A coupled ocean-atmosphere system for short term forecasting in the southern european seas

This coupled model combines two state-of-the-art numerical models, NEMO for the oceanic component and WRF for the atmospheric component and implements them at an appropriate resolution. The oceanic model has been implemented starting from the Mediterranean Forecasting System with a resolution of 1/24° and the domain was extended to exactly match the grid of a newly implemented atmospheric model for the same area. The uncoupled ocean model has been validated against SST observed data, both in the simulation of an extreme event and in the short-term forecast of two seasonal periods. A new setup of the model was successfully tested in which the downward radiative fluxes were prescribed from atmospheric forecasts. Various physical schemes, domain, boundary, and initial conditions were tested with the atmospheric model to obtain the best representation of medicane Ianos. The heat fluxes calculated by the uncoupled models were compared to determine which setup gave the best energy balance between the components of the coupled model. The coupling strategy used is the traditional one, where the ocean is driven by the surface stress, heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes computed in the atmospheric component, which in turn receives the SST and surface currents. As expected, the overall skills of the coupled model are slightly degraded compared to the uncoupled models, even though the positioning and timing of the cyclone at the time of the landfall is enhanced. The mean heat fluxes do not change compared to the uncoupled model, whereas the pattern of the shortwave radiation and latent heat is changed. Moreover, the two energy fluxes are larger in absolute values than those calculated with the MFS formulas. The fact that they have opposite signs give raise to a compensation error that limits the overall degradation of the coupled simulation.

Analysis of earthquakes predictability

Earthquake prediction is a complex task for scientists due to the rare occurrence of high-intensity earthquakes and their inaccessible depths. Despite this challenge, it is a priority to protect infrastructure, and populations living in areas of high seismic risk. Reliable forecasting requires comprehensive knowledge of seismic phenomena. In this thesis, the development, application, and comparison of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting methods is shown. Regarding the deterministic approach, the implementation of an alarm-based method using the occurrence of strong (fore)shocks, widely felt by the population, as a precursor signal is described. This model is then applied for retrospective prediction of Italian earthquakes of magnitude M≥5.0,5.5,6.0, occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2020. Retrospective performance testing is carried out using tests and statistics specific to deterministic alarm-based models. Regarding probabilistic models, this thesis focuses mainly on the EEPAS and ETAS models. Although the EEPAS model has been previously applied and tested in some regions of the world, it has never been used for forecasting Italian earthquakes. In the thesis, the EEPAS model is used to retrospectively forecast Italian shallow earthquakes with a magnitude of M≥5.0 using new MATLAB software. The forecasting performance of the probabilistic models was compared to other models using CSEP binary tests. The EEPAS and ETAS models showed different characteristics for forecasting Italian earthquakes, with EEPAS performing better in the long-term and ETAS performing better in the short-term. The FORE model based on strong precursor quakes is compared to EEPAS and ETAS using an alarm-based deterministic approach. All models perform better than a random forecasting model, with ETAS and FORE models showing better performance. However, to fully evaluate forecasting performance, prospective tests should be conducted. The lack of objective tests for evaluating deterministic models and comparing them with probabilistic ones was a challenge faced during the study.

Toxic cyanobacteria in water intended for drinking purpose: improvement of cells and toxins’ analyses and of treatments for their removal

