Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Radiation-induced defects in calcium fluoride and their influence on material properties under 193 nm laser irradiation

Calcium fluoride (CaF2) is one of the key lens materials in deep-ultraviolet microlithography because of its transparency at 193 nm and its nearly perfect optical isotropy. Its physical and chemical properties make it applicable for lens fabrication. The key feature of CaF2 is its extreme laser stability. rnAfter exposing CaF2 to 193 nm laser irradiation at high fluences, a loss in optical performance is observed, which is related to radiation-induced defect structures in the material. The initial rapid damage process is well understood as the formation of radiation-induced point defects, however, after a long irradiation time of up to 2 months, permanent damage of the crystals is observed. Based on experimental results, these permanent radiation-induced defect structures are identified as metallic Ca colloids.rnThe properties of point defects in CaF2 and their stabilization in the crystal bulk are calculated with density functional theory (DFT). Because the stabilization of the point defects and the formation of metallic Ca colloids are diffusion-driven processes, the diffusion coefficients for the vacancy (F center) and the interstitial (H center) in CaF2 are determined with the nudged elastic band method. The optical properties of Ca colloids in CaF2 are obtained from Mie-theory, and their formation energy is determined.rnBased on experimental observations and the theoretical description of radiation-induced point defects and defect structures, a diffusion-based model for laser-induced material damage in CaF2 is proposed, which also includes a mechanism for annealing of laser damage. rn

Prediction of new crystal structures under extreme conditions

One of the most important challenges in chemistry and material science is the connection between the contents of a compound and its chemical and physical properties. In solids, these are greatly influenced by the crystal structure.rnrnThe prediction of hitherto unknown crystal structures with regard to external conditions like pressure and temperature is therefore one of the most important goals to achieve in theoretical chemistry. The stable structure of a compound is the global minimum of the potential energy surface, which is the high dimensional representation of the enthalpy of the investigated system with respect to its structural parameters. The fact that the complexity of the problem grows exponentially with the system size is the reason why it can only be solved via heuristic strategies.rnrnImprovements to the artificial bee colony method, where the local exploration of the potential energy surface is done by a high number of independent walkers, are developed and implemented. This results in an improved communication scheme between these walkers. This directs the search towards the most promising areas of the potential energy surface.rnrnThe minima hopping method uses short molecular dynamics simulations at elevated temperatures to direct the structure search from one local minimum of the potential energy surface to the next. A modification, where the local information around each minimum is extracted and used in an optimization of the search direction, is developed and implemented. Our method uses this local information to increase the probability of finding new, lower local minima. This leads to an enhanced performance in the global optimization algorithm.rnrnHydrogen is a highly relevant system, due to the possibility of finding a metallic phase and even superconductor with a high critical temperature. An application of a structure prediction method on SiH12 finds stable crystal structures in this material. Additionally, it becomes metallic at relatively low pressures.

Effects of exposure to physical factors on homeopathic preparations as determined by ultraviolet light spectroscopy

Clinical trials have reported statistically significant and clinically relevant effects of homeopathic preparations. We applied ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy to investigate the physical properties of homeopathic preparations and to contribute to an understanding of the not-yet-identified mode of action. In previous investigations, homeopathic preparations had significantly lower UV light transmissions than controls. The aim of this study was to explore the possible effects of external factors (UV light and temperature) on the homeopathic preparations. Homeopathic centesimal (c) dilutions, 1c to 30c, of copper sulfate (CuSO(4)), decimal dilutions of sulfur (S(8)), 1x to 30x, and controls (succussed potentization medium) were prepared, randomized, and blinded. UV transmission was measured at six different time points after preparation (from 4 to 256 days). In addition, one series of samples was exposed to UV light of a sterilization lamp for 12 h, one was incubated at 37 degrees Celsius for 24 h, and one was heated to 90 degrees Celsius for 15 min. UV light transmission values from 190 or 220 nm to 340 nm were measured several times and averaged. After each exposure, UV transmission of the homeopathic preparations of CuSO(4) was significantly reduced compared to the controls, particularly after heating to 37 degrees Celsius. Overall, the nonexposed CuSO(4) preparations did not show significantly lower UV transmission compared to controls; however, the pooled subgroup of measurements at days 26, 33, and 110 yielded significant differences. UV light transmission for S(8) preparations did not show any differences compared to controls. Our conclusion is that exposure to external factors, incubation at 37 degrees Celsius in particular, increases the difference in light transmission of homeopathic CuSO(4) preparations compared to controls.

Extreme Creativity

Bucknell University's instructional technology division of Library and IT partnered with Professor Carmen Gillespie for an innovative course called "Extreme Creativity".

Extensive clonal spread and extreme longevity in saw palmetto, a foundation clonal plant

The lack of effective tools have hampered our ability to assess the size, growth and ages of clonal plants. With Serenoa repens (saw palmetto) as a model, we introduce a novel analytical framework that integrates DNA fingerprinting and mathematical modelling to simulate growth and estimate ages of clonal plants. We also demonstrate the application of such life-history information of clonal plants to provide insight into management plans. Serenoa is an ecologically important foundation species in many Southeastern United States ecosystems; yet, many land managers consider Serenoa a troublesome invasive plant. Accordingly, management plans have been developed to reduce or eliminate Serenoa with little understanding of its life history. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we genotyped 263 Serenoa and 134 Sabal etonia (a sympatric non-clonal palmetto) samples collected from a 20 X 20 m study plot in Florida scrub. Sabal samples were used to assign small field-unidentifiable palmettos to Serenoa or Sabal and also as a negative control for clone detection. We then mathematically modelled clonal networks to estimate genet ages. Our results suggest that Serenoa predominantly propagate via vegetative sprouts and 10000-year-old genets may be common, while showing no evidence of clone formation by Sabal. The results of this and our previous studies suggest that: (i) Serenoa has been part of scrub associations for thousands of years, (ii) Serenoa invasion are unlikely and (ii) once Serenoa is eliminated from local communities, its restoration will be difficult. Reevaluation of the current management tools and plans is an urgent task.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Extensive clonal spread and extreme longevity in saw palmetto, a foundation clonal plant

