Open Environmental Information Upon Disclosure Request in China: The Paradox of Legal Mobilization

Taking a realist view that law is one form of politics, this dissertation studies the roles of citizens and organizations in mobilizing the law to request government agencies to disclose environmental information in China, and during this process, how the socio-legal field interacts with the political-legal sphere, and what changes have been brought about during their interactions. This work takes a socio-legal approach and applies methodologies of social science and legal analysis. It aims to understand the paradox of why and how citizens and entities have been invoking the law to access environmental information despite the fact that various obstacles exist and the effectiveness of the new mechanism of environmental information disclosure still remains low. The study is largely based on the 28 cases and eight surveys of environmental information disclosure requests collected by the author. The cases and surveys analysed in this dissertation all occurred between May 2008, when the OGI Regulations and the OEI Measures came into effect, and August 2012 when the case collection was completed. The findings of this study have shown that by invoking the rules of law made by the authorities to demand government agencies disclosing environmental information, the public, including citizens, organizations, law firms, and the media, have strategically created a repercussive pressure upon the authorities to act according to the law. While it is a top-down process that has established the mechanism of open government information in China, it is indeed the bottom-up activism of the public that makes it work. Citizens and organizations’ use of legal tactics to push government agencies to disclose environmental information have formed not only an end of accessing the information but more a means of making government agencies accountable to their legal obligations. Law has thus played a pivotal role in enabling citizen participation in the political process. Against the current situation in China that political campaigns, or politicization, from general election to collective actions, especially contentious actions, are still restrained or even repressed by the government, legal mobilization, or judicialization, that citizens and organizations use legal tactics to demand their rights and push government agencies to enforce the law, become de facto an alternative of political participation. During this process, legal actions have helped to strengthen the civil society, make government agencies act according to law, push back the political boundaries, and induce changes in the relationship between the state and the public. In the field of environmental information disclosure, citizens and organizations have formed a bottom-up social activism, though limited in scope, using the language of law, creating progressive social, legal and political changes. This study emphasizes that it is partial and incomplete to understand China’s transition only from the top-down policy-making and government administration; it is also important to observe it from the bottom-up perspective that in a realistic view law can be part of politics and legal mobilization, even when utterly apolitical, can help to achieve political aims as well. This study of legal mobilization in the field of environmental information disclosure also helps us to better understand the function of law: law is not only a tool for the authorities to regulate and control, but inevitably also a weapon for the public to demand government agencies to work towards their obligations stipulated by the laws issued by themselves.

Personal soundtracks on public transit : personal listening devices and socio-spatial negotiations of students' bus journeys

One way of exploring the power of sound in the experience and constitution of space is through the phenomenon of personal listening devices (PLDs) in public environments. In this thesis, I draw from in-depth interviews with eleven Brock University students in S1. Catharines, Ontario, to show how PLDs (such as MP3 players like the iPod) are used to create personalized soundscapes and mediate their public transit journeys. I discuss how my interview participants experience the space-time of public transit, and show how PLDs are used to mediate these experiences in acoustic and non-acoustic ways. PLD use demonstrates that acoustic and environmental experiences are co-constitutive, which highlights a kinaesthetic quality of the transit-space. My empirical findings show that PLDs transform space, particularly by overlapping public and private appropriations of the bus. I use these empirical findings to discuss the PLD phenomenon in the theoretical context of spatiality, and more specifically, acoustic space. J develop the ontological notion of acoustic space, stating that space shares many of the properties of sound, and argue that sound is a rich epistemological tool for understanding and explaining our everyday experiences.

