Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of the molecular weight on the electro-optic properties of methacrylate-based side-chain liquid crystal polymers

A series of methacrylate-based side-chain liquid crystal polymers has been prepared with a range of molecular weights. For the high molecular weight polymers a smectic phase is observed with a very narrow nematic range; however, for low molecular weight polymers only the nematic phase is observed. A marked reduction in the glass transition temperature, TSN and TNI is observed with a reduction in the molecular weight. The orientational order parameters for these polymers in the liquid crystal phase have been determined using infra-red dichroism. It is found that the higher the molecular weight of the polymer, the greater is the threshold voltage of the electro-optic response and the lower the order parameter. The increase in the threshold voltage with increasing molecular weight may be related to the intrinsic curvature elasticity and hence to the coupling between the mesogenic units and the polymer backbone.

The primary somatosensory cortex largely contributes to the early part of the cortical response elicited by nociceptive stimuli.

Research on the cortical sources of nociceptive laser-evoked brain potentials (LEPs) began almost two decades ago (Tarkka and Treede, 1993). Whereas there is a large consensus on the sources of the late part of the LEP waveform (N2 and P2 waves), the relative contribution of the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) to the early part of the LEP waveform (N1 wave) is still debated. To address this issue we recorded LEPs elicited by the stimulation of four limbs in a large population (n=35). Early LEP generators were estimated both at single-subject and group level, using three different approaches: distributed source analysis, dipolar source modeling, and probabilistic independent component analysis (ICA). We show that the scalp distribution of the earliest LEP response to hand stimulation was maximal over the central-parietal electrodes contralateral to the stimulated side, while that of the earliest LEP response to foot stimulation was maximal over the central-parietal midline electrodes. Crucially, all three approaches indicated hand and foot S1 areas as generators of the earliest LEP response. Altogether, these findings indicate that the earliest part of the scalp response elicited by a selective nociceptive stimulus is largely explained by activity in the contralateral S1, with negligible contribution from the secondary somatosensory cortex (S2).

A three-compartment model of the hemodynamic response and oxygen delivery to brain

We describe a mathematical model linking changes in cerebral blood flow, blood volume and the blood oxygenation state in response to stimulation. The model has three compartments to take into account the fact that the cerebral blood flow and volume as measured concurrently using laser Doppler flowmetry and optical imaging spectroscopy have contributions from the arterial, capillary as well as the venous compartments of the vasculature. It is an extension to previous one-compartment hemodynamic models which assume that the measured blood volume changes are from the venous compartment only. An important assumption of the model is that the tissue oxygen concentration is a time varying state variable of the system and is driven by the changes in metabolic demand resulting from changes in neural activity. The model takes into account the pre-capillary oxygen diffusion by flexibly allowing the saturation of the arterial compartment to be less than unity. Simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of the model and to optimise the parameters for experimental data. We conclude that the three-compartment model was better than the one-compartment model at capturing the hemodynamics of the response to changes in neural activation following stimulation.

Analysis and clustering of residential customers energy behavioral demand using smart meter data

Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1, 2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established3, 4, 5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability6, 7, 8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude1, 6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide1, 2, 3, 4, 9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database10, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

The Effects of Different Loading Times on the Bone Response Around Dental Implants: A Histomorphometric Study in Dogs

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate, through histomorphometric analysis, the effect that different loading times would have on the bone response around implants. Materials and Methods: Three Replace Select implants were placed on each side of the mandible in eight dogs (n = 48 implants). One pair of implants was selected for an immediate loading protocol (IL). After 7 days, the second pair of implants received prostheses for an early loading protocol (EL). Fourteen days after implant placement, the third pair of implants received prostheses for advanced early loading (AEL). Following 12 weeks of prosthetics, counted following the positioning of the metallic crowns for the AEL group, the animals were sacrificed and the specimens were prepared for histomorphometric analysis. The differences between loading time in the following parameters were evaluated through analysis of variance: bone-to-implant contact, bone density, and crestal bone loss. Results: The mean percentage of bone-to-implant contact for IL was 77.9% +/- 1.71%, for EL it was 79.25% +/- 2.11%, and for AEL it was 79.42% +/- 1.49%. The mean percentage of bone density for IL was 69.97% +/- 3.81%, for EL it was 69.23% +/- 5.68%, and for AEL it was 69.19% +/- 2.90%. Mean crestal bone loss was 1.57 +/- 0.22 mm for IL, 1.23 +/- 0.19 mm for EL, and 1.17 +/- 0.32 mm for AEL. There was no statistical difference for any of the parameters evaluated (P > .05). Conclusion: Different early loading times did not seem to significantly affect the bone response around dental implants. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2010;25:473-481

Optical VOCs detection using poly(3-alkylthiophenes) with different side-chain lengths

The use of conjugated polymers in the gas and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) detections represents an advance in the development of the electronic noses. Polythiophenes show good thermal and environmental stability, are easily synthesized and they have been studied as gas and VOCs sensors using different principles or transduction techniques. Among these techniques, optical sensing has been attracted attention, mainly due to its versatility. However, conjugated polymer-based optical sensors are still less studied. This paper describes the use of two poly(3-alkylthiophenes) for VOCs optical detection. The sensing measurements were carried out using visible spectroscopy. Both polymers showed good sensitivity to the VOCs, showing fast and reversible responses with some hysteresis, and were unable to detect hydroxylated samples. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the thickness of polymer films influences the intensity of the optical response. Although there is similarity in the superficial composition of the polymers films, demonstrated by their surface energies, they showed significant differences in their optical properties upon exposure to the VOCs. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influenza virus vaccination in kidney transplant recipients: serum antibody response to different immunosuppressive drugs

