Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Biodiversity and ecological assessments of Indian sacred groves

Sacred groves are patches of forests preserved for their spiritual and religious significance. The practice gained relevance with the spread of agriculture that caused large-scale deforestation affecting biodiversity and watersheds. Sacred groves may lose their prominence nowadays, but are still relevant in Indian rural landscapes inhabited by traditional communities. The recent rise of interest in this tradition encouraged scientific study that despite its pan-Indian distribution, focused on India's northeast, Western Ghats and east coast either for their global/regional importance or unique ecosystems. Most studies focused on flora, mainly angiosperms, and the faunal studies concentrated on vertebrates while lower life forms were grossly neglected. Studies on ecosystem functioning are few although observations are available. Most studies attributed watershed protection values to sacred groves but hardly highlighted hydrological process or water yield in comparison with other land use types. The grove studies require diversification from a stereotyped path and must move towards creating credible scientific foundations for conservation. Documentation should continue in unexplored areas but more work is needed on basic ecological functions and ecosystem dynamics to strengthen planning for scientifically sound sacred grove management.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

The opportunity for sampling: the ecological context of female mate choice

Female mate choice decisions, which influence sexual selection, involve complex interactions between the 2 sexes and the environment. Theoretical models predict that male movement and spacing in the field should influence female sampling tactics, and in turn, females should drive the evolution of male movement and spacing to sample them optimally. Theoretically, simultaneous sampling of males using the best-of-n or comparative Bayes strategy should yield maximum mating benefits to females. We examined the ecological context of female mate sampling based on acoustic signals in the tree cricket Oecanthus henryi to determine whether the conditions for such optimal strategies were met in the field. These strategies involve recall of the quality and location of individual males, which in turn requires male positions to be stable within a night. Calling males rarely moved within a night, potentially enabling female sampling strategies that require recall. To examine the possibility of simultaneous acoustic sampling of males, we estimated male acoustic active spaces using information on male spacing, call transmission, and female hearing threshold. Males were found to be spaced far apart, and active space overlap was rare. We then examined female sampling scenarios by studying female spacing relative to male acoustic active spaces. Only 15% of sampled females could hear multiple males, suggesting that simultaneous mate sampling is rare in the field. Moreover, the relatively large distances between calling males suggest high search costs, which may favor threshold strategies that do not require memory.

Molecules support morphology: species status of South Indian populations of the widely distributed Hanuman langur

The taxonomy of the Hanuman langur (Semnopithecus spp.), a widely distributed Asian colobine monkey, has been in a flux for a long time due to much disagreement between various classification schemes. However, results from a recent field-based morphological study were consistent with Hill's (Ceylon J Sci 21:277-305, 1939) species level classification scheme. Here we tested the validity of S. hypoleucos and S. priam, the two South Indian species recognized by Hill. To this end, one mitochondrial and four nuclear markers were sequenced from over 72 non-invasive samples of Hanuman langurs and S. johnii collected from across India. The molecular data were subjected to various tree building methods. The nuclear data was also used in a Bayesian structure analysis and to determine the genealogical sorting index of each hypothesized species. Results from nuclear data suggest that the South Indian population of Hanuman langur consists of two units that correspond to the species recognized by Hill. However in the mitochondrial tree S. johnii and S. priam were polyphyletic probably due to retention of ancestral polymorphism and/or low levels of hybridization. Implications of these results on conservation of Hanuman langurs are also discussed.

How should biologists engage with controversial mathematical theory?

Mathematics is beautiful and precise and often necessary to understand complex biological phenomena. And yet biologists cannot always hope to fully understand the mathematical foundations of the theory they are using or testing. How then should biologists behave when mathematicians themselves are in dispute? Using the on-going controversy over Hamilton's rule as an example, I argue that biologists should be free to treat mathematical theory with a healthy dose of agnosticism. In doing so biologists should equip themselves with a disclaimer that publicly admits that they cannot entirely attest to the veracity of the mathematics underlying the theory they are using or testing. The disclaimer will only help if it is accompanied by three responsibilities - stay bipartisan in a dispute among mathematicians, stay vigilant and help expose dissent among mathematicians, and make the biology larger than the mathematics. I must emphasize that my goal here is not to take sides in the on-going dispute over the mathematical validity of Hamilton's rule, indeed my goal is to argue that we should refrain from taking sides.

