Early Warning System Potential for Single Sourcing Risk Mitigation

Part 17: Risk Analysis

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Detection of Giardia and Cryptosporidium cysts/oocysts in watersheds and drinking water sources in Brazil urban areas

The protozoan parasites Giardia and Cryptosporidium have been described as important waterbone disease pathogens, and are associated with severe gastrointestinal illnesses. The objective of this paper was to investigate the presence of Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts in sample from wtershed catchments and treated water sources. A total of 25 water samples were collected and examined according to the EPA - Method 1623, 2005, consisting of 12 from drinking water and 13 from raw water. Positive samples from raw water for Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts were 46.1 and 7.6%, respectively. In finished water, positive samples were 41.7 per centfor Giardia cysts and 25 per cent for Cryptosporidium oocysts. Concentrations of Giardia cysts found in raw water samples ranged from "not detected" to 0.1oocysts/L, whereas concentrations of Cryptosporidium oocystsranged from "not detected" to 0.1 oocysts/L. In finished water, Giardia concentrations ranged from "not detected" to 0.06 cysts/L, and Cryptosporidium oocysts were not high in the samples analyzed. Nevertheless, the results of this study highlight the need to monitor these organisms in both raw and drinking water.

The development of an early warning system to detect trends in illicit drug use in Australia: The illicit drug reporting-system

Appropriate ways to monitor the availability and use of illicit drugs were examined. Four methods were tested concurrently: (1) a quantitative survey of injecting drug users, (2) a qualitative key informant study of illicit drug users and professionals working in the drug field, (3) examination of existing sources of survey, health and law enforcement data and (4) an ethnographic study of a high risk group of illicit drug users. The first three methods were recommended for inclusion in an ongoing national monitoring system, enabling the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data on a range of illicit drugs in a relatively brief, quick and cost-effective manner. A degree of convergent validity was also noted among these methods, improving the degree of confidence in drug trends. The importance of injecting drug users as a sentinel population of illicit drug users was highlighted, along with optimal methods for qualitative research.

Image calibration to like-values in mapping shallow water quality from multitemporal data

The applicability of image calibration to like-values in mapping water quality parameters from multitemporal images is explored, Six sets of water samples were collected at satellite overpasses over Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Australia. Analysis of these samples reveals that waters in this shallow bay are mostly TSS-dominated, even though they are occasionally dominated by chlorophyll as well. Three of the images were calibrated to a reference image based on invariant targets. Predictive models constructed from the reference image were applied to estimating total suspended sediment (TSS) and Secchi depth from another image at a discrepancy of around 35 percent. Application of the predictive model for TSS concentration to another image acquired at a time of different water types resulted in a discrepancy of 152 percent. Therefore, image calibration to like-values could be used to reliably map certain water quality parameters from multitemporal TM images so long as the water type under study remains unchanged. This method is limited in that the mapped results could be rather inaccurate if the water type under study has changed considerably. Thus, the approach needs to be refined in shallow water from multitemporal satellite imagery.

Environmental impact on the bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies in Lagos, Nigeria

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of town planning, infrastructure, sanitation and rainfall on the bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies. METHODS: Water samples obtained from deep and shallow wells, boreholes and public taps were cultured to determine the most probable number of Escherichia coli and total coliform using the multiple tube technique. Presence of enteric pathogens was detected using selective and differential media. Samples were collected during both periods of heavy and low rainfall and from municipalities that are unique with respect to infrastructure planning, town planning and sanitation. RESULTS: Contamination of treated and pipe distributed water was related with distance of the collection point from a utility station. Faults in pipelines increased the rate of contamination (p<0.5) and this occurred mostly in densely populated areas with dilapidated infrastructure. Wastewater from drains was the main source of contamination of pipe-borne water. Shallow wells were more contaminated than deep wells and boreholes and contamination was higher during period of heavy rainfall (p<0.05). E. coli and enteric pathogens were isolated from contaminated supplies. CONCLUSIONS: Poor town planning, dilapidated infrastructure and indiscriminate siting of wells and boreholes contributed to the low bacteriological quality of domestic water supplies. Rainfall accentuated the impact.

