Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Spatial and thematic assessment of object- based forest stands delineation using OFA-matrix

Validación de la cartografía generada del terreno a partir de una nuevo sistema de validación propuesto

New selective earth faults only current directional method for isolated neutral systems

In order to achieve total selectivity at electrical distribution networks it is of great importance to analyze the defect currents at ungrounded power systems. This information will help to grant selectivity at electrical distribution networks ensuring that only the defect line or feeder is removed from service. In the present work a new selective and directional protection method for ungrounded power systems is evaluated. The new method measures only defect currents to detect earth faults and works with a directional criterion to determine the line under faulty conditions. The main contribution of this new technique is that it can detect earth faults in outgoing lines at any type of substation avoiding the possible mismatch of traditional directional earth fault relays. This detection technique is based on the comparison of the direction of a reference current to the direction of all earth fault capacitive currents at all the feeders connected to the same bus bars. This new method has been validated through computer simulations. The results for the different cases studied are remarkable, proving total validity and usefulness of the new method.

Rammed earth walls in the late middle age castles in the actual province of Soria, Spain

This paper analyzed the building techniques based in the use of rammed earth in the Late Medieval fortifications in the province of Soria, Spain. The manorial castles of Serón de Nágima and Yanguas were built completely with rammed earth. However, these techinques are different. Through the study of the constructive signals, we can reconstruct the constructive process and made an hypothesis of the auxiliary scaffolding necessary for the construction. After, other four cases in which there is presence of rammed earth are described: Ágreda, Arcos de Jalón, Caracena and the tower of Martín González or castle of La Raya (the Border). Rammed earth is used in some secondary architectural elements and also as a filling of the masonry walls, but somtimes there are ancient rammed earth walls overlaid with stone masonry.

A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Effect of rare earth additions on the critical resolved shear stresses of magnesium alloys

An inverse optimization strategy based on crystal plasticity finite element simulations of polycrystals was used to obtain the critical resolved shear stresses of two Mg?1%Mn alloys containing neodymium from macroscopic experimental data. It was found that, with respect to pure Mg, the presence of Nd increases the CRSSbasal, CRSStwinning, and the CRSSbasal/CRSStwinning ratio and decreases the CRSSnon-basal/CRSStwinning ratio. Additions of neodymium as high as 1 wt% result in similar CRSSs values for all deformation modes and, thus, in an isotropic yielding behavior.

Rocks are human beings: researching the humanizing metaphor in earth science scientific texts

This paper describes a corpus-based analysis of the humanizing metaphor and supports that constitutive metaphor in science and technology may be highly metaphorical and active. The study, grounded in Lakoff’s Theory of Metaphor and in Langacker’s relational networks, consists of two phases: firstly, Earth Science metaphorical terms were extracted from databases and dictionaries and, then, contextualized by means of the “Wordsmith” tool in a digitalized corpus created to establish their productivity. Secondly, the terms were classified to disclose the main conceptual metaphors underlying them; then, the mappings and the relational networks of the metaphor were described. Results confirm the systematicity and productivity of the metaphor in this field, show evidence that metaphoricity of scientific terms is gradable, and support that Earth Science metaphors are not only created in terms of their concrete salient properties and attributes, but also on abstract human anthropocentric projections.