Introduction: This study prospectively accessed the immune response to the inactivated influenza vaccine in renal transplant recipients receiving either azathioprine or mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). Side effects were investigated. Methods: Sixty-nine patients received one dose of inactivated trivalent influenza vaccine. Antihemagglutinin (HI) antibody response against each strain was measured before and one to six months after vaccination. Results: Geometric mean HI antibody titers for H1N1 and H3N2 strains increased from 2.57 and 2.44 to 13.45 (p = 0.001) and 7.20 (p < 0.001), respectively. Pre- and post-vaccination protection rates for H1N1 and H3N2 increased from 8.7% to 49.3% (p < 0.001); and 36.3% (p < 0.001) and seroconversion rates were 36% and 25.3%, respectively. There was no response to influenza B. The use of MMF reduced the H1N1 and H3N2 protection rates and the seroconversion rate for the H1N1 strain when compared with the use of azathioprine, and subjects transplanted less than 87 months also had inferior antibody response. Adverse events were mild and there were no change on renal function post-vaccination. Conclusion: Renal transplant patients vaccinated against influenza responded with antibody production for in. uenza A virus strains, but not for in. uenza B. Use of MMF and shorter time from transplantation decreased the immune response to the vaccine.

Enforcement in environmental law: an economic analysis of citizen suits

Previous to 1970, state and federal agencies held exclusive enforcement responsibilities over the violation of pollution control standards. However, recognizing that the government had neither the time nor resources to provide full enforcement, Congress created citizen suits. Citizen suits, first amended to the Clean Air Act in 1970, authorize citizens to act as private attorney generals and to sue polluters for violating the terms of their operating permits. Since that time, Congress has included citizen suits in 13 other federal statutes. The citizen suit phenomenon is sufficiently new that little is known about it. However, we do know that citizen suits have increased rapidly since the early 1980's. Between 1982 and 1986 the number of citizen suits jumped from 41 to 266. Obviously, they are becoming a widely used method of enforcing the environmental statutes. This paper will provide a detailed description, analysis and evaluation of citizen suits. It will begin with an introduction and will then move on to provide some historic and descriptive background on such issues as how citizen suit powers are delegated, what limitations are placed on the citizens, what parties are on each side of the suit, what citizens can enforce against, and the types of remedies available. The following section of the paper will provide an economic analysis of citizen suits. It will begin with a discussion of non-profit organizations, especially non-profit environmental organizations, detailing the economic factors which instigate their creation and activities. Three models will be developed to investigate the evolution and effects of citizen suits. The first model will provide an analysis of the demand for citizen suits from the point of view of a potential litigator showing how varying remedies, limitations and reimbursement procedures can effect both the level and types of activities undertaken. The second model shows how firm behavior could be expected to respond to citizen suits. Finally, a third model will look specifically at the issue of efficiency to determine whether the introduction of citizen enforcement leads to greater or lesser economic efficiency in pollution control. The database on which the analysis rests consists of 1205 cases compiled by the author. For the purposes of this project this list of citizen suit cases and their attributes were computerized and used to test a series of hypotheses derived from three original economic models. The database includes information regarding plaintiffs, defendants date notice and/or complaint was filed and statutes involved in the claim. The analysis focuses on six federal environmental statutes (Clean Water Act} Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act, Clean Air Act, Toxic Substances Control Act, and Safe Drinking Water Act) because the majority of citizen suits have occurred under these statutes.

Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.

Estimation of random coefficients logit demand models: an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market

Estimation of demand and supply in differentiated products markets is a central issue in Empirical Industrial Organization and has been used to study the effects of taxes, merges, introduction of new goods, market power, among others. Logit and Random Coefficients Logit are examples of demand models used to study these effects. For the supply side it is generally supposed a Nash equilibrium in prices. This work presents a detailed discussion of these models of demand and supply as well as the procedure for estimation. Lastly, is made an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market.

Humoral and cellular immune response generated by different vaccine programs before and after Salmonella Enteritidis challenge in chickens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Using of model updating considering damped frequency response function

The search for better performance in the structural systems has been taken to more refined models, involving the analysis of a growing number of details, which should be correctly formulated aiming at defining a representative model of the real system. Representative models demand a great detailing of the project and search for new techniques of evaluation and analysis. Model updating is one of this technologies, it can be used to improve the predictive capabilities of computer-based models. This paper presents a FRF-based finite element model updating procedure whose the updating variables are physical parameters of the model. It includes the damping effects in the updating procedure assuming proportional and none proportional damping mechanism. The updating parameters are defined at an element level or macro regions of the model. So, the parameters are adjusted locally, facilitating the physical interpretation of the adjusting of the model. Different tests for simulated and experimental data are discussed aiming at defining the characteristics and potentialities of the methodology.

Antibody response to newcastle disease vaccination in a flock of young partridges (Rhynchotus rufescens)

Ten young partridges (Rhynchotus rufescens) were vaccinated with the lentogenic strain of Newcastle disease virus. Another eight unvaccinated birds were kept in close contact with the treated flock. Antibodies levels were measured over the course of 3 mo in all birds using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test and the liquid-phase blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (LPB-ELISA). The LPB-ELISA was standardized, and the results were compared with those obtained with the HI test. Antibodies increased after 23 days postvaccination in 16 birds with no side effects as determined by both the HI test and the LPB-ELISA.