Massive proliferations of cyanobacteria in freshwaters have recently increased, causing ecological and economic losses. Their ever-increasing presence in water sources destined to potabilization has become a major threat for public health, since several species can produce harmful toxins (cyanotoxin). Therefore, additional specific measures to improve management and treatment of drinking water(s) are required. The PhD thesis investigates toxic cyanobacteria in drinking waters with a special focus on Emilia-Romagna (Italy), throughout three separated chapters, each with different specific objectives. The first chapter aims at improving the fast monitoring of cyanobacteria in drinking water, which was investigated by testing different models of multi-wavelength spectrofluorometers. Inter-laboratories calibrations were conducted using mono-specific cultures and field samples, and both the feasibility and the technical limitations of such tools were illustrated. The second chapter evaluates the effectiveness of drinking water treatments in removing cyanobacterial cells and toxins. Two chlorinated oxidants (sodium hypochlorite and chlorine dioxide) already in use for pre-oxidation during water potabilization, were tested on cultures of the toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa posing a specific focus on toxin removal and revealing that pre-oxidation can cause the release of toxins and unknown metabolites. Innovative treatments based on non-thermal plasma were also tested, observing an effective and rapid inactivation of cyanobacterial cells. The third chapter presents a study on a cyanobacterium isolated from a drinking water reservoir of Emilia-Romagna and investigated by combining biological, chemical, and genomic methods. Although the strain did not produce any known cyanotoxin, high toxicity of water-extract was observed in bioassays and potential implications for drinking water were discussed. Overall, the PhD thesis offers new insights into toxic cyanobacteria management in drinking water, highlighting best practices for drinking water managers regarding their detection and removal. Additionally, the thesis provides new contributions to the understanding of the freshwater cyanobacteria community in the Emilia-Romagna region.

Effects of allelopathic compounds produced by native and invasive marine macroalgae on the associated communities

In this study, the production of bioactive secondary metabolites called "allelochemicals" by algae has been investigated, specifically focusing on polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs). PUAs are known to have adverse effects on planktonic grazers and on phytoplankton; however, their effect on benthic communities has been poorly studied. Macroalgae are ecosystem engineers that play an important role in the structure of the habitat and associated communities, presenting a great variability in their morphology and structural complexity, which is a primary factor in the structuring of associated communities. In recent decades, it has been seen how the introduction of invasive species can modify the benthic habitat structure, causing cascading effects on the trophic chain. The thesis includes several field and laboratory studies. Field studies examined aldehyde production by native and invasive macroalgal species (Sargassum muticum, in the Adriatic Sea, and Rugulopterix okamurae in the Strait of Gibraltar), their structural complexity, together with their associated phyto and meiobenthos. Two laboratory studies were conducted. The first one, based on microcosms experiments, evaluated the effect of PUA (produced by the diatom Skeletonema marinoi, or as decadienal analytical standard) on meiofauna. The second one evaluated the inhibitory effect of dilkamural, an allelopathic compound isolated from R. okamurae, on unicellular phototrophs. Our results showed that PUAs produced by macroalgae were species-specific and had a significant impact on the benthic community. The morphology of macroalgae was an important factor in shaping associated communities, particularly for microphytobenthos. Invasive species, such as S. muticum and R. okamurae, could reduce the biodiversity of native benthic communities and simplify the habitat. Dilkamural was hypothesized to be an allelochemical defense, and laboratory toxicity tests confirmed this hypothesis. Overall, this thesis sheds light on the importance of allelochemicals and macroalgal structural complexity in the benthic environment and highlights the potential impact of invasive species.

SPHERA, a new Italian convection-permitting regional reanalysis: improving heavy-rainfall representation and describing hail-prone environments

Extreme weather events related to deep convection are high-impact critical phenomena whose reliable numerical simulation is still challenging. High-resolution (convection-permitting) modeling setups allow to switch off physical parameterizations accountable for substantial errors in convection representation. A new convection-permitting reanalysis over Italy (SPHERA) has been produced at ARPAE to enhance the representation and understanding of extreme weather situations. SPHERA is obtained through a dynamical downscaling of the global reanalysis ERA5 using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO at 2.2 km grid spacing over 1995-2020. This thesis aims to verify the expectations placed on SPHERA by analyzing two weather phenomena that are particularly challenging to simulate: heavy rainfall and hail. A quantitative statistical analysis over Italy during 2003-2017 for daily and hourly precipitation is presented to compare the performance of SPHERA with its driver ERA5 considering the national network of rain gauges as reference. Furthermore, two extreme precipitation events are deeply investigated. SPHERA shows a quantitative added skill over ERA5 for moderate to severe and rapid accumulations in terms of adherence to the observations, higher detailing of the spatial fields, and more precise temporal matching. These results prompted the use of SPHERA for the investigation of hailstorms, for which the combination of multiple information is crucial to reduce the substantial uncertainties permeating their understanding. A proxy for hail is developed by combining hail-favoring environmental numerical predictors with observations of ESWD hail reports and satellite overshooting top detections. The procedure is applied to the extended summer season (April-October) of 2016-2018 over the whole SPHERA spatial domain. The results indicate maximum hail likelihood over pre-Alpine regions and the northern Adriatic sea around 15 UTC in June-July, in agreement with recent European hail climatologies. The method demonstrates enhanced performance in case of severe hail occurrences and the ability to separate between ambient signatures depending on hail severity.

