889 resultados para Financial econometrics


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The unique characteristics of credit unions reduces the information asymmetry that is prevalent in credit making decisions, enabling them to provide loans where other financial institutions cannot. This makes them a potential tool in the fight against financial exclusion. Yet, the UK credit union movement is not regarded as being successful, even though there is evidence of much financial exclusion. This study is cross sectional in form, and evaluates characteristics that may contribute to the success of the UK credit union movement at national and regional level, in 2000. The findings are used to consider the impact of recent regulatory changes on the movement. The key findings are that there is a significant relationship between the success of a credit union, its size and the deprivation of the ward from which it sources its members. More specifically, larger credit unions and those located in more affluent wards, are more successful. Affiliation to the Irish League of Credit Unions and having a common bond of occupation, are also found to be contributing factors to credit union success. These results are taken as providing support for the recent changes implemented by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), which is likely to result in the emergence of larger credit unions (through mergers), run by appropriately qualified persons, serving a more mixed-income membership base. It is, however, noted that the history of the UK movement is one of missed opportunities and only time will tell whether credit unions have the wherewithal to accept current opportunities.

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The growth of US credit unions during the 1990s is investigated empirically, using univariate and multivariate cross sectional and panel estimation techniques. Univariate tests of the law of proportionate effect suggest that in general large credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts. On average credit unions with above-average growth in one period tended to experience below-average growth in the next. Smaller credit unions tended to have more variable growth than large ones. While credit unions share a common co-operative philosophy, they differ in terms of age profile, scope for membership growth, charter type and financial structure and performance. In estimations of a multivariate growth model, most of these characteristics are found to have a significant influence on the size-growth relationship. While large state chartered credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts, the reverse was true for federally chartered credit unions. In general, if larger credit unions grew faster than smaller ones, they tended to do so for specific reasons: because their charters were less restrictive, because they were more efficient, or because they had a financial structure that was more conducive to growth. Therefore credit union growth was not `random', but highly systematic.

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Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

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This paper is a contribution to the literature on the explanatory power and calibration of heterogeneous asset pricing models. We set out a new stochastic market-fraction asset pricing model of fundamentalists and trend followers under a market maker. Our model explains key features of financial market behaviour such as market dominance, convergence to the fundamental price and under- and over-reaction. We use the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system to characterize these features and statistical properties, including convergence of the limiting distribution and autocorrelation structure. We confirm these properties using Monte Carlo simulations.

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Transparency in nonprofit sector and foundations, as an element to enhance the confidence of stakeholders in the organization, is a fact shown by several studies in recent decades. Transparency can be considered in various fields and through different channels. In our study we focused on the analysis of the organizational and economic transparency of foundations, shown through the voluntary information on their Website. We review the theoretical previous studies published to put to the foundations within the framework of the social economy. This theoretical framework has focused on accountability that make foundations in relation to its social function and its management, especially since the most recent focus of information transparency across the Website.In this theoretical framework was made an index to quantify the voluntary information which is shown on its website. This index has been developed ad hoc for this study and applied to a group of large corporate foundations.With the application of these data are obtained two kind of results, to a descriptive level and to a inferential level.We analyzed the statistical correlation between economic transparency and organizational transparency offered in the Website through quantified variables by a multiple linear regression. This empirical analysis allows us to draw conclusions about the level of transparency offered by these organizations in relation to their organizational and financial information, as well as explain the relation between them.

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The government has been actively encouraging the development of credit unions to help the financially excluded. However, rather than stimulating credit union development, government grants can erode the community self-help ethos on which credit unions are founded. Policies should be formulated which encourage credit union development based on a membership drawn from a cross-section of the population.