Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Intra-Group Competition and Inter-Group Conflict: An Application to Northern Ireland

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflictual settings. The first of these by Cukierman and Tomassi (1998) labeled the ‘information rationale’, argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The second labeled the ‘bargaining rationale’ borrowing from Hamlin and Jennings (2007) agrees with the conventional wisdom that doves are more likely to secure peace, but post-conflict there are good reasons for hawks to be rationally selected. The third found in Jennings and Roelfsema (2008) is labeled the social psychological rationale. This captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity, so can apply to group choices which do not impinge upon bargaining power. As in the bargaining rationale, dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the expressive rationale is discussed which predicts that regardless of the underlying structure of the game (informational, bargaining, psychological) the large group nature of decision-making by making individual decision makers non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions which may be invariant with the mode of group interaction, be it conflictual or peaceful. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation: Pawn or Global Player?,

This contribution aims at exploring the significance of the new generation of UNESCO conventions for the recognition of higher education qualifications. It discusses three possible scenarios and links them to the empirical findings of a study that compares the enabling conditions of the first generation of recognition conventions established in the 1970s and 1980s with the ones establishing the second generation today. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, the paper argues that the changes illustrate a more general shift in the architecture of the global order and highlights a new role of UNESCO.

An HEI-Disaggregated Input-Output Table for Northern-Ireland

This paper describes how the education sector of an Input-Output table for Northern Ireland is disaggregated to identify a separate sector for each of the four Northern Irish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). The process draws on accounting and survey data to accurately determine the incomes and expenditures of each institution. In particular we emphasise determining the HEIs incomes source of origin to inform their treatment, as endogenous or exogenous, in subsequent analyses. The HEI-disaggregated Input-Output table provides a useful descriptive snapshot of the Northern Irish economy and the role of HEIs within it for a particular year, 2006. The table can be used to derive multipliers and conduct various impact studies of each institution or the sector as a whole. The table is furthermore useful to calibrate other multisectoral, HEI-disaggregated models of regional economies, including Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.

ADOS: an educational primary prevention programme for preventing excess body weight in adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of adolescent obesity has increased considerably over the past decade in Switzerland and has become a serious public health problem in Europe. Prevention of obesity using various comprehensive programmes appears to be very promising, although we must admit that several interventions had generally disappointing results compared with the objectives and target initially fixed. Holistic programmes including nutritional education combined with promotion of physical activity and behaviour modification constitute the key factors in the prevention of childhood and adolescent obesity. The purpose of this programme was to incorporate nutrition/physical education as well as psychological aspects in selected secondary schools (9th grade, 14-17 years). METHODS: The educational strategy was based on the development of a series of 13 practical workshops covering wide areas such as physical inactivity, body composition, sugar, energy density, invisible lipids, how to read food labels, is meal duration important? Do you eat with pleasure or not? Do you eat because you are hungry? Emotional eating. For teachers continuing education, a basic highly illustrated guide was developed as a companion booklet to the workshops. These materials were first validated by biology, physical education, dietician and psychologist teachers as well as school medical officers. RESULTS: Teachers considered the practical educational materials innovative and useful, motivational and easy to understand. Up to now (early 2008), the programme has been implemented in 50 classes or more from schools originating from three areas in the French part of Switzerland. Based on the 1-week pedometer value assessed before and after the 1 school-year programme, an initial evaluation indicated that overall physical placidity was significantly decreased as evidenced by a significant rise in the number of steps per day. CONCLUSION: Future evaluation will provide more information on the effectiveness of the ADOS programme.

Out of sight, out of mind? Educational outcomes of children with parents working abroad.

Impact of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children is theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experience and its timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse the question empirically. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of children are affected by parental migration. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that parental employment abroad has a positive immediate impact on a pupil’s grade. Parental education appears pivotal; children of high school graduates benefit most. Longer term effects appear more negative, however, suggesting that a prolonged migration significantly lowers a child’s grade. Interestingly, siblings’ foreign experiences exert a large, positive impact on pupils’ grades.

