"Influence of lower-limb joint models on subject-specific musculoskeletal model predictions during gait" ( "modelli muscoloscheletrici personalizzati dell'arto inferiore: Analisi dell'effetto della modellazione dei giunti sulla predizione dei carichi agenti sul sistema scheletrico durante il cammino").

The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the influence of lower-limb joint models on musculoskeletal model predictions during gait. We started our analysis by using a baseline model, i.e., the state-of-the-art lower-limb model (spherical joint at the hip and hinge joints at the knee and ankle) created from MRI of a healthy subject in the Medical Technology Laboratory of the Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute. We varied the models of knee and ankle joints, including: knee- and ankle joints with mean instantaneous axis of rotation, universal joint at the ankle, scaled-generic-derived planar knee, subject-specific planar knee model, subject-specific planar ankle model, spherical knee, spherical ankle. The joint model combinations corresponding to 10 musculoskeletal models were implemented into a typical inverse dynamics problem, including inverse kinematics, inverse dynamics, static optimization and joint reaction analysis algorithms solved using the OpenSim software to calculate joint angles, joint moments, muscle forces and activations, joint reaction forces during 5 walking trials. The predicted muscle activations were qualitatively compared to experimental EMG, to evaluate the accuracy of model predictions. Planar joint at the knee, universal joint at the ankle and spherical joints at the knee and at the ankle produced appreciable variations in model predictions during gait trials. The planar knee joint model reduced the discrepancy between the predicted activation of the Rectus Femoris and the EMG (with respect to the baseline model), and the reduced peak knee reaction force was considered more accurate. The use of the universal joint, with the introduction of the subtalar joint, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG, and increased ankle and knee reaction forces were predicted. The spherical joints, in particular at the knee, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG. A substantial increase of joint reaction forces at all joints was predicted despite of the good agreement in joint kinematics with those of the baseline model. The introduction of the universal joint had a negative effect on the model predictions. The cause of this discrepancy is likely to be found in the definition of the subtalar joint and thus, in the particular subject’s anthropometry, used to create the model and define the joint pose. We concluded that the implementation of complex joint models do not have marked effects on the joint reaction forces during gait. Computed results were similar in magnitude and in pattern to those reported in literature. Nonetheless, the introduction of planar joint model at the knee had positive effect upon the predictions, while the use of spherical joint at the knee and/or at the ankle is absolutely unadvisable, because it predicted unrealistic joint reaction forces.

Cosmological predictions for a scalar tensor dark energy model by a dedicated Einstein-Boltzmann code

We have extended the Boltzmann code CLASS and studied a specific scalar tensor dark energy model: Induced Gravity

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

A model for radiofrequency electromagnetic field predictions at outdoor and indoor locations in the context of epidemiological research

We present a geospatial model to predict the radiofrequency electromagnetic field from fixed site transmitters for use in epidemiological exposure assessment. The proposed model extends an existing model toward the prediction of indoor exposure, that is, at the homes of potential study participants. The model is based on accurate operation parameters of all stationary transmitters of mobile communication base stations, and radio broadcast and television transmitters for an extended urban and suburban region in the Basel area (Switzerland). The model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlations and weighted Cohen's kappa (kappa) statistics between the model predictions and measurements obtained at street level, in the homes of volunteers, and in front of the windows of these homes. The correlation coefficients of the numerical predictions with street level measurements were 0.64, with indoor measurements 0.66, and with window measurements 0.67. The kappa coefficients were 0.48 (95%-confidence interval: 0.35-0.61) for street level measurements, 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.32-0.57) for indoor measurements, and 0.53 (95%-CI: 0.42-0.65) for window measurements. Although the modeling of shielding effects by walls and roofs requires considerable simplifications of a complex environment, we found a comparable accuracy of the model for indoor and outdoor points.

Postmortem whole-body computed tomography angiography visualizing vascular rupture in a case of fatal car crash

In addition to the increasingly significant role of multislice computed tomography in forensic pathology, the performance of whole-body computed tomography angiography provides outstanding results. In this case, we were able to detect multiple injuries of the parenchymal organs in the upper abdomen as well as lesions of the brain parenchyma and vasculature of the neck. The radiologic findings showed complete concordance with the autopsy and even supplemented the autopsy findings in areas that are difficult to access via a manual dissection (such as the vasculature of the neck). This case shows how minimally invasive computed tomography angiography can serve as an invaluable adjunct to the classic autopsy procedure.