Predicting Physical, Verbal, Social, Racial, and Sexual Bullying with Individual and Environmental Factors from an Evolutionary Ecological Framework

Evidence exists for subtypes of bullying, but there is a lack of studies simultaneously investigating the factors that influence each subtype. The purpose of my thesis was to investigate how individual and environmental factors independently and interactively predict physical, verbal, social, racial, and sexual bullying using an evolutionary ecological framework. Adolescents (N = 225, M = 14.05, SD = 1.54) completed self-reports on demographics, HEXACO personality, Rothbart’s temperament, parenting, friendship quality, school connectedness, and socio-economic status. Subtypes were predicted by low Honesty-Humility in addition to other personality and demographic factors with the exception of physical bullying, which was predicted by environmental factors. Results suggest adolescents adaptively and selectively use bullying to exploit victims and obtain resources, although the subtype used may depend on individual factors bullies possess within Bronfenbrenner’s microsystem, instead of the meso- and exo- systems. Anti-bullying efforts should target these factors and reinforce alternative strategies to obtain resources.

Relation entre statut socio-économique et incidence du cancer du poumon dans le contexte d’une étude cas-témoins montréalaise

Des études ont observé que le statut socio-économique (SSE) est inversement associé avec le risque de cancer du poumon. Cette thèse approfondit différents aspects de la relation entre le SSE et le risque de cancer du poumon afin de contribuer à la compréhension des facteurs influençant le risque de cette maladie. Son objectif général consiste à étudier les associations entre le SSE et le risque de cancer du poumon en fonction à la fois : 1) de l’indicateur du SSE ; 2) des types d’ajustement pour le tabagisme, et ; 3) des facteurs de risque intermédiares potentiels de l’association entre le SSE et le cancer du poumon. Les données d’une vaste étude cas-témoins menée à Montréal entre 1996 et 2002 et portant sur l’identification de facteurs environnementaux impliqués dans l’étiologie du cancer du poumon ont été utilisées. L’échantillon analysé était constitué de 1203 cas (738 hommes et 465 femmes) diagnostiqués en 1996-1997 dans les 18 principaux hôpitaux du Grand Montréal et 1513 témoins (899 hommes et 614 femmes). Les témoins, recrutés au hasard à partir de la liste électorale, ont été appariés aux cas selon l’âge, le sexe et le district électoral. Les sujets ont été interviewés afin de colliger de l’information entre autres sur les caractéristiques sociodémographiques et économiques, les habitudes de tabagisme, l‘histoire professionnelle et l’alimentation. Une collecte de données additionnelle a été effectuée spécifiquement pour la présente thèse. En effet, l’évaluation foncière de la résidence correspondant à l’adresse de chacun des sujets à l’entrevue a été obtenue à partir des bases de données publiques de la ville de Montréal. Le premier article portait sur la comparaison de différents indices de disponibilité financière chacun en 5 catégories: un indice de valeur résidentielle, le revenu médian issu des données du recensement et le revenu familial auto-rapporté. En comparant au revenu familial auto-rapporté, une très bonne concordance a été obtenue pour 73% et 64% des individus respectivement pour l’indice de valeur résidentielle et le revenu du recensement. Le Kappa pondéré était plus élevé pour la comparaison du revenu familial auto-rapporté avec l’indice de valeur résidentielle (Kappap=0.36, IC 95%: 0.31-0.40) qu’avec le revenu médian issu du recensement (Kappap=0.22, IC 95%: 0.17-0.27). Le choix d’un indice dépend toutefois des objectifs et de la faisabilité de son utilisation dans la population étudiée. Le deuxième article présentait les associations entre les trois indices de disponibilité financière et le risque de cancer du poumon. Les fortes associations observées initialement sont disparues après un ajustement pour plusieurs dimensions du tabagisme. Ce dernier jouait un rôle de grande importance dans la relation entre le SSE et le risque de cancer du poumon. Finalement, les facteurs de risque intermédiares des associations entre trois différentes dimensions du SSE – éducation, revenu, classe professionnelle – ont été étudiés. Les résultats ont suggéré que les 3 facteurs de risque intermédiares potentiels étudiés: tabagisme, consommation de fruits et légumes riches en caroténoïdes, expositions professionnelles avaient un effet médiateur indépendant dans la relation entre le SSE et le cancer du poumon. Le plus important médiateur était le tabagisme, suivi de l’alimentation et à un degré moindre, les expositions professionnelles. Il nous paraît particulièrement pertinent d‘évaluer différents indicateurs du SSE lorsque possible, et d’effectuer un ajustement détaillé pour le tabagisme lorsque la relation entre le SSE et le risque de cancer du poumon est étudiée. Une bonne connaissance et la prise en compte des facteurs de risque intermédiares sont essentielles à la formulation des mesures de prévention du cancer du poumon.