Oceanic Near-inertial internal waves generation, propagation and interaction with mesoscale dynamics

Oceans play a key role in the climate system, being the largest heat sinks on Earth. Part of the energy balance of ocean circulation is driven by the Near-inertial internal waves (NIWs). Strong NIWs are observed during a multi-platform, multi-disciplinary and multi-scale campaign led by the NATO-STO CMRE in autumn 2017 in the Ligurian Sea (northwestern Mediterranean Sea). The objectives of this work are as follows: characterise the studied area at different scales; study the NIWs generation and their propagation; estimate the NIWs properties; study the interaction between NIWs and mesoscale structures. This work provides, to the author’s knowledge, the first characterization of NIWs in the Mediterranean Sea. The near-surface NIWs observed at the fixed moorings are locally generated by wind bursts while the deeper waves originate in other regions and arrive at the moorings several days later. Most of the observed NIWs energy propagates downward with a mean vertical group velocity of (2.2±0.3) ⋅10-4 m s-1. On average, the NIWs have an amplitude of 0.13 m s-1 and mean horizontal and vertical wavelengths of 43±25 km and 125±35 m, while shorter wavelengths are observed at the near-coastal mooring, 36±2 km and 33±2 m, respectively. Most of the observed NIWs are blue shifted and reach a value 9% higher than the local inertial frequency. Only two observed NIWs are characterised by a redshift (up to 3% lower than the local inertial frequency). In support of the in situ observations, a high resolution numerical model is implemented using NEMO (Madec et al., 2019). Results show that anticyclones (cyclones) shift the frequency of NIWs to lower (higher) frequencies with respect to the local inertial frequency. Anticyclones facilitate the downward propagation of NIW energy, while cyclones dampen it. Absence of NIWs energy within an anticyclone is also investigated.

Taxonomy, phylogeography and myrmecophily of the spider genus Mastigusa (Araneae, Cybaeidae)

The genus Mastigusa Menge, 1854 includes small entelegyne spiders represented by extant and fossil species presenting characteristic features in male and female genitalia. The genus has a palearctic distribution, being present in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East, and shows ecological plasticity, with free-living, cave- dwelling and myrmecophile populations. The taxonomic history of the genus has been problematic, both regarding its phylogenetic placement and the delimitation of the species it includes. Three extant species are currently recognized, but the characters used to discriminate them have been inconsistent, leading to confusion about their identification and distribution. In the present thesis we addressed the taxonomic issues regarding Mastigusa by combining molecular and morphological data in an integrative taxonomy approach. For the first time, we included the genus in a molecular phylogenetic matrix solving a long going debate regarding its familiar placement, obtaining a well-supported placement in the family Cybaeidae. We used multi-locus molecular phylogenetic and DNA barcoding techniques as a starting point for identifying divergent lineages within the genus and revise the taxonomic status of the three known Mastigusa species, identifying a new species from the Iberian Peninsula, Algeria and the United Kingdom: M. raimondi sp. n. This taxonomic revision allowed a phylogeographic and ecological study of Mastigusa across its distribution range, carried out using phylogenetics and ecological niche modelling techniques, aiming at a comparison of the lifestyles and ecological requirements of the different species on a geographic scale. The Italian Alps were finally used as a testing ground for investigating the ecology and host preference of myrmecophile Mastigusa arietina populations living in association with ant species belonging to the Formica rufa species group. Spiders were found in association with five different Formica species, demonstrating little specificity and the tendency of associating with the locally present host species.