Integration of biomonitoring and instrumental techniques to assess the air quality in an industrial area located in the coastal of Central Asturias, Spain

Throughout the world, epidemiological studies were established to examine the relationship between air pollution and mortality rates and adverse respiratory health effects. However, despite the years of discussion the correlation between adverse health effects and atmospheric pollution remains controversial, partly because these studies are frequently restricted to small and well-monitored areas. Monitoring air pollution is complex due to the large spatial and temporal variations of pollution phenomena, the high costs of recording instruments, and the low sampling density of a purely instrumental approach. Therefore, together with the traditional instrumental monitoring, bioindication techniques allow for the mapping of pollution effects over wide areas with a high sampling density. In this study, instrumental and biomonitoring techniques were integrated to support an epidemiological study that will be developed in an industrial area located in Gijon in the coastal of central Asturias, Spain. Three main objectives were proposed to (i) analyze temporal patterns of PM10 concentrations in order to apportion emissions sources, (ii) investigate spatial patterns of lichen conductivity to identify the impact of the studied industrial area in air quality, and (iii) establish relationships amongst lichen conductivity with some site-specific characteristics. Samples of the epiphytic lichen Parmelia sulcata were transplanted in a grid of 18 by 20 km with an industrial area in the center. Lichens were exposed for a 5-mo period starting in April 2010. After exposure, lichen samples were soaked in 18-MΩ water aimed at determination of water electrical conductivity and, consequently, lichen vitality and cell damage. A marked decreasing gradient of lichens conductivity relative to distance from the emitting sources was observed. Transplants from a sampling site proximal to the industrial area reached values 10-fold higher than levels far from it. This finding showed that lichens reacted physiologically in the polluted industrial area as evidenced by increased conductivity correlated to contamination level. The integration of temporal PM10 measurements and analysis of wind direction corroborated the importance of this industrialized region for air quality measurements and identified the relevance of traffic for the urban area.

Fouling of a drinking water system in relation to hydraulic circumstances and customer complaints

In a “perfect” drinking water system, the water quality for the consumers should be the same as the quality of the water leaving the treatment plant. However, some variability along the system can lead to a decrease in water quality (such as discolouration) which is usually reflected in the number of the customer complaints. This change may be related to the amount of sediment in the distribution network, leading to an increase in turbidity at the water supply. Since there is no such thing as a perfect drinking water system, the behaviour of particles in a drinking water network needs a suitable approach in order to understand how it works. Moreover, the combination of measurements, such as turbidity patterns and the Resuspension Potential Method (RPM) aid in the prevention of discoloured water complaints and intervention in the treatment upgrade or the network cleaning. Besides sediments there is also bacterial regrowth in the network, which is related to the water quality and distribution network characteristics. In a theoretical drinking water system higher velocities, temperature and shorter residences times lead to wider bacterial growth. In this study we observe velocity and residence steady-states and bacterial does not seem to be related to either. It can be concluded that adequate measurements of RPM, customer complaints and bacterial concentrations allow a wider knowledge on particle behaviour in drinking water systems.

World Alzheimer Report 2011 - The benefits of early diagnosis and intervention

Alzheimer's Disease International released the World Alzheimer Report 2011 - The benefits of early diagnosis and intervention on the 13th September 2011. Key Findings:As many as three-quarters of the estimated 36 million people worldwide living with dementia have not been diagnosed and hence cannot benefit from treatment, information and care. In high-income countries, only 20-50% of dementia cases are recognized and documented in primary care. In low- and middle-income countries, this proportion could be as low as 10%.Failure to diagnose often results from the false belief that dementia is a normal part of aging, and that nothing can be done to help. On the contrary, the new report finds that interventions can make a difference, even in the early stages of the illness.Drugs and psychological interventions for people with early-stage dementia can improve cognition, independence, and quality of life. Support and counseling for caregivers can improve mood, reduce strain and delay institutionalization of people with dementia.Governments, concerned about the rising costs of long-term care linked to dementia, should “spend now to save later.” Based on a review of economic analyses, the report estimates that earlier diagnosis could yield net savings of up to US$10,000 per patient in high-income countries.��World Alzheimer Report 2011 - Executive Summary (PDF, 36 pages, 1128KB)World Alzheimer Report 2011 (PDF, 72 pages, 1710KB)����

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Muchakinock Creek: Improving Water Quality for the Future, 2005

History has taken its toll on Muchakinock Creek. A number of problems over the years have led to the stream’s current state, one that’s landed it on Iowa’s list of impaired waters. However, the stream is also full of opportunity. The opportunity to improve water quality not only for the aquatic life and wildlife that live there, but also to pass along clean water to future generations of Iowans. But to act on this opportunity, we need your help.