Semiparametric estimation and inference using doubly robust moment conditions

We study semiparametric two-step estimators which have the same structure as parametric doubly robust estimators in their second step. The key difference is that we do not impose any parametric restriction on the nuisance functions that are estimated in a first stage, but retain a fully nonparametric model instead. We call these estimators semiparametric doubly robust estimators (SDREs), and show that they possess superior theoretical and practical properties compared to generic semiparametric two-step estimators. In particular, our estimators have substantially smaller first-order bias, allow for a wider range of nonparametric first-stage estimates, rate-optimal choices of smoothing parameters and data-driven estimates thereof, and their stochastic behavior can be well-approximated by classical first-order asymptotics. SDREs exist for a wide range of parameters of interest, particularly in semiparametric missing data and causal inference models. We illustrate our method with a simulation exercise.

Minha escola transparente: uma análise comparativa do uso de dados governamentais abertos na educação básica no Brasil e Inglaterra

This research attempts to analyze the effects of open government data on the administration and practice of the educational process by comparing the contexts of Brazil and England. The findings illustrate two principal dynamics: control and collaboration. In the case of control, or what is called the "data-driven" paradigm, data help advance the cause of political accountability through the disclosure of school performance. In collaboration, or what is referred to as the "data-informed" paradigm, data is intended to support the decision-making process of administrators through dialogical processes with other social actors.

Cherry picking with synthetic controls

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages of the SC method is that it imposes a data-driven process to select the comparison units, providing more transparency and less discretionary power to the researcher. However, an important limitation of the SC method is that it does not provide clear guidance on the choice of predictor variables used to estimate the SC weights. We show that such lack of speci c guidances provides signi cant opportunities for the researcher to search for speci cations with statistically signi cant results, undermining one of the main advantages of the method. Considering six alternative speci cations commonly used in SC applications, we calculate in Monte Carlo simulations the probability of nding a statistically signi cant result at 5% in at least one speci cation. We nd that this probability can be as high as 13% (23% for a 10% signi cance test) when there are 12 pre-intervention periods and decay slowly with the number of pre-intervention periods. With 230 pre-intervention periods, this probability is still around 10% (18% for a 10% signi cance test). We show that the speci cation that uses the average pre-treatment outcome values to estimate the weights performed particularly bad in our simulations. However, the speci cation-searching problem remains relevant even when we do not consider this speci cation. We also show that this speci cation-searching problem is relevant in simulations with real datasets looking at placebo interventions in the Current Population Survey (CPS). In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a criterion to select among SC di erent speci cations based on the prediction error of each speci cations in placebo estimations

Desenvolvimento de um destilador solar para tratamento de águas de produção de petróleo com vistas a sua utilização na agricultura e geração de vapor

The production of petroleum is frequently accomplished with great volumes of water, that it is carried of the underground with the oil. It is a challenge of the present century the development of technologies that allow the use of waste water for purposes that consume great amounts of water and don't demand as rigid as the one of the drinking water requirements. The solar distillation has been configuring as an alternative of clean technology for desalination of brine and saline. Besides causing the minimum possible damage to the environment, it takes advantage of an abundant and free energy source: the solar energy. That study aims to develop a Solar Distillator for treatment of the produced water of the oil wells, to obtain an efluent to use in agriculture and vapor generation. The methodology for collection, conservation and analysis of the physical-chemical parameters obeyed the norms in APHA (1995). The sampling was of the composed type. Experiments were accomplished in the solar distillation pilot and simulation in thermostatic bathing. The operation was in batch system and for periods of 4, 6 and 12 h. The developed Distillator is of the type simple effect of two waters. It was still tested two inclination angles for covering; 20º and 45º. The Distillator presented minimum of 2,85 L/m2d revenues and maximum of 7,14 L/m2d. The removals of salts were great than 98%. The removal of TOC in the simulation was great than 90%. In agreement with the data of energy and mass balance, it was verified that the developed solar Distillator presented compatible revenues with those found in literature for similar types. It can be inferred that the obtained distilled water assists to the requirements CONAMA in almost all the points and could be used for irrigation of cultures such as cotton and mamona. As the distilled water has characteristics of fresh water it can be used in the generation of vapor

Ag precipitation and dissolution reactions in the Cu-3 wt.% Al-4 wt.% Ag alloy

The Ag precipitation and dissolution reactions in the Cu-3 wt.% Al-4 wt.% Ag alloy were studied using isothermal and non-isothermal analyses. The activation energy values, obtained for the Ag precipitation reaction indicated that, when the Kissinger, Ozawa and Johnson-MehI-Avrami methods are compared, the Kissinger method is the most appropriate. Although the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami equation often does not fit precipitation data, the energy values obtained for Ag precipitation kinetics are in agreement with what was experimentally observed. For the dissolution reaction of Ag precipitates the activation energy values obtained from the Kissinger and Ozawa methods are higher than that found in the literature for the Ag dissolution in Cu. This discrepancy seems to be related to the fact that the activation energy is influenced by the heating rate. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Custo energético de construção de uma instalação para armazenagem de feno