Study of baleen whales’ ecology and interaction with maritime traffic activities to support management of a complex socio-ecological system

Thesis written in co-mentorship with Robert Michaud.

Recherche et développement dans les sciences de l’environnement : l’Université entre impératifs scientifico-techniques, économiques et socio-politiques. Le cas du Réseau de centres d’excellence ArcticNet.

Cette thèse cible l’étude d’une organisation sociotechnique pluraliste, le Réseau de centres d’excellence ArcticNet, établi depuis 2003 au sein de l’Université Laval et financé par le programme fédéral des Réseaux de centres d’excellence (RCE). Ce programme, effectif depuis 1988, est issu d’une initiative du ministère de l’Industrie Canada et des trois Conseils fédéraux de financement de la recherche scientifique (CRSNG, CRSH et IRSC). Par sa dimension interdisciplinaire et interinstitutionnelle, le RCE ArcticNet sollicite la mise en place de divers accommodements sur une thématique environnementale controversée, celle du développement de l’Arctique canadien côtier. Notre approche se concentre sur la description de ces collaborations pluralistes et l’analyse des stratégies de consensus mises en place par une organisation universitaire médiatrice. Si cette étude illustre le cas d’ArcticNet, elle questionne toutefois deux réalités d’ensemble: (1) D’un point de vue théorique, prépondérant dans cette thèse, les enjeux environnementaux et de développement durable s’inscrivent dans les nouvelles réalités de la production des connaissances portées par une coévolution entre science et société, contribuant à l’expansion des domaines de R&D ciblés; et, (2) D’un point de vue empirique illustratif, les éléments de formation et d’évolution d’un réseau sociotechnique intersectoriel et les stratégies des scientifiques dans la recherche et le développement de l’Arctique canadien côtier présentent un profil basé sur l’accommodement des parties prenantes. Cette recherche adhère au postulat épistémologique des théories des organisations sociotechniques pluralistes, plutôt qu’aux modèles théoriques de la société/économie de la connaissance. L’étude regroupe un total de 23 entrevues recueillies en 2008 et en 2010 auprès de l’administration, de membres scientifiques et de partenaires d’ArcticNet, suivant une logique de témoignage. Elle ouvre ainsi une nouvelle réflexion sur leur milieu de pratique de la science, plus particulièrement des sciences de l’environnement, vers lequel la société actuelle oriente la nouvelle production des connaissances, à travers les divers financements de la recherche et du développement.

Socio-Economic Dimensions of Health Care Development Among Tribals in Kerala: A Study of Tribal Communities in Wynad

The contemporary explanations and discussions of the relationship between medicine and health, and society centre around assumptions that can be broadly classified into three setsl. The first set considers health and illness as predominantly ‘biological’ and therefore, having nothing to do with the social and economic environment in which it occurs. The struggle to combat illness therefore, lies entirely within the purview of modern medicine which is neutral to economic or social change. The second considers practice of medicine as a natural science. It allows the doctor to separate himself from his subject matter, the patient, in the samelway as the natural scientist is assumed to separate himself from his subject matter, the natural world. As a 'science' and with the scientific method, it can produce unchallengable and autonomous body of knowledge which is free from the wider social and economic context. The third, different from the above, recognises the relationship between health, medicine and society. Social and environmental aspects as determinants of illness or of health comes to sharp focus here and it assigns to medicine the status of a mediator, the only viable mediator, between people and diseases. In this scheme of things the usefulness of medicine is unquestionable but the problem lies in not having enough of it to go arounds.