Evaluation of Current Repair Criteria for Longitudinal Barrier with Crash Damage

To protect motorists and avoid tort liability, highway agencies expend considerable resources to repair damaged longitudinal barriers, such as w-beam guardrails. With limited funding available, though, highway agencies are unable to maintain all field-installed systems in the ideal as-built condition. Instead, these agencies focus on repairing only damage that has a detrimental effect on the safety performance of the barrier. The distinction between minor damage and more severe performance-altering damage, however, is not always clear. This paper presents a critical review of current United States (US) and Canadian criteria on whether to repair damaged longitudinal barrier. Barrier repair policies were obtained via comprehensive literature review and a survey of US and Canadian transportation agencies. In an analysis of the maintenance procedures of 40 US States and 8 Canadian transportation agencies, fewer than one-third of highway agencies were found to have quantitative measures to determine when barrier repair is warranted. In addition, no engineering basis for the current US barrier repair guidelines could be found. These findings underscore the importance of the development of quantitative barrier repair guidelines based on a strong technical foundation.

Comparison of Roadside Crash Injury Metrics using Event Data Recorders

The occupant impact velocity (OIV) and acceleration severity index (ASI) are competing measures of crash severity used to assess occupant injury risk in full-scale crash tests involving roadside safety hardware, e.g. guardrail. Delta-V, or the maximum change in vehicle velocity, is the traditional metric of crash severity for real world crashes. This study compares the ability of the OIV, ASI, and delta-V to discriminate between serious and non-serious occupant injury in real world frontal collisions. Vehicle kinematics data from event data recorders (EDRs) were matched with detailed occupant injury information for 180 real world crashes. Cumulative probability of injury risk curves were generated using binary logistic regression for belted and unbelted data subsets. By comparing the available fit statistics and performing a separate ROC curve analysis, the more computationally intensive OIV and ASI were found to offer no significant predictive advantage over the simpler delta-V.

Accurate Predictions of Water Cluster Formation, (H2O)n=2-10

An efficient mixed molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics model has been applied to the water cluster system. The use of the MP2 method and correlation consistent basis sets, with appropriate correction for BSSE, allows for the accurate calculation of electronic and free energies for the formation of clusters of 2−10 water molecules. This approach reveals new low energy conformers for (H2O)n=7,9,10. The water heptamer conformers comprise five different structural motifs ranging from a three-dimensional prism to a quasi-planar book structure. A prism-like structure is favored energetically at low temperatures, but a chair-like structure is the global Gibbs free energy minimum past 200 K. The water nonamers exhibit less complexity with all the low energy structures shaped like a prism. The decamer has 30 conformers that are within 2 kcal/mol of the Gibbs free energy minimum structure at 298 K. These structures are categorized into four conformer classes, and a pentagonal prism is the most stable structure from 0 to 320 K. Results can be used as benchmark values for empirical water models and density functionals, and the method can be applied to larger water clusters.

Comparison of CBS-QB3, CBS-APNO, and G3 predictions of gas phase deprotonation data

The G3, CBS-QB3, and CBS-APNO methods have been used to calculate ΔH and ΔG values for deprotonation of seventeen gas-phase reactions where the experimental values are reported to be accurate within one kcal/mol. For these reactions, the mean absolute deviation of these three methods from experiment is 0.84 to 1.26 kcal/mol, and the root-mean-square deviation for ΔG and ΔH is 1.43 and 1.49 kcal/mol for the CBS-QB3 method, 1.06 and 1.14 kcal/mol for the CBS-APNO method, and 1.16 and 1.28 for the G3 method. The high accuracy of these methods makes them reliable for calculating gas-phase deprotonation reactions, and allows them to serve as a valuable check on the accuracy of experimental data reported in the National Institutes of Standards and Technology database.

Comparison of density functional theory predictions of gas-phase deprotonation data

The SVWN, BVWN, BP86, BLYP, BPW91, B3P86, B3LYP, B3PW91, B1LYP, mPW1PW, and PBE1PBE density functionals, as implemented in Gaussian 98 and Gaussian 03, were used to calculate ΔG0 and ΔH0 values for 17 deprotonation reactions where the experimental values are accurately known. The PBE1PBE and B3P86 functionals are shown to compute results with accuracy comparable to more computationally intensive compound model chemistries. A rationale for the relative performance of various functionals is explored.

