Efimov state predictions for He2-X triatomic systems

A scale independent approach that was proposed in [1], valid for weakly bound three-boson systems, is used to predict that the three-body molecular system 4He2-7Li supports an Efimov state [2] with binding energy close to 2.31 mK.

Scaling predictions for radii of weakly bound triatomic molecules

The mean-square radii of the triatomic molecules 4He 3, 4He 2- 6Li, 4He 2- 7Li, and 4He 2- 23Na were calculated using a renormalized three-body model with a pairwise Dirac-δ interaction, having as physical inputs only the values of the binding energies of the diatomic and triatomic molecules. Molecular three-body systems with bound subsystems were considered. The resultant data were analyzed in detail.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).

Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.

Accuracy of genomic predictions in Bos indicus (Nellore) cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Deer-Vehicle Crash Patterns Across Ecoregions in Michigan

Deer-vehicle collisions (DVCs) impact the economic and social well being of humans. We examined large-scale patterns behind DVCs across 3 ecoregions: Southern Lower Peninsula (SLP), Northern Lower Peninsula (NLP), and Upper Peninsula (UP) in Michigan. A 3 component conceptual model of DVCs with drivers, deer, and a landscape was the framework of analysis. The conceptual model was parameterized into a parsimonious mathematical model. The dependent variable was DVCs by county by ecoregion and the independent variables were percent forest cover, percent crop cover, mean annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and mean deer density index (DDI) by county. A discriminant function analysis of the 4 independent variables by counties by ecoregion indicated low misclassification, and provided support to the groupings by ecoregions. The global model and all sub-models were run for the 3 ecoregions and evaluated using information-theoretic approaches. Adjusted R2 values for the global model increased substantially from the SLP (0.21) to the NLP (0.54) to the UP (0.72). VMT and DDI were important variables across all 3 ecoregions. Percent crop cover played an important role in DVCs in the SLP and UP. The scale at which causal factors of DVCs operate appear to be finer in southern Michigan than in northern Michigan. Reduction of DVCs will likely occur only through a reduction in deer density, a reduction in traffic volume, or in modification of sitespecific factors, such as driver behavior, sight distance, highway features, or speed limits.

Changes in intrapopulation resource use patterns of an endangered raptor in response to a disease-mediated crash in prey abundance

1. A long-standing question in ecology is how natural populations respond to a changing environment. Emergent optimal foraging theory-based models for individual variation go beyond the population level and predict how its individuals would respond to disturbances that produce changes in resource availability. 2. Evaluating variations in resource use patterns at the intrapopulation level in wild populations under changing environmental conditions would allow to further advance in the research on foraging ecology and evolution by gaining a better idea of the underlying mechanisms explaining trophic diversity. 3. In this study, we use a large spatio-temporal scale data set (western continental Europe, 19682006) on the diet of Bonellis Eagle Aquila fasciata breeding pairs to analyse the predator trophic responses at the intrapopulation level to a prey population crash. In particular, we borrow metrics from studies on network structure and intrapopulation variation to understand how an emerging infectious disease [the rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)] that caused the density of the eagles primary prey (rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus) to dramatically drop across Europe impacted on resource use patterns of this endangered raptor. 4. Following the major RHD outbreak, substantial changes in Bonellis Eagles diet diversity and organisation patterns at the intrapopulation level took place. Dietary variation among breeding pairs was larger after than before the outbreak. Before RHD, there were no clusters of pairs with similar diets, but significant clustering emerged after RHD. Moreover, diets at the pair level presented a nested pattern before RHD, but not after. 5. Here, we reveal how intrapopulation patterns of resource use can quantitatively and qualitatively vary, given drastic changes in resource availability. 6. For the first time, we show that a pathogen of a prey species can indirectly impact the intrapopulation patterns of resource use of an endangered predator.

"Influence of lower-limb joint models on subject-specific musculoskeletal model predictions during gait" ( "modelli muscoloscheletrici personalizzati dell'arto inferiore: Analisi dell'effetto della modellazione dei giunti sulla predizione dei carichi agenti sul sistema scheletrico durante il cammino").

