A random linear functional approach to efficiency bounds

This paper suggests a method for obtaining efficiency bounds in models containing either only infinite-dimensional parameters or both finite- and infinite-dimensional parameters (semiparametric models). The method is based on a theory of random linear functionals applied to the gradient of the log-likelihood functional and is illustrated by computing the lower bound for Cox's regression model

Univariate versus multivariate modeling of panel data

Panel data can be arranged into a matrix in two ways, called 'long' and 'wide' formats (LFand WF). The two formats suggest two alternative model approaches for analyzing paneldata: (i) univariate regression with varying intercept; and (ii) multivariate regression withlatent variables (a particular case of structural equation model, SEM). The present papercompares the two approaches showing in which circumstances they yield equivalent?insome cases, even numerically equal?results. We show that the univariate approach givesresults equivalent to the multivariate approach when restrictions of time invariance (inthe paper, the TI assumption) are imposed on the parameters of the multivariate model.It is shown that the restrictions implicit in the univariate approach can be assessed bychi-square difference testing of two nested multivariate models. In addition, commontests encountered in the econometric analysis of panel data, such as the Hausman test, areshown to have an equivalent representation as chi-square difference tests. Commonalitiesand differences between the univariate and multivariate approaches are illustrated usingan empirical panel data set of firms' profitability as well as a simulated panel data.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Three essays in dynamic corporate finance

The three essays constituting this thesis focus on financing and cash management policy. The first essay aims to shed light on why firms issue debt so conservatively. In particular, it examines the effects of shareholder and creditor protection on capital structure choices. It starts by building a contingent claims model where financing policy results from a trade-off between tax benefits, contracting costs and agency costs. In this setup, controlling shareholders can divert part of the firms' cash ows as private benefits at the expense of minority share- holders. In addition, shareholders as a class can behave strategically at the time of default leading to deviations from the absolute priority rule. The analysis demonstrates that investor protection is a first order determinant of firms' financing choices and that conflicts of interests between firm claimholders may help explain the level and cross-sectional variation of observed leverage ratios. The second essay focuses on the practical relevance of agency conflicts. De- spite the theoretical development of the literature on agency conflicts and firm policy choices, the magnitude of manager-shareholder conflicts is still an open question. This essay proposes a methodology for quantifying these agency conflicts. To do so, it examines the impact of managerial entrenchment on corporate financing decisions. It builds a dynamic contingent claims model in which managers do not act in the best interest of shareholders, but rather pursue private benefits at the expense of shareholders. Managers have discretion over financing and dividend policies. However, shareholders can remove the manager at a cost. The analysis demonstrates that entrenched managers restructure less frequently and issue less debt than optimal for shareholders. I take the model to the data and use observed financing choices to provide firm-specific estimates of the degree of managerial entrenchment. Using structural econometrics, I find costs of control challenges of 2-7% on average (.8-5% at median). The estimates of the agency costs vary with variables that one expects to determine managerial incentives. In addition, these costs are sufficient to resolve the low- and zero-leverage puzzles and explain the time series of observed leverage ratios. Finally, the analysis shows that governance mechanisms significantly affect the value of control and firms' financing decisions. The third essay is concerned with the documented time trend in corporate cash holdings by Bates, Kahle and Stulz (BKS,2003). BKS find that firms' cash holdings double from 10% to 20% over the 1980 to 2005 period. This essay provides an explanation of this phenomenon by examining the effects of product market competition on firms' cash holdings in the presence of financial constraints. It develops a real options model in which cash holdings may be used to cover unexpected operating losses and avoid inefficient closure. The model generates new predictions relating cash holdings to firm and industry characteristics such as the intensity of competition, cash flow volatility, or financing constraints. The empirical examination of the model shows strong support of model's predictions. In addition, it shows that the time trend in cash holdings documented by BKS can be at least partly attributed to a competition effect.

How Do Aggregate Fluctuations Depend on the Network Structure of the Economy?

[spa] En este artículo, analizamos la volatilidad agregada de una economía estilizada donde los agentes estann conectados en redes. Si hay relaciones estratégicas entre las acciones de los agentes, choques idiosincráticos pueden generar fluctuaciones agregadas. Demonstramos que la volatilidad agregada depende de la estructura de redes de la economía de dos maneras. Por un lado, si hay más conexiones en la economía en su conjunto, la volatilidad agregada es más baja. Por otro lado, si las conexiones están más concentradas, la volatilidad agregada es más alta. Presentamos una aplicación de nuestras predicciones teóricas que utiliza datos de EEUU de conexiones intrasectoriales y de diversificación de las empresas.

