Meridional gradients in aerosol vertical distribution over Indian Mainland: Observations and model simulations

Multi-year observations from the network of ground-based observatories (ARFINET), established under the project `Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India' (ARFI) of Indian Space Research Organization and space-borne lidar `Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization' (CALIOP) along with simulations from the chemical transport model `Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport' (GOCART), are used to characterize the vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosols over the Indian landmass and its spatial structure. While the vertical distribution of aerosol extinction showed higher values close to the surface followed by a gradual decrease at increasing altitudes, a strong meridional increase is observed in the vertical spread of aerosols across the Indian region in all seasons. It emerges that the strong thermal convections cause deepening of the atmospheric boundary layer, which although reduces the aerosol concentration at lower altitudes, enhances the concentration at higher elevations by pumping up more aerosols from below and also helping the lofted particles to reach higher levels in the atmosphere. Aerosol depolarization ratios derived from CALIPSO as well as the GOCART simulations indicate the dominance of mineral dust aerosols during spring and summer and anthropogenic aerosols in winter. During summer monsoon, though heavy rainfall associated with the Indian monsoon removes large amounts of aerosols, the prevailing southwesterly winds advect more marine aerosols over to landmass (from the adjoining oceans) leading to increase in aerosol loading at lower altitudes than in spring. During spring and summer months, aerosol loading is found to be significant, even at altitudes as high as 4 km, and this is proposed to have significant impacts on the regional climate systems such as Indian monsoon. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using network mesures to test evolved NK-landscapes

In this paper we empirically investigate which are the structural characteristics that can help to predict the complexity of NK-landscape instances for estimation of distribution algorithms. To this end, we evolve instances that maximize the estimation of distribution algorithm complexity in terms of its success rate. Similarly, instances that minimize the algorithm complexity are evolved. We then identify network measures, computed from the structures of the NK-landscape instances, that have a statistically significant difference between the set of easy and hard instances. The features identified are consistently significant for different values of N and K.

Learning in Network Games

We report the findings of an experiment designed to study how people learn and make decisions in network games. Network games offer new opportunities to identify learning rules, since on networks (compared to e.g. random matching) more rules differ in terms of their information requirements. Our experimental design enables us to observe both which actions participants choose and which information they consult before making their choices. We use this information to estimate learning types using maximum likelihood methods. There is substantial heterogeneity in learning types. However, the vast majority of our participants' decisions are best characterized by reinforcement learning or (myopic) best-response learning. The distribution of learning types seems fairly stable across contexts. Neither network topology nor the position of a player in the network seem to substantially affect the estimated distribution of learning types.

New methods for generating populations in Markov network based EDAs: Decimation strategies and model-based template recombination

Methods for generating a new population are a fundamental component of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs). They serve to transfer the information contained in the probabilistic model to the new generated population. In EDAs based on Markov networks, methods for generating new populations usually discard information contained in the model to gain in efficiency. Other methods like Gibbs sampling use information about all interactions in the model but are computationally very costly. In this paper we propose new methods for generating new solutions in EDAs based on Markov networks. We introduce approaches based on inference methods for computing the most probable configurations and model-based template recombination. We show that the application of different variants of inference methods can increase the EDAs’ convergence rate and reduce the number of function evaluations needed to find the optimum of binary and non-binary discrete functions.

Influence of Training Set Selection in Artificial Neural Network-Based Propagation Path Loss Predictions

This paper analyzes the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for predicting the received power/path loss in both outdoor and indoor links. The approach followed has been a combined use of ANNs and ray-tracing, the latter allowing the identification and parameterization of the so-called dominant path. A complete description of the process for creating and training an ANN-based model is presented with special emphasis on the training process. More specifically, we will be discussing various techniques to arrive at valid predictions focusing on an optimum selection of the training set. A quantitative analysis based on results from two narrowband measurement campaigns, one outdoors and the other indoors, is also presented.