The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the influence of lower-limb joint models on musculoskeletal model predictions during gait. We started our analysis by using a baseline model, i.e., the state-of-the-art lower-limb model (spherical joint at the hip and hinge joints at the knee and ankle) created from MRI of a healthy subject in the Medical Technology Laboratory of the Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute. We varied the models of knee and ankle joints, including: knee- and ankle joints with mean instantaneous axis of rotation, universal joint at the ankle, scaled-generic-derived planar knee, subject-specific planar knee model, subject-specific planar ankle model, spherical knee, spherical ankle. The joint model combinations corresponding to 10 musculoskeletal models were implemented into a typical inverse dynamics problem, including inverse kinematics, inverse dynamics, static optimization and joint reaction analysis algorithms solved using the OpenSim software to calculate joint angles, joint moments, muscle forces and activations, joint reaction forces during 5 walking trials. The predicted muscle activations were qualitatively compared to experimental EMG, to evaluate the accuracy of model predictions. Planar joint at the knee, universal joint at the ankle and spherical joints at the knee and at the ankle produced appreciable variations in model predictions during gait trials. The planar knee joint model reduced the discrepancy between the predicted activation of the Rectus Femoris and the EMG (with respect to the baseline model), and the reduced peak knee reaction force was considered more accurate. The use of the universal joint, with the introduction of the subtalar joint, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG, and increased ankle and knee reaction forces were predicted. The spherical joints, in particular at the knee, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG. A substantial increase of joint reaction forces at all joints was predicted despite of the good agreement in joint kinematics with those of the baseline model. The introduction of the universal joint had a negative effect on the model predictions. The cause of this discrepancy is likely to be found in the definition of the subtalar joint and thus, in the particular subject’s anthropometry, used to create the model and define the joint pose. We concluded that the implementation of complex joint models do not have marked effects on the joint reaction forces during gait. Computed results were similar in magnitude and in pattern to those reported in literature. Nonetheless, the introduction of planar joint model at the knee had positive effect upon the predictions, while the use of spherical joint at the knee and/or at the ankle is absolutely unadvisable, because it predicted unrealistic joint reaction forces.

Cosmological predictions for a scalar tensor dark energy model by a dedicated Einstein-Boltzmann code

We have extended the Boltzmann code CLASS and studied a specific scalar tensor dark energy model: Induced Gravity

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

A model for radiofrequency electromagnetic field predictions at outdoor and indoor locations in the context of epidemiological research

We present a geospatial model to predict the radiofrequency electromagnetic field from fixed site transmitters for use in epidemiological exposure assessment. The proposed model extends an existing model toward the prediction of indoor exposure, that is, at the homes of potential study participants. The model is based on accurate operation parameters of all stationary transmitters of mobile communication base stations, and radio broadcast and television transmitters for an extended urban and suburban region in the Basel area (Switzerland). The model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlations and weighted Cohen's kappa (kappa) statistics between the model predictions and measurements obtained at street level, in the homes of volunteers, and in front of the windows of these homes. The correlation coefficients of the numerical predictions with street level measurements were 0.64, with indoor measurements 0.66, and with window measurements 0.67. The kappa coefficients were 0.48 (95%-confidence interval: 0.35-0.61) for street level measurements, 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.32-0.57) for indoor measurements, and 0.53 (95%-CI: 0.42-0.65) for window measurements. Although the modeling of shielding effects by walls and roofs requires considerable simplifications of a complex environment, we found a comparable accuracy of the model for indoor and outdoor points.

Postmortem whole-body computed tomography angiography visualizing vascular rupture in a case of fatal car crash

In addition to the increasingly significant role of multislice computed tomography in forensic pathology, the performance of whole-body computed tomography angiography provides outstanding results. In this case, we were able to detect multiple injuries of the parenchymal organs in the upper abdomen as well as lesions of the brain parenchyma and vasculature of the neck. The radiologic findings showed complete concordance with the autopsy and even supplemented the autopsy findings in areas that are difficult to access via a manual dissection (such as the vasculature of the neck). This case shows how minimally invasive computed tomography angiography can serve as an invaluable adjunct to the classic autopsy procedure.

Evaluation of Current Repair Criteria for Longitudinal Barrier with Crash Damage

To protect motorists and avoid tort liability, highway agencies expend considerable resources to repair damaged longitudinal barriers, such as w-beam guardrails. With limited funding available, though, highway agencies are unable to maintain all field-installed systems in the ideal as-built condition. Instead, these agencies focus on repairing only damage that has a detrimental effect on the safety performance of the barrier. The distinction between minor damage and more severe performance-altering damage, however, is not always clear. This paper presents a critical review of current United States (US) and Canadian criteria on whether to repair damaged longitudinal barrier. Barrier repair policies were obtained via comprehensive literature review and a survey of US and Canadian transportation agencies. In an analysis of the maintenance procedures of 40 US States and 8 Canadian transportation agencies, fewer than one-third of highway agencies were found to have quantitative measures to determine when barrier repair is warranted. In addition, no engineering basis for the current US barrier repair guidelines could be found. These findings underscore the importance of the development of quantitative barrier repair guidelines based on a strong technical foundation.