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Measurement of the semileptonic charge asymmetry in B0 meson mixing with the D0 detector

We present a measurement of the semileptonic mixing asymmetry for B0 mesons, asld, using two independent decay channels: B0→μ +D -X, with D -→K +π -π -; and B0→μ +D *-X, with D * -→D ̄0π -, D ̄0→ K +π - (and charge conjugate processes). We use a data sample corresponding to 10.4fb -1 of pp̄ collisions at √s=1.96TeV, collected with the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. We extract the charge asymmetries in these two channels as a function of the visible proper decay length of the B0 meson, correct for detector-related asymmetries using data-driven methods, and account for dilution from charge-symmetric processes using Monte Carlo simulation. The final measurement combines four signal visible proper decay length regions for each channel, yielding asld=[0.68±0.45(stat)±0.14(syst)]%. This is the single most precise measurement of this parameter, with uncertainties smaller than the current world average of B factory measurements. © 2012 American Physical Society.

Conversão grafema-fone para um sistema de reconhecimento de voz com suporte a grandes vocabulários para o português brasileiro

O processamento de voz tornou-se uma tecnologia cada vez mais baseada na modelagem automática de vasta quantidade de dados. Desta forma, o sucesso das pesquisas nesta área está diretamente ligado a existência de corpora de domínio público e outros recursos específicos, tal como um dicionário fonético. No Brasil, ao contrário do que acontece para a língua inglesa, por exemplo, não existe atualmente em domínio público um sistema de Reconhecimento Automático de Voz (RAV) para o Português Brasileiro com suporte a grandes vocabulários. Frente a este cenário, o trabalho tem como principal objetivo discutir esforços dentro da iniciativa FalaBrasil [1], criada pelo Laboratório de Processamento de Sinais (LaPS) da UFPA, apresentando pesquisas e softwares na área de RAV para o Português do Brasil. Mais especificamente, o presente trabalho discute a implementação de um sistema de reconhecimento de voz com suporte a grandes vocabulários para o Português do Brasil, utilizando a ferramenta HTK baseada em modelo oculto de Markov (HMM) e a criação de um módulo de conversão grafema-fone, utilizando técnicas de aprendizado de máquina.

Ferramenta computacional para dimensionamento e avaliação de desempenho de sistemas fotovoltaicos conectados à rede elétrica

Esta dissertação apresenta a utilização alguns modelos matemáticos disponíveis na literatura para representar as etapas de processamento da energia em um Sistema Fotovoltaico Conectado à Rede Elétrica (SFCR). Além disso, propõem-se dois modelos representativos do comportamento da potência elétrica em situações de limitação de potência do inversor e das perdas elétricas em função do carregamento. Todas as modelagens estão implementadas computacionalmente no ambiente GUIDE do MATLAB, o que permite a análise, auxilia no dimensionamento e viabiliza a simulação da operacionalidade e consequente contribuição energética de SFCRs com diferentes tamanhos relativos. No trabalho ainda é mostrada a interface da ferramenta computacional desenvolvida e a validação dos dados gerados pelo programa com dados medidos experimentalmente de SFCRs, a qual evidencia a eficácia dos modelos utilizados e a melhora na precisão. Ao final são mostradas estimativas energéticas para cinco cidades brasileiras, além de exemplos de análise dos dados gerados pela ferramenta computacional.

A quick review of 2D topographic traveltimes

O método de empilhamento Superfície de Reflexão Comum (SRC) foi originalmente introduzido como um método data-driven para simular seções afastamento-nulo a partir de dados sísmicos de reflexão pré-empilhados 2-D adquiridos ao longo de uma linha de aquisição reta. Este método está baseado em uma aproximação de tempos de trânsito hiperbólica de segunda ordem parametrizada com três atributos cinemáticos do campo de onda. Em dados terrestres, os efeitos topográficos desempenham um papel importante no processamento e imageamento de dados sísmicos. Assim, esta característica tem sido considerada recentemente pelo método SRC. Neste trabalho apresentamos uma revisão das aproximações de tempos de trânsito SRC que consideram topografia suave e rugosa. Adicionalmente, nós revemos também a aproximação de tempos de trânsito Multifoco para o caso da topografia rugosa. Por meio de um exemplo sintético simples, nós fornecemos finalmente as primeiras comparações entre as diferentes expressões de tempos de trânsito.