Coastal regulation zone rules in coastal panchayats (villages) of Kerala, India vis-a` -vis socio-economic impacts from the recently introduced peoples’ participatory program for local self-governance and sustainable development

Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) notification was issued by the Ministry of Environment and Forest of Government of India in February 1991 as a part of the Environmental Protection Act of 1986 to protect the coast from eroding and to preserve its natural resources. The initial notification did not distinguish the variability and diversity of various coastal states before enforcing it on the various states and Union Territories. Impact assessments were not carried out to assess its impact on socio-economic life of the coastal population. For the very same reason, it was unnoticed or rather ignored till 1994 when the Supreme Court of India made a land mark judgment on the fate of the coastal aquaculture which by then had established as an economically successful industry in many South Indian States. Coastal aquaculture in its modern form was a prohibited activity within CRZ. Lately, only various stakeholders of the coast realized the real impact of the CRZ rules on their property rights andbusiness. To overcome the initial drawbacks several amendments were made in the regulation to suit regional needs. In 1995, another great transformation took place in the State of Kerala as a part of the reorganization of the local self government institutions into a decentralized three tier system called ‘‘Panchayathi Raj System’’. In 1997, the state government also decided to transfer the power with the required budget outlay to the grass root level panchayats (villages) and municipalities to plan and implement the various projects in their localities with the full participation of the local people by constituting Grama Sabhas (Peoples’ Forum). It is called the ‘‘Peoples’ Planning Campaign’’(Peoples’ Participatory Programme—PPP for Local Level Self-Governance). The management of all the resources including the local natural resources was largely decentralized to the level of local communities and villages. Integrated, sustainable coastal zone management has become the concern of the local population. The paper assesses the socio-economic impact of the centrally enforced CRZ and the state sponsored PPP on the coastal community in Kerala and suggests measures to improve the system and living standards of the coastal people within the framework of CRZ.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

Un nuevo enfoque organizacional para Colombia como solución al problema socio-económico de las personas en proceso de reintegración

Como solución al problema socio-económico de las poblaciones que tienden a la vulnerabilidad en Colombia, se plantea un modelo de empresa sustentable; se trata de partir de una inter-dependencia entre la responsabilidad social empresarial y la cadena de valor, logrando establecer enlaces de integración horizontal y vertical, para así ayudar a crear, fomentar y hacer crecer dentro de estas cadena, a microempresas conformadas por las minorías más vulnerables social y económicamente de nuestro país, aplicándolo en una primera instancia, como modelo piloto, a las personas en proceso de reintegración de los grupos armados ilegales, de manera que el modelo sea viable, soportable y equitativo, y genere cuenta de resultados a futuro para las organizaciones de tipo social, financiero y ambiental.

Determinantes socio-económicas de la desnutrición global infantil en la Localidad de Ciudad Bolívar (Bogotá, Colombia) en el año 2011

La desnutrición infantil y la pobreza se encuentran asociadas y estas a su vez con el progreso de los países. Conocer las determinantes sociales y económicas de la niñez que padece de bajo peso es necesario para crear escenarios propicios para el adecuado desarrollo de la primera infancia y de esta manera contribuir con la superación de la pobreza en el marco de sistemas sanitarios equitativos. Se realiza una descripción de las características socio-económicas y un análisis de posibles asociaciones entre estas y el bajo peso infantil de una muestra de infantes de uno de los sectores de mayor vulnerabilidad y pobreza de Bogotá (Colombia). La tasa del bajo peso infantil en la muestra del estudio en más alta a la presentada en Bogotá y Colombia (8.5%, 2.9% y 3.4% respectivamente). Al realizar el análisis de las posibles asociaciones entre el bajo peso y las variables de estudio, se evidencia que las relaciones son débiles entre la primera y las segundas, siendo la condición de desplazamiento la que mayor asociación positiva presenta con la deficiencia nutricional seguido del rango de edad entre los 25 y 36 meses. La situación que presenta mayor independencia con respecto al bajo peso infantil es contar con vivienda propia seguida del sexo. La desnutrición infantil se presenta en niveles importantes en sectores de mayor vulnerabilidad con implicaciones para el adecuado desarrollo de los infantes y para las intenciones de reducción de los índices de pobreza en el país. El fortalecimiento de las políticas públicas que favorezca el desarrollo infantil, la superación de la pobreza y las inequidades en los sistemas de salud deben contemplar acciones integrales dirigidas a los más vulnerables, con la participación de la sociedad civil y los sectores públicos y privados, el compromiso político y económico de los gobiernos y reglas claras que contribuyan a la solución estructural de la pobreza y que promueva el adecuado desarrollo infantil.

