Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Highlights of drought policy and related science in Australia and the USA

Patterns of water supply and use in Australia and the U.S.A. differ in many ways. This results in different perceptions concerning the nature of drought and policy approaches to its management. This paper discusses the differences and similarities and explores lessons that policy makers in both countries can learn from one another. A key difference between the two countries is that whereas drought is perceived in Australia essentially in terms of its impact on agriculture, in the U.S. both perceptions and policy are also heavily influenced by the impact of drought on urban communities. This has led to different policy emphases. In 1992 Australia established its National Drought Policy; the U.S. is presently considering the adoption of a national drought policy. These policies highlight drought being accepted as part of natural climate variability, rather than as a natural disaster. They also emphasize the protection of the natural resource base.

The Role of Non-Market Valuation in Forest Management and Recreation Policy

Forests, and particularly those where native and mixed species are gown, provide a variety of non-wood values, important among which are recreation and environmental services. Substantial progress has been made in recent years in estimating economic values on these services. A considerable amount of research on forest values has been carried out recently in tropical and sub-tropical eastern Australia, some of which is reported in the following papers. The need for estimates of non-wood forest benefits is apparent, and it is clear that further development of techniques and a greater understanding of the way these values can be integrated into public-sector decision making is required.

Body size and latitudinal gradients in regional diversity of New World birds

Axe latitudinal gradients in regional diversity random or biased with respect to body size? Using data for the New World avifauna, I show that the slope of the increase in regional species richness from the Arctic to the equator is not independent of body size. The increase is steepest among small and medium-sized species, and shallowest among the largest species. This is reflected in latitudinal variation in the shape of frequency distributions of body sizes in regional subsets of the New World avifauna. Because species are added disproportionately in small and medium size classes towards low latitudes, distributions become less widely spread along the body size axis than expected from the number of species. These patterns suggest an interaction between the effects of latitude and body size on species richness, implying that mechanisms which vary with both latitude and body size may be important determinants of high tropical diversity in New World birds.

The life-history basis of latitudinal diversity gradients: how do species traits vary from the poles to the equator.

1. Latitudinal variation among species in life-history traits is often suggested to contribute to high tropical species richness. However, traditional methods of analysing such variation rarely control for phylogeny and latitudinal range overlap between species, potentially giving misleading results. 2. Using a method of pairwise independent contrasts which overcomes these problems, I tested for latitudinal variation among bird species in a number of traits which have been linked, theoretically or empirically, with both latitude and species richness. 3. This method indicates strong support for Rapoport's Rule and decreasing clutch size towards the equator in both hemispheres, but only partial support for decreasing body size and ecological generalism towards the equator. 4. Indirect measures of sexual selection (sexual dichromatism and size dimorphism) show no variation with latitude; an apparent increase in dichromatism towards the equator is shown to be an artefact of phylogeny. 5. Many of the associations between life history and latitude were not detected by traditional cross-species analyses, highlighting the importance of incorporating phylogeny and overlap in studies of geographical life-history variation. Establishing associations between life-history traits and latitude does not prove, but is a necessary prerequisite for., a link between these traits and latitudinal diversity gradients.

Comparative analysis of genetic diversity in the mangrove species Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. (Avicenniaceae) detected by AFLPs and SSRs

Avicennia marina is an important mangrove species with a wide geographical and climatic distribution which suggests that large amounts of genetic diversity are available for conservation and breeding programs. In this study we compare the informativeness of AFLPs and SSRs for assessing genetic diversity within and among individuals, populations and subspecies of A. marina in Australia. Our comparison utilized three SSR loci and three AFLP primer sets that were known to be polymorphic, and could be run in a single analysis on a capillary electrophoresis system, using different-colored fluorescent dyes. A total of 120 individuals representing six populations and three subspecies were samplcd. At the locus level, SSRs were considerably more variable than AFLPs, with a total of 52 alleles and an average heterozygosity of 0.78. Average heterozygosity for AFLPs was 0.193, but all of the 918 bands scored were polymorphic. Thus, AFLPs were considerably more efficient at revealing polymorphic loci than SSRs despite lower average heterozygosities. SSRs detected more genetic differentiation between populations (19 vs 9%) and subspecies (35 vs 11%) than AFLPs. Principal co-ordinate analysis revealed congruent patterns of genetic relationships at the individual, population and subspecific levels for both data sets. Mantel testing confirmed congruence between AFLP and SSR genetic distances among, but not within, population comparisons, indicating that the markers were segregating inde- pendently but that evolutionary groups (populations and subspecies) were similar. Three genetic criteria of importance for defining priorities for ex situ collections or in situ conservation programs (number of alleles, number of locally common alleles and number of private alleles) were correlated between the AFLP and SSR data sets. The congruence between AFLP and SSR data sets suggest that either method, or a combination, is applicable to expanded genetic studies of mangroves. The codominant nature of SSRs makes them ideal for further population-based investigations, such as mating-system analyses, for which the dominant AFLP markers are less well suited. AFLPs may be particularly useful for monitoring propagation programs and identifying duplicates within collections, since a single PCR assay can reveal many loci at once.

Identity and genetic diversity of the sorghum ergot pathogen in Australia

Sorghum ergot was first discovered in Australia in 1996. It affects seed production and grain usage in stock feed due to concerns of animal toxicity. Three species of Claviceps are known to cause ergot of sorghum with different epidemiological, animal toxicity, and management implications. Claviceps africana was identified as the causal agent but morphological differences between isolates raised the possibility of more than one species being involved. The major aim of this study was to identify the Claviceps species causing sorghum ergot and to determine the genetic diversity among isolates of the ergot pathogen from Australia and overseas. Symptom development, sequencing of the ITS1 region, and radiolabelled DNA amplification fingerprints (RAF) were used to confirm that ergot of sorghum in Australia is caused by C. africana. The morphology of sphacelia, microconidia, macroconidia, and secondary conidia of all 36 Australian isolates studied matched the description for C. africana and the DNA sequence of the ITS1 region of 2 selected Australian isolates was identical to that of C. africana. Based on RAF analysis of 110 Australian and overseas isolates of Claviceps spp., C. africana isolates could be clearly distinguished (