Abundance and distribution patters of Hawaiian odontocetes: focus on O'ahu

This dissertation is an assessment of the status of odontocetes in Hawaiian waters focussing on O´ahu. The work builds on available literature, and on data collected by the author and by others in Hawaiian waters. Abundance and distribution patterns of odontocetes were derived from stranding and aerial survey data. A stranding network operated by the National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Area Office collected 187 stranding reports throughout the main Hawaiian Islands between 1937 and 2002. These reports included 16 odontocete species. Number of stranding reports increased over time and was highest on O´ahu. Strandings occurred throughout the year. The difference in number of strandings per month was not significant. Fifteen of the 16 species reported in the stranding record for the main Hawaiian Islands were also reported by aerial survey studies of the area between 1993 and 1998. Only 7 of the species reported were detected during aerial transects around O′ahu between 1998 and 2000. Based on the stranding record, Kogia sp., melon-headed whales, striped dolphins and dwarf killer whale appear to be more common than suggested by aerial surveys. Conversely, pilot whales and bottlenose dolphins were more common, according to aerial surveys, than predicted by the stranding data. Aerial surveys of waters between 0 and 500m around the Island of O′ahu showed that the most abundant species by frequency of occurrence was the pilot whale (30% of sightings), followed by the spinner (16%) and bottlenose dolphin (14%). Because of small sample size, abundance estimates for odontocetes have a high level of uncertainty. The unavailability of a correction factor for g(0)<1, and the reduced visibility below the aircraft further reduced accuracy and increased the inherent underestimation in the data. The most abundant species according to distance sampling estimates were spotted dolphins, pilot whales, false killer whales and spinner dolphins. A natural factor shaping the ecology of odontocete populations is predation pressure both by other odontocetes and, more frequently, by sharks. An account of predation by a tiger shark on a spotted dolphin near Penguin Banks is used as an example of the potential mechanisms of predation by sharks on odontocetes.

Analytical efficiency evaluation of a network mobility management protocol for Intelligent Transportation Systems

One of the major concerns in an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) scenario, such as that which may be found on a long-distance train service, is the provision of efficient communication services, satisfying users' expectations, and fulfilling even highly demanding application requirements, such as safety-oriented services. In an ITS scenario, it is common to have a significant amount of onboard devices that comprise a cluster of nodes (a mobile network) that demand connectivity to the outside networks. This demand has to be satisfied without service disruption. Consequently, the mobility of the mobile network has to be managed. Due to the nature of mobile networks, efficient and lightweight protocols are desired in the ITS context to ensure adequate service performance. However, the security is also a key factor in this scenario. Since the management of the mobility is essential for providing communications, the protocol for managing this mobility has to be protected. Furthermore, there are safety-oriented services in this scenario, so user application data should also be protected. Nevertheless, providing security is expensive in terms of efficiency. Based on this considerations, we have developed a solution for managing the network mobility for ITS scenarios: the NeMHIP protocol. This approach provides a secure management of network mobility in an efficient manner. In this article, we present this protocol and the strategy developed to maintain its security and efficiency in satisfactory levels. We also present the developed analytical models to analyze quantitatively the efficiency of the protocol. More specifically, we have developed models for assessing it in terms of signaling cost, which demonstrates that NeMHIP generates up to 73.47% less signaling compared to other relevant approaches. Therefore, the results obtained demonstrate that NeMHIP is the most efficient and secure solution for providing communications in mobile network scenarios such as in an ITS context.

Characterizing distribution rules for cost sharing games

In noncooperative cost sharing games, individually strategic agents choose resources based on how the welfare (cost or revenue) generated at each resource (which depends on the set of agents that choose the resource) is distributed. The focus is on finding distribution rules that lead to stable allocations, which is formalized by the concept of Nash equilibrium, e.g., Shapley value (budget-balanced) and marginal contribution (not budget-balanced) rules.

Recent work that seeks to characterize the space of all such rules shows that the only budget-balanced distribution rules that guarantee equilibrium existence in all welfare sharing games are generalized weighted Shapley values (GWSVs), by exhibiting a specific 'worst-case' welfare function which requires that GWSV rules be used. Our work provides an exact characterization of the space of distribution rules (not necessarily budget-balanced) for any specific local welfare functions remains, for a general class of scalable and separable games with well-known applications, e.g., facility location, routing, network formation, and coverage games.

