Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability

Factor forecasting models are shown to deliver real-time gains over autoregressive models for US real activity variables during the recent period, but are less successful for nominal variables. The gains are largely due to the Financial Crisis period, and are primarily at the shortest (one quarter ahead) horizon. Excluding the pre-Great Moderation years from the factor forecasting model estimation period (but not from the data used to extract factors) results in a marked fillip in factor model forecast accuracy, but does the same for the AR model forecasts. The relative performance of the factor models compared to the AR models is largely unaffected by whether the exercise is in real time or is pseudo out-of-sample.

Reappraisal of the effective elastic thickness for the sub-Andes using 3-D finite element flexural modelling, gravity and geological constraints

P>Estimates of effective elastic thickness (T(e)) for the western portion of the South American Plate using, independently, forward flexural modelling and coherence analysis, suggest different thermomechanical properties for the same continental lithosphere. We present a review of these T(e) estimates and carry out a critical reappraisal using a common methodology of 3-D finite element method to solve a differential equation for the bending of a thin elastic plate. The finite element flexural model incorporates lateral variations of T(e) and the Andes topography as the load. Three T(e) maps for the entire Andes were analysed: Stewart & Watts (1997), Tassara et al. (2007) and Perez-Gussinye et al. (2007). The predicted flexural deformation obtained for each T(e) map was compared with the depth to the base of the foreland basin sequence. Likewise, the gravity effect of flexurally induced crust-mantle deformation was compared with the observed Bouguer gravity. T(e) estimates using forward flexural modelling by Stewart & Watts (1997) better predict the geological and gravity data for most of the Andean system, particularly in the Central Andes, where T(e) ranges from greater than 70 km in the sub-Andes to less than 15 km under the Andes Cordillera. The misfit between the calculated and observed foreland basin subsidence and the gravity anomaly for the Maranon basin in Peru and the Bermejo basin in Argentina, regardless of the assumed T(e) map, may be due to a dynamic topography component associated with the shallow subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the Andes at these latitudes.

The competing roles of extensional viscosity and normal stress differences in complex flows of elastic liquids

In various attempts to relate the behaviour of highly-elastic liquids in complex flows to their rheometrical behaviour, obvious candidates for study have been the variation of shear viscosity with shear rate, the two normal stress differences N(1) and N(2) especially N(1), and the extensional viscosity eta(E). In this paper, we shall be mainly interested in `constant-viscosity` Boger fluids, and, accordingly, we shall limit attention to N(1) and eta(E). We shall concentrate on two important flows - axisymmetric contraction flow and ""splashing"" (particularly that which arises when a liquid drop falls onto the free Surface of the same liquid). Modem numerical techniques are employed to provide the theoretical predictions. It is shown that the two obvious manifestations of viscoelastic rheometrical behaviour can sometimes be opposing influences in determining flow characteristics. Specifically, in an axisymmetric contraction flow, high eta(E) , can retard the flow, whereas high N(1) can have the opposite effect. In the splashing experiment, high eta(E) can certainly reduce the height of the so-called Worthington jet, thus confirming some early suggestions, but, again, other rheometrical influences can also have a role to play and the overall picture may not be as clear as it was once envisaged.

High-frequency extensions of magnetorotational instability in astrophysical plasmas

High-frequency extensions of magnetorotational instability driven by the Velikhov effect beyond the standard magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) regime are studied. The existence of the well-known Hall regime and a new electron inertia regime is demonstrated. The electron inertia regime is realized for a lesser plasma magnetization of rotating plasma than that in the Hall regime. It includes the subregime of nonmagnetized electrons. It is shown that, in contrast to the standard MHD regime and the Hall regime, magnetorotational instability in this subregime can be driven only at positive values of dln Omega/dlnr, where Omega is the plasma rotation frequency and r is the radial coordinate. The permittivity of rotating plasma beyond the standard MHD regime, including both the Hall regime and the electron inertia regime, is calculated.

Contributions to the theory of magnetorotational instability and waves in a rotating plasma

The one-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory of magnetorotational instability (MRI) in an ideal plasma is presented. The theory predicts the possibility of MRI for arbitrary 0, where 0 is the ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic field pressure. The kinetic theory of MRI in a collisionless plasma is developed. It is demonstrated that as in the ideal MHD, MRI can occur in such a plasma for arbitrary P. The mechanism of MRI is discussed; it is shown that the instability appears because of a perturbed parallel electric field. The electrodynamic description of MRI is formulated under the assumption that the dispersion relation is expressed in terms of the permittivity tensor; general properties of this tensor are analyzed. It is shown to be separated into the nonrotational and rotational parts. With this in mind, the first step for incorporation of MRI into the general theory of plasma instabilities is taken. The rotation effects on Alfven waves are considered.

