980 resultados para Conjectural Variations Model
Resumo:
Here, the pelagic carbonate system and the ?13C signature of dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC) were investigated in a tidal basin of the southern North Sea, the Jade Bay, with respect to tidal cycles and a transect towards the North Sea in winter time (January and November, 2010). Physical parameters, major and trace elements, and nutrient concentrations were considered, too. Primary production and pelagic organic matter respiration were negligible during winter time. Both, the compositional variations on the transects as well as during the tidal cycles indicate the mixing of North Sea with fresh water. The combined spatial co-variations of different parameters indicate an introduction of fresh water that was enriched in DI12C, metabolites (e.g., ammonia), protons, and dissolved redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Mn2+). During the January campaign, the discharge via the flood gates was limited due to ice cover of the hinterland drainage ditches, allowing for an observation of tidal variations without significant mixing contributions from surface water discharges. Considering a binary mixing model with North Sea and fresh water as end-members, the extrapolated fresh water end-member composition for this campaign is estimated to contain about 3.8 mmol/kg DIC , and enhanced concentrations of NH4+, Mn2+, and protons compared to North Sea water. The fast temporal response of dissolved geochemical tracers on tidal variations in the Jade Bay indicates a continuous supply of a fresh water component. The measured composition of fresh waters entering the Jade Bay via flood gates (end of October, 2010) did not match the values estimated by the binary mixing model. Therefore, the overall fresh water component likely is a mixture between sources originating from flood gates and (in January) dominating submarine groundwater discharge entering the Jade Bay. This model is consistent with the results obtained during the November campaign, when a more important contribution from flood gates is expected and a more variable fresh water end-member is estimated. The co-variations of the concentrations and the stable carbon isotope composition of DIC are applied to evaluate possible superimposed sink-source-transformation processes in the coastal waters and a general co-variation scheme is suggested.
Resumo:
Time series analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variables in a late Pleistocene record from the northwest Pacific show the complex relationship of the response of various segments of the climate system to changes in the earth's orbit. Most variance spectra of time series from this subarctic record contain frequency peaks with periods corresponding to at least one of the major orbital components of eccentricity, obliquity, or precession. Although the radiolarian faunal (water mass) assemblages have prominent spectral peaks with 41,000-year periods which are coherent with obliquity at this frequency, only the Transitional faunal assemblage contains variance focused at a frequency corresponding to the 100,000-year period of eccentricity. Three of these faunal time series also show variance concentrated at a frequency with a 20,000-year period. These three time series are not coherent at a 20,000-year frequency with either of the dominant spectral peaks of precession. They are coherent, however, with variations in the second harmonic of the obliquity cycle. Changes in obliquity apparently affect siliceous faunal abundances in the northwest Pacific region of this high-latitude site more than variations in eccentricity or precession. Maxima in the time series of quartz abundance occur during low values of eccentricity and high glacial ice volume. Because atmospheric winds serve as the major source of supply of quartz to the sediments at this site, these high quartz values reflect increased aridity at the source region. Except for short periods during interglacials, the characteristics of the surface waters in this region of the subarctic Pacific during much of the last 460,000 years were similar to those which exist today in the Sea of Okhotsk. The spectrum of winter sea surface temperature estimates, derived from siliceous microfaunal abundances, contains dominant frequency peaks at periods of 100,000, 41,000, and 23,000 years which are coherent with eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, respectively. Based upon the relationship of the Subarctic Front with the dominance of specific faunal asemblages, the front was positioned south of its present-day location throughout much of the late Pleistocene.
Resumo:
The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. The possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. Solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. In addition, It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.
Resumo:
A mathematical model for long-term, three-dimensional shoreline evolution is developed. The combined effects of variations of sea level; wave refraction and diffraction; loss of sand by density currents during storms, by rip currents, and by wind; bluff erosion and berm accretion; effects of manmade structures such as long groin or navigational structures; and beach nourishment are all taken into account. A computer program is developed with various subroutines which permit modification as the state-of-the-art progresses. The program is applied to a test case at Holland Harbor, Michigan. (Author).
Resumo:
The Fear Survey Schedule-III (FSS-III) was administered to a total of 5491 students in Australia, East Germany, Great Britain, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, and Venezuela, and submitted to the multiple group method of confirmatory analysis (MGM) in order to determine the cross-national dimensional constancy of the five-factor model of self-assessed fears originally established in Dutch, British, and Canadian samples. The model comprises fears of bodily injury-illness-death, agoraphobic fears, social fears, fears of sexual and aggressive scenes, and harmless animals fears. Close correspondence between the factors was demonstrated across national samples. In each country, the corresponding scales were internally consistent, were intercorrelated at magnitudes comparable to those yielded in the original samples, and yielded (in 93% of the total number of 55 comparisons) sex differences in line with the usual finding (higher scores for females). In each country, the relatively largest sex differences were obtained on harmless animals fears. The organization of self-assessed fears is sufficiently similar across nations to warrant the use of the same weight matrix (scoring key) for the FSS-III in the different countries and to make cross-national comparisons feasible. This opens the way to further studies that attempt to predict (on an a priori basis) cross-national variations in fear levels with dimensions of national cultures. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.