CCSD(T), W1, and other model chemistry predictions for gas-phase deprotonation reactions

A series of CCSD(T) single-point calculations on MP4(SDQ) geometries and the W1 model chemistry method have been used to calculate ΔH° and ΔG° values for the deprotonation of 17 gas-phase reactions where the experimental values have reported accuracies within 1 kcal/mol. These values have been compared with previous calculations using the G3 and CBS model chemistries and two DFT methods. The most accurate CCSD(T) method uses the aug-cc-pVQZ basis set. Extrapolation of the aug-cc-pVTZ and aug-cc-pVQZ results yields the most accurate agreement with experiment, with a standard deviation of 0.58 kcal/mol for ΔG° and 0.70 kcal/mol for ΔH°. Standard deviations from experiment for ΔG° and ΔH° for the W1 method are 0.95 and 0.83 kcal/mol, respectively. The G3 and CBS-APNO results are competitive with W1 and are much less expensive. Any of the model chemistry methods or the CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ method can serve as a valuable check on the accuracy of experimental data reported in the National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) database.

Comparison of Model Chemistry and Density Functional Theory Thermochemical Predictions with Experiment for Formation of Ionic Clusters of the Ammonium Cation Complexed with Water and Ammonia; Atmospheric Implications

The G2, G3, CBS-QB3, and CBS-APNO model chemistry methods and the B3LYP, B3P86, mPW1PW, and PBE1PBE density functional theory (DFT) methods have been used to calculate ΔH° and ΔG° values for ionic clusters of the ammonium ion complexed with water and ammonia. Results for the clusters NH4+(NH3)n and NH4+(H2O)n, where n = 1−4, are reported in this paper and compared against experimental values. Agreement with the experimental values for ΔH° and ΔG° for formation of NH4+(NH3)n clusters is excellent. Comparison between experiment and theory for formation of the NH4+(H2O)n clusters is quite good considering the uncertainty in the experimental values. The four DFT methods yield excellent agreement with experiment and the model chemistry methods when the aug-cc-pVTZ basis set is used for energetic calculations and the 6-31G* basis set is used for geometries and frequencies. On the basis of these results, we predict that all ions in the lower troposphere will be saturated with at least one complete first hydration shell of water molecules.

Comparison of CBS-QB3, CBS-APNO, G2, and G3 thermochemical predictions with experiment for formation of ionic clusters of hydronium and hydroxide ions complexed with water

The GAUSSIAN 2, GAUSSIAN 3, complete basis set-QB3, and complete basis set-APNO methods have been used to calculate ΔH∘ and ΔG∘ values for ionic clusters of hydronium and hydroxide ions complexed with water. Results for the clusters H3O+(H2O)n andOH−(H2O)n, where n=1–4 are reported in this paper, and compared against experimental values contained in the National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) database. Agreement with experiment is excellent for the three ab initio methods for formation of these clusters. The high accuracy of these methods makes them reliable for calculating energetics for the formation of ionic clusters containing water. In addition this allows them to serve as a valuable check on the accuracy of experimental data reported in the NIST database, and makes them useful tools for addressing unresolved issues in atmospheric chemistry.

Accurate Predictions of Water Cluster Formation, (H2O)n=2−10

An efficient mixed molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics model has been applied to the water cluster system. The use of the MP2 method and correlation consistent basis sets, with appropriate correction for BSSE, allows for the accurate calculation of electronic and free energies for the formation of clusters of 2−10 water molecules. This approach reveals new low energy conformers for (H2O)n=7,9,10. The water heptamer conformers comprise five different structural motifs ranging from a three-dimensional prism to a quasi-planar book structure. A prism-like structure is favored energetically at low temperatures, but a chair-like structure is the global Gibbs free energy minimum past 200 K. The water nonamers exhibit less complexity with all the low energy structures shaped like a prism. The decamer has 30 conformers that are within 2 kcal/mol of the Gibbs free energy minimum structure at 298 K. These structures are categorized into four conformer classes, and a pentagonal prism is the most stable structure from 0 to 320 K. Results can be used as benchmark values for empirical water models and density functionals, and the method can be applied to larger water clusters.