“Superficial Water Concessions In Light Of The General Theory of the Administrative Act” The Incidence of the Public Law’s Dogmatic Tradition of Public Law Within Environmental Law

This paper seeks the determine the ways in which anomalous decisions derived from the particularization and constitutionalization of environmental law can arise given the general theory of administrative action. This is seen through the lens of a study and characterization of administrative decisions issued by the Regional Autonomous Corporation of Cundinamarca –CAR- within the superficial water concessions procedure. It also discusses the conceptual contents of these licenses.

Environmental governance from a gender perspective. Theoretical reflections and case studies

In the second half of the twentieth century we saw the environmental debate escalate into one of the most challenging and complex issues that authorities at international, national, regional and municipal levels have to deal with. The inherent complexity of environmental problems, which brings out the interconnections between the economic, socio-cultural and ecological dimensions of the territory, is increased by the social, scientific and political focuses of the debate, and their interdependencies. In the framework of governance, scientific and technical assessments are a relevant but not “unique” source for legitimating environmental policymaking. The discussion is opened towards the consideration of different existing perspectives on the environment. The main objective of the present study is to systematize and explore in-depth the perspectives brought by feminism and gender to environmental governance. What is the specificity of a feminist and gender outlook? In what sense does it bring new light to environmental governance processes? Such questions are explored empirically and theoretically.

La transformació del paisatge litoral de la Costa Brava: Anàlisi de l'evolució (1956-2003), diagnosi de l'estat actual i prognosi de futur