Mainstreaming of Nature-Based Solutions for the mitigation of hydro-meteorological hazard: governance analysis of a socio- technical change

The Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) concept and approach were developed to simultaneously face challenges such as risk mitigation and biodiversity conservation and restoration. NBSs have been endorsed by major International Organizations such as the EU, the FAO and World Bank that are pushing to enable a mainstreaming process. However, a shift from traditional engineering “grey” solutions to wider and standard adoption of NBS encounters technical, social, cultural, and normative barriers that have been identified with a qualitative content analysis of policy documents, reports and expert interviews. The case of the region Emilia-Romagna was studied by developing an analytical framework that brought together the social-ecological context, the governance system and the characteristics of specific NBSs.

Advanced representation of the ocean/sea ice dynamics at high latitudes

Sea ice is a fundamental element of global climate system, with numerous impacts on the polar environment. The ongoing drastic changes in the Earth’s sea ice cover highlight the necessity of monitoring the polar regions and systematically evaluating the quality of different numerical products. The main objective of this thesis is to improve our knowledge of the representation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice using comprehensive global ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models. The dissertation will explore (i) the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice area in the ensemble mean of four global ocean reanalyses called GREP; (ii) historical representation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice state in HighResMIP models; (iii) the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in HighResMIP models. Global ocean reanalyses and GREP are found to adequately capture interannual and seasonal variability in both pack ice and MIZ areas at hemispheric and regional scales. The advantage of the ensemble-mean approach is proved as GREP smooths the strengths and weaknesses of single systems and provides the most consistent and reliable estimates. This work is intended to encourage the use of GREP in a wide range of applications. The analysis of sea ice representation in the coupled climate models shows no systematic impact of the increased horizontal resolution. We argue that a few minor improvements in sea ice representation with the enhanced horizontal resolution are presumably not worth the major effort of costly computations. The thesis highlights the critical importance to distinguish the MIZ from consolidated pack ice both for investigating changes in sea ice distribution and evaluating the product’s performance. Considering that the MIZ is predicted to dominate the Arctic sea ice cover, the model physics parameterizations and sea ice rheology might require modifications. The results of the work can be useful for modelling community.

Framing climate change: a planetary health perspective on the pediatric age

This thesis analyzes an analysis of the risk perception of Italian paediatricians and parents regarding the impact of climate change on pediatric health. The consequences of climate change are now before our eyes; the recent pandemic has highlighted the impact that the destruction of ecosystems and global warming can have on our health. Fragile subjects will pay the most for the consequences of this crisis: children, the elderly, pregnant women. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 88% of the disease burden linked to climate change falls on children under the age of 5. Climate change poses a challenge of equity not only between different areas of the world but also between generations: the worst consequences will weigh on those who have not caused damage to the ecosystem. This study began by studying the risk perceptions of the two main caregivers who deal with the child's health: parents and paediatricians. The study analyzed a mixed methods approach, exploiting quantitative and qualitative approaches. Two surveys were carried out in collaboration with the Italian Society of Pediatrics (SIP) and AGE, the Italian Parents' Association, using a tool already consolidated in the literature and adapted according to the needs of the thesis. Sixty semi-structured interviews were then conducted with pediatricians of different age groups and different regions of Italy. The collected data were then compared with the literature on the subject, in order to understand differences and similarities. This work is part of a still rather scarce, but growing, field of literature and represents the first study of this type in Italy.

