Variational Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear diffusions

In this paper we develop set of novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian smoothing of partially observed non-linear diffusion processes. The sampling algorithms developed herein use a deterministic approximation to the posterior distribution over paths as the proposal distribution for a mixture of an independence and a random walk sampler. The approximating distribution is sampled by simulating an optimized time-dependent linear diffusion process derived from the recently developed variational Gaussian process approximation method. The novel diffusion bridge proposal derived from the variational approximation allows the use of a flexible blocking strategy that further improves mixing, and thus the efficiency, of the sampling algorithms. The algorithms are tested on two diffusion processes: one with double-well potential drift and another with SINE drift. The new algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is compared with state-of-the-art hybrid Monte Carlo based path sampling. It is shown that in practical, finite sample applications the algorithm is accurate except in the presence of large observation errors and low to a multi-modal structure in the posterior distribution over paths. More importantly, the variational approximation assisted sampling algorithm outperforms hybrid Monte Carlo in terms of computational efficiency, except when the diffusion process is densely observed with small errors in which case both algorithms are equally efficient. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Multi-threaded parallel simulation of non-local non-linear problems in ultrashort laser pulse propagation in the presence of plasma

We describe a parallel multi-threaded approach for high performance modelling of wide class of phenomena in ultrafast nonlinear optics. Specific implementation has been performed using the highly parallel capabilities of a programmable graphics processor. © 2011 SPIE.

The non-linear acousto-mechanical and thermodynamic response of spherical absorbers to laser pulses of various temporal profiles

This study is to theoretically investigate shockwave and microbubble formation due to laser absorption by microparticles and nanoparticles. The initial motivation for this research was to understand the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for laser damage to the retina, as well as the predict threshold levels for damage for laser pulses with of progressively shorter durations. The strongest absorbers in the retina are micron size melanosomes, and their absorption of laser light causes them to accrue very high energy density. I theoretically investigate how this absorbed energy is transferred to the surrounding medium. For a wide range of conditions I calculate shockwave generation and bubble growth as a function of the three parameters; fluence, pulse duration and pulse shape. In order to develop a rigorous physical treatment, the governing equations for the behavior of an absorber and for the surrounding medium are derived. Shockwave theory is investigated and the conclusion is that a shock pressure explanation is likely to be the underlying physical cause of retinal damage at threshold fluences for sub-nanosecond pulses. The same effects are also expected for non-biological micro and nano absorbers. ^

A non-linear discrete stochastic optimization model for Advanced Access patient appointment scheduling

Access to healthcare is a major problem in which patients are deprived of receiving timely admission to healthcare. Poor access has resulted in significant but avoidable healthcare cost, poor quality of healthcare, and deterioration in the general public health. Advanced Access is a simple and direct approach to appointment scheduling in which the majority of a clinic's appointments slots are kept open in order to provide access for immediate or same day healthcare needs and therefore, alleviate the problem of poor access the healthcare. This research formulates a non-linear discrete stochastic mathematical model of the Advanced Access appointment scheduling policy. The model objective is to maximize the expected profit of the clinic subject to constraints on minimum access to healthcare provided. Patient behavior is characterized with probabilities for no-show, balking, and related patient choices. Structural properties of the model are analyzed to determine whether Advanced Access patient scheduling is feasible. To solve the complex combinatorial optimization problem, a heuristic that combines greedy construction algorithm and neighborhood improvement search was developed. The model and the heuristic were used to evaluate the Advanced Access patient appointment policy compared to existing policies. Trade-off between profit and access to healthcare are established, and parameter analysis of input parameters was performed. The trade-off curve is a characteristic curve and was observed to be concave. This implies that there exists an access level at which at which the clinic can be operated at optimal profit that can be realized. The results also show that, in many scenarios by switching from existing scheduling policy to Advanced Access policy clinics can improve access without any decrease in profit. Further, the success of Advanced Access policy in providing improved access and/or profit depends on the expected value of demand, variation in demand, and the ratio of demand for same day and advanced appointments. The contributions of the dissertation are a model of Advanced Access patient scheduling, a heuristic to solve the model, and the use of the model to understand the scheduling policy trade-offs which healthcare clinic managers must make. ^