We show that all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to GWSV rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. Therefore, it is neither the existence of some worst-case welfare function, nor the restriction of budget-balance, which limits the design to GWSVs. Also, in order to guarantee equilibrium existence, it is necessary to work within the class of potential games, since GWSVs result in (weighted) potential games.

We also provide an alternative characterization—all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to generalized weighted marginal contribution (GWMC) rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. This result is due to a deeper fundamental connection between Shapley values and marginal contributions that our proofs expose—they are equivalent given a transformation connecting their ground welfare functions. (This connection leads to novel closed-form expressions for the GWSV potential function.) Since GWMCs are more tractable than GWSVs, a designer can tradeoff budget-balance with computational tractability in deciding which rule to implement.

An integrated design approach to power systems : from power flows to electricity markets

Power system is at the brink of change. Engineering needs, economic forces and environmental factors are the main drivers of this change. The vision is to build a smart electrical grid and a smarter market mechanism around it to fulfill mandates on clean energy. Looking at engineering and economic issues in isolation is no longer an option today; it needs an integrated design approach. In this thesis, I shall revisit some of the classical questions on the engineering operation of power systems that deals with the nonconvexity of power flow equations. Then I shall explore some issues of the interaction of these power flow equations on the electricity markets to address the fundamental issue of market power in a deregulated market environment. Finally, motivated by the emergence of new storage technologies, I present an interesting result on the investment decision problem of placing storage over a power network. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that modern optimization and game theory can provide unique insights into this complex system. Some of the ideas carry over to applications beyond power systems.

Distributed Load Control in Multiphase Radial Networks

The current power grid is on the cusp of modernization due to the emergence of distributed generation and controllable loads, as well as renewable energy. On one hand, distributed and renewable generation is volatile and difficult to dispatch. On the other hand, controllable loads provide significant potential for compensating for the uncertainties. In a future grid where there are thousands or millions of controllable loads and a large portion of the generation comes from volatile sources like wind and solar, distributed control that shifts or reduces the power consumption of electric loads in a reliable and economic way would be highly valuable.

Load control needs to be conducted with network awareness. Otherwise, voltage violations and overloading of circuit devices are likely. To model these effects, network power flows and voltages have to be considered explicitly. However, the physical laws that determine power flows and voltages are nonlinear. Furthermore, while distributed generation and controllable loads are mostly located in distribution networks that are multiphase and radial, most of the power flow studies focus on single-phase networks.

This thesis focuses on distributed load control in multiphase radial distribution networks. In particular, we first study distributed load control without considering network constraints, and then consider network-aware distributed load control.

Distributed implementation of load control is the main challenge if network constraints can be ignored. In this case, we first ignore the uncertainties in renewable generation and load arrivals, and propose a distributed load control algorithm, Algorithm 1, that optimally schedules the deferrable loads to shape the net electricity demand. Deferrable loads refer to loads whose total energy consumption is fixed, but energy usage can be shifted over time in response to network conditions. Algorithm 1 is a distributed gradient decent algorithm, and empirically converges to optimal deferrable load schedules within 15 iterations.

We then extend Algorithm 1 to a real-time setup where deferrable loads arrive over time, and only imprecise predictions about future renewable generation and load are available at the time of decision making. The real-time algorithm Algorithm 2 is based on model-predictive control: Algorithm 2 uses updated predictions on renewable generation as the true values, and computes a pseudo load to simulate future deferrable load. The pseudo load consumes 0 power at the current time step, and its total energy consumption equals the expectation of future deferrable load total energy request.

Network constraints, e.g., transformer loading constraints and voltage regulation constraints, bring significant challenge to the load control problem since power flows and voltages are governed by nonlinear physical laws. Remarkably, distribution networks are usually multiphase and radial. Two approaches are explored to overcome this challenge: one based on convex relaxation and the other that seeks a locally optimal load schedule.

To explore the convex relaxation approach, a novel but equivalent power flow model, the branch flow model, is developed, and a semidefinite programming relaxation, called BFM-SDP, is obtained using the branch flow model. BFM-SDP is mathematically equivalent to a standard convex relaxation proposed in the literature, but numerically is much more stable. Empirical studies show that BFM-SDP is numerically exact for the IEEE 13-, 34-, 37-, 123-bus networks and a real-world 2065-bus network, while the standard convex relaxation is numerically exact for only two of these networks.