Educational spillovers and parental migration

Impacts of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children and, in turn, the children’s influence on peers are theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experiences and timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse empirically whether children with parents working abroad (PWA) influence school performance of their classmates. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of all children are affected by parental migration and, on average, 6.5% of pupils in a class have a parent abroad. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that pupils benefit from the presence of PWA classmates. PWA pupils whose parents graduated from high school exert the biggest positive impact on their classroom peers. Further, classmates are differently affected by PWA children; those who themselves experienced migration within the family benefit most. This positive effect is likely driven by the student level interactions or increased teachers’ commitment to classes with students from migrant families.

Violent adolescents and their educational environment : a multilevel analysis ; et, Youths carrying a weapon or using a weapon in a fight : what makes the difference ?

Rapport de synthèse : Cette recherche s'intéresse (1) au port et à l'utilisation d'armes chez les adolescents ainsi que (2) aux rôles des facteurs environnementaux et individuels dans la violence juvénile. Les données étaient tirés de SMASH 2002 (Swiss multicenter adolescent survey on health 2002), étude dans laquelle un échantillon représentatif de 7548 étudiants et apprentis âgés entre 16 et 20 ans vivant en Suisse ont été interrogés Dans une première étude, les adolescents ayant porté une arme (couteau, masse, coup de poing américain, pistolet/autre arme à feu, spray) durant l'année précédant l'enquête étaient comparés avec ceux n'ayant pas porté d'arme. Ensuite, dans le sous-échantillon de porteurs d'armes, ceux ayant uniquement porté l'arme étaient comparés avec ceux ayant utilisé une arme dans une bagarre. Des facteurs individuels, familiaux, scolaires et sociaux ont été étudiés à l'aide d'analyses bivariées et multivariées. 13.7% des jeunes vivant en Suisse ont porté une arme dans l'année précédant l'enquête. 6.2% des filles porteuses d'armes et 19.9% des garçons porteurs d'armes ont fait usage de l'arme dans une bagarre. Chez les garçons et chez les filles, les porteurs d'armes étaient plus souvent délinquants et victimes de violence physique. Les garçons porteurs d'armes étaient plus souvent des apprentis, à la recherche de sensations fortes, porteurs de tatouages, avaient une mauvaise relation avec leurs parents, étaient dans des bagarres sous l'influence de substances, et avaient des relations sexuelles à risque. En comparaison avec les porteuses d'armes, les filles utilisatrices d'armes étaient plus souvent fumeuses quotidiennes. Les garçons ayant utilisé leur arme étaient plus souvent nés à l'étranger, vivaient dans un milieu urbain, étaient des apprentis, avaient un mauvais contexte scolaire, avaient des relations sexuelles à risque et étaient impliqués dans des bagarres sous l'influence de substances. Nos résultats montrent que porter une arme est un comportement relativement fréquent chez les adolescents vivant en Suisse et qu'une proportion non négligeable de ces porteurs d'armes ont utilisé l'arme dans une bagarre. De ce fait, une discussion sur le port d'arme devrait être incluse dans l'entretien clinique ainsi que dans les programmes de prévention visant les adolescents. Dans une deuxième étude, la violence juvénile était définie comme présente si l'adolescent avait commis au moins un des quatre délits suivants durant l'année précédant l'enquête: attaquer un adulte, arracher ou voler quelque chose, porter une arme ou utiliser une arme dans une bagarre. Des niveaux écologiques étaient testés et résultaient en un modèle à trois niveaux pour les garçons (niveau individuel, niveau classe et niveau école) et, à cause d'une faible prévalence de la violence chez les filles, en un modèle à un niveau (individuel) pour les filles. Des variables dépendantes étaient attribuées à chaque niveau, en se basant sur la littérature. Le modèle multiniveaux des garçons montrait que le niveau école (10%) et le niveau classe (24%) comptaient pour plus d'un tiers de la variance inter-individuelle dans le comportement violent. Les facteurs associés à ce comportement chez les filles étaient être victime de violence physique et la recherche de sensations fortes. Pour les garçons, les facteurs explicatifs de la violence étaient pratiquer des relations sexuelles à risque, être à la recherche de sensations fortes, être victime de violence physique, avoir une mauvaise relation avec les parents, être déprimé et vivre dans une famille monoparentale au niveau individuel, la violence et les actes antisociaux au niveau de la classe et être apprenti au niveau de l'école. Des interventions au niveau de la classe ainsi qu'un règlement explicit en ce qui concerne la violence et d'autres comportements à risque dans des écoles devraient être prioritaires pour la prévention de la violence chez les adolescents. En outre, la prévention devrait tenir compte des différences entre les sexes.