Haematite natural crystals: non-linear initial susceptibility at low temperature

Several works have reported that haematite has non-linear initial susceptibility at room temperature, like pyrrhotite or titanomagnetite, but there is no explanation for the observed behaviours yet. This study sets out to determine which physical property (grain size, foreign cations content and domain walls displacements) controls the initial susceptibility. The performed measurements include microprobe analysis to determine magnetic phases different to haematite; initial susceptibility (300 K); hysteresis loops, SIRM and backfield curves at 77 and 300 K to calculate magnetic parameters and minor loops at 77 K, to analyse initial susceptibility and magnetization behaviours below Morin transition. The magnetic moment study at low temperature is completed with measurements of zero field cooled-field cooled and AC susceptibility in a range from 5 to 300 K. The minor loops show that the non-linearity of initial susceptibility is closely related to Barkhausen jumps. Because of initial magnetic susceptibility is controlled by domain structure it is difficult to establish a mathematical model to separate magnetic subfabrics in haematite-bearing rocks.

Predicting Transcript Production Rates in Yeast With Sparse Linear Models

To provide biological insights into transcriptional regulation, a couple of groups have recently presented models relating the promoter DNA-bound transcription factors (TFs) to downstream gene’s mean transcript level or transcript production rates over time. However, transcript production is dynamic in response to changes of TF concentrations over time. Also, TFs are not the only factors binding to promoters; other DNA binding factors (DBFs) bind as well, especially nucleosomes, resulting in competition between DBFs for binding at same genomic location. Additionally, not only TFs, but also some other elements regulate transcription. Within core promoter, various regulatory elements influence RNAPII recruitment, PIC formation, RNAPII searching for TSS, and RNAPII initiating transcription. Moreover, it is proposed that downstream from TSS, nucleosomes resist RNAPII elongation.

Here, we provide a machine learning framework to predict transcript production rates from DNA sequences. We applied this framework in the S. cerevisiae yeast for two scenarios: a) to predict the dynamic transcript production rate during the cell cycle for native promoters; b) to predict the mean transcript production rate over time for synthetic promoters. As far as we know, our framework is the first successful attempt to have a model that can predict dynamic transcript production rates from DNA sequences only: with cell cycle data set, we got Pearson correlation coefficient Cp = 0.751 and coefficient of determination r2 = 0.564 on test set for predicting dynamic transcript production rate over time. Also, for DREAM6 Gene Promoter Expression Prediction challenge, our fitted model outperformed all participant teams, best of all teams, and a model combining best team’s k-mer based sequence features and another paper’s biologically mechanistic features, in terms of all scoring metrics.

Moreover, our framework shows its capability of identifying generalizable fea- tures by interpreting the highly predictive models, and thereby provide support for associated hypothesized mechanisms about transcriptional regulation. With the learned sparse linear models, we got results supporting the following biological insights: a) TFs govern the probability of RNAPII recruitment and initiation possibly through interactions with PIC components and transcription cofactors; b) the core promoter amplifies the transcript production probably by influencing PIC formation, RNAPII recruitment, DNA melting, RNAPII searching for and selecting TSS, releasing RNAPII from general transcription factors, and thereby initiation; c) there is strong transcriptional synergy between TFs and core promoter elements; d) the regulatory elements within core promoter region are more than TATA box and nucleosome free region, suggesting the existence of still unidentified TAF-dependent and cofactor-dependent core promoter elements in yeast S. cerevisiae; e) nucleosome occupancy is helpful for representing +1 and -1 nucleosomes’ regulatory roles on transcription.

