Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple approach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each cyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation reduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones and a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected Mediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a decrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the contribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they amplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of cyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some of the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation intensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are investigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread.

The importance of accurate wind resource assessment for evaluating the economic viability of small wind turbines

The techno-economic performance of a small wind turbine is very sensitive to the available wind resource. However, due to financial and practical constraints installers rely on low resolution wind speed databases to assess a potential site. This study investigates whether the two site assessment tools currently used in the UK, NOABL or the Energy Saving Trust wind speed estimator, are accurate enough to estimate the techno-economic performance of a small wind turbine. Both the tools tend to overestimate the wind speed, with a mean error of 23% and 18% for the NOABL and Energy Saving Trust tool respectively. A techno-economic assessment of 33 small wind turbines at each site has shown that these errors can have a significant impact on the estimated load factor of an installation. Consequently, site/turbine combinations which are not economically viable can be predicted to be viable. Furthermore, both models tend to underestimate the wind resource at relatively high wind speed sites, this can lead to missed opportunities as economically viable turbine/site combinations are predicted to be non-viable. These results show that a better understanding of the local wind resource is a required to make small wind turbines a viable technology in the UK.

Geoadditive models for regional count data: an application to industrial location

We propose a geoadditive negative binomial model (Geo-NB-GAM) for regional count data that allows us to address simultaneously some important methodological issues, such as spatial clustering, nonlinearities, and overdispersion. This model is applied to the study of location determinants of inward greenfield investments that occurred during 2003–2007 in 249 European regions. After presenting the data set and showing the presence of overdispersion and spatial clustering, we review the theoretical framework that motivates the choice of the location determinants included in the empirical model, and we highlight some reasons why the relationship between some of the covariates and the dependent variable might be nonlinear. The subsequent section first describes the solutions proposed by previous literature to tackle spatial clustering, nonlinearities, and overdispersion, and then presents the Geo-NB-GAM. The empirical analysis shows the good performance of Geo-NB-GAM. Notably, the inclusion of a geoadditive component (a smooth spatial trend surface) permits us to control for spatial unobserved heterogeneity that induces spatial clustering. Allowing for nonlinearities reveals, in keeping with theoretical predictions, that the positive effect of agglomeration economies fades as the density of economic activities reaches some threshold value. However, no matter how dense the economic activity becomes, our results suggest that congestion costs never overcome positive agglomeration externalities.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Do Different Models of Integration Affect Actual Integration? The Cases of France and Great Britain Revisited

Britain and France adapted two different integration models, namely assimilationist and multiculturalism to integrate their immigrants. These two big models of integration have distinctive characteristics to integrate immigrants. There is a general claim that multiculturalism model is the best for integrating immigrants in terms of actual integration, however, some argue the opposite, that French assimilationist model is ‘better off.’ This study examines these controversial claims by looking at the level to which immigrants are integrated in economic, social, political, cultural dimensions of integration and attitudes towards immigrants in Britain and France. Within a given theoretical framework, this study compares the overall competency level of immigrants’ integration in terms of actual integration between British multiculturalism model and French assimilationist model and validate that both these two big models of integration have reached a comparable level of integration and they do not have any decisive impact on actual integration.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Rural women and local economic development in south-west Victoria

In the 1990s, the appearance of women in leadership roles in local economic development organisations in small south-west Victorian towns heralded a change in gender relations in rural Australia. This paper contributes to an understanding of this process by investigating the actions and motives of women in leadership roles in small rural towns in south-west Victoria. The paper begins by establishing a framework of analysis based upon a notion of ‘paradigms in progress’. The argument is that in an increasingly interconnected world broader economic, social and political concerns encroach upon local cultures. In this process, older social paradigms or popularly accepted models for how the world works are either transformed, discarded or replaced on different levels. The different levels to which this paper refers are the macromodels of patriarchy, the mesomodels of economic development and the micromodels of leadership. It is the way that these levels intersect and how they are being changed that informs the explanation of women and leadership in south-west Victoria. The paper applies this framework to an analysis of interviews with 15 women in small towns in south-west Victoria. The paper concludes that women in the south-west have been able both to feminise the politics of local economic development as well as reposition the feminine in local social discourses.

Living precariously: the struggle for social and economic citizenship

The central relationship between the labour market and citizenship in Australia is highlighted thus engaging with the broader issued of risk and security, inclusion and exclusion rights and freedoms. There has been a recent shift from social liberal models of industrial and economic citizenship to individualised market models.

