- 33'. CPB time 34' +/- 14'. Aortic crossclamping time 16' +/- 6'. Post-operative bleeding 485 +/- 170 ml. No homologous blood transfusion required. No neurological, cardiac or renal complications. All patients were followed-up corresponding to a cumulative time of 601 patient-months. This revealed no recurrent vascular events nor silent new brain lesions on brain MRI. Systematic simultaneous contrast Trans Esophageal Echocardiography (TEE)-Trans Cranial Doppler showed a small residual interatrial shunt in two patients. CONCLUSION: Surgical closure of a patent foramen ovale can be accomplished with very low morbidity and reduce efficiently the risk of stroke recurrence. It seems to be the option of choice in selected patients with a higher (> 1.5%/year) risk of stroke recurrence.

Association of electrocardiogram abnormalities and incident heart failure events.

Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS: We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS: At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Significant decrease in in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events in Swiss STEMI patients between 2000 and December 2007.

To evaluate the in-hospital outcome of STEMI (ST elevation myocardial infarction) patients admitted to Swiss hospitals between 2000 and December 2007, and to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality and major cardiac events. Data from the Swiss national registry AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial Infarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland) were used. All patients admitted between January 2000 and December 2007 with STEMI or a new LBBB (left bundle branch block) were included in the registry. We studied 12 026 STEMI patients admitted to 68 hospitals. The mean age was 64 +/- 13 years and 73% of the patients were male. Incidence of in-hospital death was 7.6% in 2000 and 6% in 2007. Reinfarction fell from 3.7% in 2000 to 0.9% in 2007. Thrombolysis decreased from 40.2% in 2000 to 2% in 2007. Clinical predictors of mortality were: age >65 years, Killips class III or IV, diabetes, Q wave myocardial infarction (at presentation). Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) had lower mortality and reinfarction rates (3.9% versus 11.2% and 1.1% versus 3.1% respectively, p <0.001) over time, although their numbers increased from 43% in 2000 to 85% in 2007. Patients admitted to hospitals with PCI facilities had lower mortality than patients hospitalised in hospitals without it, but the demographic characteristics differ widely between the two groups. Both in-hospital mortality and reinfarction decreased significantly over the time, parallel to an increased number of PCI. PCI was also the strongest predictor of survival. In-hospital mortality and reinfarction rate have decreased significantly in Swiss STEMI patients in the last seven years, parallel to a significant increase in the number of percutaneous coronary interventions in addition to medical therapy. Outcome is not related to the site of admission but to PCI access.

Vaccines safety; effect of supervision or SMS on reporting rates of adverse events following immunization (AEFI) with meningitis vaccine (MenAfriVac?): a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: To ensure vaccines safety, given the weaknesses of the national pharmacovigilance system in Cameroon, there is a need to identify effective interventions that can contribute to improving AEFI reporting. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of: (i) sending weekly SMS, or (ii) weekly supervisory visits on AEFI reporting rate during a meningitis immunization campaign conducted in Cameroon in 2012 using the meningitis A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac?). METHODS: Health facilities that met the inclusion criteria were randomly assigned to receive: (i) a weekly standardized SMS, (ii) a weekly standardized supervisory visits or (iii) no intervention. The primary outcome was the reported AEFI incidence rate from week 5 to 8 after the immunization campaign. Poisson regression model was used to estimate the effect of interventions after adjusting for health region, type of health facility, type and position of health workers as well as the cumulative number of AEFI reported from weeks 1 to 4. RESULTS: A total of 348 (77.2%) of 451 health facility were included, and 116 assigned to each of three groups. The incidence rate of reported AEFI per 100 health facility per week was 20.0 (15.9-24.1) in the SMS group, 40.2 (34.4-46.0) in supervision group and 13.6 (10.1-16.9) in the control group. Supervision led to a significant increase of AEFI reporting rate compared to SMS [adjusted RR=2.1 (1.6-2.7); p<0.001] and control [RR=2.8(2.1-3.7); p<0.001)] groups. The effect of SMS led to some increase in AEFI reporting rate compared to the control group, but the difference was not statistically significant [RR=1.4(0.8-1.6); p=0.07)]. CONCLUSION: Supervision was more effective than SMS or routine surveillance in improving AEFI reporting rate. It should be part of any AEFI surveillance system. SMS could be useful in improving AEFI reporting rates but strategies need to be found to improve its effectiveness, and thus maximize its benefits.

Vorapaxar in the secondary prevention of atherothrombotic events.

BACKGROUND: Thrombin potently activates platelets through the protease-activated receptor PAR-1. Vorapaxar is a novel antiplatelet agent that selectively inhibits the cellular actions of thrombin through antagonism of PAR-1. METHODS: We randomly assigned 26,449 patients who had a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral arterial disease to receive vorapaxar (2.5 mg daily) or matching placebo and followed them for a median of 30 months. The primary efficacy end point was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. After 2 years, the data and safety monitoring board recommended discontinuation of the study treatment in patients with a history of stroke owing to the risk of intracranial hemorrhage. RESULTS: At 3 years, the primary end point had occurred in 1028 patients (9.3%) in the vorapaxar group and in 1176 patients (10.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for the vorapaxar group, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001). Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or recurrent ischemia leading to revascularization occurred in 1259 patients (11.2%) in the vorapaxar group and 1417 patients (12.4%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.001). Moderate or severe bleeding occurred in 4.2% of patients who received vorapaxar and 2.5% of those who received placebo (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.43 to 1.93; P<0.001). There was an increase in the rate of intracranial hemorrhage in the vorapaxar group (1.0%, vs. 0.5% in the placebo group; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inhibition of PAR-1 with vorapaxar reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or ischemic events in patients with stable atherosclerosis who were receiving standard therapy. However, it increased the risk of moderate or severe bleeding, including intracranial hemorrhage. (Funded by Merck; TRA 2P-TIMI 50 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00526474.).