Balanço de energia de fluxo de CO2: cerrado da floresta estadual de Assis

Based on climatological data and energy flow, this paper analyzes the behavior observed in microclimatic an important remnant of cerrado in the São Paulo State. The seasonal climate is well marked, in the study area, with two climatic periods (one dry and one wet). The vegetation presents physiology as a function of water availability and the local thermal conditions and can be seen marked changes in the landscape due to the more or less presence of solar radiation. It’s important to understand the ecosystems behave in the context of global change. It has gained the attention of many researchers in the world.

Inactive Disease and Remission in Childhood-Onset Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Objective. To define inactive disease (ID) and clinical remission (CR) and to delineate variables that can be used to measure ID/CR in childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE). Methods. Delphi questionnaires were sent to an international group of pediatric rheumatologists. Respondents provided information about variables to be used in future algorithms to measure ID/CR. The usefulness of these variables was assessed in 35 children with ID and 31 children with minimally active lupus (MAL). Results. While ID reflects cSLE status at a specific point in time, CR requires the presence of ID for >6 months and considers treatment. There was consensus that patients in ID/CR can have <2 mild nonlimiting symptoms (i.e., fatigue, arthralgia, headaches, or myalgia) but not Raynaud's phenomenon, chest pain, or objective physical signs of cSLE; antinuclear antibody positivity and erythrocyte sedimentation rate elevation can be present. Complete blood count, renal function testing, and complement C3 all must be within the normal range. Based on consensus, only damage-related laboratory or clinical findings of cSLE are permissible with ID. The above parameters were suitable to differentiate children with ID/CR from those with MAL (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.85). Disease activity scores with or without the physician global assessment of disease activity and patient symptoms were well suited to differentiate children with ID from those with MAL. Conclusion. Consensus has been reached on common definitions of ID/CR with cSLE and relevant patient characteristics with ID/CR. Further studies must assess the usefulness of the data-driven candidate criteria for ID in cSLE.

Creazione e sviluppo di corpora multimediali. Nuove metodologie di ricerca nella traduzione audiovisiva

The construction and use of multimedia corpora has been advocated for a while in the literature as one of the expected future application fields of Corpus Linguistics. This research project represents a pioneering experience aimed at applying a data-driven methodology to the study of the field of AVT, similarly to what has been done in the last few decades in the macro-field of Translation Studies. This research was based on the experience of Forlixt 1, the Forlì Corpus of Screen Translation, developed at the University of Bologna’s Department of Interdisciplinary Studies in Translation, Languages and Culture. As a matter of fact, in order to quantify strategies of linguistic transfer of an AV product, we need to take into consideration not only the linguistic aspect of such a product but all the meaning-making resources deployed in the filmic text. Provided that one major benefit of Forlixt 1 is the combination of audiovisual and textual data, this corpus allows the user to access primary data for scientific investigation, and thus no longer rely on pre-processed material such as traditional annotated transcriptions. Based on this rationale, the first chapter of the thesis sets out to illustrate the state of the art of research in the disciplinary fields involved. The primary objective was to underline the main repercussions on multimedia texts resulting from the interaction of a double support, audio and video, and, accordingly, on procedures, means, and methods adopted in their translation. By drawing on previous research in semiotics and film studies, the relevant codes at work in visual and acoustic channels were outlined. Subsequently, we concentrated on the analysis of the verbal component and on the peculiar characteristics of filmic orality as opposed to spontaneous dialogic production. In the second part, an overview of the main AVT modalities was presented (dubbing, voice-over, interlinguistic and intra-linguistic subtitling, audio-description, etc.) in order to define the different technologies, processes and professional qualifications that this umbrella term presently includes. The second chapter focuses diachronically on various theories’ contribution to the application of Corpus Linguistics’ methods and tools to the field of Translation Studies (i.e. Descriptive Translation Studies, Polysystem Theory). In particular, we discussed how the use of corpora can favourably help reduce the gap existing between qualitative and quantitative approaches. Subsequently, we reviewed the tools traditionally employed by Corpus Linguistics in regard to the construction of traditional “written language” corpora, to assess whether and how they can be adapted to meet the needs of multimedia corpora. In particular, we reviewed existing speech and spoken corpora, as well as multimedia corpora specifically designed to investigate Translation. The third chapter reviews Forlixt 1's main developing steps, from a technical (IT design principles, data query functions) and methodological point of view, by laying down extensive scientific foundations for the annotation methods adopted, which presently encompass categories of pragmatic, sociolinguistic, linguacultural and semiotic nature. Finally, we described the main query tools (free search, guided search, advanced search and combined search) and the main intended uses of the database in a pedagogical perspective. The fourth chapter lists specific compilation criteria retained, as well as statistics of the two sub-corpora, by presenting data broken down by language pair (French-Italian and German-Italian) and genre (cinema’s comedies, television’s soapoperas and crime series). Next, we concentrated on the discussion of the results obtained from the analysis of summary tables reporting the frequency of categories applied to the French-Italian sub-corpus. The detailed observation of the distribution of categories identified in the original and dubbed corpus allowed us to empirically confirm some of the theories put forward in the literature and notably concerning the nature of the filmic text, the dubbing process and Italian dubbed language’s features. This was possible by looking into some of the most problematic aspects, like the rendering of socio-linguistic variation. The corpus equally allowed us to consider so far neglected aspects, such as pragmatic, prosodic, kinetic, facial, and semiotic elements, and their combination. At the end of this first exploration, some specific observations concerning possible macrotranslation trends were made for each type of sub-genre considered (cinematic and TV genre). On the grounds of this first quantitative investigation, the fifth chapter intended to further examine data, by applying ad hoc models of analysis. Given the virtually infinite number of combinations of categories adopted, and of the latter with searchable textual units, three possible qualitative and quantitative methods were designed, each of which was to concentrate on a particular translation dimension of the filmic text. The first one was the cultural dimension, which specifically focused on the rendering of selected cultural references and on the investigation of recurrent translation choices and strategies justified on the basis of the occurrence of specific clusters of categories. The second analysis was conducted on the linguistic dimension by exploring the occurrence of phrasal verbs in the Italian dubbed corpus and by ascertaining the influence on the adoption of related translation strategies of possible semiotic traits, such as gestures and facial expressions. Finally, the main aim of the third study was to verify whether, under which circumstances, and through which modality, graphic and iconic elements were translated into Italian from an original corpus of both German and French films. After having reviewed the main translation techniques at work, an exhaustive account of possible causes for their non-translation was equally provided. By way of conclusion, the discussion of results obtained from the distribution of annotation categories on the French-Italian corpus, as well as the application of specific models of analysis allowed us to underline possible advantages and drawbacks related to the adoption of a corpus-based approach to AVT studies. Even though possible updating and improvement were proposed in order to help solve some of the problems identified, it is argued that the added value of Forlixt 1 lies ultimately in having created a valuable instrument, allowing to carry out empirically-sound contrastive studies that may be usefully replicated on different language pairs and several types of multimedia texts. Furthermore, multimedia corpora can also play a crucial role in L2 and translation teaching, two disciplines in which their use still lacks systematic investigation.