The lack of effective tools has hampered our ability to assess the size, growth and ages of clonal plants. With Serenoa repens (saw palmetto) as a model, we introduce a novel analytical frame work that integrates DNA fingerprinting and mathematical modelling to simulate growth and estimate ages of clonal plants. We also demonstrate the application of such life-history information of clonal plants to provide insight into management plans. Serenoa is an ecologically important foundation species in many Southeastern United States ecosystems; yet, many land managers consider Serenoa a troublesome invasive plant. Accordingly, management plans have been developed to reduce or eliminate Serenoa with little understanding of its life history. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we genotyped 263 Serenoa and 134 Sabal etonia (a sympatric non-clonal palmetto) samples collected from a 20 x 20 m study plot in Florida scrub. Sabal samples were used to assign small field-unidentifiable palmettos to Serenoa or Sabal and also as a negative control for clone detection. We then mathematically modelled clonal networks to estimate genet ages. Our results suggest that Serenoa predominantly propagate via vegetative sprouts and 10000-year-old genets maybe common, while showing no evidence of clone formation by Sabal. The results of this and our previous studies suggest that: (i) Serenoa has been part of scrub associations for thousands of years, (ii) Serenoa invasions are unlikely and (ii) once Serenoa is eliminated from local communities, its restoration will be difficult. Reevaluation of the current management tools and plans is an urgent task.

Comparative transcriptomics of extreme phenotypes of human HIV-1 infection and SIV infection in sooty mangabey and rhesus macaque

High levels of HIV-1 replication during the chronic phase of infection usually correlate with rapid progression to severe immunodeficiency. However, a minority of highly viremic individuals remains asymptomatic and maintains high CD4⁺ T cell counts. This tolerant profile is poorly understood and reminiscent of the widely studied nonprogressive disease model of SIV infection in natural hosts. Here, we identify transcriptome differences between rapid progressors (RPs) and viremic nonprogressors (VNPs) and highlight several genes relevant for the understanding of HIV-1-induced immunosuppression. RPs were characterized by a specific transcriptome profile of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells similar to that observed in pathogenic SIV-infected rhesus macaques. In contrast, VNPs exhibited lower expression of interferon-stimulated genes and shared a common gene regulation profile with nonpathogenic SIV-infected sooty mangabeys. A short list of genes associated with VNP, including CASP1, CD38, LAG3, TNFSF13B, SOCS1, and EEF1D, showed significant correlation with time to disease progression when evaluated in an independent set of CD4⁺ T cell expression data. This work characterizes 2 minimally studied clinical patterns of progression to AIDS, whose analysis may inform our understanding of HIV pathogenesis.

Radiation doses along selected flight profiles during two extreme solar cosmic ray events

The radiation dose rates at flight altitudes may be hazardously increased during solar cosmic ray events. Within the scope of this paper we investigate the total accumulated radiation doses, i.e. the contribution of galactic and solar cosmic rays, during the two extreme solar cosmic ray events on 29 September 1989 and on 20 January 2005 along selected flight profiles. In addition, the paper discusses the consequences of possible solar cosmic ray flux approximations on the results of the radiation dose computations.

Nonlethal Screening of Bat-Wing Skin with the Use of Ultraviolet Fluorescence to Detect Lesions Indicative of White-Nose Syndrome

Definitive diagnosis of the bat disease white-nose syndrome (WNS) requires histologic analysis to identify the cutaneous erosions caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus [formerly Geomyces] destructans (Pd). Gross visual inspection does not distinguish bats with or without WNS, and no nonlethal, on-site, preliminary screening methods are available for WNS in bats. We demonstrate that long-wave ultraviolet (UV) light (wavelength 366-385 nm) elicits a distinct orange yellow fluorescence in bat-wing membranes (skin) that corresponds directly with the fungal cupping erosions in histologic sections of skin that are the current gold standard for diagnosis of WNS. Between March 2009 and April 2012, wing membranes from 168 North American bat carcasses submitted to the US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center were examined with the use of both UV light and histology. Comparison of these techniques showed that 98.8% of the bats with foci of orange yellow wing fluorescence (n=80) were WNS-positive based on histologic diagnosis; bat wings that did not fluoresce under UV light (n=88) were all histologically negative for WNS lesions. Punch biopsy samples as small as 3 mm taken from areas of wing with UV fluorescence were effective for identifying lesions diagnostic for WNS by histopathology. In a nonlethal biopsy-based study of 62 bats sampled (4-mm diameter) in hibernacula of the Czech Republic during 2012, 95.5% of fluorescent (n=22) and 100% of nonfluorescent (n=40) wing samples were confirmed by histopathology to be WNS positive and negative, respectively. This evidence supports use of long-wave UV light as a nonlethal and field-applicable method to screen bats for lesions indicative of WNS. Further, UV fluorescence can be used to guide targeted, nonlethal biopsy sampling for follow-up molecular testing, fungal culture analysis, and histologic confirmation of WNS.