Ship performance modelling for least-CO2 emission routes

Decarbonization of maritime transport requires immediate action. In the short term, ship weather routing can provide greenhouse gas emission reductions, even for existing ships and without retrofitting them. Weather routing is based on making optimal use of both envi- ronmental information and knowledge about vessel seakeeping and performance. Combining them at a state-of-the-art level and making use of path planning in realistic conditions can be challenging. To address these topics in an open-source framework, this thesis led to the development of a new module called bateau , and to its combination with the ship routing model VISIR. bateau includes both hull geometry and propulsion modelling for various vessel types. It has two objectives: to predict the sustained speed in a seaway and to estimate the CO2 emission rate during the voyage. Various semi-empirical approaches were used in bateau to predict the ship hydro- and aerodynamical resistance in both head and oblique seas. Assuming that the ship sails at a constant engine load, the involuntary speed loss due to waves was estimated. This thesis also attempted to clarify the role played by the actual representation of the sea state. In particular, the influence of the wave steepness parameter was assessed. For dealing with ships with a greater superstructure, the wind added resistance was also estimated. Numerical experiments via bateau were conducted for both a medium and a large-size container ships, a bulk-carrier, and a tanker. The simulations of optimal routes were carried out for a feeder containership during voyages in the North Indian Ocean and in the South China Sea. Least-CO2 routes were compared to the least-distance ones, assessing the relative CO2 savings. Analysis fields from the Copernicus Marine Service were used in the numerical experiments.

Monitoring time-dependent deformation patterns through geodetic techniques

In this thesis we focus on the analysis and interpretation of time dependent deformations recorded through different geodetic methods. Firstly, we apply a variational Bayesian Independent Component Analysis (vbICA) technique to GPS daily displacement solutions, to separate the postseismic deformation that followed the mainshocks of the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence from the other, hydrological, deformation sources. By interpreting the signal associated with the postseismic relaxation, we model an afterslip distribution on the faults involved by the mainshocks consistent with the co-seismic models available in literature. We find evidences of aseismic slip on the Paganica fault, responsible for the Mw 6.1 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, highlighting the importance of aseismic slip and static stress transfer to properly model the recurrence of earthquakes on nearby fault segments. We infer a possible viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust as a contributing mechanism to the postseismic displacements. We highlight the importance of a proper separation of the hydrological signals for an accurate assessment of the tectonic processes, especially in cases of mm-scale deformations. Contextually, we provide a physical explanation to the ICs associated with the observed hydrological processes. In the second part of the thesis, we focus on strain data from Gladwin Tensor Strainmeters, working on the instruments deployed in Taiwan. We develop a novel approach, completely data driven, to calibrate these strainmeters. We carry out a joint analysis of geodetic (strainmeters, GPS and GRACE products) and hydrological (rain gauges and piezometers) data sets, to characterize the hydrological signals in Southern Taiwan. Lastly, we apply the calibration approach here proposed to the strainmeters recently installed in Central Italy. We provide, as an example, the detection of a storm that hit the Umbria-Marche regions (Italy), demonstrating the potential of strainmeters in following the dynamics of deformation processes with limited spatio-temporal signature

Skeletal variability of the fibular ends and evolutionary implications

This thesis investigates the morphological variations of fibular extremities in humans and non-human hominids using a 3D Geometric Morphometric approach. The study has three objectives: (1) to assess the shape, form, and size variations of fibular epiphyses within the human species, highlighting sexually dimorphic features; (2) to explore interpopulation variability of fibular extremities from the Upper Paleolithic to the 20th century, comparing subsistence, mobility, and lifestyles; and (3) to examine interspecific variations in fibular ends, testing potential associations with locomotor and positional behavior among extant hominid taxa. In terms of intraspecific variations, sex-related differences in fibular form and size were observed, suggesting distinct functional requirements for the lower limb between sexes. Interpopulation variations revealed a decline in activity level over time, influenced by terrain and footwear use. Hunter-gatherer groups exhibited greater joint mobility, loading, and range of motion compared to sedentary pre- and post-industrial populations. Interspecific variations demonstrated significant morphological differences among hominid taxa, indicating functional implications related to both phylogeny and specific loading patterns on the lower limb. The study identified features indicative of bipedalism in humans, as well as shared characteristics among non-human great apes. Furthermore, distinguishing features were found between Asian and African apes, along with unique morphological signals associated with distinct positional behavior in each hominid taxa. By comprehensively analyzing fibular morphology, this research sheds light on the importance of this bone in knee support, ankle stabilization, and overall locomotor function. The findings contribute to our understanding of the evolutionary and functional aspects of the fibula across human populations and non-human hominids throughout history.