Mixtures of g-priors in Generalized Linear Models

Mixtures of Zellner's g-priors have been studied extensively in linear models and have been shown to have numerous desirable properties for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. Several extensions of g-priors to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) have been proposed in the literature; however, the choice of prior distribution of g and resulting properties for inference have received considerably less attention. In this paper, we extend mixtures of g-priors to GLMs by assigning the truncated Compound Confluent Hypergeometric (tCCH) distribution to 1/(1+g) and illustrate how this prior distribution encompasses several special cases of mixtures of g-priors in the literature, such as the Hyper-g, truncated Gamma, Beta-prime, and the Robust prior. Under an integrated Laplace approximation to the likelihood, the posterior distribution of 1/(1+g) is in turn a tCCH distribution, and approximate marginal likelihoods are thus available analytically. We discuss the local geometric properties of the g-prior in GLMs and show that specific choices of the hyper-parameters satisfy the various desiderata for model selection proposed by Bayarri et al, such as asymptotic model selection consistency, information consistency, intrinsic consistency, and measurement invariance. We also illustrate inference using these priors and contrast them to others in the literature via simulation and real examples.

Two-Path All-pass Based Half-Band Infinite Impulse Response Decimation Filters and the Effects of Their Non-Linear Phase Response on ECG Signal Acquisition

This paper is based on the novel use of a very high fidelity decimation filter chain for Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal acquisition and data conversion. The multiplier-free and multi-stage structure of the proposed filters lower the power dissipation while minimizing the circuit area which are crucial design constraints to the wireless noninvasive wearable health monitoring products due to the scarce operational resources in their electronic implementation. The decimation ratio of the presented filter is 128, working in tandem with a 1-bit 3rd order Sigma Delta (ΣΔ) modulator which achieves 0.04 dB passband ripples and -74 dB stopband attenuation. The work reported here investigates the non-linear phase effects of the proposed decimation filters on the ECG signal by carrying out a comparative study after phase correction. It concludes that the enhanced phase linearity is not crucial for ECG acquisition and data conversion applications since the signal distortion of the acquired signal, due to phase non-linearity, is insignificant for both original and phase compensated filters. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, being free of signal distortion is essential as this might lead to misdiagnosis as stated in the state of the art. This article demonstrates that with their minimal power consumption and minimal signal distortion features, the proposed decimation filters can effectively be employed in biosignal data processing units.

A domain decomposition based algorithm for non-linear 2D inverse heat conduction problems

Inverse heat conduction problems (IHCPs) appear in many important scientific and technological fields. Hence analysis, design, implementation and testing of inverse algorithms are also of great scientific and technological interest. The numerical simulation of 2-D and –D inverse (or even direct) problems involves a considerable amount of computation. Therefore, the investigation and exploitation of parallel properties of such algorithms are equally becoming very important. Domain decomposition (DD) methods are widely used to solve large scale engineering problems and to exploit their inherent ability for the solution of such problems.

Oceans of energy? The non-linear trajectory of the emerging wave energy technology

This paper addresses the construction and structuring of a technological niche – i.e. a protected space where promising but still underperforming technologies are stabilized and articulated with societal needs – and discusses the processes that influence niche development and may enable niche breakout. In theoretical terms the paper is grounded on the multi-level approach to sustainability transitions, and particularly on the niche literature. But it also attempts to address the limitations of this literature in what concerns the spatial dimension of niche development. It is argued that technological niches can transcend the narrow territorial boundaries to which they are often confined, and encompass communities and actions that span several spatial levels, without losing some territorial embeddedness. It is further proposed that these features shape the niche trajectory and, therefore, need to be explicitly considered by the niche theoretical framework. To address this problem the paper builds on and extends the socio-cognitive perspective to technology development, introducing a further dimension – space – which broadens the concept of technological niche and permits to better capture the complexity of niche behaviour. This extended framework is applied to the case of an emerging renewable energy technology – wave energy - which exhibits a particularly slow and non-linear development trajectory. The empirical analysis starts by examining how an “overall niche space” in wave energy was spatially constructed over time. Then it investigates in greater detail the niche development processes that took place in Portugal, a country that was among the pioneers in the field, and whose actors have been, from very early stages, engaged in the activities conducted at various spatial levels. Through this combined analysis, the paper seeks to understand whether and how niche development is shaped by processes taking place at different spatial levels. More specifically it investigates the interplay between territorial and relational elements in niche development, and how these different dynamics influence the performance of the niche processes and impact on the overall niche trajectory. The results confirm the niche multi-spatial dynamics, showing that it is shaped by the interplay between a niche relational space constructed by actors’ actions and interactions on/across levels, and the territorial effects introduced by these actors’ embeddedness in particular geographical and institutional settings. They contribute to a more precise understanding of the processes that can accelerate or slow down the trajectory of a technological niche. In addition, the results shed some light into the niche activities conducted in/originating from a specific territorial setting - Portugal - offering some insights into the behaviour of key actors and its implications for the positioning of the country in the emerging field, which can be relevant for the formulation of strategies and policies for this area.