Economic evaluation of Australian stroke services: a prospective, multicenter study comparing dedicated stroke units with other care modalities

Background and Purpose: Level I evidence from randomized controlled trials demonstrates that the model of hospital care influences stroke outcomes; however, the economic evaluation of such is limited. An economic appraisal of 3 acute stroke care models was facilitated through the Stroke Care Outcomes: Providing Effective Services (SCOPES) study in Melbourne, Australia. The aim was to describe resource use up to 28 weeks poststroke for each model and examine the cost-effectiveness of stroke care units (SCUs). Methods: A prospective, multicenter, cohort study design was used. Costs and outcomes of stroke patients receiving 100% treatment in 1 of 3 inpatient care models (SCUs, mobile service, conventional care) were compared. Health-sector resource use up to 28 weeks was measured in 1999. Outcomes were thorough adherence to a suite of important clinical processes and the number of severe inpatient complications. Results: The sample comprised 395 participants (mean age 73 [SD 14], 77% first-ever strokes, males 53%). When compared with conventional care (n=84), costs for mobile service (n=209) were significantly higher (P=0.024), but borderline for SCU (n=102, P=0.08; $AUD12 251; $AUD15 903; $AUD15 383 respectively). This was primarily explained by the greater use of specialist medical services. The incremental cost-effectiveness of SCUs over conventional care was $AUD9867 per patient achieving thorough adherence to clinical processes and $AUD16 372 per patient with severe complications avoided, based on costs to 28 weeks. Conclusions: Although acute SCU costs are generally higher, they are more cost-effective than either mobile service or conventional care.

Should we save or should we consume? Linking growth theories and the Keynesian models

In major economic growth theories, high saving rate gives rise to high level of output per capita. But in Keynesian economics, high saving rate causes low consumption and will lead the economy into recession. Students may ask, "For the well-being of an economy, should we save or should we consume?" In most of the intermediate macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are taught in separate chapters; and in many cases, these chapters are not even successive to each other. There lacks a continuity between the long run and short run models. This paper builds a bridge between growth theories and Keynesian models. It links the Solow diagram and the IS-LM curves and depicts the short run and long run implications of a change in the saving rate.

Democracy and economic growth : a meta-analysis

Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth. This article challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship through a quantitative assessment of the democracy-growth literature. It applies meta-regression analysis to the population of 483 estimates derived from 84 studies on democracy and growth. Using traditional meta-analysis estimators, the bootstrap, and Fixed and Random Effects meta-regression models, it derives several robust conclusions. Taking all the available published evidence together, it concludes that democracy does not have a direct impact on economic growth. However, democracy has robust, significant, and positive indirect effects through higher human capital, lower inflation, lower political instability, and higher levels of economic freedom. Democracies may also be associated with larger governments and less free international trade. There also appear to be country- and region-specific democracy-growth effects. Overall, democracy's net effect on the economy does not seem to be detrimental.

How socio-economic status contributes to participation in leisure-time physical activity

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify individual, social, and environmental contributors (mediators) to individual- and area-level differences in leisure-time physical activity across socio-economic groups. A two-stage stratified sampling design was used to recruit 20–65 year old adults (N = 2194) living in 154 census collection districts of Adelaide, Australia (overall response rate: 12%). Participants completed two surveys six months apart (response rate on the second survey: 83%). Individual-level socio-economic status (SES) was assessed using self-report measures on educational attainment, household income, and household size. Area-level SES was assessed using census data on median household income and household size for each selected census district. Bootstrap generalized linear models were used to examine associations between SES, potential mediators, and leisure-time physical activity. The product-of-coefficient test was used to estimate mediating effects. All SES measures were independently associated with potential individual and social mediators of the SES-activity relationships. Individual- and area-level income was also associated with perceived neighborhood attributes. Self-efficacy and social support for physical activity explained virtually all of the differences in physical activity across educational attainment groups. Physical barriers to walking and access to public open space contributed in part to the explanation of differences in recreational walking across income groups. Yet, self-efficacy and social support were the key mediators of the observed relationships between individual- and area-level income and physical activity. This study suggests that in order to increase physical activity participation in the more disadvantaged segments of the population, comprehensive, multilevel interventions targeting activity-related attitudes and skills as well as social and physical environments are needed.

Are nominal exchange rates and price levels co-integrated? new evidence from threshold autoregressive and momentum-threshold autoregressive models

The goal of this paper is to examine evidence for co-integration between nominal exchange rates for Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, Italy and France (G6) vis-à-vis the US dollar, and the relative price ratios using monthly data over the period 1973:01 to 1997:04. Motivated by the fact that exchange rate adjustment may be asymmetric, we allowed for asymmetric adjustment in exchange rates by using the threshold autoregressive model and the momentum threshold autoregressive model. We do not find any evidence of a co-integrating relationship; hence, we fail to establish long-run purchasing power parity.