A Trans-dimensional inversion algorithm to model deformation sources with unconstrained shape in finite element domains

Ground deformation provides valuable insights on subsurface processes with pattens reflecting the characteristics of the source at depth. In active volcanic sites displacements can be observed in unrest phases; therefore, a correct interpretation is essential to assess the hazard potential. Inverse modeling is employed to obtain quantitative estimates of parameters describing the source. However, despite the robustness of the available approaches, a realistic imaging of these reservoirs is still challenging. While analytical models return quick but simplistic results, assuming an isotropic and elastic crust, more sophisticated numerical models, accounting for the effects of topographic loads, crust inelasticity and structural discontinuities, require much higher computational effort and information about the crust rheology may be challenging to infer. All these approaches are based on a-priori source shape constraints, influencing the solution reliability. In this thesis, we present a new approach aimed at overcoming the aforementioned limitations, modeling sources free of a-priori shape constraints with the advantages of FEM simulations, but with a cost-efficient procedure. The source is represented as an assembly of elementary units, consisting in cubic elements of a regular FE mesh loaded with a unitary stress tensors. The surface response due to each of the six stress tensor components is computed and linearly combined to obtain the total displacement field. In this way, the source can assume potentially any shape. Our tests prove the equivalence of the deformation fields due to our assembly and that of corresponding cavities with uniform boundary pressure. Our ability to simulate pressurized cavities in a continuum domain permits to pre-compute surface responses, avoiding remeshing. A Bayesian trans-dimensional inversion algorithm implementing this strategy is developed. 3D Voronoi cells are used to sample the model domain, selecting the elementary units contributing to the source solution and those remaining inactive as part of the crust.

Wheat adaptation to climate change in the Mediterranean Basin: retracing the past to predict the future

Wheat productivity is alarmingly threatened by climate change in the Mediterranean Basin, where it is mainly cultivated as a rainfed crop and where the latest climatic projections foresee a rise in temperatures and a reduction in precipitation, with important yield losses expected, being drought the main abiotic stress hampering wheat productivity. Assessing and quantifying the alterations in wheat life cycle caused by climate change is thus a key goal, as well as understating the underlying mechanisms of drought resistance. The first part of this thesis is focused on these main topics. A precise quantification of climate change effects on wheat in this area was performed through a case study, coupling phenological, meteorological and grain quality data before and after climate change. Then, accurate and detailed literature search was performed, reviewing the main controversies regarding the reliability of various functional traits to be used as breeding tools for improving wheat drought stress resistance. The second part of this thesis is focused in identifying interesting genetic material to improve wheat drought stress resistance in the Mediterranean Basin, analyzing drought response on a panel of tetraploid wheat accessions in vitro and in vivo as well as in open field trials, chosen in the attempt to represent as much as possible the biodiversity of tetraploid wheat. The third part of this thesis highlights differences in technological, nutritional and nutraceutical quality between modern cultivars and landraces, focusing on lipids, primary metabolites and bioactive compounds. In fact, wheat adaptation to climate change does not only mean to guarantee satisfactory yields in adverse conditions. It also means to provide millions of consumers with a diet-base food crop, with an improved nutraceutical and nutritional quality. Therefore, investigation and selection process for abiotic stress resistance and for improved quality has to go hand in hand.