En la tesi es presenta una anàlisi de l'evolució dels canvis succeïts en el paisatge costaner de la Costa Brava (22 municipis litorals) en els darrers cinquanta anys (1956-2003); un estudi de la seva estructura ecopaisatgística, actual i passada, amb una especial èmfasi en la diagnosi de les conseqüències geoambientals de l'esclat urbanístic iniciat a la dècada de 1960, i s'ha determinat quina ha estat la tendència de canvi en els darrers vint-i-cinc anys la qual s'ha utilitzat per a elaborar models explicatius de la dinàmica territorial seguida i projectar-los cap al futur tot dissenyant escenaris probables. A les Bases teòriques s'exposa en quina parcel·la del coneixement científic es situa aquesta recerca i es repassa l'evolució dels diferents corrents i enfocaments que han precedit, dins la Ciència Geogràfica, els estudis sobre transformació del paisatge. Es posa especial en els principis i metodologies que plantegen les dues escoles d'anàlisi del paisatge en que es basa aquesta tesi: la Landscape Ecology i la estructurada a l'entorn del programa internacional Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC). S'ha dissenyat una pauta metodològica per a l'anàlisi paisatgística d'un territori a diferents escales: des de l'àmbit regional de tota la Costa Brava (66.230 ha), on es poden detectar les tendències generals, fins l'estudi detallat a escala local, on s'ha pres com a àrea d'estudi tres municipis del centre de la Costa Brava (6.960 Ha): Palamós, Calonge i Castell-Platja d'Aro. Els principals resultats obtinguts són els següents: Una cartografia d'usos i cobertes del sòl de tres períodes temporals i la conseqüent interpretació espacial per a cada etapa: 1957 (situació preturística), 1980 (inici de les actuacions dels ajuntaments democràtics) i 2003 (actualitat). Una anàlisi quantitativa de la transformació del paisatge i de les relacions espacials associades al canvi, a partir de la cartografia d'usos i cobertes del sòl dels tres períodes mapificats (1956, 1980, 2003). Amb l'objectiu d'arribar a definir quina ha estat la dinàmica dels canvis ocorreguts al llarg dels darrers gairebé cinquanta anys. Una anàlisi de l'estructura del mosaic paisatgístic de cadascun dels talls temporals per mitjà de l'aplicació dels principals índexs de l'Ecologia del Paisatge. S'ha analitzat la geometria de la conversió dels usos del sòl i s'han posat de manifest les repercussions ecològiques i paisatgístiques d'aquests canvis. Per una banda, a partir del càlcul i interpretació dels índexos esmentats s'ha analitzat l'evolució de la morfologia i la distribució territorial dels quatre principals usos i cobertes del sòl de la Costa Brava. Per l'altra, per a la Costa Brava centre s'ha analitzat l'estat dels dos sistemes naturals del litoral amb més pressió antròpica: la franja estrictament costanera i les masses forestals. Respecte als tres municipis de la Costa Brava centre s'han tingut en compte en l'anàlisi de l'evolució del paisatge a escala local, les actuacions desenvolupades en l'àmbit urbanístic municipal i les seves conseqüències paisatgístiques i ambientals. A partir de la informació ja processada, s'han detectat les tendències de canvi a partir de models de canvi d'usos i cobertes del sòl. S'han incorporat també els factors biofísics i antròpics, socials i econòmics, condicionants i responsables d'una determinada utilització del territori en cadascun dels tres períodes. Mitjançant l'anàlisi multivariable s'ha intentat descobrir el conjunt de factors que influencien en la taxa i el patró espacial de canvi d'usos i les seves conseqüències territorials. Finalment s'ha aplicat un model de simulació, basat en els automatismes cel·lulars de Markov, per tal de projectar les tendències de canvi i plantejar escenaris futurs, una eina bàsica per a la planificació futura del territori i per al control de les problemàtiques ambientals. Aquestes mesures serveixen per a definir, per a la Costa Brava centre, un patró espacial dels canvis d'usos del sòl a nivell local, i, per al conjunt de la Costa Brava, per a predir, mitjançant models de simulació quantitativa, els possibles desenvolupaments i per estimar els impactes.

Integrating socio-economics and ecology: a taxonomy of quantitative methods and a review of their use in agro-ecology

Answering many of the critical questions in conservation, development and environmental management requires integrating the social and natural sciences. However, understanding the array of available quantitative methods and their associated terminology presents a major barrier to successful collaboration. We provide an overview of quantitative socio-economic methods that distils their complexity into a simple taxonomy. We outline how each has been used in conjunction with ecological models to address questions relating to the management of socio-ecological systems. We review the application of social and ecological quantitative concepts to agro-ecology and classify the approaches used to integrate the two disciplines. Our review included all published integrated models from 2003 to 2008 in 27 journals that publish agricultural modelling research. Although our focus is on agro-ecology, many of the results are broadly applicable to other fields involving an interaction between human activities and ecology. We found 36 papers that integrated social and ecological concepts in a quantitative model. Four different approaches to integration were used, depending on the scale at which human welfare was quantified. Most models viewed humans as pure profit maximizers, both when calculating welfare and predicting behaviour. Synthesis and applications. We reached two main conclusions based on our taxonomy and review. The first is that quantitative methods that extend predictions of behaviour and measurements of welfare beyond a simple market value basis are underutilized by integrated models. The second is that the accuracy of prediction for integrated models remains largely unquantified. Addressing both problems requires researchers to reach a common understanding of modelling goals and data requirements during the early stages of a project.