Characterization of Non-linear Polymer Properties to Predict Process Induced Warpage and Residual Stress of Electronic Packages

Nonlinear thermo-mechanical properties of advanced polymers are crucial to accurate prediction of the process induced warpage and residual stress of electronics packages. The Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor based method is advanced and implemented to determine temperature and time dependent nonlinear properties. The FBG sensor is embedded in the center of the cylindrical specimen, which deforms together with the specimen. The strains of the specimen at different loading conditions are monitored by the FBG sensor. Two main sources of the warpage are considered: curing induced warpage and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatch induced warpage. The effective chemical shrinkage and the equilibrium modulus are needed for the curing induced warpage prediction. Considering various polymeric materials used in microelectronic packages, unique curing setups and procedures are developed for elastomers (extremely low modulus, medium viscosity, room temperature curing), underfill materials (medium modulus, low viscosity, high temperature curing), and epoxy molding compound (EMC: high modulus, high viscosity, high temperature pressure curing), most notably, (1) zero-constraint mold for elastomers; (2) a two-stage curing procedure for underfill materials and (3) an air-cylinder based novel setup for EMC. For the CTE mismatch induced warpage, the temperature dependent CTE and the comprehensive viscoelastic properties are measured. The cured cylindrical specimen with a FBG sensor embedded in the center is further used for viscoelastic property measurements. A uni-axial compressive loading is applied to the specimen to measure the time dependent Young’s modulus. The test is repeated from room temperature to the reflow temperature to capture the time-temperature dependent Young’s modulus. A separate high pressure system is developed for the bulk modulus measurement. The time temperature dependent bulk modulus is measured at the same temperatures as the Young’s modulus. The master curve of the Young’s modulus and bulk modulus of the EMC is created and a single set of the shift factors is determined from the time temperature superposition. The supplementary experiments are conducted to verify the validity of the assumptions associated with the linear viscoelasticity. The measured time-temperature dependent properties are further verified by a shadow moiré and Twyman/Green test.

Prediction and improved estimation in linear models /

Includes index.

Modelação e previsão de um índice financeiro (FTSE 100)

A presente dissertação visa uma aplicação de séries temporais, na modelação do índice financeiro FTSE100. Com base na série de retornos, foram estudadas a estacionaridade através do teste Phillips-Perron, a normalidade pelo Teste Jarque-Bera, a independência analisada pela função de autocorrelação e pelo teste de Ljung-Box, e utilizados modelos GARCH, com a finalidade de modelar e prever a variância condicional (volatilidade) da série financeira em estudo. As séries temporais financeiras apresentam características peculiares, revelando períodos mais voláteis do que outros. Esses períodos encontram-se distribuídos em clusters, sugerindo um grau de dependência no tempo. Atendendo à presença de tais grupos de volatilidade (não linearidade), torna-se necessário o recurso a modelos heterocedásticos condicionais, isto é, modelos que consideram que a variância condicional de uma série temporal não é constante e dependente do tempo. Face à grande variabilidade das séries temporais financeiras ao longo do tempo, os modelos ARCH (Engle, 1982) e a sua generalização GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986) revelam-se os mais adequados para o estudo da volatilidade. Em particular, estes modelos não lineares apresentam uma variância condicional aleatória, sendo possível, através do seu estudo, estimar e prever a volatilidade futura da série. Por fim, é apresentado o estudo empírico que se baseia numa proposta de modelação e previsão de um conjunto de dados reais do índice financeiro FTSE100.