Theoretical guarantees on the exactness of convex relaxations are provided for two types of networks: single-phase radial alternative-current (AC) networks, and single-phase mesh direct-current (DC) networks. In particular, for single-phase radial AC networks, we prove that a second-order cone program (SOCP) relaxation is exact if voltage upper bounds are not binding; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact. For single-phase mesh DC networks, we prove that an SOCP relaxation is exact if 1) voltage upper bounds are not binding, or 2) voltage upper bounds are uniform and power injection lower bounds are strictly negative; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact.

To seek a locally optimal load schedule, a distributed gradient-decent algorithm, Algorithm 9, is proposed. The suboptimality gap of the algorithm is rigorously characterized and close to 0 for practical networks. Furthermore, unlike the convex relaxation approach, Algorithm 9 ensures a feasible solution. The gradients used in Algorithm 9 are estimated based on a linear approximation of the power flow, which is derived with the following assumptions: 1) line losses are negligible; and 2) voltages are reasonably balanced. Both assumptions are satisfied in practical distribution networks. Empirical results show that Algorithm 9 obtains 70+ times speed up over the convex relaxation approach, at the cost of a suboptimality within numerical precision.

Distributed Control and Optimization for Communication and Power Systems

We are at the cusp of a historic transformation of both communication system and electricity system. This creates challenges as well as opportunities for the study of networked systems. Problems of these systems typically involve a huge number of end points that require intelligent coordination in a distributed manner. In this thesis, we develop models, theories, and scalable distributed optimization and control algorithms to overcome these challenges.

This thesis focuses on two specific areas: multi-path TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) and electricity distribution system operation and control. Multi-path TCP (MP-TCP) is a TCP extension that allows a single data stream to be split across multiple paths. MP-TCP has the potential to greatly improve reliability as well as efficiency of communication devices. We propose a fluid model for a large class of MP-TCP algorithms and identify design criteria that guarantee the existence, uniqueness, and stability of system equilibrium. We clarify how algorithm parameters impact TCP-friendliness, responsiveness, and window oscillation and demonstrate an inevitable tradeoff among these properties. We discuss the implications of these properties on the behavior of existing algorithms and motivate a new algorithm Balia (balanced linked adaptation) which generalizes existing algorithms and strikes a good balance among TCP-friendliness, responsiveness, and window oscillation. We have implemented Balia in the Linux kernel. We use our prototype to compare the new proposed algorithm Balia with existing MP-TCP algorithms.

Our second focus is on designing computationally efficient algorithms for electricity distribution system operation and control. First, we develop efficient algorithms for feeder reconfiguration in distribution networks. The feeder reconfiguration problem chooses the on/off status of the switches in a distribution network in order to minimize a certain cost such as power loss. It is a mixed integer nonlinear program and hence hard to solve. We propose a heuristic algorithm that is based on the recently developed convex relaxation of the optimal power flow problem. The algorithm is efficient and can successfully computes an optimal configuration on all networks that we have tested. Moreover we prove that the algorithm solves the feeder reconfiguration problem optimally under certain conditions. We also propose a more efficient algorithm and it incurs a loss in optimality of less than 3% on the test networks.

Second, we develop efficient distributed algorithms that solve the optimal power flow (OPF) problem on distribution networks. The OPF problem determines a network operating point that minimizes a certain objective such as generation cost or power loss. Traditionally OPF is solved in a centralized manner. With increasing penetration of volatile renewable energy resources in distribution systems, we need faster and distributed solutions for real-time feedback control. This is difficult because power flow equations are nonlinear and kirchhoff's law is global. We propose solutions for both balanced and unbalanced radial distribution networks. They exploit recent results that suggest solving for a globally optimal solution of OPF over a radial network through a second-order cone program (SOCP) or semi-definite program (SDP) relaxation. Our distributed algorithms are based on the alternating direction method of multiplier (ADMM), but unlike standard ADMM-based distributed OPF algorithms that require solving optimization subproblems using iterative methods, the proposed solutions exploit the problem structure that greatly reduce the computation time. Specifically, for balanced networks, our decomposition allows us to derive closed form solutions for these subproblems and it speeds up the convergence by 1000x times in simulations. For unbalanced networks, the subproblems reduce to either closed form solutions or eigenvalue problems whose size remains constant as the network scales up and computation time is reduced by 100x compared with iterative methods.