Influence of the halo upon angular distributions for elastic scattering and breakup

The angular distributions for elastic scattering and breakup of halo nuclei are analysed using a near-side/far-side decomposition within the framework of the dynamical eikonal approximation. This analysis is performed for (11)Be impinging on Pb at 69 MeV/nucleon. These distributions exhibit very similar features. In particular they are both near-side dominated, as expected from Coulomb-dominated reactions. The general shape of these distributions is sensitive mostly to the projectile-target interactions, but is also affected by the extension of the halo. This suggests the elastic scattering not to be affected by a loss of flux towards the breakup channel. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Challenging measurement of the (16)O+(27)Al elastic and inelastic angular distributions up to large angles

The (16)O+(27)Al elastic and inelastic angular distributions have been measured in a broad angular range (13 degrees < theta(lab) < 52 degrees) at about 100 MeV incident energy. The use of the MAGNEX large acceptance magnetic spectrometer and of the ray-reconstruction analysis technique has been crucial in order to provide, in the same experiment, high-resolution energy spectra and cross-section measurements distributed over more than seven orders of magnitude down to hundreds of nb/sr. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect on the heavy-ion fusion and elastic scattering cross sections of common approximations assumed in coupled-channel calculations

We study the effects of several approximations commonly used in coupled-channel analyses of fusion and elastic scattering cross sections. Our calculations are performed considering couplings to inelastic states in the context of the frozen approximation, which is equivalent to the coupled-channel formalism when dealing with small excitation energies. Our findings indicate that, in some cases, the effect of the approximations on the theoretical cross sections can be larger than the precision of the experimental data.

Study of (9)Be+(12)C elastic scattering at energies near the Coulomb barrier

In this work, angular distribution measurements for the elastic channel were performed for the (9)Be + (12)C reaction at the energies E(Lab) = 13.0, 14.5, 17.3, 19.0 and 21.0 MeV, near the Coulomb barrier. The data have been analyzed in the framework of the double folding Sao Paulo potential. The experimental elastic scattering angular distributions were well described by the optical potential at forward angles for all measured energies. However, for the three highest energies, an enhancement was observed for intermediate and backward angles. This can be explained by the elastic transfer mechanism. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elastic scattering of a proton-halo nucleus: (8)B+(58)Ni

The elastic channel of the (8)B + (58)Ni system has been measured at energies around the Coulomb barrier. An optical potential fi to the experimental angular distributions is obtained. The total reaction cross section consistent with the obtained potential is reported and possible deviations from normal behaviour are discussed.

Instability of equilibrium points of some Lagrangian systems

In this work we show that, if L is a natural Lagrangian system such that the k-jet of the potential energy ensures it does not have a minimum at the equilibrium and such that its Hessian has rank at least n - 2, then there is an asymptotic trajectory to the associated equilibrium point and so the equilibrium is unstable. This applies, in particular, to analytic potentials with a saddle point and a Hessian with at most 2 null eigenvalues. The result is proven for Lagrangians in a specific form, and we show that the class of Lagrangians we are interested can be taken into this specific form by a subtle change of spatial coordinates. We also consider the extension of this results to systems subjected to gyroscopic forces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Superoxide Dismutase 1-mediated Production of Ethanol- and DNA-derived Radicals in Yeasts Challenged with Hydrogen Peroxide MOLECULAR INSIGHTS INTO THE GENOME INSTABILITY OF PEROXIREDOXIN-NULL STRAINS

Peroxiredoxins are receiving increasing attention as defenders against oxidative damage and sensors of hydrogen peroxide-mediated signaling events. In the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, deletion of one or more isoforms of the peroxiredoxins is not lethal but compromises genome stability by mechanisms that remain under scrutiny. Here, we show that cytosolic peroxiredoxin-null cells (tsa1 Delta tsa2 Delta) are more resistant to hydrogen peroxide than wildtype (WT) cells and consume it faster under fermentative conditions. Also, tsa1 Delta tsa2 Delta cells produced higher yields of the 1-hydroxyethyl radical from oxidation of the glucose metabolite ethanol, as proved by spin-trapping experiments. A major role for Fenton chemistry in radical formation was excluded by comparing WT and tsa1 Delta tsa2 Delta cells with respect to their levels of total and chelatable metal ions and of radical produced in the presence of chelators. The main route for 1-hydroxyethyl radical formation was ascribed to the peroxidase activity of Cu, Zn-superoxide dismutase (Sod1), whose expression and activity increased similar to 5- and 2-fold, respectively, in tsa1 Delta tsa2 Delta compared with WT cells. Accordingly, overexpression of human Sod1 in WT yeasts led to increased 1-hydroxyethyl radical production. Relevantly, tsa1 Delta tsa2 Delta cells challenged with hydrogen peroxide contained higher levels of DNA-derived radicals and adducts as monitored by immuno-spin trapping and incorporation of (14)C from glucose into DNA, respectively. The results indicate that part of hydrogen peroxide consumption by tsa1 Delta tsa2 Delta cells is mediated by induced Sod1, which oxidizes ethanol to the 1-hydroxyethyl radical, which, in turn, leads to increased DNA damage. Overall, our studies provide a pathway to account for the hypermutability of peroxiredoxin-null strains.