Recent freshwater Ostracoda and Bivalvia from Indo-Nepal border (Tethys Himalaya): Ecological implications

We report for the first time Recent ostracods and bivalves from Central Tethys Himalaya, collected from Changru village, which is situated in the Tinker valley of northwestern Nepal near the Indo-Nepal border. The specimens were collected from the surface sediments of a small pond, shaped by a small tributary of the glacier fed Tinker River. The ostracod species belonging to the families Ilyocyprididae, Cyprididae and Candonidae and one bivalve (Pisidium sp., Family Pisidiidae) have been identified. Psychrodromus olivaccus and Potamocypris villosa are being reported for the first time from India and Nepal. Several broken and unidentifiable gyrogonites of charophyta were also recovered. The ostracod sample, as a whole, points to a shallow freshwater lake environment influenced by slowly running carbonate rich waters under cool temperatures, low mineralization and sparse vegetation. This is in accordance with the occurrence of Pisidium, which is commonly associated with ostracods in the freshwater lakes and streams. The ostracod fauna shows affinity with the fossil and extant forms recovered from the Higher and Tethys Himalaya of NW India. This opens a new opportunity for studying ostracods in the Indian Central Himalaya - a region which otherwise has been ignored until now.

Primates, Provisioning and Plants: Impacts of Human Cultural Behaviours on Primate Ecological Functions

Human provisioning of wildlife with food is a widespread global practice that occurs in multiple socio-cultural circumstances. Provisioning may indirectly alter ecosystem functioning through changes in the eco-ethology of animals, but few studies have quantified this aspect. Provisioning of primates by humans is known to impact their activity budgets, diets and ranging patterns. Primates are also keystone species in tropical forests through their role as seed dispersers; yet there is no information on how provisioning might affect primate ecological functions. The rhesus macaque is a major human-commensal species but is also an important seed disperser in the wild. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of provisioning on the role of rhesus macaques as seed dispersers in the Buxa Tiger Reserve, India. We studied a troop of macaques which were provisioned for a part of the year and were dependent on natural resources for the rest. We observed feeding behaviour, seed handling techniques and ranging patterns of the macaques and monitored availability of wild fruits. Irrespective of fruit availability, frugivory and seed dispersal activities decreased when the macaques were provisioned. Provisioned macaques also had shortened daily ranges implying shorter dispersal distances. Finally, during provisioning periods, seeds were deposited on tarmac roads that were unconducive for germination. Provisioning promotes human-primate conflict, as commensal primates are often involved in aggressive encounters with humans over resources, leading to negative consequences for both parties involved. Preventing or curbing provisioning is not an easy task as feeding wild animals is a socio-cultural tradition across much of South and South-East Asia, including India. We recommend the initiation of literacy programmes that educate lay citizens about the ill-effects of provisioning and strongly caution them against the practice.

Validity ranges of interfacial wave theories in a two-layer fluid system

In the present paper, we endeavor to accomplish a diagram, which demarcates the validity ranges for interfacial wave theories in a two-layer system, to meet the needs of design in ocean engineering. On the basis of the available solutions of periodic and solitary waves, we propose a guideline as principle to identify the validity regions of the interfacial wave theories in terms of wave period T, wave height H, upper layer thickness d(1), and lower layer thickness d(2), instead of only one parameter-water depth d as in the water surface wave circumstance. The diagram proposed here happens to be Le Mehautes plot for free surface waves if water depth ratio r = d(1)/d(2) approaches to infinity and the upper layer water density rho(1) to zero. On the contrary, the diagram for water surface waves can be used for two-layer interfacial waves if gravity acceleration g in it is replaced by the reduced gravity defined in this study under the condition of sigma = (rho(2) - rho(1))/rho(2) -> 1.0 and r > 1.0. In the end, several figures of the validity ranges for various interfacial wave theories in the two-layer fluid are given and compared with the results for surface waves.

Proposal to permit experimental artificial reefs inside and outside the Big Sycamore Canyon Ecological Reserve

(Document pdf contains 19 pages)

Annotated bibliography on socio-economic and ecological impacts of marine protected areas in Pacific Island countries

The bibliography is to highlight impacts on fisheries and livelihoods attributed to coral reef marine protected areas in Pacific Island countries and territories. Included in this collection is literature that reports various forms of reef area management practiced in Pacific Island countries: reserves, sanctuaries, permanent or temporary closed areas, community and traditional managed areas. (Document contains 36 pages)

Phylogeography and non-invasive landscape genetics of the European pine marten ("martes martes" L. 1758) : insights into ancient and contemporary processes shaping genetic variation

283 p. : graf., map.