Production of Z bosons in proton-proton collisions at root out s = 10 TeV: Expectations for early measurements at the ATLAS experiment

The production of the Z boson in proton-proton collisions at the LHC serves as a standard candle at the ATLAS experiment during early data-taking. The decay of the Z into an electron-positron pair gives a clean signature in the detector that allows for calibration and performance studies. The cross-section of ~ 1 nb allows first LHC measurements of parton density functions. In this thesis, simulations of 10 TeV collisions at the ATLAS detector are studied. The challenges for an experimental measurement of the cross-section with an integrated luminositiy of 100 pb−1 are discussed. In preparation for the cross-section determination, the single-electron efficiencies are determined via a simulation based method and in a test of a data-driven ansatz. The two methods show a very good agreement and differ by ~ 3% at most. The ingredients of an inclusive and a differential Z production cross-section measurement at ATLAS are discussed and their possible contributions to systematic uncertainties are presented. For a combined sample of signal and background the expected uncertainty on the inclusive cross-section for an integrated luminosity of 100 pb−1 is determined to 1.5% (stat) +/- 4.2% (syst) +/- 10% (lumi). The possibilities for single-differential cross-section measurements in rapidity and transverse momentum of the Z boson, which are important quantities because of the impact on parton density functions and the capability to check for non-pertubative effects in pQCD, are outlined. The issues of an efficiency correction based on electron efficiencies as function of the electron’s transverse momentum and pseudorapidity are studied. A possible alternative is demonstrated by expanding the two-dimensional efficiencies with the additional dimension of the invariant mass of the two leptons of the Z decay.

Biomedical engineering for healthy ageing. Predictive tools for falls

Falls are common and burdensome accidents among the elderly. About one third of the population aged 65 years or more experience at least one fall each year. Fall risk assessment is believed to be beneficial for fall prevention. This thesis is about prognostic tools for falls for community-dwelling older adults. We provide an overview of the state of the art. We then take different approaches: we propose a theoretical probabilistic model to investigate some properties of prognostic tools for falls; we present a tool whose parameters were derived from data of the literature; we train and test a data-driven prognostic tool. Finally, we present some preliminary results on prediction of falls through features extracted from wearable inertial sensors. Heterogeneity in validation results are expected from theoretical considerations and are observed from empirical data. Differences in studies design hinder comparability and collaborative research. According to the multifactorial etiology of falls, assessment on multiple risk factors is needed in order to achieve good predictive accuracy.