How Do Aggregate Fluctuations Depend on the Network Structure of the Economy?

[spa] En este artículo, analizamos la volatilidad agregada de una economía estilizada donde los agentes estann conectados en redes. Si hay relaciones estratégicas entre las acciones de los agentes, choques idiosincráticos pueden generar fluctuaciones agregadas. Demonstramos que la volatilidad agregada depende de la estructura de redes de la economía de dos maneras. Por un lado, si hay más conexiones en la economía en su conjunto, la volatilidad agregada es más baja. Por otro lado, si las conexiones están más concentradas, la volatilidad agregada es más alta. Presentamos una aplicación de nuestras predicciones teóricas que utiliza datos de EEUU de conexiones intrasectoriales y de diversificación de las empresas.

Las consecuencias del Boom inmobiliario. Cambios en la densidad de las metrópolis españolas, 2001-2007

Después de un período de crecimiento urbanístico desorbitado es oportuno hacer un primer balance de las consecuencias que este hecho ha tenido sobre la estructura espacial de las principales urbes españolas. Un elemento básico de análisis es las variaciones que se han operado sobre la densidad de población. En el presente artículo se estudian estas transformaciones mediante modelos econométricos de densidad urbana. Las metrópolis investigadas son Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Bilbao y Zaragoza y el periodo temporal abarca desde 2001 a 2007. Los resultados indican, para las metrópolis más pobladas, cambios significativos en los parámetros, y en dos casos en la propia forma funcional de la densidad.

En respuesta a la ONU : ¿Es el fútbol un indicador del progreso y desarrollo en la esfera internacional?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

En respuesta a la ONU : ¿Es el fútbol un indicador del progreso y desarrollo en la esfera internacional?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

En respuesta a la ONU : ¿Es el fútbol un indicador del progreso y desarrollo en la esfera internacional?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

Wage inequality and economic growth in Mexican regions

Only a few studies have analysed the relationship between intraregional inequality and growth, although several studies have measured inequality at the regional level. The objective of this paper is to analyse the relationship between income (wage) inequality and economic growth in different regions of Mexico. We also try to identify factors that explain the variation of intra-regional inequality across Mexican regions and over time. Using macroeconomic databases and publicly available microdata, we apply techniques used in the fields of statistics and econometrics to obtain robust evidence on the relationship between growth and inequality. Our aim is to provide policy recommendations to support the design and implementation of growth-promoting measures thatavoid the exclusion of certain social groups. This paper provides reasons to use a spatial approach and an analysis of particular regions to avoid «one size fits all» policy recommendations.

On the dynamics of exports and FDI: The Spanish Internationalization Process

This paper provides further insights into the dynamics of exports and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Spain from a time-series approach. The contribution of the paper is twofold: 1) the existence of either substitution or a complementary relationship between Spanish outward investments and exports is empirically tested using a multivariate cointegrated model (VECM). The evolution in exchange flows (1993-2008) and country-specific variables (such as world demand - including Spain’s main recently growing foreign markets - for trade flows and the relative price of exports in order to proxy new global competitors) are taken into account for the first time. And 2) the growth in the trade of services in recent decades leads us to test a specific causality relationship by disaggregating between goods and services flows. Our results provide evidence of a positive (Granger) causality relationship running from FDI to exports of goods (stronger) and to exports of services (weaker) in the long run, the complementarity relation of which is consistent with vertical FDI strategies. In the short run, however, only exports of goods are affected (positively) by FDIs.

Research networks and inventors’ mobility as drivers of innovation evidence from Europe

We investigate the importance of the labour mobility of inventors, as well as the scale, extent and density of their collaborative research networks, for regional innovation outcomes. To do so, we apply a knowledge production function framework at the regional level and include inventors’ networks and their labour mobility as regressors. Our empirical approach takes full account of spatial interactions by estimating a spatial lag model together, where necessary, with a spatial error model. In addition, standard errors are calculated using spatial heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent estimators to ensure their robustness in the presence of spatial error autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Our results point to the existence of a robust positive correlation between intraregional labour mobility and regional innovation, whilst the relationship with networks is less clear. However, networking across regions positively correlates with a region’s innovation intensity.