NEW METHODOLOGY FOR FEEDER RECONFIGURATION IN DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS WITH DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES

This doctoral Thesis defines and develops a new methodology for feeder reconfiguration in distribution networks with Distributed Energy Resources (DER). The proposed methodology is based on metaheuristic Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithms. The methodology is called Item Oriented Ant System (IOAS) and the doctoral Thesis also defines three variations of the original methodology, Item Oriented Ant Colony System (IOACS), Item Oriented Max-min Ant System (IOMMAS) y Item Oriented Max-min Ant Colony System (IOACS). All methodologies pursue a twofold objective, to minimize the power losses and maximize DER penetration in distribution networks. The aim of the variations is to find the algorithm that adapts better to the present optimization problem, solving it most efficiently. The main feature of the methodology lies in the fact that the heuristic information and the exploitation information (pheromone) are attached to the item not to the path. Besides, the doctoral Thesis proposes to use feeder reconfiguration in order to increase the distribution network capacity of accepting a major degree of DER. The proposed methodology and its three variations have been tested and verified in two distribution networks well documented in the existing bibliography. These networks have been modeled and used to test all proposed methodologies for different scenarios with various DER penetration degrees.

Physiological modules for generating discrete and rhythmic movements: action identification by a dynamic recurrent neural network

In this study we employed a dynamic recurrent neural network (DRNN) in a novel fashion to reveal characteristics of control modules underlying the generation of muscle activations when drawing figures with the outstretched arm. We asked healthy human subjects to perform four different figure-eight movements in each of two workspaces (frontal plane and sagittal plane). We then trained a DRNN to predict the movement of the wrist from information in the EMG signals from seven different muscles. We trained different instances of the same network on a single movement direction, on all four movement directions in a single movement plane, or on all eight possible movement patterns and looked at the ability of the DRNN to generalize and predict movements for trials that were not included in the training set. Within a single movement plane, a DRNN trained on one movement direction was not able to predict movements of the hand for trials in the other three directions, but a DRNN trained simultaneously on all four movement directions could generalize across movement directions within the same plane. Similarly, the DRNN was able to reproduce the kinematics of the hand for both movement planes, but only if it was trained on examples performed in each one. As we will discuss, these results indicate that there are important dynamical constraints on the mapping of EMG to hand movement that depend on both the time sequence of the movement and on the anatomical constraints of the musculoskeletal system. In a second step, we injected EMG signals constructed from different synergies derived by the PCA in order to identify the mechanical significance of each of these components. From these results, one can surmise that discrete-rhythmic movements may be constructed from three different fundamental modules, one regulating the co-activation of all muscles over the time span of the movement and two others elliciting patterns of reciprocal activation operating in orthogonal directions.

Modelagem Fuzzy para previsão de uma série temporal de energia elétrica.

Esta dissertação testa e compara dois tipos de modelagem para previsão de uma mesma série temporal. Foi observada uma série temporal de distribuição de energia elétrica e, como estudo de caso, optou-se pela região metropolitana do Estado da Bahia. Foram testadas as combinações de três variáveis exógenas em cada modelo: a quantidade de clientes ligados na rede de distribuição de energia elétrica, a temperatura ambiente e a precipitação de chuvas. O modelo linear de previsão de séries temporais utilizado foi um SARIMAX. A modelagem de inteligência computacional utilizada para a previsão da série temporal foi um sistema de Inferência Fuzzy. Na busca de um melhor desempenho, foram feitos testes de quais variáveis exógenas melhor influenciam no comportamento da energia distribuída em cada modelo. Segundo a avaliação dos testes, o sistema Fuzzy de previsão foi o que obteve o menor erro. Porém dentre os menores erros, os resultados dos testes também indicaram diferentes variáveis exógenas para cada modelo de previsão.

Linking energy policy, electricity generation and transmission using strong sustainability and co-optimization

The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.