Effects of different Incentives on Attrition and Fieldwork Effort in Telephone Household Panel Surveys

Little is known about sample behavior and fieldwork effects of different incentives introduced in a household panel survey. This is especially true for telephone surveys. In a randomized experiment, the Swiss Household Panel implemented one prepaid and two promised nonmonetary incentives in the range of 10 to 15 Swiss Francs (7-10 e), plus a no incentive control group. The aim of the paper is to compare effects of these incentives especially on cooperation, but also on sample selection and fieldwork effort, separated by the household and the subsequent individual level. We find small positive cooperation effects of the prepaid incentive on both the household and the individual level especially in larger households. Sample composition is affected to a very minor extent. Finally, incentives tend to save fieldwork time and partially the number of contacts needed on the individual level.

Attrition of Households and Individuals in Panel Surveys

Attrition is mostly caused by not contacted or refusing sample members. On one hand it is well-known that reasons to attrite due to non-contact are different from those that are due to refusal. On the other hand does non-contact most probably affect household attrition, while refusal can be effective on both households and individuals. In this article, attrition on both the household and (conditional on household participation) the individual level is analysed in three panel surveys from the Cross National Equivalent File (CNEF): the German Socio- Economic Panel (GSOEP), the British Household Panel Study (BHPS), and the Swiss Household Panel (SHP). To follow households over time we use a common rule in all three surveys. First, we find different attrition magnitudes and patterns both across the surveys and also on the household and the individual level. Second, there is more evidence for reinforced rather than compensated household level selection effects if the individual level is also taken into account.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in a Swiss general population: the CoLaus Study

Objective: To assess the prevalence levels of awareness, treatment and control of hypertension and associated factors in Switzerland. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study of 6,182 subjects (52.5% women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or current antihypertensive medication. Results: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 36% (95% CI: 35-38%). Among hypertensive participants, 63% were aware of having hypertension. Among aware hypertensives, 78% were treated, and among treated hypertensives 48% were controlled (BP <140/90 mmHg). In multivariate analysis, prevalence of hypertension was associated with older age, male gender, low educational level, high alcohol intake, awareness of diabetes, awareness of dyslipidaemia, obesity and parental history of myocardial infarction (MI). Awareness of hypertension was associated with older age, female gender, awareness of diabetes, awareness of dyslipidaemia, obesity and parental history of MI. Control was associated with younger age, higher educational level and no alcohol intake. Alone or in combination, sartans were the most often prescribed antihypertensive medication category (41%), followed by diuretics, beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors and calcium channel blockers. Only 31% of treated hypertensives were taking ≥2 antihypertensive medications. Conclusion: Although more than half of the participants with hypertension were aware of being hypertensive and more than three quarters of them received a pharmacological treatment, less than half of those treated were adequately controlled. Treated hypertensive subjects should be followed up more closely.

Parental education and family characteristics: educational opportunities across cohorts in Italy and Spain

Drawing on data contained in the 2005 EU-SILC, this paper investigates the disparities in educational opportunities in Italy and Spain. Its main objective is to analyse the predicted probabilities of successfully completing upper-secondary and tertiary education for individuals with different parental backgrounds, and the changes in these probabilities across birth cohorts extending from 1940 to 1980. The results suggest that the disparities in tertiary education opportunities in Italy tend to increase over time. By contrast, the gap in educational opportunity in Spain shows a marked decrease across the cohorts. Moreover, by using an intuitive decomposition strategy, the paper shows that a large part of the educational gap between individuals of different backgrounds is “composed” of the difference in the endowment of family characteristics. Specifically, it seems that more highly educated parents are more able to endow their children with a better composition of family characteristics, which accounts for a significant proportion of the disparities in educational opportunity.