A simplified mathematical model for urban microclimate simulation

Techniques for modelling urban microclimates and urban block surfaces temperatures are desired by urban planners and architects for strategic urban designs at the early design stages. This paper introduces a simplified mathematical model for urban simulations (UMsim) including urban surfaces temperatures and microclimates. The nodal network model has been developed by integrating coupled thermal and airflow model. Direct solar radiation, diffuse radiation, reflected radiation, long-wave radiation, heat convection in air and heat transfer in the exterior walls and ground within the complex have been taken into account. The relevant equations have been solved using the finite difference method under the Matlab platform. Comparisons have been conducted between the data produced from the simulation and that from an urban experimental study carried out in a real architectural complex on the campus of Chongqing University, China in July 2005 and January 2006. The results show a satisfactory agreement between the two sets of data. The UMsim can be used to simulate the microclimates, in particular the surface temperatures of urban blocks, therefore it can be used to assess the impact of urban surfaces properties on urban microclimates. The UMsim will be able to produce robust data and images of urban environments for sustainable urban design.

The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output for the simulation of alpine permafrost scenarios. It focuses on the general problem of scale mismatch between RCMs and impact models and, in particular, the special challenges that arise when driving an impact model in topographically complex high-mountain environments with the output of an RCM. Two approaches are introduced that take into account the special difficulties in such areas, and thus enable the use of RCM for alpine permafrost scenario modelling. Intended as an initial example, they are applied at the area of Corvatsch (Upper Engadine, Switzerland) in order to demonstrate and discuss the application of the two approaches, rather than to provide an assessment of future changes in permafrost occurrence. There are still many uncertainties and inaccuracies inherent in climate and impact models, which increase when driving one model with the output of the other. Nevertheless, our study shows that the use of RCMs offers new and promising perspectives for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability

Instrumental observations, palaeo-proxies, and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). However, a poorly sampled observational record and a diversity of model behaviours mean that the precise nature and mechanisms of this variability are unclear. Here, we analyse an exceptionally large multi-model ensemble of 42 present-generation climate models to test whether NASPG mean state biases systematically affect the representation of decadal variability. Temperature and salinity biases in the Labrador Sea co-vary and influence whether density variability is controlled by temperature or salinity variations. Ocean horizontal resolution is a good predictor of the biases and the location of the dominant dynamical feedbacks within the NASPG. However, we find no link to the spectral characteristics of the variability. Our results suggest that the mean state and mechanisms of variability within the NASPG are not independent. This represents an important caveat for decadal predictions using anomaly-assimilation methods.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Multidrug-resistant Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli in dogs with diarrhea

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Increase on incineration capacity and NOx control for air enrichment in the experimental simulation of aqueous residue incineration

An experimental investigation of air enrichment in a combustion chamber designed to incinerate aqueous residues is presented. Diesel fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) were used independently as fuels. An increase of 85% in the incineration capacity was obtained with nearly 50% O-2 in the oxidant gas, in comparison to incineration with air only. The incineration capacity continues increasing for enrichment levels above 50% O-2 , although at a lower pace. For complete oxy-flame combustion (100% O-2 ), the increase of the incineration capacity was about 110% relative to the starting conditions and about 13.5% relative to the condition with 50% O-2 . The CO concentration measured near the flame front decreases drastically with the increase of O-2 content in the oxidant gas. At the chamber exit, the CO concentration was always near zero, indicating that the chamber residence time was sufficient to complete fuel oxidation in any test setting. For diesel fuel, the NOx was entirely formed in the first region of the combustion chamber. For diesel fuel, there was some increase in the NOx concentration up to 35% of O-2 ; this increase became very sharp after that. From 60 ppm, at operation with air only, the NOx concentration raises to 200 ppm at 35% O-2 , and then to 2900 ppm at 74% O-2 . The latter corresponds to six times more NOx in terms of the ratio of mass of NO to mass of residue, compared to the situation of combustion with air only. For LPG, the NOx concentrations reached 4200 ppm at 80% O-2 , corresponding to nine times more, also in terms of the ratio of mass of NO to mass of residue, in comparison with combustion with air only. Results of different techniques used to control the NOx emission during air enrichment are discussed: (a) variation of the recirculated zone intensity, (b) increase of the spray Sauter mean diameter, (c) fuel staging, (d) oxidizer staging, and (e) ammonia injection. The present paper shows that NOx emission may be controlled without damage of the increase of incineration capacity by the enrichment and with low emission of partial oxidation pollutants such as CO.

Modification of the industrialization model in Latin America

Esboza los trazos principales de interpretacion del proceso de industrializacion desde la decada de los anos 30 hasta el presente. Aborda el tema central de la transformacion del modelo hasta ahora predominante de industrializacion. Propone una estrategia industrial basada en el crecimiento hacia adentro, mediante la creacion de industrias de bienes de capital y de consumo masivo, la continuacion del proceso de sustitucion selectiva de importaciones, el establecimiento de criterios claros de division del trabajo dentro de la region, y la aplicacion de una politica selectiva y dinamica de insercion en los mercados de los paises centrales.